2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[vaff87]

Austin Martin has his OBP up to .409. I don’t know what to make of his season. He’s not hitting for much power at all, and he’s only hitting .270, but he’s drawing a ton of walks. He has 23 in his last 30 games. He drew three tonight, and also got hit by a pitch on a full count. Also, his K% is less than 20% in those 30 games.

[Trilogy]

Kevin Smith definitely deserves a call up in a vacuum. His numbers are getting nutty in AAA.

FO needs to figure out what they want to do with Gurriel/Biggio. The spectre of Semien's FA sort of looms though and they might be hesitant to trade or move Biggio to the OF full time because he's not good but passable at 2B (whereas a total dumpster fire at 3B) and could slide back there next year. Then there is Espinal to consider who should probably be getting more AB's. Gurriel feels like the one to deal for a starting pitcher but I can't tell what his value would be.

Smith is starting to force the issue at AAA though. 152 WRC+.

[The_Hater]

Kevin Smith definitely deserves a call up in a vacuum. His numbers are getting nutty in AAA.

FO needs to figure out what they want to do with Gurriel/Biggio. The spectre of Semien's FA sort of looms though and they might be hesitant to trade or move Biggio to the OF full time because he's not good but passable at 2B (whereas a total dumpster fire at 3B) and could slide back there next year. Then there is Espinal to consider who should probably be getting more AB's. Gurriel feels like the one to deal for a starting pitcher but I can't tell what his value would be.

Smith is starting to force the issue at AAA though. 152 WRC+.

I don’t expect there to be much of an issue with Semien in the off season. With this way he’s playing, the contract he’ll demand and the number of middle infielders Toronto has at the top of the pipeline, he just doesn’t make a lot of sense. That money should be spent elsewhere.

[Schad]

Kevin Smith definitely deserves a call up in a vacuum. His numbers are getting nutty in AAA.

FO needs to figure out what they want to do with Gurriel/Biggio. The spectre of Semien's FA sort of looms though and they might be hesitant to trade or move Biggio to the OF full time because he's not good but passable at 2B (whereas a total dumpster fire at 3B) and could slide back there next year. Then there is Espinal to consider who should probably be getting more AB's. Gurriel feels like the one to deal for a starting pitcher but I can't tell what his value would be.

Smith is starting to force the issue at AAA though. 152 WRC+.

The odd man out at the moment should be Davis. He really doesn't add anything to the current roster: he's a middling defensive CF, and he's a bad baserunner. We have two players that can cover CF adequately as it stands.

I'm pretty dubious that Espinal is or will be a good hitter. He makes a tonne of weak contact, and is getting by on an unsustainable BABIP. But he's a perfectly serviceable backup infielder, with Biggio serving as a left-handed 2B/3B/LF option (at least until Dickerson is healthy), and Smith getting a real look at 3B.

[JaysRule15]

Austin Martin has his OBP up to .409. I don’t know what to make of his season. He’s not hitting for much power at all, and he’s only hitting .270, but he’s drawing a ton of walks. He has 23 in his last 30 games. He drew three tonight, and also got hit by a pitch on a full count. Also, his K% is less than 20% in those 30 games.

The lack of power has been a noticeable flaw in his prospect profile even before the draft days. I was hoping that spending a couple of years under our player development program would lead to him putting on some muscle and increasing his power, but doesn't looks like the case so far. But hey, if he could be a high obp guy even without the power, that's still a decent player. Kinda like Marco Scutaro.

[Schad]

If Martin can get on base and play a premium defensive position competently, he doesn't need to have major power. But he will need to have more power than he is currently displaying; he needs to be a doubles machine if he isn't a HR producer, and right now he's not.

Still not panicking yet, though. Even for an advanced college hitter, the jump straight to AA is a big one. He has demonstrated the ability to put together good at-bats, and his K:BB has improved dramatically as the year has progressed. But he's probably now more likely a 2023 prospect rather than someone we can expect to make an impact next season.

[vaff87]

Martinez is 3-4 with 2 HR, a double, and a walk.

[Randle McMurphy]

Martinez is 3-4 with 2 HR, a double, and a walk.

If it wasn't for Vlad, I'd just want to fast forward to 2023 right now.

[vaff87]

Martinez has a .306 iso power on the season, and for his career it’s .294. That’s... really rare for a 19 year old, right?

[vaff87]

Ok, criteria;

19 or younger
2006-2021
Single season
Full season ball
240+ plate appearances
Iso power .300 or higher

Giancarlo Stanton 2008
Joey Gallo 2013
Seuly Matias 2018
Orelvis Martinez 2021

[Schad]

Ok, criteria;

19 or younger
2006-2021
Single season
Full season ball
240+ plate appearances
Iso power .300 or higher

Giancarlo Stanton 2008
Joey Gallo 2013
Seuly Matias 2018
Orelvis Martinez 2021

That's not half-bad. Matias was the absolute extreme end of the power-but-Ks scale...obscene iso, but his on-base was horrific (especially if you assume the very-high HBP rate was a fluke) and struck out at Coninian rates in low A. A year later, he hit .148 and whiffed 44% of the time, and now he's probably not far from seeing his career in the baseball pyramid end, unfortunately.

[vaff87]

Ok, criteria;

19 or younger
2006-2021
Single season
Full season ball
240+ plate appearances
Iso power .300 or higher

Giancarlo Stanton 2008
Joey Gallo 2013
Seuly Matias 2018
Orelvis Martinez 2021

That's not half-bad. Matias was the absolute extreme end of the power-but-Ks scale...obscene iso, but his on-base was horrific (especially if you assume the very-high HBP rate was a fluke) and struck out at Coninian rates in low A. A year later, he hit .148 and whiffed 44% of the time, and now he's probably not far from seeing his career in the baseball pyramid end, unfortunately.

I figure the K% would also be pretty important.

Stanton .318 iso; 28.3%
Gallo .365 iso; 37.0%
Matias .320 iso; 34.8%
Orelvis .306 iso; 26.1%

[vaff87]

Apparently in Keith Law’s updated top 50, he has:

5. Gabriel Moreno
12. Austin Martin
19. Nate Pearson
40. Orelvis Martinez

[polo007]

Top 50 MLB prospects: Keith Law's updated 2021 midseason list - The Athletic

5. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Moreno broke his thumb in mid-June, which might be the only thing stopping his ascent to the majors right now, as he hit .373/.441/.651 in 32 games in Double A as a 21-year-old before the injury, while showing plus defensive skills across the board for the Fisher Cats. Moreno has quick hands and excellent bat control, with a short swing that should produce average power but a ton of hard contact, while he’s made substantial progress as a receiver. His hand strength may not be all the way back until next year due to the injury but it’s not a factor for the long term. He’s a future star.

12. Austin Martin, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Martin’s swing has become a bit more inside-out this year than it was in college, possibly because of a hand injury he sustained on a slide in mid-May, but he’s still getting on base at a high clip — .409 so far on the season in Double A, .428 since the start of June — just without power. He’s been splitting time between shortstop and center field, with the latter the more likely position of the two, especially as his throwing hasn’t been great when he has to move to his right at short. He hasn’t had an extra-base hit in a month, which is almost certainly a result of that inside-out approach, but he’s doing all the other things he’s supposed to be doing, and has a strong leadoff profile once he gets back to his usual swing.

19. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Pearson still has No. 1 starter stuff, but his trouble staying healthy is enough of a concern to slide him down from where he was before the season. This year it’s been a sports hernia and groin injuries, which have set him back to the point that the Jays are talking about moving him to the bullpen for the rest of this season, which could also help the Jays in their playoff push. He can show multiple plus pitches and hit 100 mph when healthy — even sometimes when he’s not fully healthy — and they seem committed to letting him start again next spring, which is the right call given his upside.

40. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Martinez has been on an incredible tear of late, with seven homers in his last seven games to seize the lead in the Low-A East League by three over Anthony Volpe, who’s already been promoted; no one else in the league has more than 10 homers. Martinez has tremendous bat speed and the ball comes off his bat extremely well, while he’s played mostly shortstop this year and has the plus arm and soft hands for it. He’s 6’1″ and is going to end up over 200 pounds, so he might move over to third, but this hit/power tool combination is going to play anywhere, and it’s going to come down mostly to how good his plate discipline — which still lags his other tools — becomes.

[JaysRule15]

It's funny that despite all these infield prospects we have coming up, no one really projects to be a shortstop at the major league level. Bo might just stick there by default after all

[Schad]

It's funny that despite all these infield prospects we have coming up, no one really projects to be a shortstop at the major league level. Bo might just stick there by default after all

That's why I'm a little hesitant to declare Bo to be not-a-shortstop: half the league goes through the minors at SS, but very few have the range to stick there in the bigs. Bo does, he just commits a lot of really bizarre errors. And it seems like it ought to be easier to teach him how to not flail at the occasional routine grounder than it is to find a guy who can hit well and also have the range to hold down short.

[vaff87]

Since ~May 28th, Austin Martin is walking 16.1% of the time and only striking out 18.1%. His OBP is .426 in the 155 plate appearances he’s had over that time.

So it’s really only the power. And maybe that can be attributed to the hand injury?

[dagger]

A tribute to a non-prospect. Vinny Capra is having one of those seasons at NH that absolutely is worth honouring. He was our 20th round pick in 2018, the 596th pick of that draft. He's undersized at 5'8", and he doesn't have much power, a fair number of doubles, six homers, but no, he's not the next Jose Altuve. There's not much there to build a prospect resume, but he does hit: BA .370, OBP .470, OPS, 1.077. And he's timely, sent in as a pinch hitter with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth last night, NH down two runs, he hit a two run line-drive single, and Kevin Vicuna followed with the walk-off single, capping a four-run rally. So to Vinny, keep it up, winning games is better than losing for maintaining a competitive team approach among our top prospects.

[dagger]

A tribute to a non-prospect. Vinny Capra is having one of those seasons at NH that absolutely is worth honouring. He was our 20th round pick in 2018, the 596th pick of that draft. He's undersized at 5'8", and he doesn't have much power, a fair number of doubles, six homers, but no, he's not the next Jose Altuve. There's not much there to build a prospect resume, but he does hit: BA .370, OBP .470, OPS, 1.077. And he's timely, sent in as a pinch hitter with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth last night, NH down two runs, he hit a two run line-drive single, and Kevin Vicuna followed with the walk-off single, capping a four-run rally. So to Vinny, keep it up, winning games is better than losing for maintaining a competitive team approach among our top prospects.

I swear I didn’t know this when I wrote this tribute - Capra is up with Buffalo tonight. Don’t know if this is temp for an injured player, or permanent.


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[vaff87]

Orelvis has another homer tonight. This power display in July has been incredible.