Evan Mobley - USC

[tidho]

...
I think the eye test shows Mobley isn’t a particularly great rebounder and that he gets bodied a bit, but I think what he does helps a team considerably more than what a typical rebounder offers...

yes, the eye test shows that college boys are able to shove him all over the place. this portion of your text is admitting exactly the premise that you're trying to invalidate.

he is disruptive as a rim protector (although even then its amazing how may college guards you see spinning into the paint right into the guy, lol). regardless he closes on jump shooters really well, moves his feet well to position himself not to foul, and has elite length (even by NBA standards) to get up an contest. what he doesn't do is rebound all that well.

not sure if you've been around long enough, but he reminds me of Hot Rod (who's numbers would be better if he hadn't been on a stacked team). just not convinced Mobley is going to be a significant offensive player. he's a face up big without the handle to initiate, he's not strong enough to work inside and seems to shy away from contact anyway, he does a really nice job passing out of double teams but i'm not sure anyone in the NBA will need to double him. more than most this guy really needs that jumper improvement to be a significant two way player.

[Rapcity_11]

I’ve seen a lot of people criticism his rebounding online but USC was one of the best rebounding teams in the country and he gets away from the hoop more than a traditional center because he covers more ground than a traditional center

USC was #181 in DREB%.

They still got 55% of the total rebounds which is extremely good. Rebound % can be misleading. For instance what makes Mobley special is that he challenges and contests shots farther from the hoop than any big man prospect in recent memory. This will decrease his chance at a rebound but increase the chance of a missed shot and in net will still improve your teams rebound % because typically 70-80% of rebounds get collected by the defense

Improving defensive FG% is typically going to improve team rebound more than having good rebounders will. This is why someone like Andre Drummond doesn’t particularly help team rebounding, he’s a bad defender and it helps teams score better.

I think the eye test shows Mobley isn’t a particularly great rebounder and that he gets bodied a bit, but I think what he does helps a team considerably more than what a typical rebounder offers.

It’s a mix calc. For instance which team is better at rebounding?

The team that gets 25% of the Orebs and 80% of the defensive rebounds? Both are insane numbers

Or the team that gets 75% of the defensive rebounds and 20% of the offensive rebounds? Both are mediocre

Well we don’t have enough info to know. If the first team shoots 40% and allows 50% they will have a lower rebound % than the second team if they allow 40% and shoot 45%

Nah, 181st in DREB% is not an extremely good rebounding team.

The team that gets 25% and 80% is obviously the better rebounding team. They literally grab a higher % of available boards at both ends. There is no argument otherwise. A team allowing a lower or higher DFG% has no impact on DREB%, since it’s a rate stat.

There’s really no need to look at TREB%, you gotta look at DREB% and OREB%, which are not influenced by FG% or DFG%.

I think the argument that you want to make is that Mobley’s impact on DFG% more than makes up for his so-so rebounding.

Mobley should still be a monster, but the concerns around his rebounding are legit.

[LivingLegend]

I see some Durant (im not comparin them, just the shot) in mobley too on the perimeter .. once he gets more comfortable with his shot I could see him elevate at the 3 over guys

really impressive prospect

I weirdly saw the same thing too. In a video I watched it showed him in highschool and it looked like he was sort of a long SF before he hit his growth spurt and turned into a PF/C

He had/has some ball handling ability on the perimeter and showed that he could pull up/pass out there before going to USC.

[Roger Murdock]

USC was #181 in DREB%.

They still got 55% of the total rebounds which is extremely good. Rebound % can be misleading. For instance what makes Mobley special is that he challenges and contests shots farther from the hoop than any big man prospect in recent memory. This will decrease his chance at a rebound but increase the chance of a missed shot and in net will still improve your teams rebound % because typically 70-80% of rebounds get collected by the defense

Improving defensive FG% is typically going to improve team rebound more than having good rebounders will. This is why someone like Andre Drummond doesn’t particularly help team rebounding, he’s a bad defender and it helps teams score better.

I think the eye test shows Mobley isn’t a particularly great rebounder and that he gets bodied a bit, but I think what he does helps a team considerably more than what a typical rebounder offers.

It’s a mix calc. For instance which team is better at rebounding?

The team that gets 25% of the Orebs and 80% of the defensive rebounds? Both are insane numbers

Or the team that gets 75% of the defensive rebounds and 20% of the offensive rebounds? Both are mediocre

Well we don’t have enough info to know. If the first team shoots 40% and allows 50% they will have a lower rebound % than the second team if they allow 40% and shoot 45%

Nah, 181st in DREB% is not an extremely good rebounding team.

The team that gets 25% and 80% is obviously the better rebounding team. They literally grab a higher % of available boards at both ends. There is no argument otherwise. A team allowing a lower or higher DFG% has no impact on DREB%, since it’s a rate stat.

There’s really no need to look at TREB%, you gotta look at DREB% and OREB%, which are not influenced by FG% or DFG%.

I think the argument that you want to make is that Mobley’s impact on DFG% more than makes up for his so-so rebounding.

Mobley should still be a monster, but the concerns around his rebounding are legit.

I guess my point is who cares about rebound% when stops are the only thing that matters. Both the Cavs and Rockets had terrible defenses last season and finished towards the bottom in the NBA in rebounds/possession primarily because the other teams are getting buckets instead. The Cavs had this despite having 2 of the NBAs all time leading rebound% leaders on their team.

Selling out on stopping good looks is considerably more important.

[nolang1]

...
I think the eye test shows Mobley isn’t a particularly great rebounder and that he gets bodied a bit, but I think what he does helps a team considerably more than what a typical rebounder offers...

yes, the eye test shows that college boys are able to shove him all over the place. this portion of your text is admitting exactly the premise that you're trying to invalidate.

he is disruptive as a rim protector (although even then its amazing how may college guards you see spinning into the paint right into the guy, lol). regardless he closes on jump shooters really well, moves his feet well to position himself not to foul, and has elite length (even by NBA standards) to get up an contest. what he doesn't do is rebound all that well.

not sure if you've been around long enough, but he reminds me of Hot Rod (who's numbers would be better if he hadn't been on a stacked team). just not convinced Mobley is going to be a significant offensive player. he's a face up big without the handle to initiate, he's not strong enough to work inside and seems to shy away from contact anyway, he does a really nice job passing out of double teams but i'm not sure anyone in the NBA will need to double him. more than most this guy really needs that jumper improvement to be a significant two way player.

Yeah this pretty much boils down why I wouldn't be mad at a team for drafting him #2 but would be happy to trade down from his slot to a team that thinks he's a #1 overall type of prospect. Defensively he looks very good (like I find the JJJ comparisons inapt because of the vast difference in foul rate) but I think we're at the point where the defensive value of a center comes almost as much from their ability to force the opposing team to put bigger, less skilled players on the floor to defend them as it does from their mobility or rim protection. If he's not able to punish 5-out teams with interior scoring and isn't some ace three-point shooter who can really punish the bulky centers he'll have trouble defending 1v1, it's just hard seeing him having much of a positive impact offensively, and then I'm not sure if he'll be a DPOY type of defender between the lack of bulk and him being closer to a sophomore than a freshman agewise.

[WuTang_CMB]

vv

Watch on YouTube

[DCasey91]

I think Mobley’s mold ability is by far the highest in this class for a big which is very rare to find. Would not surprise me if he hits 4 assists in the NBA in his prime. The shot and rebounding is the make or break for me from good to great.

He’s tier one imo along with Green and Cade.

Green - Scoring, where does the absurd threshold lie, 26-27 or nearing 30ppg?

Cade - Shooting, that’s the biggest swing factor for me. It’s great in college but in the NBA there’s far better defenders with elite length. Booker/Tatum/Middleton have games where they are heavily reliant on their jumper. Don’t buy his great facilitating aspect at all. Never saw it so can’t comment watching the games. He’s smaller then Tatum and has less burst but more polished then Barrett. Can’t see him being a top 5 Wing. Interior game more then likely will be a struggle early (finishing, class toolbag moves even in his prime won’t be rookie Luka level).

I can see top 5 SG or Center for Green and Mobley respectively. They do have outlier components to them.

[3toheadmelo]

Mobley is good but to me he is Jaren Jackson with better rebounding. I don’t think he is this best big man prospect since AD. He’s not even better than Ayton to me

[tundraknight]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2021-nba-draft-potential-no-1-pick-evan-mobley-a-7-foot-wing-who-could-change-how-we-think-about-big-men/

^ This is an EXCELLENT article on Mobley which displays every intriguing facet of his game with several gifs provided for each example.

[NotMyKawhi]

bosh w duncan d

[RoyceDa59]

Please please please fall to #4.

[NotMyKawhi]

Please please please fall to #4.

trade up

[clyde21]

Please please please fall to #4.

not gonna happen if Hou/Cle know what they are doing.

[EMG518]

Please please please fall to #4.

not gonna happen if Hou/Cle know what they are doing.

Could definitely happen though.

[clyde21]

Please please please fall to #4.

not gonna happen if Hou/Cle know what they are doing.

Could definitely happen though.

yes, NBA GMs are dumb, anything can happen.

[WuTang_CMB]

I'm more confidant than most CLE will pass on Mobley and Toronto gets him

- CLE doesnt know what they doing
- Allen there ready to be re-upped
- Cavs want a stud wing
- They lack savvyness in trades and I dont think they are going to start trading Allen, Sexton
- Mobley's agent and Masai can force their way one spot to drop down - not far fetched

[Marcus]

bosh w duncan d

outside of basketball that joke writes itself

[clyde21]

bosh w duncan d

outside of basketball that joke writes itself

this why ur my boy marcus

[tidho]

I'm more confidant than most CLE will pass on Mobley and Toronto gets him

- CLE doesnt know what they doing
- Allen there ready to be re-upped
- Cavs want a stud wing
- They lack savvyness in trades and I dont think they are going to start trading Allen, Sexton
- Mobley's agent and Masai can force their way one spot to drop down - not far fetched

your only hope of Mobley slipping to 4 is a Sexton deal.

[Marcus]

bosh w duncan d

outside of basketball that joke writes itself

this why ur my boy marcus

unintentionally classic comment he dropped.