Vecenie: Suggs is the #2 prospect in this draft

[ash_k]

The way that people are ranking Suggs reminds me a lot of how folks ranked Wade in 2003. I'm not saying Suggs is like Wade. It just feels similar that yet another combo guard/winner type isn't living up to the hype and potential of bigger, longer players who have a higher ceiling. A high floor winner is just fine by me. I love all 4 of the big 4 in this draft. Just please no Barnes or Kuminga. I just want to see what we can do with a real blue chip, potential #1 prospect (which I feel any of the first 4 are).

Pretty accurate, not in games but watching Suggs reminded me of watching Wade and Curry in the tourney. You just look and say THAT GUY.

It has been interesting reading all those Suggs opinions...we should stay away from Wade & Curry.. and stick with "Chauncey Billups"
About "THAT GUY". Gilbert Arenas clearly did not feel that way watching him during the tournament.
It is not a perfect science, but Gilbert always provides interesting critiques

Watch on YouTube

[Indeed]

MixxSRC posted this in the draft thread https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/comments/ooq432/jalen_suggs_his_peak_as_scorer_and_playmaker/

Not saying it'll happen but... Imagine the 4th pick we lucked into turned out to be the next Harden.

Actually, Harden's draft profile is eerily similar to Suggs...

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/james-harden/

Spoiler:

Keep in mind this is Harden's sophomore season...

Strengths: Very smooth and crafty wing player … Used his sophomore season to add new dimensions to his game, and he proved to be a steady and consistent scoring threat … One of the most mature and NBA ready players of his class … He has great feel and understanding of the game, knows when he has to be a facilitator and when he has to take over the scoring load … As much as he brings in terms of scoring, his vision and playmaking ability may be his most impressive attributes … He makes great reads and is extremely unselfish … Has a developed body that is prepared to handle the rigors he will face in the league … In ISO situations he has a variety of deceptive and shifty moves that allow him to get by defenders … Out of the triple threat he is difficult to defend because his jab step is long and he sells his shot fake extremely well … Off the bounce he incorporates a nice crossover as well as in&out and behind the back dribbles to get into the lane … His jumper has shown great improvements, he has added range as well as consistency from the outside … His strength is a great asset because he is not afraid to use his body, either on drives or when playing with his back to the basket … Has good balance and body control when finishing around the basket … He has become a difficult matchup, because he looks to take advantage of mismatches, and enjoys playing with his back to the basket … Has a great feel for the ball, on the glass and in the passing lanes …

Weaknesses: Does not posses the great size that many have at his position … His leaping ability and quickness are only marginal, which forces him into tough and contested drives and makes it hard for him to get by people. His midrange game will need to become more polished, his ability to make shots off the dribble before the helpside D rotates will be key … He has become turnover prone at 3.4 per game, but this is mostly a result of being asked to do too much …

NBA comparison: Manu Ginobili/Brandon Roy

I don't think you can compare him to Harden / Roy / Rose / Fultz, where they have 6'8+ wingspan for being a better finisher, but his passing/vision maybe better than some of those, so he may not be a superstar, but borderline star is possible, imo.

[UcanUwill]

In my opinion, Cade, Suggs and Sengun will be best players from this draft, Suggs being the best.

[StopitLeo]

My concern is his wingspan being average and playing at a position with many talent replacement. I compare him to Tony Parker type of impact.

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

[lolwut]

I think I'm going to be very disappointed if we don't walk away with Suggs on draft night.

[bluerap23]

Where do you guys think Anthony Edwards would go In this years draft class?

Personally, I'd have him at #5 behind the big 4 and ahead of Barnes and Kuminga.

Back to Suggs - he's definitely at the level of Green/Mobley IMO which is why being at #4 is probably the best spot in the draft aside from landing the #1 pick. We don't even have to make the decision of who we like best out of the Green/Mobley/Suggs tier, we just take whoever falls. And, best of all, we get them at a #4 salary slot vs. a #2 or #3.

I think Cade has the highest probability of being the best player out of this draft class, but behind him, I think that Green/Mobley/Suggs all have an equal probability of being the best player out of this class.

I have a lot of faith in the ability of one of Houston or Cleveland to screw this up.

[bluerap23]

My concern is his wingspan being average and playing at a position with many talent replacement. I compare him to Tony Parker type of impact.

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

[Indeed]

My concern is his wingspan being average and playing at a position with many talent replacement. I compare him to Tony Parker type of impact.

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

[Badonkadonk]

For some additional context on Vecenie's work, his final document has 115K words and is over 135 pages long. Very deep dives on prospects from 1-100. Very impressive work.

I'll just post Suggs' conclusion that gives more insight as to why he sees him at #2, since he writes a mini-novel on these guys:

Summary
Few things are more valuable in the NBA than a lead creator. Suggs has potential to be just that given his athleticism, power, vision and basketball IQ. It’s not easy to find players with this blend of tools who also have this much of a productive track record. He has an undeniable history of winning games, from high school championships to his run with Gonzaga. And that mentality showcases itself in his game too, with Suggs typically stepping up in a big way in the biggest moments. The flashes from Suggs this past season, particularly in the biggest moments, exceeded those of 2020 No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards. I’d comfortably take what we’ve seen from Suggs over what Edwards was as a prospect last season. His vision is a real differentiator for him as a prospect in addition to the scoring. Suggs profiles as an All-Star-caliber initiator if his development as a shooter continues to go right.

[Syd-TK3]

Yeah I'd definitely take Edwards over Suggs knowing what I know now but that's just cause we need someone like him more. Pre draft though it's a toss up

[bluerap23]

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

No doubt. Ideally we would draft the next Big SF but that isn't an option, unless you believe Barnes has the talent to transform his offensive game the way Kawhi did (I am skeptical). Next one down is Jalen Johnson, who I'd really like if we still had 7, but def not at 4.

[Jadoogar]

My concern is his wingspan being average and playing at a position with many talent replacement. I compare him to Tony Parker type of impact.

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

lol tony parker would be an insane outcome. you guys are really in for a shock if you think Tony Parker is a disappointment.
Look up recent #4 picks, who had a better career than Tony Parker?

[Tor_Raps]

My concern is his wingspan being average and playing at a position with many talent replacement. I compare him to Tony Parker type of impact.

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

Parker was never the best player on any spurs team. It's like saying Iguadola was the best player on the 2015 Warriors because he won Finals MVP. It has and always will be Duncan lol.

In regards to Suggs being a Tony Parker level, sign me the hell up right now. Drafts are total crapshoots man. Everyone thought Wiggins and Parker were going to be franchise players when they entered the league.

[ciueli]

Agreed. He has the potential to be really good but he can’t be the best player on a championship team.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

If you look at a list of teams that made the playoffs this season, almost all of them have guards who are primary creators for themselves and others:
Nets: Irving, Harden
Bucks: Holiday, Middleton
Jazz: Mitchell, Conley
Blazers: Lillard
Wizards: Westbrook, Beal
Celtics: Walker
Grizzlies: Morant
Nuggets: Murray
Suns: Paul, Booker
Mavericks: Doncic
Hawks: Young

11 out of the 16 teams. The ones that didn't have that type of guard were:
76ers: Ben Simmons was exposed in the playoffs, basically they flopped because they didn't have this type of player and needed Seth Curry to fill that role.
Clippers: Underwhelmed last season arguably due to lack of production at the PG position, probably would have gotten past the Suns this season in spite of the Kawhi injury if they could have gotten more out of Rondo or Beverly.
Lakers: Not getting what they want out of Schroder, trying to get a better player for this position during the offseason.
Heat: Tried to get Lowry at the deadline, brought Oladipo on to improve guard play, now trying to improve again in the offseason.
Knicks: Used a Rose/Payton/Quickley rotation during the season, trying really hard to improve at PG in the offseason.

So the idea that bigger players at SF/PF/C are always going to be the creators is actually not where the league is heading, it's more trending in the direction of scoring point guards like Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Trae Young.

[Indeed]

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and was the best player on the 2007 championship spurs.

Yeah - I'd be ok with that.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

If you look at a list of teams that made the playoffs this season, almost all of them have guards who are primary creators for themselves and others:
Nets: Irving, Harden
Bucks: Holiday, Middleton
Jazz: Mitchell, Conley
Blazers: Lillard
Wizards: Westbrook, Beal
Celtics: Walker
Grizzlies: Morant
Nuggets: Murray
Suns: Paul, Booker
Mavericks: Doncic
Hawks: Young

11 out of the 16 teams. The ones that didn't have that type of guard were:
76ers: Ben Simmons was exposed in the playoffs, basically they flopped because they didn't have this type of player and needed Seth Curry to fill that role.
Clippers: Underwhelmed last season arguably due to lack of production at the PG position, probably would have gotten past the Suns this season in spite of the Kawhi injury if they could have gotten more out of Rondo or Beverly.
Lakers: Not getting what they want out of Schroder, trying to get a better player for this position during the offseason.
Heat: Tried to get Lowry at the deadline, brought Oladipo on to improve guard play, now trying to improve again in the offseason.
Knicks: Used a Rose/Payton/Quickley rotation during the season, trying really hard to improve at PG in the offseason.

So the idea that bigger players at SF/PF/C are always going to be the creators is actually not where the league is heading, it's more trending in the direction of scoring point guards like Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Trae Young.

Doncic and Middleton aren't SF size guards? They are not in the category of LeBron, Giannis who has ball handling, finishing, passing?
As for Curry, without Thompson and KD, are they a playoff team? 2nd season?

Meanwhile, which team makes it deep to the playoffs without SF/PF with guard skills?
Bucks: Middleton, Giannis
Suns: (only exception)
Hawks: Huerter
Clippers: Leonard, George
Sixers: Simmons, Harris
Jazz: Bogdanović, Ingles
Nets: Durrant
Nuggets: Gordon
Mavericks: Doncic
Lakers: LaBron
Celtics: Brown, Tatum
Blazers: (first round folder)
Wizards: (first round folder)
Grizzlies: (first round folder)
Heat: (first round folder)
Knicks: (first round folder)

Saying Simmons is exposed, other teams in Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers are going anywhere with guards play only?

[ciueli]

Doncic and Middleton aren't SF size guards? They are not in the category of LeBron, Giannis who has ball handling, finishing, passing?
As for Curry, without Thompson and KD, are they a playoff team? 2nd season?

Meanwhile, which team makes it deep to the playoffs without SF/PF with guard skills?
Bucks: Middleton, Giannis
Suns: (only exception)
Hawks: Huerter
Clippers: Leonard, George
Sixers: Simmons, Harris
Jazz: Bogdanović, Ingles
Nets: Durrant
Nuggets: Gordon
Mavericks: Doncic
Lakers: LaBron
Celtics: Brown, Tatum
Blazers: (first round folder)
Wizards: (first round folder)
Grizzlies: (first round folder)
Heat: (first round folder)
Knicks: (first round folder)

Saying Simmons is exposed, other teams in Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers are going anywhere with guards play only?

First you talk about SF as creators, now it's just guard skills. How Kevin Huerter fits into that is completely beyond me, I guess because he is a good shooter, same as Joe Ingles? If so, how did Gordon make it in then?

And players aren't SFs just because they're 6'6" or taller.

[alpngso]

I feel like Vecenie tends to prefer the high floor guys. He likes junior and seniors vs the consensus

[Indeed]

Doncic and Middleton aren't SF size guards? They are not in the category of LeBron, Giannis who has ball handling, finishing, passing?
As for Curry, without Thompson and KD, are they a playoff team? 2nd season?

Meanwhile, which team makes it deep to the playoffs without SF/PF with guard skills?
Bucks: Middleton, Giannis
Suns: (only exception)
Hawks: Huerter
Clippers: Leonard, George
Sixers: Simmons, Harris
Jazz: Bogdanović, Ingles
Nets: Durrant
Nuggets: Gordon
Mavericks: Doncic
Lakers: LaBron
Celtics: Brown, Tatum
Blazers: (first round folder)
Wizards: (first round folder)
Grizzlies: (first round folder)
Heat: (first round folder)
Knicks: (first round folder)

Saying Simmons is exposed, other teams in Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers are going anywhere with guards play only?

First you talk about SF as creators, now it's just guard skills. How Kevin Huerter fits into that is completely beyond me, I guess because he is a good shooter, same as Joe Ingles? If so, how did Gordon make it in then?

And players aren't SFs just because they're 6'6" or taller.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

Huerter - ball handling, passing, no?
Gordon - ball handling, finishing, no?
Ingles - ball handling, passing, no?

So what are these SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc. if they are not SF?
Please keep in mind that you quote my definition, and now you are not accepting my definition when based on it?

[ciueli]

Doncic and Middleton aren't SF size guards? They are not in the category of LeBron, Giannis who has ball handling, finishing, passing?
As for Curry, without Thompson and KD, are they a playoff team? 2nd season?

Meanwhile, which team makes it deep to the playoffs without SF/PF with guard skills?
Bucks: Middleton, Giannis
Suns: (only exception)
Hawks: Huerter
Clippers: Leonard, George
Sixers: Simmons, Harris
Jazz: Bogdanović, Ingles
Nets: Durrant
Nuggets: Gordon
Mavericks: Doncic
Lakers: LaBron
Celtics: Brown, Tatum
Blazers: (first round folder)
Wizards: (first round folder)
Grizzlies: (first round folder)
Heat: (first round folder)
Knicks: (first round folder)

Saying Simmons is exposed, other teams in Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers are going anywhere with guards play only?

First you talk about SF as creators, now it's just guard skills. How Kevin Huerter fits into that is completely beyond me, I guess because he is a good shooter, same as Joe Ingles? If so, how did Gordon make it in then?

And players aren't SFs just because they're 6'6" or taller.

In this era, it will be your SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc.
Eg. Leonard, LeBron, Giannis, etc.

Huerter - ball handling, passing, no?
Gordon - ball handling, finishing, no?
Ingles - ball handling, passing, no?

So what are these SF/PF with ball handling, finishing, passing, etc. if they are not SF?
Please keep in mind that you quote my definition, and now you are not accepting my definition when based on it?

At this point I have no idea what you're talking about. I think you tried to make some point about the future of the league being guys like LeBron/Kawhi/Giannis being the main offensive initiators on teams going forward and it got muddled. Like I don't know how Kevin Huerter and Aaron Gordon became part of the conversation.

The reality is that it is increasingly a guard driven league, it's the rise of Steph Curry ball. Small quick guards that exploit mismatches and punish slow footed bigs with dribble drives and shooting. The Nets playing Kevin Durant as a center because they need a big who can switch onto guards as an example.

It's relevant in this thread because this thread is about Suggs (a guard) being the #2 prospect.

[Jcity08]

I think I'm going to be very disappointed if we don't walk away with Suggs on draft night.

And with the number 3 pick, the Cavs select.... Jalen Suggs from Gonzaga.

*just kidding*