Boston Red Sox (56-38) at Toronto Blue Jays (48-42) - July 19-21

[I_Like_Dirt]

That's the same bullpen that plays in wins. Their run variance is extremely high. Just look at July. Before tonight they've outscored their opponents 70-53 (32% more runs scored) and they've only gone 7-6. But take away their 25-2 thrashing of the Rangers over 3 games and they've actually been outscored and their win totals aren't out of line.

That's just baseball. The Astros have the best runs/game in baseball. They're also hitting .215/.280/.378 collectively in July (4.2 runs/game), after hitting .294/.378/.488 in June (6.1 runs/game). They actually scored 1 run in 3 games a couple weeks ago, then 15 in their next 2 games, and then 1 in their next 2.

If your run variance is high, it's probably because you score a fair number of runs overall.

So you're thinking unlucky. I can definitely see that. But I'm not so sure I'm willing to throw the pitching under the bus alone here. If it's bad luck then it's bad luck all around. If it's psyche, then I also suspect it might be psyche all around. The Jays got it to 5-4 and immediately went hitless from that point on so far. Here's hoping they deviate from their pattern.

[vaff87]

Kirk was pinch hit for, and he was DHing. I wonder if that’s related to Jansen?

[Schad]

So you're thinking unlucky.

Mostly, I think that our bullpen sucks. Or sucked; it's still not good, but it has stabilized a bit compared to that month-long stretch from mid-May to mid-June, where we went 10-17 and the 'pen posted an ERA in the mid-5.00s. That stretch is pretty much the difference between us being in the thick of the race, and being fringy Wild Card chancers.

[GoRapstheoriginal]

F*cking idiots.

[Randle McMurphy]

Kirk was pinch hit for, and he was DHing. I wonder if that’s related to Jansen?

99% yes, I'd say.

[vaff87]

Kirk was pinch hit for, and he was DHing. I wonder if that’s related to Jansen?

99% yes, I'd say.

Now I kinda feel bad for wishing Kirk was in the majors all night lol

[Schad]

F*cking idiots.

I'm genuinely bemused that you seem to believe that winning baseball games is just a matter of really wanting to win baseball games. This is the bargain with Robbie Ray: when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. He's been missing bats recently, but there will be nights where he gets shellacked.

[JaysRule15]

Really hope we get Kirk in this lineup going forward. If Moreno is really the next great catcher, doesn't it make sense to let Kirk play as much as possible this year in the majors to see what we have in him? If he performs well, he could part of an offseason trade or go into next season as one of the two catchers. What exactly are we gaining by stashing Kirk in the minors right now? The off chance that some team might give anything up in a trade for McGuire/Jansen?

[JaysRule15]

This probably explains why Romano was trying to throw fastballs in two strike counts to consecutive batters. That's a considerable drop in spin, especially on his slider yikes.

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[Randle McMurphy]

Really hope we get Kirk in this lineup going forward. If Moreno is really the next great catcher, doesn't it make sense to let Kirk play as much as possible this year in the majors to see what we have in him? If he performs well, he could part of an offseason trade or go into next season as one of the two catchers. What exactly are we gaining by stashing Kirk in the minors right now? The off chance that some team might give anything up in a trade for McGuire/Jansen?

From an even more simple perspective, it makes sense to have your best players in the majors if the goal is to win games. I don’t think there’s much doubt he’s the best healthy catcher in the organization right now.

If they’re waiting for somebody to give them something of much value for Jansen or McGuire, they’re going to keep waiting.

[Yeezus_]

So what do we think? Are we in a good position for a wild card spot or no? We have to leap a few pretty good teams.

[Schad]

We aren't in a good position for a Wild Card spot. Neither are we in an irrecoverable position, but Fangraphs gives us about a 32% chance of getting there, and that means about a 1 in 6 chance of actually competing in a playoff round.

So ultimately we're in the awkward middle ground: we should probably make some fringy moves to shore up the team, in case we get back into the race, but we probably shouldn't commit significant resources that could best be used in the offseason, because we have every chance to go into 2022 with a hellacious team.

[johanliebert]

Richards is pitching quite differently than the last time they saw him (way less fastballs and way more changeups). Delivery looks completely different too. He's reworked quite a bit in just a matter of weeks.

Bigger issue tonight is Robbie Ray giving up 3 HRs in 4 innings.

Giving up 4 runs in 5 innings isn't great but it's still a game where arguably the best offense in baseball should still stand a chance and win their fair share. They don't win their fair share of games like that.

Ray was really bad tonight in one of the bigger outings of the year. Little excuse for that.

The Jays probably should be hitting Richards more than they are, but he's literally different tonight than he's been all season. He's thrown 15 changeups already compared to only four in his previous outing and zero in his last outing against the Jays. He's seemingly transformed himself into something else over night and it is quite possible it could be something better (if he can sustain this).

And to make matters worse they paired him up with the black hole jansen

[LLJ]

We aren't in a good position for a Wild Card spot. Neither are we in an irrecoverable position, but Fangraphs gives us about a 32% chance of getting there, and that means about a 1 in 6 chance of actually competing in a playoff round.

So ultimately we're in the awkward middle ground: we should probably make some fringy moves to shore up the team, in case we get back into the race, but we probably shouldn't commit significant resources that could best be used in the offseason, because we have every chance to go into 2022 with a hellacious team.

Eh, I dunno. This team reminds me of the Halladay teams in that they could totally kick ass when playing teams outside the AL East, but get consistently owned by the top 2 or so AL East teams in every series.

Unless the Jays find a magical switch this season that gets them to start winning series over the Rays and Red Sox and not having disappointing series against the Orioles and Yankees, I don't see the Jays making a run. They just don't look like they have it in them. If only we played the Rangers and Braves the rest of the season, then maybe...

[Schad]

Eh, I dunno. This team reminds me of the Halladay teams in that they could totally kick ass when playing teams outside the AL East, but get consistently owned by the top 2 or so AL East teams in every series.

It's basically just Tampa. We're 4-6 against Boston, which isn't really catastrophic. Wwe're actually outscoring them handily, but got Dolis'd twice, and we're 6-6 against the Yankees. Tampa has earned their 8-5 record against though.

[I_Like_Dirt]

It's not one particular team. They beat the Rangers and Orioles, yeah, but mostly they're 13-2 in interleague play including 10-0 against the Braves and Marlins. They're 35-42 collectively against the AL. They're just not that good against the AL and even worse against .500 or better teams, most of whom happen to be in the AL.