Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:payitforward wrote:In the ten drafts from 2009 - 2018, at least 1/3 of the guys taken in the top 3 have been busts or close to it.
If you have time check out the second round of the 2012 draft, pif.  
 
For sure! I'm totally familiar with that draft! Sato, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, & Will Barton -- not to mention Kyle O'Quinn, Mike Scott, Jeff Taylor, Quincy Acy (who had a few pretty useful years) & Darius Miller (he's still in the league). 
Compare those guys to, for example, Thomas Robinson -- the #5 pick that year! Or Dion Waiters (#4) -- or, for that matter, with Austin Rivers, Kendall Marshall, John Henson, Royce White, Terrence Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Marquis Teague, & Festus Ezeli. All R1 picks that year!
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:...I read your above and as I did I compared and contrasted picks 27-30 or later with the top 3.
There have been some terrific players drafted 27, 30, 41 (Jokic and  Connaughton) and even later.  Too much for me to articulate clearly other than to say I’m convinced that given second round picks one has a better than 50% chance of selecting at least a replacement level player.
In a few years this second round is going to resemble 2012.
Tons more than that too! Jordan Clarkson, Dwight Powell, Hamidou Diallo, Jarred Vanderbilt, DeAnthony Melton, Shake Milton, Mitchell Robinson.... Off the top of my head.