Evan Mobley - USC

[clyde21]

The problem is more that he's closer to kind of skilled than extremely skilled (shooting splits pretty similar to Marvin Bagley, who is someone you're not just going to leave wide open but at the same time isn't going to kill you from behind the arc, and of course Bagley was quite a bit younger his freshman season) and then is not quite that AD/Giannis type of physical outlier. I think it's fair to say some of his defense (which was amazing at the college level) will be mitigated both by more potent spread offenses and the stronger bigs who will outrebound him, post him up, or screen him out of plays, and then if one of his main indicators of offensive skill is passing out of double teams, I'm not sure he's going to be that dominant around the basket to warrant doubles in the first place.

This is all true.

For some reason folks have chosen to convince themselves that a lot of work Mobley has ahead of him has already been completed. He's clearly got great upside, but they're envisioning him beyond where he is.

ain't no one suggesting that Mobley is a finished product by any means, not sure where you are getting that from.

[nolang1]

The problem is more that he's closer to kind of skilled than extremely skilled (shooting splits pretty similar to Marvin Bagley, who is someone you're not just going to leave wide open but at the same time isn't going to kill you from behind the arc, and of course Bagley was quite a bit younger his freshman season) and then is not quite that AD/Giannis type of physical outlier. I think it's fair to say some of his defense (which was amazing at the college level) will be mitigated both by more potent spread offenses and the stronger bigs who will outrebound him, post him up, or screen him out of plays, and then if one of his main indicators of offensive skill is passing out of double teams, I'm not sure he's going to be that dominant around the basket to warrant doubles in the first place.

This is all true.

For some reason folks have chosen to convince themselves that a lot of work Mobley has ahead of him has already been completed. He's clearly got great upside, but they're envisioning him beyond where he is.

All of what you're both saying makes sense if you're looking at him as staying this same size his entire career. I don't think anyone sees Mobes as a completed product or feels like he's a guarantee to complete what's necessary to get him to the level we envision him to be at. But why draft anyone if this is the mindset? Kind of the point is to predict what the investment would turn into and build your interest at the ground floor.

Most of what he can be will be predicated on whether or not he can add the necessary size to make any of what we're seeing viable at the next level. But even without the size he's a switchable defender with good rotational instincts on defense and someone at least worthy of trusting to make good decisions offensively. Not expecting defensive dominance day one, not expecting him to see doubles from the post or even be overtly effective on the block day one either, but you're also not drafting a finished product. The baseline he's coming in with, the translation of skill from one level to the next, and the things he does do well and what the improvement would look like is what you're drafting.

won't put him on the block for buckets until he gets rocks in his pocket but DHO into PnRs are doable, quick post on switches are doable, the occasional faceup from the elbow is doable. rebounding he's obviously going to have to get bigger to be truly effective but the other defensive aspects should translate fine with reps and exposure.

Yes and all of that potential improvement is holding more weight with the people who look at him as a freshman rather than a player who's the age of a sophomore. I'm talking about later on than year 1 anyways since most rookies aren't good year 1 and the degree to which they aren't good isn't that interesting to talk about.

[DCasey91]

According to the Lowe podcast OKC was targeting Mobley with their trade up with Detroit. Sam Presti certainly knows what's up.

Presti definitely has an eye for top talent either that or he’s a regular on this draft board.

Poku + Mobley + Shai is crazy good potential. Don’t know why they are looking to move Shai it’s well too early for any of that stuff imo.

A lot of people were hugely behind and loved Shai and it was quite abit of time before widespread media got a hold of it and still he didn’t get drafted high enough lol

[CptCrunch]

Watch on YouTube

This like feeling like a Doncic situation again.

Mobley is a can't miss prospect.

I really need my #2 team the Rockets to take "Moab" over Green. C'mon Rockets front office, read this post.

[DCasey91]

C. Bosh hybrid for comp sake:

- Scoring, Rebounding
+ Facilitating, All Round Defense
= Shooting but more emphasis due to modern meta

Players with size and skill are always the go. Bosh was nice as a franchise option and a key piece to a championship.

Honestly don’t see number one best player on a championship team for any prospect in this years draft.

But with Mobley sure I could see being a key part of one down the line.

Even with Cade/Green/Suggs are all equal to me with Mobley on the super high tier ancillary piece next to the Superstar just higher or lower on the NBA player range and my own team value as an individual player. I rate Mobley slightly above the others because bigs are bigs.

Size matters.

Main Board goes on and on about who is a better player. I’m more into team building practices and some higher ranked players i.e Towns for example is a super low ranking archetype to me actually one of the worst tbh. The literary on bad defensive bigs really doesn’t win you a lot of games in the end.

Can’t win with one player only in Basketball.

[NO-KG-AI]

Mobley has a lot of Tim in him, but he’s missing one of, if not the most important attributes Tim had: his lower body strength. Tim could establish deep post position against even big centers, and had the ability to move guys out of their spot at the 4 and 5. I don’t think Mobley will ever have that lower body strength.

I don’t think it’s as important for defense as it used to be, but he’ll need it if he wants to be a serious post presence, either as a passing hub, or as a go to scorer.

[clyde21]

Mobley lower body is gonna just fine when it fills out, he's got a lot of natural core strength already

[K_chile22]

The problem is more that he's closer to kind of skilled than extremely skilled (shooting splits pretty similar to Marvin Bagley, who is someone you're not just going to leave wide open but at the same time isn't going to kill you from behind the arc, and of course Bagley was quite a bit younger his freshman season) and then is not quite that AD/Giannis type of physical outlier. I think it's fair to say some of his defense (which was amazing at the college level) will be mitigated both by more potent spread offenses and the stronger bigs who will outrebound him, post him up, or screen him out of plays, and then if one of his main indicators of offensive skill is passing out of double teams, I'm not sure he's going to be that dominant around the basket to warrant doubles in the first place.

This is all true.

For some reason folks have chosen to convince themselves that a lot of work Mobley has ahead of him has already been completed. He's clearly got great upside, but they're envisioning him beyond where he is.

Yeah, the thing that ultimately had me lean Green is that passing is his only outlier offensive skill as a big that he actually has down pat rn, but like nolang said, so much of that came from doubles and he's just not going to be doubled in the NBA

[rolling_91]

You don't need an outlier offensive skill when you're that size with that athleticism. If you want an outlier skill it's his defense. He's not only able to switch out on wings but his quick jump ability is eye opening. He's like a lightning bolt. A lot of times he looks like he's too late and just out of position and then whomp, he cleans it. His sense of timing is unique. Reminds me of David Robinson. Probably better.

Anyway, none of the GMs with the top 3 picks is going to trade down simply because none of them want to be remembered as the GM who passed on Cunningham, Green or Mobley. It's too risky for their reputations.

[clyde21]

The problem is more that he's closer to kind of skilled than extremely skilled (shooting splits pretty similar to Marvin Bagley, who is someone you're not just going to leave wide open but at the same time isn't going to kill you from behind the arc, and of course Bagley was quite a bit younger his freshman season) and then is not quite that AD/Giannis type of physical outlier. I think it's fair to say some of his defense (which was amazing at the college level) will be mitigated both by more potent spread offenses and the stronger bigs who will outrebound him, post him up, or screen him out of plays, and then if one of his main indicators of offensive skill is passing out of double teams, I'm not sure he's going to be that dominant around the basket to warrant doubles in the first place.

This is all true.

For some reason folks have chosen to convince themselves that a lot of work Mobley has ahead of him has already been completed. He's clearly got great upside, but they're envisioning him beyond where he is.

Yeah, the thing that ultimately had me lean Green is that passing is his only outlier offensive skill as a big that he actually has down pat rn, but like nolang said, so much of that came from doubles and he's just not going to be doubled in the NBA

even if Mobley passing chops is his 'only outlier' skill, it's by far the hardest skill for a big to master, especially a big who projects as an elite defender on the other side of the court...how many of these guys are in the NBA today? i can't think of one...last ones I can think of are prime Gasol brothers...which is why I always end up going back to Pau Gasol being Mobley's best comp.

also...what outlier offensive skills did guys like Towns or Davis have coming out? at this point in his development you look for the building blocks of offensive skill + the overall potential package...Mobes has all the building blocks of being an elite offensive big eventually, and yes, that includes his passing which unlocks offense in spades in the right scheme/team.

[NO-KG-AI]

Mobley lower body is gonna just fine when it fills out, he's got a lot of natural core strength already

I don’t think it’ll be a problem, but Tim’s lower body strength was absolutely elite. It’s like trying to uproot a tree. It’s what made him truly scary down low IMO. His skills were impeccable, but without that power to unlock it, it wouldn’t be the same, and it’s part of why his balance and finishing was so amazing through contact.

I was skeptical of Davis offensively being over a 25 ppg kind of guy, but I don’t think Mobley is nearly as explosive, but he’s super smooth and fluid like Davis. Davis is maybe the easiest target in the league for lobs and dunks, and his ability to explode from a standstill vertically or on drives is next level. He draws a crap ton of fouls even with basic handles and so-so post game because his ability to pressure guys on sheer athleticism in a way I don’t see Mobley having.

KAT was way ahead of schedule shooting and skill wise than people expected cuz Cal hid his game and made him a defender(funny saying that now). But he was already skilled scorer that could play with the big boys when he was like 16.

Mobley isn’t quite their level as a prospect, but I agree he’s probably right on the cusp or in tier one for this class. Total stud, no real gaps in his game, and superstar potential in a few areas.

[nolang1]

You don't need an outlier offensive skill when you're that size with that athleticism. If you want an outlier skill it's his defense. He's not only able to switch out on wings...

You do in the sense that otherwise teams are just going to guard you with a wing player, and then against a 5-out offense you’re spending most of the time as simply a competent-to-good perimeter defender rather than an elite shotblocker.

[clyde21]

You don't need an outlier offensive skill when you're that size with that athleticism. If you want an outlier skill it's his defense. He's not only able to switch out on wings...

You do in the sense that otherwise teams are just going to guard you with a wing player, and then against a 5-out offense you’re spending most of the time as simply a competent-to-good perimeter defender rather than an elite shotblocker.

and would proceed to destroy the 5 out offense on the other end of the floor

[nolang1]

You don't need an outlier offensive skill when you're that size with that athleticism. If you want an outlier skill it's his defense. He's not only able to switch out on wings...

You do in the sense that otherwise teams are just going to guard you with a wing player, and then against a 5-out offense you’re spending most of the time as simply a competent-to-good perimeter defender rather than an elite shotblocker.

and would proceed to destroy the 5 out offense on the other end of the floor

Yes just like Porzingis does because he's taller than the other players. No need for strength or a post game.

[BlazersBroncos]

Yes just like Porzingis does because he's taller than the other players. No need for strength or a post game.

Mobley already has a functional hook shot and has shown some flashes of a fadeaway. He isnt going to play bully ball, but Davis doesnt really do that either.

AD was 6'10.5 and 222lbs coming out. Mobley is 7'0 and 215lbs. Thats not significant. Evan will put on weight.

Zinger has a narrow frame, a poor work ethic and easily gives up and drifts when pushed around. I dont think Evan comes from that same stock.

[clyde21]

You do in the sense that otherwise teams are just going to guard you with a wing player, and then against a 5-out offense you’re spending most of the time as simply a competent-to-good perimeter defender rather than an elite shotblocker.

and would proceed to destroy the 5 out offense on the other end of the floor

Yes just like Porzingis does because he's taller than the other players. No need for strength or a post game.

Porzingis could dominate inside against 5-out lineups if he wanted to, much more a matter of mentality than ability...and i just disagree with any idea that wings will be able to guard Mobley in a couple of years....Mobley's scoring/inside juice is being widely underrated at this point

[nolang1]

Yes just like Porzingis does because he's taller than the other players. No need for strength or a post game.

Mobley already has a functional hook shot and has shown some flashes of a fadeaway. He isnt going to play bully ball, but Davis doesnt really do that either.

AD was 6'10.5 and 222lbs coming out. Mobley is 7'0 and 215lbs. Thats not significant. Evan will put on weight.

Zinger has a narrow frame, a poor work ethic and easily gives up and drifts when pushed around. I dont think Evan comes from that same stock.

Mobley is closer to Porzingis than AD in terms of frame (I would say being lighter despite being an inch and a half taller is pretty significant), and it's a somewhat ironic comparison because even AD is hesitant to play center, which has kept him from ever seriously being in the best player conversation.

Plus AD was substantially younger as a freshman; the whole point of the age thing is that 'needs to get stronger' has been #1 on Mobley's list of areas for improvement for a while now and for him to still be thin at age 20 with however many extra months to work on it than the average-aged freshman makes it more likely he just doesn't have the frame to really bang inside since I have no reason to believe he's lazy or unaware of his weaknesses.

[clyde21]

Mobley lower body is gonna just fine when it fills out, he's got a lot of natural core strength already

I don’t think it’ll be a problem, but Tim’s lower body strength was absolutely elite. It’s like trying to uproot a tree. It’s what made him truly scary down low IMO. His skills were impeccable, but without that power to unlock it, it wouldn’t be the same, and it’s part of why his balance and finishing was so amazing through contact.

I was skeptical of Davis offensively being over a 25 ppg kind of guy, but I don’t think Mobley is nearly as explosive, but he’s super smooth and fluid like Davis. Davis is maybe the easiest target in the league for lobs and dunks, and his ability to explode from a standstill vertically or on drives is next level. He draws a crap ton of fouls even with basic handles and so-so post game because his ability to pressure guys on sheer athleticism in a way I don’t see Mobley having.

KAT was way ahead of schedule shooting and skill wise than people expected cuz Cal hid his game and made him a defender(funny saying that now). But he was already skilled scorer that could play with the big boys when he was like 16.

Mobley isn’t quite their level as a prospect, but I agree he’s probably right on the cusp or in tier one for this class. Total stud, no real gaps in his game, and superstar potential in a few areas.

i would have Mobley as a better prospect than Towns slightly, but overall this is fair

[CptCrunch]

Towns was a damn good prospect both on O and D. Some of his warning signs on D in college should have been red flags.

His offense turned out to be legendary. His defense much worse than expected.

In fact, Towns was a worse defender than Okafor statistically the first few seasons.

Star level centers that can't anchor defense (unless you are Jokic and can anchor an offense) don't have positive impact.

[tyguy]

Towns was a damn good prospect both on O and D. Some of his warning signs on D in college should have been red flags.

His offense turned out to be legendary. His defense much worse than expected.

In fact, Towns was a worse defender than Okafor statistically the first few seasons.

Star level centers that can't anchor defense (unless you are Jokic and can anchor an offense) don't have positive impact.

Yeah, Towns in College was putting up higher block volume than Mobley, but was also fouling like crazy in comparison. My memory may be incorrect, but I remember the narrative being that Towns was a superior prospect because he could protect the rim (over okafor). He was rocking a 7.6 dbpm so I think people had him pegged as a two way star big.

Towns 6.7 blocks per 100 and 8.8 personal fouls per 100
Mobley 5 blocks per 100 and 3.9 fouls per 100 (wow!)