Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread

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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#221 » by homecourtloss » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:25 pm

VanWest82 wrote:Reading some of these replies stating Lebron > Giannis defensively despite massive differences in defensive responsibility and volume, I assume all you guys voted Kawhi over Rudy Gobert for DPOY this season.

Edit: my analogy is dumb because Kawhi actually guards first options.

Volume maybe, but responsibility, no. Lebron was calling the defensive plays, telling players where to be, calling the rotations that needed to be 100% dialed in the entire game or otherwise, Curry or Klay get off a few open ones and the game completely changes since they were so tightly contested. You’re looking at contests, but these numbers don’t count the actions James stopped by calling out a rotation or rotating himself. When playing or watching live you see how important this defensive communication is ESPECIALLY in the three ball era as one late rotation turns the game against a team like GS. One of the reasons old Stockton (37-40) was still impactful defensively even as a small guard is because he called out the rotations. Neither Giannis nor Kawhi are the vocal defensive QBs James is. On top of all this energy, he was tasked with running the offense and being the **** creator.

The Warriors actively avoided LeBron because the rest of the Cavs were weak or average defenders.

—Kyrie: weak defender but had a good Finals team defensive wise but the Warriors lit him up when he contested shots
—JR: weak team defender, had a few solid years contesting shots. I got to watch a Cavs/Raps regular season game and JR was the one LeBron was always talking to the most to rotate.
—KLove: good rebounder that makes him a positive on defense but average to weak in other areas who played his best defensive series ever probably.
—TT: slight positive defender who had a very good Finals series defensively
—Jefferson: old as heel whom James and the Cavs got to play decent defense
—Shumpert: plus defender

Nobody else really played minutes. THis group held an all time great +8.1 rORtg team with a GOAT offensive player having a GOAT season to basically nothing over a three game stretch. How was it done? Great defensive energy, Love and TT playing above their heads, and an all-time great defensive performance from James.

The rest has already been stated and posted

—On-off including how curry did with James on and off
—Largest leap over a series I’ve ever seen in DRPM
We have 8 years of tracking data. I have NEVER seen any other stretch from any other player in a series in which the opponents shot -12.6% rdfg% in every category over a full series. Against a GOAT offensive team. Maybe it exists but I haven’t seen it, and this was from the primary offense creator. It’s just absurd. He did this all playoffs and finals so the game 6 performance isn’t a fluke. 2/13 at the rim over the last three games. A few of those shots change the outcome of the series.

BTW, James in 2016 was a monster defensively.

LeBron, 2016

Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 13% in spot up defense
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 27% in post up defense

I’ve gone through quite a bit of tracking data and still haven’t found a player top 30% in every category let alone a teams primary offense initiator who’s 31 years old. 

Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
i dont think lebron is in giannis level defensively but

1- i dont want us to be so dogmátic that we automaticallh. shut down opinions that are very unorthodox after someone took the effort of making a serious arguments and recopiling the data to support his argument
if they are wrong it can be argued back why is wrong

let the dogmatism and mocking inusual opinions to the general board or nba twitter, this board tries to be better than that

2- he was not even arguing for lebron= giannis defensively but talking specifically about a really small stretch of games (2016 finals) vs another small stretch (2021 finals). that is far from arguing a full season vs full season, let alone career vs career

It's not the first debate about LeBron's defense in 2016. I don't think any of sides will change their minds after another empty discussion.


One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.


Exactly.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#222 » by VanWest82 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:49 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Reading some of these replies stating Lebron > Giannis defensively despite massive differences in defensive responsibility and volume, I assume all you guys voted Kawhi over Rudy Gobert for DPOY this season.

Edit: my analogy is dumb because Kawhi actually guards first options.


clippers defense started being good after kawhi went down actually, they has been mediocre (reg season) and at points outright subpar (playoffs) with him

at some point when a player doesnt improve a team defensively as much as the "shuts down thw opposite star" eye test suggests we need to start questioning him

in offense when guys score a lot and fill the stat sheer but dont improve teams much or at at all we call them into question, why would defense be different ?


I can understand questioning Kawhi's defense in the regular season. Like Lebron, he picks his spots and so the season long impact isn't really there. But in terms of guarding the best guy in the playoffs?

Games 1-3 Mavs ORTG, Luka + Kawhi ON (Kawhi doesn't guard Luka): 131
Games 4-7 Mavs ORTG, Luka + Kawhi ON (Kawhi as primary defender): 109

Games 1-2 Bucks ORTG, Giannis + Kawhi ON (Kawhi doesn't guard Giannis): 116
Games 3-6 Bucks ORTG, Giannis + Kawhi ON (Kawhi as primary defender): 100

It's ridiculous to suggest that Kawhi isn't having a major defensive impact when he decides to guard the opposing star player full time. Further, his impact in that role is greater than Lebron's off ball, weakside, back line help role even with all the deterrent/QBing or whatever other intangible stuff you might want to give him (and only him) credit for.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#223 » by 70sFan » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:50 pm

Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
i dont think lebron is in giannis level defensively but

1- i dont want us to be so dogmátic that we automaticallh. shut down opinions that are very unorthodox after someone took the effort of making a serious arguments and recopiling the data to support his argument
if they are wrong it can be argued back why is wrong

let the dogmatism and mocking inusual opinions to the general board or nba twitter, this board tries to be better than that

2- he was not even arguing for lebron= giannis defensively but talking specifically about a really small stretch of games (2016 finals) vs another small stretch (2021 finals). that is far from arguing a full season vs full season, let alone career vs career

It's not the first debate about LeBron's defense in 2016. I don't think any of sides will change their minds after another empty discussion.


One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.

Tracking data is extremely noisy, especially at such a small sample of size. Let's assume that it paints fair picture though - we all know how man defense is generally overrated in casual discussions, why do we start to worship it when James looks good by that criteria?
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#224 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:56 pm

70sFan wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:It's not the first debate about LeBron's defense in 2016. I don't think any of sides will change their minds after another empty discussion.


One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.

Tracking data is extremely noisy, especially at such a small sample of size. Let's assume that it paints fair picture though - we all know how man defense is generally overrated in casual discussions, why do we start to worship it when James looks good by that criteria?


in fairness, i think it got brought up because the +/- data got questioned on the basis that lebron was not defending the opposite star as a primary defender in 2016

so shot creator used it to show it was not a fluke that cavs defense was so good witj lebron on court
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#225 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:07 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Reading some of these replies stating Lebron > Giannis defensively despite massive differences in defensive responsibility and volume, I assume all you guys voted Kawhi over Rudy Gobert for DPOY this season.

Edit: my analogy is dumb because Kawhi actually guards first options.


clippers defense started being good after kawhi went down actually, they has been mediocre (reg season) and at points outright subpar (playoffs) with him

at some point when a player doesnt improve a team defensively as much as the "shuts down thw opposite star" eye test suggests we need to start questioning him

in offense when guys score a lot and fill the stat sheer but dont improve teams much or at at all we call them into question, why would defense be different ?


I can understand questioning Kawhi's defense in the regular season. Like Lebron, he picks his spots and so the season long impact isn't really there. But in terms of guarding the best guy in the playoffs?

Games 1-3 Mavs ORTG, Luka + Kawhi ON (Kawhi doesn't guard Luka): 131
Games 4-7 Mavs ORTG, Luka + Kawhi ON (Kawhi as primary defender): 109

Games 1-2 Bucks ORTG, Giannis + Kawhi ON (Kawhi doesn't guard Giannis): 116
Games 3-6 Bucks ORTG, Giannis + Kawhi ON (Kawhi as primary defender): 100

It's ridiculous to suggest that Kawhi isn't having a major defensive impact when he decides to guard the opposing star player full time. Further, his impact in that role is greater than Lebron's off ball, weakside, back line help role even with all the deterrent/QBing or whatever other intangible stuff you might want to give him (and only him) credit for.


one doubt

is this about possesions where kawhi actively guarded doncic or about all the time both were on court together including possesions where kawhi switches off him or where the ball didnt go through luka?

cause if kawhi switching off him and luka scoring doesnt count as part of kawhi defense on him thay is a potential issue with the data

kawhi letting luka get switched into beverley or zubac (which by memory happened kinda often in thst series) shouldnt go in kawhi favor (assuming it happened enough to skew the data
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#226 » by VanWest82 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:11 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Reading some of these replies stating Lebron > Giannis defensively despite massive differences in defensive responsibility and volume, I assume all you guys voted Kawhi over Rudy Gobert for DPOY this season.

Edit: my analogy is dumb because Kawhi actually guards first options.

Volume maybe, but responsibility, no. Lebron was calling the defensive plays, telling players where to be, calling the rotations that needed to be 100% dialed in the entire game or otherwise, Curry or Klay get off a few open ones and the game completely changes since they were so tightly contested. You’re looking at contests, but these numbers don’t count the actions James stopped by calling out a rotation or rotating himself. When playing or watching live you see how important this defensive communication is ESPECIALLY in the three ball era as one late rotation turns the game against a team like GS. One of the reasons old Stockton (37-40) was still impactful defensively even as a small guard is because he called out the rotations. Neither Giannis nor Kawhi are the vocal defensive QBs James is. On top of all this energy, he was tasked with running the offense and being the **** creator.

When I watch those Finals I see Tristan Thompson communicating defensively. Kevin Love is communicating. RJ is communicating. And yes, Lebron is communicating as well and he's very good at it. Acting like he's the one with the controller moving defensive pieces around the court is way overstating it. As an off ball, weakside, back line defender he's often in a good position to see the play unfold, but it's also another way of saying he's often not directly involved with the play (backed up by tracking) and so giving him all the credit for other players getting stops seems pretty disingenuous.

The Warriors actively avoided LeBron because the rest of the Cavs were weak or average defenders.

No, the Warriors avoided Lebron because he was often camping out on Harrison Barnes and Iggy. Why bring your least talented offensive player (and Lebron) into your primary offensive actions?

Nobody else really played minutes. THis group held an all time great +8.1 rORtg team with a GOAT offensive player having a GOAT season to basically nothing over a three game stretch. How was it done? Great defensive energy, Love and TT playing above their heads, and an all-time great defensive performance from James.

Also because that GOAT offensive player had a partially torn MCL, their PG (Draymond) was suspended one of those games, and yes, because Cavs team executed a very good defensive strategy (i.e. Shump and JR face guarding Steph everywhere and bet he couldn't get free on a bum knee).

One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence

I note that no one other than shotcreator (who basically just claimed it was bad faith lol) has even bothered to tackle the Tristan Thompson stuff I posted.

I acknowledge that Lebron played well defensively. He was tremendous helping coordinate defense and shutting down Warriors 4th and 5th option guys and those plays made a difference. Tristan made just as big if not more of a difference defensively that series. He was the one with the big defensive workload.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#227 » by homecourtloss » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:18 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Reading some of these replies stating Lebron > Giannis defensively despite massive differences in defensive responsibility and volume, I assume all you guys voted Kawhi over Rudy Gobert for DPOY this season.

Edit: my analogy is dumb because Kawhi actually guards first options.

Volume maybe, but responsibility, no. Lebron was calling the defensive plays, telling players where to be, calling the rotations that needed to be 100% dialed in the entire game or otherwise, Curry or Klay get off a few open ones and the game completely changes since they were so tightly contested. You’re looking at contests, but these numbers don’t count the actions James stopped by calling out a rotation or rotating himself. When playing or watching live you see how important this defensive communication is ESPECIALLY in the three ball era as one late rotation turns the game against a team like GS. One of the reasons old Stockton (37-40) was still impactful defensively even as a small guard is because he called out the rotations. Neither Giannis nor Kawhi are the vocal defensive QBs James is. On top of all this energy, he was tasked with running the offense and being the **** creator.

When I watch those Finals I see Tristan Thompson communicating defensively. Kevin Love is communicating. RJ is communicating. And yes, Lebron is communicating as well and he's very good at it. Acting like he's the one with the controller moving defensive pieces around the court is way overstating it. As an off ball, weakside, back line defender he's often in a good position to see the play unfold, but it's also another way of saying he's often not directly involved with the play (backed up by tracking) and so giving him all the credit for other players getting stops seems pretty disingenuous.

The Warriors actively avoided LeBron because the rest of the Cavs were weak or average defenders.

No, the Warriors avoided Lebron because he was often camping out on Harrison Barnes and Iggy. Why bring your least talented offensive player (and Lebron) into your primary offensive actions?

Nobody else really played minutes. THis group held an all time great +8.1 rORtg team with a GOAT offensive player having a GOAT season to basically nothing over a three game stretch. How was it done? Great defensive energy, Love and TT playing above their heads, and an all-time great defensive performance from James.

Also because that GOAT offensive player had a partially torn MCL, their PG (Draymond) was suspended one of those games, and yes, because Cavs team executed a very good defensive strategy (i.e. Shump and JR face guarding Steph everywhere and bet he couldn't get free on a bum knee).

One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence

I note that no one other than shotcreator (who basically just claimed it was bad faith lol) has even bothered to tackle the Tristan Thompson stuff I posted.

I acknowledge that Lebron played well defensively. He was tremendous shutting down Warriors 4th and 5th option guys and those plays made a difference. Tristan made just as big if not more of a difference defensively that series.


You didn’t really address anything. You’ve basically dismissed all evidence with “Curry was injured” even though seemed to do really well with James out and in plenty of games since he returned and “James was guarding Iggy and Barnes” even though On-OFF suggests something deeper than that including 2/13 shooting at the rim over the final three games. Seems pointless to discuss.

There are no other Finals stretches, playoffs stretches or 3 game stretches like the one James had in an 8 year sample of tracking data, certainly not for a number 1 option. You’re dismissing something massive with “Curry injured, no Draymond, Iggy and Barnes bad on offense, Cavs played well defensively.”

Ok.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#228 » by VanWest82 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:21 pm

falcolombardi wrote:one doubt

is this about possesions where kawhi actively guarded doncic or about all the time both were on court together including possesions where kawhi switches off him or where the ball didnt go through luka?

cause if kawhi switching off him and luka scoring doesnt count as part of kawhi defense on him thay is a potential issue with the data

kawhi letting luka get switched into beverley or zubac (which by memory happened kinda often in thst series) shouldnt go in kawhi favor (assuming it happened enough to skew the data


You're right that the data isn't perfect. Surely there are possessions baked in there where there was some switching, but even in those cases that requires running a play to rub Kawhi off which uses up shot clock, sometimes it doesn't work the first time, etc.

Did you watch the Clippers vs Mavs series, or Raptors vs. Bucks? I know it can be knee jerk sometimes to just disregard eye test but there is ZERO CHANCE you watch every min of those series and come away thinking Kawhi isn't perhaps the best defender in the league when he decides to be. He completely changed both those series with his defense and it wasn't the subjective he QB'd everything from the baseline variety - it was he kept taking the ball away from the other team's best player variety.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#229 » by 70sFan » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:28 pm

Alright, let's use Deandre Ayton numbers from the finals:

Overall: 40.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.3%, -11.7%
Threes: 24.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 33.9%, -9.6%
Twos: 46.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.6%, -12.9%
<6ft: 44.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 69.1%, -24.2%

You know what's the difference is between Ayton's performance and James one? Ayton defended 20.5 DFGA per game - twice as much as James. He was also the main defender on Giannis, he didn't defend Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green. He defended Giannis's 10.3 FGA and reduced him to 55.5 TS%.

Let's take another Ayton's series - against ATG Clippers offense that was built to run centers off the floor:

Overall: 30.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.8%, -17.2%
Threes: 25.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 41.5%, -16.5%
Twos: 34.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.6%, -18.0%
<6ft: 36.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 58.3%, -22.3%

He shut down PG and Reggie Jackson, holding them both to below 30 FG%.

We can also take his series vs Nuggets, when he faced MVP Jokic - one of the best offensive players ever at his peak. He hold him to 43 TS% when he guarded him.

Unfortunately, we don't have such data available for pre-2014, but I'm sure that players like Duncan, Garnett, Hakeem and others have even better series than that.

James had extremely impressive defensive performance in the finals, but calling it GOAT-level defense because he looks good (but not better than someone like Ayton) in tracking data isn't a good argument. By the way, if we run the same data for 2020 James, he looks below average - so be consistent with your evaluation at least.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#230 » by VanWest82 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:33 pm

homecourtloss wrote:You didn’t really address anything. You’ve basically dismissed all evidence with “Curry was injured” even though seemed to do really well with James out and in plenty of games since he returned and “James was guarding Iggy and Barnes” even though On-OFF suggests something deeper than that including 2/13 shooting at the rim over the final three games. Seems pointless to discuss.

And you're dismissing the fact that Lebron's wowy stats with Tristan combined with Tristan's huge volume edge in number of plays impacted suggest he was at least if not more responsible for what transpired on that end of the court.

Edit: just to quickly make the point again Lebron's DRTG in 83 mins w/out Tristan vs. Warriors was 121 (vs. 95 DRTG w TT). That's at least a sample size we can take something away from unlike Curry's tiny 13 shot sample w/out Lebron.

There are no other Finals stretches, playoffs stretches or 3 game stretches like the one James had in an 8 year sample of tracking data, certainly not for a number 1 option. You’re dismissing something massive with “Curry injured, no Draymond, Iggy and Barnes bad on offense, Cavs played well defensively.”

Ok.

Again, who was shooting those shots that Lebron was guarding cause I don't recall it being Klay and Steph? I'm not say Lebron wasn't great in those games. I'm saying Giannis's edge in defensive volume in game 6 > Lebron's defensive efficiency on much lower volume (pick your game) in a weakside, back line help role where he was mainly guarding Harrison Barnes and Iggy.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#231 » by 70sFan » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:36 pm

Also - Kevin Love also looked like a GOAT defender in the 2016 finals when you look at these stats.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#232 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:49 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:one doubt

is this about possesions where kawhi actively guarded doncic or about all the time both were on court together including possesions where kawhi switches off him or where the ball didnt go through luka?

cause if kawhi switching off him and luka scoring doesnt count as part of kawhi defense on him thay is a potential issue with the data

kawhi letting luka get switched into beverley or zubac (which by memory happened kinda often in thst series) shouldnt go in kawhi favor (assuming it happened enough to skew the data


You're right that the data isn't perfect. Surely there are possessions baked in there where there was some switching, but even in those cases that requires running a play to rub Kawhi off which uses up shot clock, sometimes it doesn't work the first time, etc.

Did you watch the Clippers vs Mavs series, or Raptors vs. Bucks? I know it can be knee jerk sometimes to just disregard eye test but there is ZERO CHANCE you watch every min of those series and come away thinking Kawhi isn't perhaps the best defender in the league when he decides to be. He completely changed both those series with his defense and it wasn't the subjective he QB'd everything from the baseline variety - it was he kept taking the ball away from the other team's best player variety.


i dont remember 2019 series that much so i didnt comment on that, i take your word there

but ir watched most clippers vs mavs games and my most constante impression is that clippers were doing an awful job defensively

part of thst being luka talent but i also got the impression they were playing awful defense on him. consisntently giving him mismatches (beverley, zubac) to exploit

i dont know how much of ir was kawhi or george fautl (maybe they were giving all those bad switches to conserve energy?) vs lue fault (did he think switching was the best idea despite how much luka was torching them?)

but i got away from it very underwhelmed by the defense of kawhi and george (granted it may have been a tactical mistake rather thsn their fsult)
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#233 » by VanWest82 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:57 pm

falcolombardi wrote:i dont remember 2019 series that much so i didnt comment on that, i take your word there

but ir watched most clippers vs mavs games and my most constante impression is that clippers were doing an awful job defensively

part of thst being luka talent but i also got the impression they were playing awful defense on him. consisntently giving him mismatches (beverley, zubac) to exploit

i dont know how much of ir was kawhi or george fautl (maybe they were giving all those bad switches to conserve energy?) vs lue fault (did he think switching was the best idea despite how much luka was torching them?)

but i got away from it very underwhelmed by the defense of kawhi and george (granted it may have been a tactical mistake rather thsn their fsult)


They were similar imo in that the further the series went along the greater the effort Kawhi made to stay attached to Giannis/Luka, and the more disruptive he was to their games. Kawhi's defense on Luka in games 6&7 was definitely the deciding factor in Clippers advancing imo. Luka was just destroying everyone not named Kahwi. As an aside, Luka is sooo freaking good.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#234 » by Greyhound » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:32 pm

70sFan wrote:Alright, let's use Deandre Ayton numbers from the finals:

Overall: 40.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.3%, -11.7%
Threes: 24.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 33.9%, -9.6%
Twos: 46.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.6%, -12.9%
<6ft: 44.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 69.1%, -24.2%

You know what's the difference is between Ayton's performance and James one? Ayton defended 20.5 DFGA per game - twice as much as James. He was also the main defender on Giannis, he didn't defend Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green. He defended Giannis's 10.3 FGA and reduced him to 55.5 TS%.

Let's take another Ayton's series - against ATG Clippers offense that was built to run centers off the floor:

Overall: 30.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.8%, -17.2%
Threes: 25.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 41.5%, -16.5%
Twos: 34.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.6%, -18.0%
<6ft: 36.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 58.3%, -22.3%

He shut down PG and Reggie Jackson, holding them both to below 30 FG%.

We can also take his series vs Nuggets, when he faced MVP Jokic - one of the best offensive players ever at his peak. He hold him to 43 TS% when he guarded him.

Unfortunately, we don't have such data available for pre-2014, but I'm sure that players like Duncan, Garnett, Hakeem and others have even better series than that.

James had extremely impressive defensive performance in the finals, but calling it GOAT-level defense because he looks good (but not better than someone like Ayton) in tracking data isn't a good argument. By the way, if we run the same data for 2020 James, he looks below average - so be consistent with your evaluation at least.

This is disingenuous fraudulent analysis.

All of those numbers look nice, but comparing a wing to a true center in contest volume is ridiculous. There are other means by which one can provide defensive impact beyond contest volume.

You state who LeBron was guarding as some smoking gun, as though LeBron is a defensive stopper you assign to a particular man (just to take that individual out of the game). His strongest impact as a defender is actually as a roaming defender who contests multiple individuals (blowing up plays) beyond his own man’s production. Who he was defending against the Warriors is irrelevant. What matters is what his defensive impact was on the opposing teams offense.

The numbers show it clearly

As a roaming defender in that series, LeBron was able to amplify the defensive impact of his other teammates. Tristan Thompson and Kevin love we’re not anchoring the defense (LOL), it was LeBron.

Giannis is a more consistent and impactful defender by nature of the position that he plays. That being said, I think LeBron’s defensive performance against the Warriors in 2016 was incredible. In the various alignments of small ball lineups played in that series he essentially defended as a big (more often then not).

I would rate it higher than Giannis’s defensive performance against the Suns simply by virtue of the competition faced.

Spearheading a defensive effort that shut down a 73 win team (one of the greatest offenses of all time) is a more impressive accomplishment then shutting down the Phoenix Suns.

That’s just my two cents.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#235 » by 70sFan » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:46 pm

Greyhound wrote:
70sFan wrote:Alright, let's use Deandre Ayton numbers from the finals:

Overall: 40.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.3%, -11.7%
Threes: 24.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 33.9%, -9.6%
Twos: 46.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.6%, -12.9%
<6ft: 44.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 69.1%, -24.2%

You know what's the difference is between Ayton's performance and James one? Ayton defended 20.5 DFGA per game - twice as much as James. He was also the main defender on Giannis, he didn't defend Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green. He defended Giannis's 10.3 FGA and reduced him to 55.5 TS%.

Let's take another Ayton's series - against ATG Clippers offense that was built to run centers off the floor:

Overall: 30.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.8%, -17.2%
Threes: 25.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 41.5%, -16.5%
Twos: 34.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.6%, -18.0%
<6ft: 36.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 58.3%, -22.3%

He shut down PG and Reggie Jackson, holding them both to below 30 FG%.

We can also take his series vs Nuggets, when he faced MVP Jokic - one of the best offensive players ever at his peak. He hold him to 43 TS% when he guarded him.

Unfortunately, we don't have such data available for pre-2014, but I'm sure that players like Duncan, Garnett, Hakeem and others have even better series than that.

James had extremely impressive defensive performance in the finals, but calling it GOAT-level defense because he looks good (but not better than someone like Ayton) in tracking data isn't a good argument. By the way, if we run the same data for 2020 James, he looks below average - so be consistent with your evaluation at least.

This is disingenuous fraudulent analysis.

All of those numbers look nice, but comparing a wing to a true center in contest volume is ridiculous. There are other means by which to have defensive impact beyond contest volume.

You state who LeBron was guarding as some smoking gun, as though LeBron is a defensive stopper you assign to a particular man (just to take that individual out of the game). His strongest impact as a defender is actually as a roaming defender who contests multiple individuals (blowing up plays) beyond his own man’s production. Who he was defending against the Warriors is irrelevant. What matters is what his defensive impact was on the opposing teams offense.

The numbers show it clearly

As a roaming defender in that series, LeBron was able to amplify the defensive impact of his other teammates. Tristan Thompson and Kevin love we’re not anchoring the defense (LOL), it was LeBron.

Giannis is a more consistent and impactful defender by nature of the position that he plays. That being said, I think LeBron’s defensive performance against the Warriors in 2016 was incredible. In the various alignments of small ball lineups played in that series he essentially defended as a big (more often then not).

I would rate it higher than Giannis’s performance against the Suns simply by virtue of the competition faced.

Spearheading a defensive effort that shut down a 73 win team (one of the greatest offenses of all time) is a more impressive accomplishment then shutting down the Phoenix Suns.

That’s just my two cents.

I'm well aware that contest volume and FG% differential isn't everything - I literally said that a few post ago. Some posters stated that this LeBron performance is untouchable and used these stats as an argument, so I simply provided another piece of data.

I never tried to downgrade James defensive performance in 2016 finals, but saying that it's GOAT level defensive performance is way too much.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#236 » by bondom34 » Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:13 am

Quick article I just saw on some of his improvements. Think this may not have even been his best season, but he's added some ability and roundedness that wasn't there before and this highlights that spin move in game 6 (which tbh I didn't know he had).

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MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#237 » by Colbinii » Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:22 pm

70sFan wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:It's not the first debate about LeBron's defense in 2016. I don't think any of sides will change their minds after another empty discussion.


One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.

Tracking data is extremely noisy, especially at such a small sample of size. Let's assume that it paints fair picture though - we all know how man defense is generally overrated in casual discussions, why do we start to worship it when James looks good by that criteria?


I agree the data can be noisy--but its still data that we should be using to help us see things our eyes can not.

Man defense can be overrated but he see LeBron not defending as many shots as VanWest points out, yet his on/off defensive numbers are off the charts (and its not a small sample because we have seen this over dozens of series of samples for LeBron) and frankly, it isn't about worshipping LeBron.

This is about someone say "Hey, wait a minute, maybe LeBron in a select few Finals games was actually better than Giannis." Then the group who disagrees with the notion that LeBron is better than Giannis defensively, mind you the original take wasn't LeBron is better than Giannis defensively but instead was about a small sample of games showing LeBron was better than Giannis during the small sample, starts getting all upset calling blasphemy.

Two things can be true at once.

1) Giannis is a better defender over any larger sample size than LeBron.

2) LeBron had a stretch of games where he matched or exceeded Giannis' level of play defensively.

edit: My grammar and spelling is bad here, my apologies.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#238 » by sansterre » Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:30 pm

Colbinii wrote:Two things can be true at once.

1) Giannis is a better defender over any larger sample size than LeBron.

2) LeBron had a stretch of games where he matched or exceeded Giannis' level of play defensively.

Without weighing in on any hypothetical right answer, I really appreciate the clarity of thought in this phrasing.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#239 » by Colbinii » Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:33 pm

sansterre wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Two things can be true at once.

1) Giannis is a better defender over any larger sample size than LeBron.

2) LeBron had a stretch of games where he matched or exceeded Giannis' level of play defensively.

Without weighing in on any hypothetical right answer, I really appreciate the clarity of thought in this phrasing.


I'm also refraining from entering the discussion on providing an answer but it is important that discussion on here becomes more than two ships passing in the night.
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Re: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread 

Post#240 » by JulesWinnfield » Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:20 pm

There is a new book on Giannis dropping shortly, one of the stories in it made it’s way out and I thought I’d share

It’s nice to know Greek freak was thinking bigger than some members of the organization in regards to his future as a young player… so they’re playing Portland in his first or second year, they’re in warmups and an assistant coach pulls Giannis aside…. “You see that guy over there?” the coach says as he points over at Nic Batum going through drills… “if you work hard and approach the game the right way, take to coaching etc, you can wind up being a Nic Batum type player and make a good career out of this for yourself, pay close attention to him.” Giannis looking puzzled and almost insulted said back to him “coach, if I’m Nic Batum I’m going back to Greece.” Lol. This was 2014 or 2015

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