Post#219 » by doclinkin » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:37 pm
ONE WEEK
I guess I'm confident there will be damn good players available at 15. And at least one of the players drafted late will outperform many of those taken 1-14. Of those likely to be available I can't decide who I want, above all others, which is why yeah of course I wish I had extra picks. Still, I get the sense teams all have similar mindset this year, and trades for picks will be hard to come by. Too, my impression with Tommy in particular is that his scouting mindset means he is more likely to fall in love with a guy and trade up than to swap for a couple guys lower down.
Of the guys I like, the ones I am certain will have a solid career (if health allows) and outplay their draft position:
Trey Murphy III. Though I expect he will be taken earlier.
Davion Mitchell (I get the sense there's a chance Mitchell falls. Too many people like too many talents lowerdown, a few talents will jump ahead, so some players will fall).
Jared Butler (smooth scorer, high profile).
Chris Duarte. (Solid 2nd tier scorer, highly efficient, good effort on defense).
Ayo Dosunmu. (I predict a long career, even as a journeyman, can play both ways, coaches favorite bench player on a winning team)
Joel Ayayi. (Ditto)
Queta. (More talented than where he is mocked, though he gained notice at the combine).
Weiskamp. (Sniper).
The ones that are tantalizing talents with significant upside:
Jaden Springer. (smooth, efficient, 2-way, upside)
Sharife Cooper. (wizard on the attack)
Ziaire Williams. (talented, suffered injury)
Filip Petrusev. (smooth athletic Big, developing outside-in game in an era that needs that, with that Serbian complete game)
What I predict will happen is that one of the higher rated prospects falls and Tommy will take him with no trade made.
One or more of the following guys will slide down relative to the pre-draft mocks, whether they make it to 15:
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Sengun
Jalen Johnson
Moses Moody
Franz Wagner
Corey Kispert
James Bouknight
all of the above have some question marks or flaws that make me shrug, not my favorites.
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Of the above players. If you forced me to pick one, *just ONE* available at 15. I think I would go with Jaden Springer.
His efficiency and defense are advanced to the point where I don't know why he is mocked so low. I suspect because his game isn't flashy, simply smooth. He is making the right decisions, not the crowd pleasing ones. Still, as one of the youngest players in the draft, that suggests to me his upside is serious and significant. He has a precociously complete game. The knock on him that he didn't shoot many 3's on volume until later in the season suggests intelligence more than lack of aggression: he won't force his game until he develops a comfort level. Also: he is still learning what he can do. Yes this risks him being an Otto Porter-esque efficiency all-star, a guy who reads as passive since he is passing up his own shot. But as a guy who was 17 when the school year started, and who ended up leading his team in all the per 40 or per possession metrics, I think he was simply filling his role next to the higher rated Keon Johnson. Too, if this team had an Otto Porter playing next to Russ, we would have had far fewer empty possessions, with a reliable outside gunner who knows how to be effective off the ball.
And his defense is notable for a young cat. He stays upright, keeps a wide base, does not get bumped off his spot, moves his feet to wall off penetration, makes steals when on the ball more than jumping a passing lane on a gamble. He does not look like the standard rookie defender risk to pick up fouls in high volume. And as a young cat you can full expect he is going to get stronger when in the weight room at the next level. He's so young that as a trainer I'd likely just work on core strength exercises for a while until I'm sure he's done growing. I used to sneer at the youth thing, but study after study popped up suggesting that the earlier a player produces, the higher their possible upside seems to be in terms of All-star games and All-NBA selections etc. So okay, I will listen.
In that respect, if I had to gamble on one player for both production and upside, the player who both produced efficiently on BOTH sides offense/defense, and who has room to grow in many ways, I'm thinking Springer is the one. Seems like a player who will both give solid production, not be benched for any particular glaring weakness, fit well next to ball handlers like Russ and Deni, and earn the live ball minutes he needs to fulfill his potential. This team does need an understudy for Beal, even if currently our two all star guards eat most of those minutes. We need a 6th man sub at guard who has the potential to take the starting role at some point in the future. I'd prefer a combo guard in that role, I guess, but one who can play early and has a ready-made role is key.
Am I willing to risk passing this one on a trade down? .......yyees.... I think I would be. I think so. I'd pick him over most of the guys that might slip to us from higher up, but if certain guys slip there will be teams that'll be eager to jump the line to pay for them. These teams might overlook Springer. Or if we select him, then there may be a team who wants to over pay for him. I'd lsiten.
Either way on a trade I feel confident we could plug holes with strong talent late draft while picking up future assets so that we don't have this one-pick dilemma in future years. The team has needs and holes to fill. This team and its late season run was built on one-year expiring vets that we don't have the $ to re-sign. We have traded away future picks on a team that will need to re-tool at least once more in the next few years even if Beal re-inks with us. Our cupboard is bare. I think some package of:
Duarte + ... (Ayo, Queta, Weiskamp, current player, future picks, etc)
Trey Murphy +...
Jared Butler +...
will give us more production long term in wins per dollar/minutes played over any one particular player. Even a smoothly precocious one with untold upside.
