Pelton Top 30 by stats and scouting (future WAR)

[jonbob17]

This may have already been posted, i haven't been able to keep up, on vacation with the family. I think we have seen a pretty close tie to Pelton's rankings and the Magic picks in the past few years. Cole was really high 5 i think last year, RJ was next behind Cole fwiw. Prior year Okeke was really highly ranked . Isaac was # 2 behind Luka if i remember correctly. Bamba was ranked high, but not best on the board at Magic pick.

Here's Peleton's rankings based on his modeling:

1. Sengun. 4.2 WARP
2. Cade 2.8 WARP
3. Jalen Green 2.7 WARP
4. Mobley 2.6 WARP
5. Giddey. 2.4 WARP
6. Suggs 2.4 WARP
7. Kuminga. 2.3
8. Garuba 2.3
9. Wagner 2.0
10. Moody 1.9
11. Tre Murphy 1.7
12. Jalen Johnson 1.5
13. Barnes 1.5
14. Josh Primo 1.4
Others. Bouknight #32. Davion #42

I am in vegas, i was going to lay some $ on Barnes at 5, figured for sure he was the pick. This plants the seed of doubt. I was starting to get a little worried too about some of the stats i was seeing on Barnes midrangers. a little lower than i thought.

I could totally see a Sengun/Giddey pairing, assuming they were both available. I am not sure how I feel, they both have high ceilings, i am a little worried about some of Giddey's (lack of) skills. Pelton said of Sengun that he was third ranked stats based prospect in his database behind Luka and Anthony Davis.
The fanbase might lose it.
I am pretty high on both guys, but I had been pretty surprised i had 2 white guys in my top 10. Luka might have been the only white guy i ever valued as a prospect up until this year. Wagner up there too. EDIT forgot about KP.
I was a little surprised Kuminga graded out so well in this model. I am not sure i am buying it maybe he had more scouting weighting. Don't see where he's getting point for stats.

We will see what happens, i really have no idea what the Magic are going to do at this point.

[The Effect]

This may have already been posted, i haven't been able to keep up, on vacation with the family. I think we have seen a pretty close tie to Pelton's rankings and the Magic picks in the past few years. Cole was really high 5 i think last year, RJ was next behind Cole fwiw. Prior year Okeke was really highly ranked . Isaac was # 2 behind Luka if i remember correctly. Bamba was ranked high, but not best on the board at Magic pick.

Here's Peleton's rankings based on his modeling:

1. Sengun. 4.2 WARP
2. Cade 2.8 WARP
3. Jalen Green 2.7 WARP
4. Mobley 2.6 WARP
5. Giddey. 2.4 WARP
6. Suggs 2.4 WARP
7. Kuminga. 2.3
8. Garuba 2.3
9. Wagner 2.0
10. Moody 1.9
11. Tre Murphy 1.7
12. Jalen Johnson 1.5
13. Barnes 1.5
14. Josh Primo 1.4
Others. Bouknight #32. Davion #42

I am in vegas, i was going to lay some $ on Barnes at 5, figured for sure he was the pick. This plants the seed of doubt. I was starting to get a little worried too about some of the stats i was seeing on Barnes midrangers. a little lower than i thought.

I could totally see a Sengun/Giddey pairing, assuming they were both available. I am not sure how I feel, they both have high ceilings, i am a little worried about some of Giddey (lack of) skills. Pelton said of Sengun that he was third ranked stats based prospect in his database behind Luka and Anthony Davis.
The fanbase might lose it.
I am pretty high on both guys, but two white guys i can't believe it, i had already been surprised i had 2 white guys in my top 10. Luka might have been the only white guy i ever valued as a prospect up until this year. Wagner up there too. I was a little surprised Kuminga graded out so well in this mode. I am not sure i am buying it maybe he had more scouting weighting. Don't see where he's getting point for stats.

We will see what happens, i really have no idea what the Magic are going to do at this point.

Forget the numbers, just watch the first 10-15mins of this video and watch all his shot attempts, like i said before, as low as i was on him as a shooter before i saw this, it was worse than i even thought. he has ZERO touch outside of 5 feet, and even then, he misses alot of layup\drives. And worse yet, he doesnt just miss, he missed BADLY, even some airballs, or shots that only hit the backboard, not even the rim. Its bad. I honestly cant even think of a worse shooter in recently member, it was like watching Bismack Biyombo taking jumpers

Watch on YouTube

[RookieStar]

Exactly.... ngl I might be more comfortable we take Wagner/Sengun over Barnes as I kept watching more games of Barnes fearing he really might be our pick.. at least we know those 2 can score and have other skills over Barnes..

I would be more comfortable with Barnes probably if we really lack frontcourt help...

[tiderulz]

This may have already been posted, i haven't been able to keep up, on vacation with the family. I think we have seen a pretty close tie to Pelton's rankings and the Magic picks in the past few years. Cole was really high 5 i think last year, RJ was next behind Cole fwiw. Prior year Okeke was really highly ranked . Isaac was # 2 behind Luka if i remember correctly. Bamba was ranked high, but not best on the board at Magic pick.

Here's Peleton's rankings based on his modeling:

1. Sengun. 4.2 WARP
2. Cade 2.8 WARP
3. Jalen Green 2.7 WARP
4. Mobley 2.6 WARP
5. Giddey. 2.4 WARP
6. Suggs 2.4 WARP
7. Kuminga. 2.3
8. Garuba 2.3
9. Wagner 2.0
10. Moody 1.9
11. Tre Murphy 1.7
12. Jalen Johnson 1.5
13. Barnes 1.5
14. Josh Primo 1.4
Others. Bouknight #32. Davion #42

I am in vegas, i was going to lay some $ on Barnes at 5, figured for sure he was the pick. This plants the seed of doubt. I was starting to get a little worried too about some of the stats i was seeing on Barnes midrangers. a little lower than i thought.

I could totally see a Sengun/Giddey pairing, assuming they were both available. I am not sure how I feel, they both have high ceilings, i am a little worried about some of Giddey's (lack of) skills. Pelton said of Sengun that he was third ranked stats based prospect in his database behind Luka and Anthony Davis.
The fanbase might lose it.
I am pretty high on both guys, but I had been pretty surprised i had 2 white guys in my top 10. Luka might have been the only white guy i ever valued as a prospect up until this year. Wagner up there too. EDIT forgot about KP.
I was a little surprised Kuminga graded out so well in this model. I am not sure i am buying it maybe he had more scouting weighting. Don't see where he's getting point for stats.

We will see what happens, i really have no idea what the Magic are going to do at this point.

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

[thelead]

This may have already been posted, i haven't been able to keep up, on vacation with the family. I think we have seen a pretty close tie to Pelton's rankings and the Magic picks in the past few years. Cole was really high 5 i think last year, RJ was next behind Cole fwiw. Prior year Okeke was really highly ranked . Isaac was # 2 behind Luka if i remember correctly. Bamba was ranked high, but not best on the board at Magic pick.

Here's Peleton's rankings based on his modeling:

1. Sengun. 4.2 WARP
2. Cade 2.8 WARP
3. Jalen Green 2.7 WARP
4. Mobley 2.6 WARP
5. Giddey. 2.4 WARP
6. Suggs 2.4 WARP
7. Kuminga. 2.3
8. Garuba 2.3
9. Wagner 2.0
10. Moody 1.9
11. Tre Murphy 1.7
12. Jalen Johnson 1.5
13. Barnes 1.5
14. Josh Primo 1.4
Others. Bouknight #32. Davion #42

I am in vegas, i was going to lay some $ on Barnes at 5, figured for sure he was the pick. This plants the seed of doubt. I was starting to get a little worried too about some of the stats i was seeing on Barnes midrangers. a little lower than i thought.

I could totally see a Sengun/Giddey pairing, assuming they were both available. I am not sure how I feel, they both have high ceilings, i am a little worried about some of Giddey's (lack of) skills. Pelton said of Sengun that he was third ranked stats based prospect in his database behind Luka and Anthony Davis.
The fanbase might lose it.
I am pretty high on both guys, but I had been pretty surprised i had 2 white guys in my top 10. Luka might have been the only white guy i ever valued as a prospect up until this year. Wagner up there too. EDIT forgot about KP.
I was a little surprised Kuminga graded out so well in this model. I am not sure i am buying it maybe he had more scouting weighting. Don't see where he's getting point for stats.

We will see what happens, i really have no idea what the Magic are going to do at this point.

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

Primo is actually pretty intriguing when you think about how young he is. He would nearly be halfway through his sophomore year of college at the age of 18 still. And his splits of 43/38/75 are decent considering he played on a good team in a competitive conference. He's a full year and 3 months younger than Cade. You do have to wonder where he would be drafted if he stayed another year. He would still be younger than most players in next year's draft.

[Bensational]

Giddey up! I like this list. It’s missing Tre Mann and Ayo Dosunmu, but I like that it’s weighted differently to most mocks.

I’m getting really excited about Sengun. I wonder if he’s our target at 8 if he’s still on the board?

[tiderulz]

This may have already been posted, i haven't been able to keep up, on vacation with the family. I think we have seen a pretty close tie to Pelton's rankings and the Magic picks in the past few years. Cole was really high 5 i think last year, RJ was next behind Cole fwiw. Prior year Okeke was really highly ranked . Isaac was # 2 behind Luka if i remember correctly. Bamba was ranked high, but not best on the board at Magic pick.

Here's Peleton's rankings based on his modeling:

1. Sengun. 4.2 WARP
2. Cade 2.8 WARP
3. Jalen Green 2.7 WARP
4. Mobley 2.6 WARP
5. Giddey. 2.4 WARP
6. Suggs 2.4 WARP
7. Kuminga. 2.3
8. Garuba 2.3
9. Wagner 2.0
10. Moody 1.9
11. Tre Murphy 1.7
12. Jalen Johnson 1.5
13. Barnes 1.5
14. Josh Primo 1.4
Others. Bouknight #32. Davion #42

I am in vegas, i was going to lay some $ on Barnes at 5, figured for sure he was the pick. This plants the seed of doubt. I was starting to get a little worried too about some of the stats i was seeing on Barnes midrangers. a little lower than i thought.

I could totally see a Sengun/Giddey pairing, assuming they were both available. I am not sure how I feel, they both have high ceilings, i am a little worried about some of Giddey's (lack of) skills. Pelton said of Sengun that he was third ranked stats based prospect in his database behind Luka and Anthony Davis.
The fanbase might lose it.
I am pretty high on both guys, but I had been pretty surprised i had 2 white guys in my top 10. Luka might have been the only white guy i ever valued as a prospect up until this year. Wagner up there too. EDIT forgot about KP.
I was a little surprised Kuminga graded out so well in this model. I am not sure i am buying it maybe he had more scouting weighting. Don't see where he's getting point for stats.

We will see what happens, i really have no idea what the Magic are going to do at this point.

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

Primo is actually pretty intriguing when you think about how young he is. He would nearly be halfway through his sophomore year of college at the age of 18 still. And his splits of 43/38/75 are decent considering he played on a good team in a competitive conference. He's a full year and 3 months younger than Cade. You do have to wonder where he would be drafted if he stayed another year. He would still be younger than most players in next year's draft.

I obviously watched every game of his. he really needed to come back for another year. he cant create for himself, his handles are shaky and he isnt a good defender. shoot, even the best player on Bama, Shackleford, came back for another year to work on his game and he was light years ahead of Primo. Primo playing SG is years down the road in development.

[thelead]

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

Primo is actually pretty intriguing when you think about how young he is. He would nearly be halfway through his sophomore year of college at the age of 18 still. And his splits of 43/38/75 are decent considering he played on a good team in a competitive conference. He's a full year and 3 months younger than Cade. You do have to wonder where he would be drafted if he stayed another year. He would still be younger than most players in next year's draft.

I obviously watched every game of his. he really needed to come back for another year. he cant create for himself, his handles are shaky and he isnt a good defender. shoot, even the best player on Bama, Shackleford, came back for another year to work on his game and he was light years ahead of Primo. Primo playing SG is years down the road in development.

I don't disagree about absolutely needing more time but the upside is there. He even looks like a baby

[tiderulz]

Primo is actually pretty intriguing when you think about how young he is. He would nearly be halfway through his sophomore year of college at the age of 18 still. And his splits of 43/38/75 are decent considering he played on a good team in a competitive conference. He's a full year and 3 months younger than Cade. You do have to wonder where he would be drafted if he stayed another year. He would still be younger than most players in next year's draft.

I obviously watched every game of his. he really needed to come back for another year. he cant create for himself, his handles are shaky and he isnt a good defender. shoot, even the best player on Bama, Shackleford, came back for another year to work on his game and he was light years ahead of Primo. Primo playing SG is years down the road in development.

I don't disagree about absolutely needing more time but the upside is there. He even looks like a baby

well, he is so young and so undeveloped, you could say the upside is there for practically any top high school player. doesnt mean he is ranked in the top-15 of players available to be drafted

[thelead]

I obviously watched every game of his. he really needed to come back for another year. he cant create for himself, his handles are shaky and he isnt a good defender. shoot, even the best player on Bama, Shackleford, came back for another year to work on his game and he was light years ahead of Primo. Primo playing SG is years down the road in development.

I don't disagree about absolutely needing more time but the upside is there. He even looks like a baby

well, he is so young and so undeveloped, you could say the upside is there for practically any top high school player. doesnt mean he is ranked in the top-15 of players available to be drafted

Sure but do you really love the players that most mock drafts have from 10-30? It's all a crapshoot anyway.

[tiderulz]

I don't disagree about absolutely needing more time but the upside is there. He even looks like a baby

well, he is so young and so undeveloped, you could say the upside is there for practically any top high school player. doesnt mean he is ranked in the top-15 of players available to be drafted

Sure but do you really love the players that most mock drafts have from 10-30? It's all a crapshoot anyway.

i like say Ayo better than Zaire. proven production. all depends on if you are solely relying on what a player could be 5 years from now. also have to take into account your developmental program. we have a brand new coach still filling out his staff, have no history to base development on.

[jonbob17]

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

I don’t know too much about Primo. The point was that Pelton’s list has been the best predictive tool for us fans of the Magic actual picks.

Maybe it’s coincidence, maybe the modeling has been similar in the past

[pepe1991]

* Averaging 0.68 points per jump shot in the half court [18th percentile], Barnes still has significant room to grow as a jump shooter — particularly off the dribble

this is nice way to say " he is dreadful if he can't get to rim".

[SOUL]

* Averaging 0.68 points per jump shot in the half court [18th percentile], Barnes still has significant room to grow as a jump shooter — particularly off the dribble

this is nice way to say " he is dreadful if he can't get to rim".

pepe your posting is in the 18th percentile but you have significant room to grow!

(I kid I kid )

[tiderulz]

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

I don’t know too much about Primo. The point was that Pelton’s list has been the best predictive tool for us fans of the Magic actual picks.

Maybe it’s coincidence, maybe the modeling has been similar in the past

did it rank Bamba high?

[basketballRob]

well, he is so young and so undeveloped, you could say the upside is there for practically any top high school player. doesnt mean he is ranked in the top-15 of players available to be drafted

Sure but do you really love the players that most mock drafts have from 10-30? It's all a crapshoot anyway.

i like say Ayo better than Zaire. proven production. all depends on if you are solely relying on what a player could be 5 years from now. also have to take into account your developmental program. we have a brand new coach still filling out his staff, have no history to base development on.

Ziaire also probably played in the toughest conference last season.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[pepe1991]

* Averaging 0.68 points per jump shot in the half court [18th percentile], Barnes still has significant room to grow as a jump shooter — particularly off the dribble

this is nice way to say " he is dreadful if he can't get to rim".

pepe your posting is in the 18th percentile but you have significant room to grow!

(I kid I kid )

I laughed hard on this tbh

My jumpshot would probably actually be 18 percentile

[The Effect]

that Primo is even in the top 15 makes me laugh at this list.

I don’t know too much about Primo. The point was that Pelton’s list has been the best predictive tool for us fans of the Magic actual picks.

Maybe it’s coincidence, maybe the modeling has been similar in the past

did it rank Bamba high?

Yeah I think it had him 7th?

[tiderulz]

Sure but do you really love the players that most mock drafts have from 10-30? It's all a crapshoot anyway.

i like say Ayo better than Zaire. proven production. all depends on if you are solely relying on what a player could be 5 years from now. also have to take into account your developmental program. we have a brand new coach still filling out his staff, have no history to base development on.

Ziaire also probably played in the toughest conference last season.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

how do you figure? Pac12 put in 5 tournament teams.

Big10
SEC
Big12
ACC

all had more tournament teams. that would generally say that those conference were stronger and tougher. going into the tournament, PAC12 only had 1 team in the top-25. so why exactly was it the toughest conference last season?

[basketballRob]

i like say Ayo better than Zaire. proven production. all depends on if you are solely relying on what a player could be 5 years from now. also have to take into account your developmental program. we have a brand new coach still filling out his staff, have no history to base development on.

Ziaire also probably played in the toughest conference last season.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

how do you figure? Pac12 put in 5 tournament teams.

Big10
SEC
Big12
ACC

all had more tournament teams. that would generally say that those conference were stronger and tougher. going into the tournament, PAC12 only had 1 team in the top-25. so why exactly was it the toughest conference last season?

how many teams did they have in the final 16?

Edit: I did a quick check. They had more teams than any other conference in the sweet 16, and they had the best record in the NCAA tournament.