2021 Draft Thread

[clyde21]

Color me unimpressed by Moses Moody.
When I watch his tape nothing except his 3 point shooting jumps out at me. He's not a particularly explosive player, not that great of playmaker, not great at blowing past his guy and going to the hoop. To me drafting him at #7 would be like taking Robert Covington at #7, a solid 3 and d, but not much more. He won't be a star in this league.

not sure how anyone can watch Moody and not come out away with 'this guy is already an NBA player'.

not everything is about how high someone can jump or how quick they are. Moody has supreme BBIQ, an NBA-level physical profile/versatility, and has the makings of a legitimate two-way player whos a GREAT fit in our scheme as a slasher, off-screen shooter and switchable defender 1-3.

his path to being a great 3+D swingman is clear...anything more is just icing on the cake.

The guy is going to be in the nba. His wash out level is probably the lowest due to his skillset. The thing is that players like him come every year. He's predicted all over in mocks. He's in conversation for the 7th cuz he is a top 14 prospect, so if I truly like him at 14 I would take him at 7, but I dont. I question his efficiency due to he shot 42% from the field. That is too low but somehow he is this great slasher and shooter??? I see good length that is streaky. I see him and say this is a person the Kings usually draft

you keep talkin about players u never watched, stop.

[FNQ]

Klay is just a 3pt shooter, but Burks scores at every level and has defensive potential

Kings actually have made good picks (Fox, Halliburton) while botching the #2 pick on a big man.. it does sound kinda familiar tbh

[GSWFan1994]

Did Kuminga already worked out for us? Does anyone have this info? I searched on the internet but couldn't find it.

[mos_def]

not sure how anyone can watch Moody and not come out away with 'this guy is already an NBA player'.

not everything is about how high someone can jump or how quick they are. Moody has supreme BBIQ, an NBA-level physical profile/versatility, and has the makings of a legitimate two-way player whos a GREAT fit in our scheme as a slasher, off-screen shooter and switchable defender 1-3.

his path to being a great 3+D swingman is clear...anything more is just icing on the cake.

The guy is going to be in the nba. His wash out level is probably the lowest due to his skillset. The thing is that players like him come every year. He's predicted all over in mocks. He's in conversation for the 7th cuz he is a top 14 prospect, so if I truly like him at 14 I would take him at 7, but I dont. I question his efficiency due to he shot 42% from the field. That is too low but somehow he is this great slasher and shooter??? I see good length that is streaky. I see him and say this is a person the Kings usually draft

you keep talkin about players u never watched, stop.

I dont watch Kings games.

[mos_def]

Wagner plays alot like Dario Saric. Me like alot

[FNQ]

Did Kuminga already worked out for us? Does anyone have this info? I searched on the internet but couldn't find it.

Doubt he did, doubt he will. If it made the news cycle, it would reinforce the idea that his stock is dropping. Anyone taking him outside the top 5 will likely have to do so without a personal workout

He may have a “pro day” and allow anyone to come, so as to not appear weak, but I really doubt the Warriors host him

[EvanZ]

I'm probably one of the few here that did like LaMelo coming into the draft.

A lot of us wanted Melo.

Really, you KNEW he was going to shoot a lot better in the NBA than he shot at any other level of basketball?

If he shot sub-25% from 3 like his brother, he would have been a bust. He may shoot 27% next year for all we know.

Uh, his brother Lonzo has become a good 3pt shooter. I thought that was a good sign. Also LaMelo was a much better free throw shooter than Lonzo, near 80%. I thought his shot wouldn't happen as quickly as it has, but that didn't scare me away. Dude was clear #1 on my board followed by Ant. Had both those guys a tier ahead of Wiseman.

[EvanZ]

Folks, some of us post our boards so we have a record of our pre-Draft takes. You can try to spin some kind of revisionist draft history, but if I had LaMelo #1 and you didn't...that's your mistake not mine. Don't come here and tell me some bs like "Everyone wanted Wiseman" or "Everyone thought Melo was a bad fit". Nah, not even close.

[HiRez]

One important question is just how much do the Warriors value 3 point shooting with these picks. In their last year of stats:

Mitchell 44.7%
Jalen Johnson 44.4%
Kispert 44.0%
Springer 43.5%
Murphy 43.3%
Duarte 42.4%
McBride 41.4%
---
Primo 38.1%
Hyland 37.1%
Moody 35.8%
Wagner 34.3%
---
Giddey 29.3%
Bouknight 29.3%
Williams 29.1%
Barnes 27.5%
Keon Johnson 27.1%
Kuminga 24.6%

Of course there's many factors and they aren't going to pick a guy just based on 1 stat, but the 3 ball has to weigh especially heavily for this team. Bouknight's 3 point efficiency dropped off dramatically with higher volume between his freshman and sophomore years, while Mitchell's efficiency actually increased along with increasingly higher volumes from year 1 to year 3. Projecting how these guys shoot 3s to the NBA isn't easy but this is what we have to go on right now and it will be critical in evaluating.

[killmongrel]

predictable =/= obvious.

predictable picks would be Davion/Kispert...i almost expect Myers to do that.

but that doesnt mean those are the obvious picks. Moody would be an obvious pick.

Wiseman clearly wasn't the obvious pick to anyone that understands modern NBA or what this team has asked of its bigs historically in our scheme.

Yes, my bad, predictable. The FO acting in a predictable way. Most people predicted the FO to pick Wiseman. That's what they did.

I remember early this year I posted that what was gonna happen with Oubre was that they weren't gonna trade him at the deadline and they were gonna let him walk in the off season. So far half way through that. And it's not that difficult to predict. Just a matter of knowing how this FO has operated these past couple years. They might get a TPE for him but I doubt they use it or maybe they'll use some of it.

And because of their pattern of predictability, they will be taking Moody with the 7th pick. Or at least he's the most likely.

I hope you are right. They also looked like they were obsessed with athleticism last year. I hope they do not choose another guy because he is a better athlete.

It's like I was saying earlier. While it may not be obvious to the FO who the best choice is, it is obvious the direction in which the FO is gonna go this year. Unless the potential is just way too tempting to pass up, they're definitely going with fit/IQ/shooting/etc, this year at the 7th pick. Unless one of the top 6 falls to them, it's most likely going to be Moody. Maybe Wagner. There aren't any players after the top 6 where the player's potential "ceiling" is blowing away the rest of the competition. So the FO is gonna go with the "safe" choice with upside.

One of the things you can assume with this FO is that they do not want a repeat of last year. Regardless of if you're bullish or bearish on Wiseman, it was still not a good look. The FO can't go into this season looking like their 7th pick is another Wiseman. They already know how the fanbase feels about Steph's "window". They hear Draymond dropping hints. So they know they have to surround them with players who can contribute. That's why Moody checks all those boxes.

[killmongrel]

A lot of us wanted Melo.

Really, you KNEW he was going to shoot a lot better in the NBA than he shot at any other level of basketball?

If he shot sub-25% from 3 like his brother, he would have been a bust. He may shoot 27% next year for all we know.

In fact I was extremely impressed by his passing, his quickness in decision making and his bbIQ.
I didn't expect him to be so good so fast though. I viewed him as a project, but Wiseman was also a project (and still is) and he didn't show the feel for the game that LaMelo clearly had. Also, I think star PGs and wings have more impact on winning than bigs these days, so for me LaMelo always had the highest ceiling of the two.
That's why he was my favorite prospect, even if I knew he could bust. I remember a lot of people on RealGM underestimated him because of LaVar and this wasn't fair to him.
I have to say I was impressed by his consistency in his rookie season. I knew he could be very very good, but not so fast.

In the draft we're talking about potential and Bouknight has the potential to be a Donovan Mitchell / Jamal Murray /Zach LaVine level player. He can also be Jordan Clarkson or Jordan Poole, but we don't know. He does have star potential, which doesn't mean he's guaranteed to be an all star. I don't see other players available at 7 with more star potential.
And he's not even my favorite player at 7, he doesn't really fit, but he's probably the BPA.

Which players would you take with both picks, Lars?

I'd go with a "safe" pick and a high ceiling pick. So it could be Moses Moody at 7 and who's available of Keon Johnson, Ziaire, Giddey, Sengun at 14 or Bouknight at 7 and Wagner/Mitchell/Duarte/Kispert/Moody at 14.
If Kuminga falls to 7 I'd draft him even if I'm not particularly high on him because he's got the highest trade value and highest potential and draft one of the safest picks at 14.
In any case it would be nice to draft at least a player that can play SF as an insurance if Wiggins is traded or for the post-Wiggins era in 2 seasons (in case he's not re-signed).
I'd rather not draft another center, even if I wouldn't mind Sengun at 14, as I prefer to get a proven player at that position. There's already Wiseman as a project there, I don't want two. Give me Marquese Chriss if no one else is available.

100% agree with all of this. I'm willing to bet that's how the FO has their board at the moment. They'll go with the safe bet at 7 and then draft potential at 14. Like you mentioned, the thing that will switch it up is if somebody in the top 6 falls to them. Then they go for the safe/contributing pick at 14.

In regards to if they draft a center at 14 like a Sengun or Kai Jones, I am confident the FO has no intention of doing that. Just for optics sake, it already looks bad. Like you said, why draft another project with Wiseman already there? They're definitely going for a Zaire, Giddey, or whoever is still available if they do not trade one or two of these picks.

[shazam_guy]

Seems to me I posted something about "save pick at 7, take a swing at 14", and received a backwash of "Take the BPA at 7!", which then proved a great deal less simplistic, since nobody could really agree what BPA actually means, especially in the Ws current situation.

But, yeah. Draft someone ready to play minutes at 7 (but not Davion if I have my choice). It's a deep draft, so take a swing at someone with more upside like Springer or Garuba or Sengun or Murphy if they're available at 14. And I think that's exactly what they'll do if they don't trade down or trade out.

[GSWFan1994]

Looney / Wiseman
Green / JTA
Wiggins / Kuminga
Klay / Ziaire
Curry / Poole

Seems, honestly, outstanding to me.

[killmongrel]

Seems to me I posted something about "save pick at 7, take a swing at 14", and received a backwash of "Take the BPA at 7!", which then proved a great deal less simplistic, since nobody could really agree what BPA actually means, especially in the Ws current situation.

But, yeah. Draft someone ready to play minutes at 7 (but not Davion if I have my choice). It's a deep draft, so take a swing at someone with more upside like Springer or Garuba or Sengun or Murphy if they're available at 14. And I think that's exactly what they'll do if they don't trade down or trade out.

If they're trading for contributors at 14, I really like the idea of going for the Knicks' 19/21 picks. I think Duarte and Murphy are available there. But a lot of you don't like the idea of that many rookies. Which I don't necessarily disagree with.

[ChuckDurn]

Interesting news today, that could affect the Warriors…..

Baylor’s Jared Butler has been cleared to play in the NBA. He has a heart issue that required him to be cleared originally by the NCAA before he could play in college, and then by the NBA. Because he hadn’t been cleared yet, he wasn’t able to take part in the combine, and hasn’t worked out for any NBA teams.

If you ask me, he’s actually a better prospect than his backcourt partner (Mitchell). He is a consistent scorer and creator, with a reliable shot; last year he shot over 41% from 3, but he progressed from 35% to 38% to 41% in his 3 years in college, so it doesn’t appear to be a fluke as much as it is believable improvement. Plus, he’s a consistent 78% free throw shooter, which isn’t elite, but is very solid. He’s listed at 6’3”, and is noticeably taller than Mitchell, so it’s probably legitimate. He’s a good defender, though not as “game-changing” as Mitchell. But with his added height (and at 195 pounds, he’s sufficiently strong), he’s not going to be as one-dimensional and limited to guarding PG’s as Mitchell might be.

He hasn’t been shown very high on most mock drafts, and some of that was probably uncertainty about how his medical were going to come out. But I suspect over the next couple of weeks we’ll see those boards get revised, with him moving up. I would definitely consider him a candidate at 14, and if both he and Mitchell were there, I’d lean toward Butler of the two.

(Note: Butler is going to turn 21 on August 25th, so he’s almost 2 full years younger than Mitchell, who turns 23 on September 5th.)

[HiRez]

Interesting news today, that could affect the Warriors…..

Baylor’s Jared Butler has been cleared to play in the NBA. He has a heart issue that required him to be cleared originally by the NCAA before he could play in college, and then by the NBA. Because he hadn’t been cleared yet, he wasn’t able to take part in the combine, and hasn’t worked out for any NBA teams.

If you ask me, he’s actually a better prospect than his backcourt partner (Mitchell). He is a consistent scorer and creator, with a reliable shot; last year he shot over 41% from 3, but he progressed from 35% to 38% to 41% in his 3 years in college, so it doesn’t appear to be a fluke as much as it is believable improvement. Plus, he’s a consistent 78% free throw shooter, which isn’t elite, but is very solid. He’s listed at 6’3”, and is noticeably taller than Mitchell, so it’s probably legitimate. He’s a good defender, though not as “game-changing” as Mitchell. But with his added height (and at 195 pounds, he’s sufficiently strong), he’s not going to be as one-dimensional and limited to guarding PG’s as Mitchell might be.

He hasn’t been shown very high on most mock drafts, and some of that was probably uncertainty about how his medical were going to come out. But I suspect over the next couple of weeks we’ll see those boards get revised, with him moving up. I would definitely consider him a candidate at 14, and if both he and Mitchell were there, I’d lean toward Butler of the two.

(Note: Butler is going to turn 21 on August 25th, so he’s almost 2 full years younger than Mitchell, who turns 23 on September 5th.)

Good points, maybe a trade-down candidate though since it seems he'd be quite a reach even at #14 -- most mocks have him end of 1st round or early 2nd (though if heart condition is proven not as serious maybe he starts rising). I still think everyone is dismissing Mitchell's defense a little too much based only on his height though. He did fine defending plenty of larger/taller players in college, that's what I mean when I say it seems like he plays a bit larger than measurements indicate, as well as having very decent hops/athleticism.

[clyde21]

One important question is just how much do the Warriors value 3 point shooting with these picks. In their last year of stats:

Mitchell 44.7%
Jalen Johnson 44.4%
Kispert 44.0%
Springer 43.5%
Murphy 43.3%
Duarte 42.4%
McBride 41.4%
---
Primo 38.1%
Hyland 37.1%
Moody 35.8%
Wagner 34.3%
---
Giddey 29.3%
Bouknight 29.3%
Williams 29.1%
Barnes 27.5%
Keon Johnson 27.1%
Kuminga 24.6%

Of course there's many factors and they aren't going to pick a guy just based on 1 stat, but the 3 ball has to weigh especially heavily for this team. Bouknight's 3 point efficiency dropped off dramatically with higher volume between his freshman and sophomore years, while Mitchell's efficiency actually increased along with increasingly higher volumes from year 1 to year 3. Projecting how these guys shoot 3s to the NBA isn't easy but this is what we have to go on right now and it will be critical in evaluating.

u can't just list % of 3 pt shots and call it a day, how big is the sample side, attempts per game, what is the shot versatility, what kinda shots are they taking. range, difficulty, etc...lists like this are not really usable.

and we already discussed Mitchell's 'efficiency'..which u ignored.

[clyde21]

final big board...not warriors specific, just in general.

T1
1 Evan Mobley
2 Cade Cunningham

T2
3 Jalen Green
4 Jalen Suggs

T3
5 Moses Moody
6 Jalen Johnson
7 Jaden Springer
8 Scottie Barnes
9 Jonathan Kuminga
10 Franz Wagner
11 Alperen Sengun
12 Usman Garuba
13 Brandon Boston Jr.
14 Keon Johnson

T4
15 Sharife Cooper
16 Jared Butler
17 Scottie Lewis
18 Josh Christopher
19 JT Thor
20 Joe Wieskamp
21 Chris Duarte
22 James Bouknight
23 Joshua Primo
24 Miles McBride
25 Trey Murphy
26 Josh Giddey
27 Isaiah Jackson
28 Corey Kispert
29 Davion Mitchell
30 Kai Jones
31 Ziaire Williams
32 Isaiah Todd

[clyde21]

Interesting news today, that could affect the Warriors…..

Baylor’s Jared Butler has been cleared to play in the NBA. He has a heart issue that required him to be cleared originally by the NCAA before he could play in college, and then by the NBA. Because he hadn’t been cleared yet, he wasn’t able to take part in the combine, and hasn’t worked out for any NBA teams.

If you ask me, he’s actually a better prospect than his backcourt partner (Mitchell). He is a consistent scorer and creator, with a reliable shot; last year he shot over 41% from 3, but he progressed from 35% to 38% to 41% in his 3 years in college, so it doesn’t appear to be a fluke as much as it is believable improvement. Plus, he’s a consistent 78% free throw shooter, which isn’t elite, but is very solid. He’s listed at 6’3”, and is noticeably taller than Mitchell, so it’s probably legitimate. He’s a good defender, though not as “game-changing” as Mitchell. But with his added height (and at 195 pounds, he’s sufficiently strong), he’s not going to be as one-dimensional and limited to guarding PG’s as Mitchell might be.

He hasn’t been shown very high on most mock drafts, and some of that was probably uncertainty about how his medical were going to come out. But I suspect over the next couple of weeks we’ll see those boards get revised, with him moving up. I would definitely consider him a candidate at 14, and if both he and Mitchell were there, I’d lean toward Butler of the two.

(Note: Butler is going to turn 21 on August 25th, so he’s almost 2 full years younger than Mitchell, who turns 23 on September 5th.)

this right here ^

Butler is a better prospect than Mitchell, and well worth the pick at 14 depending on who's available if we go that route. that's the PG we should be targeting on that team.

[HiRez]

One important question is just how much do the Warriors value 3 point shooting with these picks. In their last year of stats:

Mitchell 44.7%
Jalen Johnson 44.4%
Kispert 44.0%
Springer 43.5%
Murphy 43.3%
Duarte 42.4%
McBride 41.4%
---
Primo 38.1%
Hyland 37.1%
Moody 35.8%
Wagner 34.3%
---
Giddey 29.3%
Bouknight 29.3%
Williams 29.1%
Barnes 27.5%
Keon Johnson 27.1%
Kuminga 24.6%

Of course there's many factors and they aren't going to pick a guy just based on 1 stat, but the 3 ball has to weigh especially heavily for this team. Bouknight's 3 point efficiency dropped off dramatically with higher volume between his freshman and sophomore years, while Mitchell's efficiency actually increased along with increasingly higher volumes from year 1 to year 3. Projecting how these guys shoot 3s to the NBA isn't easy but this is what we have to go on right now and it will be critical in evaluating.

u can't just list % of 3 pt shots and call it a day, how big is the sample side, attempts per game, what is the shot versatility, what kinda shots are they taking. range, difficulty, etc...lists like this are not really usable.

and we already discussed Mitchell's 'efficiency'..which u ignored.

Bro, I'm not advocating for Mitchell here, or anyone in particular, he just happened to come out on top of the list. I used him and Bouknight as opposite examples of correlating efficiency to volume -- just to show how difficult it is to project to the next level. Has nothing to do with him other than he's one guy on the long list of players the Warriors might be looking at. Range? Uh...3 pointers, that gives you a good idea of range? Samples, volume? It varies but most of these guys are putting up 4-6 attempts per game. Only a few are under 3 and AFAIK no one is in extreme Steph Curry range like 7+, so they're pretty similar in most cases. Most all played full schedules of games. And I did say this is just one stat, obviously you have to dig deeper—which you are welcome to do—to do a full analysis.