2021-22 Season/Offseason Speculation

[Barkley6]

It really comes down to what Chris wants. Does he want a ton more millions, yet waste away his chances to get to the finals again (I don't think the Suns get back there without upgrades all around our roster), or does he want to be on a team that he could take to the finals again. If its the latter, then he takes less to get the players we need to get there.

I think CP3 knows this team is about a good a chance as any to get back to the finals. The Lakers, Clippers, Utah and Denver will be threats (I need to see what Klay looks like after two years out of basketball before I fear GSW), but I do think we have just as good a chance as any of them as currently constructed for the following reasons.

1. The Lakers are always one AD injury away, and AD has not shown he can stay healthy. LeBron has also started to see some wear and tear. When healthy they are incredible, but will they ever both be healthy long enough to stay competitive? They also aren't in a great position cap wise to significantly improve their supporting cast.

2. The Clippers are going to be without Kawhi for most, if not all of the season. That is going to hurt them in the regular season and likely draw them a tough first round matchup. If Jackson doesn't come back they are going to really struggle to get scoring off their bench as currently constructed.

3. Utah will be good again, but we match up with them very well. Plain and simple, I think we have a better overall roster.

4. Denver will be better with Murray back, but again, I don't think they'll be good enough to beat us in a 7 game without other major moves. Would that series have been different with Murray? Absolutely. But it would have been Suns in 6 instead of Suns in 4.

If CP3 is truly invested in winning a championship, and I think he is, I don't see anywhere he'll have a better chance at it than in Phoenix. What other team could he go to that would give him a better chance to get a ring? In the East, only the Knicks could afford him and even if they added him, I don't think it makes them better than Philly, Milwaukee or Brooklyn. None of the top teams in the West can make him anywhere close to a comparable offer and they don't have the young talented core that we do.

To sum it up: We can offer him $25 million a season and that's still double what he'd make with the Lakers, and he'd have as good of a chance here, if not a better one, to win the championship.

I don't think there is any chance he leaves, and I think there is a good chance he takes a discount for more years.

[Slim Charless]

Another big I'd love to grab is Thiess from Chicago and formally Boston. I loved his game back with the Celtics, he'd be a great vet bigman that could be had cheaply this summer.

[Desertfox]

I've been on the Theis bandwagon ever since we didn't get him at the trade deadline. Him or Larry Nance Jr would be perfect off the bench bigs.

[bwgood77]

It really comes down to what Chris wants. Does he want a ton more millions, yet waste away his chances to get to the finals again (I don't think the Suns get back there without upgrades all around our roster), or does he want to be on a team that he could take to the finals again. If its the latter, then he takes less to get the players we need to get there.

Not one of those people that say players shouldn't take whatever they can get... that said - if he likes the team, he likes the direction - maybe there is something where he takes a good deal but allows the Suns exposure to the lux penalties lessened. I don't know what numbers that would be (3/85, 3/90)

Like BWG has said - it would almost be better he if opted in and took a "wink wink" deal next year

We can extend if he opts in too. Give him the other $50 or whatever so the cap hit is lower after new contracts for the young guys kick in.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Another big I'd love to grab is Thiess from Chicago and formally Boston. I loved his game back with the Celtics, he'd be a great vet bigman that could be had cheaply this summer.

I like Theis too and wouldn't be opposed to signing him. The only real negative is he's only 6'8 and I would kind of like them to add a bigger guy to help with certain matchups.

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[Slim Charless]

Another big I'd love to grab is Thiess from Chicago and formally Boston. I loved his game back with the Celtics, he'd be a great vet bigman that could be had cheaply this summer.

I like Theis too and wouldn't be opposed to signing him. The only real negative is he's only 6'8 and I would kind of like them to add a bigger guy to help with certain matchups.

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He seems to play bigger though. I remember seeing annoy the hell out of Embiid a few yrs ago. Biid got his numbers but he had to work for them. He brings that here and that be fine for 15 min a game or so.

[spanishninja]

It really comes down to what Chris wants. Does he want a ton more millions, yet waste away his chances to get to the finals again (I don't think the Suns get back there without upgrades all around our roster), or does he want to be on a team that he could take to the finals again. If its the latter, then he takes less to get the players we need to get there.

I think CP3 knows this team is about a good a chance as any to get back to the finals. The Lakers, Clippers, Utah and Denver will be threats (I need to see what Klay looks like after two years out of basketball before I fear GSW), but I do think we have just as good a chance as any of them as currently constructed for the following reasons.

1. The Lakers are always one AD injury away, and AD has not shown he can stay healthy. LeBron has also started to see some wear and tear. When healthy they are incredible, but will they ever both be healthy long enough to stay competitive? They also aren't in a great position cap wise to significantly improve their supporting cast.

2. The Clippers are going to be without Kawhi for most, if not all of the season. That is going to hurt them in the regular season and likely draw them a tough first round matchup. If Jackson doesn't come back they are going to really struggle to get scoring off their bench as currently constructed.

3. Utah will be good again, but we match up with them very well. Plain and simple, I think we have a better overall roster.

4. Denver will be better with Murray back, but again, I don't think they'll be good enough to beat us in a 7 game without other major moves. Would that series have been different with Murray? Absolutely. But it would have been Suns in 6 instead of Suns in 4.

If CP3 is truly invested in winning a championship, and I think he is, I don't see anywhere he'll have a better chance at it than in Phoenix. What other team could he go to that would give him a better chance to get a ring? In the East, only the Knicks could afford him and even if they added him, I don't think it makes them better than Philly, Milwaukee or Brooklyn. None of the top teams in the West can make him anywhere close to a comparable offer and they don't have the young talented core that we do.

To sum it up: We can offer him $25 million a season and that's still double what he'd make with the Lakers, and he'd have as good of a chance here, if not a better one, to win the championship.

I don't think there is any chance he leaves, and I think there is a good chance he takes a discount for more years.

I think the most important thing is that CP3 can't really blame the rest of the Suns for not winning the championship. In fact, his personal failure was the biggest reason for this, so he can't really use the narrative of finding better teammates to go to another team.

[enigmatics]

I think the most important thing is that CP3 can't really blame the rest of the Suns for not winning the championship. In fact, his personal failure was the biggest reason for this, so he can't really use the narrative of finding better teammates to go to another team.

His frail body is also a reason. That guy literally just can't say healthy. Even after coasting thru the regular season he somehow found a way to get hurt in the playoffs.

If he re-signs, I pray he can pull off another blemish free regular season - but what are the odds and at that age?

[Frank Lee]

Am I the only one that sees Paul as the one that’s mucking up our future ? Enigs is right. Go ahead and pay him his contract price this year… But from then out, he’s yr to yr at the MLE. It helps put a better team around him… And if he doesn’t like that… we move in the new younger CP.

I’m very leery of last legging vets, especially expensive ones.

[Frank Lee]

PS
If we pay him his 45 million this year… And then the MLE of nine and nine the following two… Thats 60+ million over three… Only it’s tremendously frontloaded

Am I missing something with this plan?

[dremill24]

PS
If we pay him his 45 million this year… And then the MLE of nine and nine the following two… Thats 60+ million over three… Only it’s tremendously frontloaded

Am I missing something with this plan?

I think what you're missing is hes likely going to want 1.5x to double that amount.

[Slim Charless]

Am I the only one that sees Paul as the one that’s mucking up our future ? Enigs is right. Go ahead and pay him his contract price this year… But from then out, he’s yr to yr at the MLE. It helps put a better team around him… And if he doesn’t like that… we move in the new younger CP.

I’m very leery of last legging vets, especially expensive ones.

Cool, so who's that new younger HOF point guard that we'll find? Keep in mind we have low draft picks and other teams aren't just gonna trade us their guy for Saric and a couple of 2nds.

I'd love to have the 22 year version of Chris Paul. Do you have a name by chance so I can Google him and maybe get a head start on ordering his jersey?

[Frank Lee]

Cam Payne

Don’t get hung up on Paul’s career achievements…

[Slim Charless]

Cam Payne

Don’t get hung up on Paul’s career achievements…

I mean....I like Cam too but come on, Chris Paul was [*]slightly[*] better at the same age. I think we can agree on that.....?

[Blonde]

Am I incorrect on this or do we have non-bird rights for Payne? We signed him off the scrap heap at the end of last year so we can’t go over the cap signing him unless we dip into one of our exceptions. I believe you need 2 years under contract before a team can exercise full bird rights beyond 120% of the previous salary. It’s rare that a team would need to give a player in that situation a big raise, but I think that’s where we’re at with Payne. Craig too maybe?

[enigmatics]

Am I the only one that sees Paul as the one that’s mucking up our future ? Enigs is right. Go ahead and pay him his contract price this year… But from then out, he’s yr to yr at the MLE. It helps put a better team around him… And if he doesn’t like that… we move in the new younger CP.

I’m very leery of last legging vets, especially expensive ones.

It's a rough spot to be in. Paul elevated this team from bubble boys to Finals runner ups. Yet, at the same time he eventually physically wore down (Lakers series, Bucks series). Consider that last point along with the fact he's going to be another year older and the 2021-2022 season starts in what - 2months?

Now the fanbase is rabid because we just got a sweet, sweet taste of a contender and I'm sure the Paul camp knows it and likely to milk it for everything it's worth. Then to make matters worse we have an owner who has twilighted around as a miser at various points during tenure as Suns owner, so who knows what kind of personnel dominos will fall if he gets squeezed by Paul.

Grrrrrrrr. This is why it's so frustrating to not have closed out the Bucks.

[bwgood77]

Am I the only one that sees Paul as the one that’s mucking up our future ? Enigs is right. Go ahead and pay him his contract price this year… But from then out, he’s yr to yr at the MLE. It helps put a better team around him… And if he doesn’t like that… we move in the new younger CP.

I’m very leery of last legging vets, especially expensive ones.

No, I have felt that way since we traded for him and wished we had addressed PG of the future. However, I don't see a better alternative. I hope he opts in and I would also prefer that.

I wouldn't want him to walk though if we wouldn't give him more than 1 year and NY was giving him 3/90. I've watched this team be bad enough that I would prefer to pay him a year extra when he was declining to not having him at all.

Don't forget, before that last game Payne was horrible in the finals. Shooting 40% and 25% the first 5 games. A 44% TS%.

Payne can get this team to the playoffs (I think) but we would be a low seed barring a bunch of injuries to other teams...but if he got hurt we've seen how good we are without a PG. Rubio couldn't get us to the playoffs. Payne might be better....but I am not sure I'd go that far.

The LA teams, GS, Utah, Denver, Dallas and possibly Portland would probably all be better than us without Paul. And maybe Memphis...they were missing JJJ all year and Ja and others for a lot of it and still go the 8 seed.

Ultimately, I probably offer him a $20 year 1 year extension for him to opt in...maybe $25...unless he would opt in without it. But if he was going to sign with the Knicks unless we gave him 3 years I'd rather go that route. I'm sure we will have a plan in place after that...and even a severely declining CP3 is better than most anyone. He was 4th in MVP and had his best season in like 5 years and shot the hell out of the ball in the finals while averaging over 8 assists per game against an extremely tough defense.

Without him we would have been swept in the finals no question. Ayton played well but Book shot 38% and 12.5% from 3. Ayton had a big game with 22/19. He was solid in game 2 as well...held us in there until Book got hot in the 2nd half. In the 3rd it was tough because Book shot 21%. He was poor in game 4 though. Keyed our comeback in game 5 and kept us in there in game 6. Can't really let him go just yet.

[bwgood77]

Am I incorrect on this or do we have non-bird rights for Payne? We signed him off the scrap heap at the end of last year so we can’t go over the cap signing him unless we dip into one of our exceptions. I believe you need 2 years under contract before a team can exercise full bird rights beyond 120% of the previous salary. It’s rare that a team would need to give a player in that situation a big raise, but I think that’s where we’re at with Payne. Craig too maybe?

No, it's been written about several times in various places...Bobby Marks for one. I think we have what is called early bird rights. Anyway, we can offer him like 150% of his previous salary or the average player salary in the NBA, which is like a little over $10 million even if over the cap without using an exception.

[lilfishi22]

Am I incorrect on this or do we have non-bird rights for Payne? We signed him off the scrap heap at the end of last year so we can’t go over the cap signing him unless we dip into one of our exceptions. I believe you need 2 years under contract before a team can exercise full bird rights beyond 120% of the previous salary. It’s rare that a team would need to give a player in that situation a big raise, but I think that’s where we’re at with Payne. Craig too maybe?

We have early Bird Rights which is more limiting than full bird rights. You need to have been with the team for more than 2 years to get full Bird Rights.

Great summary from David Kevin on the Suns offseason options
https://thefourpointplay.substack.com/p/vol2-iss24-the-nerd-letter-run-it

Early Bird Rights - reserved for players who don’t meet the Full Bird Rights criteria, as they have only been on the roster for 2 years.

The reason I wanted to include Abdel Nader here was to just use him as an example. Nader is actually a Full Bird Rights candidate.

The first option with Early Bird Rights is to offer up to 175% of the previous seasons salary, if you want to give them a small bump. So in the case of a player like Nader, the Suns could take his 20/21 salary of $1,752,950 & start his 21/22 salary at $3,067,662.

Now it’s time for the real Early Bird - Cam Payne, come on down!

The key with Cam is that with the Suns acting ‘Over The Cap’, they don’t have any means to replace Payne if they lose him. Especially not without using a mechanism that could sign another player instead. But giving Payne a 75% raise on his minimum salary from last year isn't going to cut it either. That’s just $3,459,769 in Year 1.

Never fear, there is another option with Early Bird Rights. The Suns can offer Cam 105% of the Average NBA Salary last season. That number won’t be completely known for a little while, but I can tell you it will be close to $10 Million. Meaning Payne’s starting salary can be $10,500,000 with 8% raises & up to 4 years in length.

Monte Morris signed an extension last off-season worth a tad over $27 Million for 3 years. I think that’s a pretty good starting point.

[bigfoot]

Am I the only one that sees Paul as the one that’s mucking up our future ? Enigs is right. Go ahead and pay him his contract price this year… But from then out, he’s yr to yr at the MLE. It helps put a better team around him… And if he doesn’t like that… we move in the new younger CP.

I’m very leery of last legging vets, especially expensive ones.

No, I have felt that way since we traded for him and wished we had addressed PG of the future. However, I don't see a better alternative. I hope he opts in and I would also prefer that.

I wouldn't want him to walk though if we wouldn't give him more than 1 year and NY was giving him 3/90. I've watched this team be bad enough that I would prefer to pay him a year extra when he was declining to not having him at all.

Don't forget, before that last game Payne was horrible in the finals. Shooting 40% and 25% the first 5 games. A 44% TS%.

Payne can get this team to the playoffs (I think) but we would be a low seed barring a bunch of injuries to other teams...but if he got hurt we've seen how good we are without a PG. Rubio couldn't get us to the playoffs. Payne might be better....but I am not sure I'd go that far.

The LA teams, GS, Utah, Denver, Dallas and possibly Portland would probably all be better than us without Paul. And maybe Memphis...they were missing JJJ all year and Ja and others for a lot of it and still go the 8 seed.

Ultimately, I probably offer him a $20 year 1 year extension for him to opt in...maybe $25...unless he would opt in without it. But if he was going to sign with the Knicks unless we gave him 3 years I'd rather go that route. I'm sure we will have a plan in place after that...and even a severely declining CP3 is better than most anyone. He was 4th in MVP and had his best season in like 5 years and shot the hell out of the ball in the finals while averaging over 8 assists per game against an extremely tough defense.

Without him we would have been swept in the finals no question. Ayton played well but Book shot 38% and 12.5% from 3. Ayton had a big game with 22/19. He was solid in game 2 as well...held us in there until Book got hot in the 2nd half. In the 3rd it was tough because Book shot 21%. He was poor in game 4 though. Keyed our comeback in game 5 and kept us in there in game 6. Can't really let him go just yet.

CP3 at 35 got us to the finals. Nash at 35 lost in the WCF. Afterward, Nash put in two more quality seasons for the Suns before he was traded to the Lakers. Get Paul to opt-in and offer him 27M for year two and 25M for year 3 which would be a team option with some guaranteed money ($7M). That's a 100M contract of which $80M is guaranteed. The worst case is he becomes a super bench sub ala Melo, Derrick Rose, Milsap, Griffin, etc.