2021 Draft Thread (Postdraft)

[KevinMcreynolds]

Previous thread can be found here.

In Chad Ford's podcast last night he was saying our front office has been locked in on Kuminga lately but some in the organization (probably coaching staff and statnerds) have been pushing for Wagner. This is assuming Bouknight goes to OKC.

[HiRez]

Trade up, trade down, trade out still my favorite scenarios. Here's one nutty scenario I thought up that I like.

1. Trade #7 down to Memphis for the #10 + Bane/Melton/Tillman/Clarke, any of whom are better than who's at #14 IMO
2. Trade #14 to NYK for #19 + #21
3. Trade #10 + #19 for #8 or #9 (maybe add Paschall if necessary)
4. At #8/9, pick 1 of Kuminga, Wagner, or Moody, at least 1 of whom is guaranteed to be there
5. At #21, pick whoever is left/drops

Final haul:
Kuminga/Wagner/Moody
Bane/Melton/Tillman/Clarke
Butler/Garuba/Sengun/Springer/McBride/Keon/Ziaire

[TB]

What I prefer: #7 Wagner or Kuminga, #14 Kai or Springer or Garuba or Murphy (as you can see I don't know what I really want)

What I think will happen: #7 Wagner, #14 Mitchell

[The-Power]

That's literally exactly what everyone said about Thabeet. Word for word.

How many prospects with Kuminga's physical profile and athleticism have busted like Thabeet? Every team wants athletic combo forwards for a reason, even if their skills need further development. Nobody is looking to find the next Thabeet-type prospect in the high lottery because basketball has changed.

That's a lot of qualifiers to try to explain why Kuminga looked terrible in a league where Reggie Williams dominated.

If that's your primary mode of evaluation, have at it. I guess we shouldn't draft any college player since they didn't dominate in a league that Luka Garza dominated. Or let's just draft Garza ourselves and be done with it. The Celtics are also looking stupid for drafting the bust Jaylen Brown who had similar numbers to Kuminga against inferior competition.

Meanwhile, other people with more nuanced approaches can actually look at tape and project prospects instead of taking this overly simplistic – and quite frankly cherry-picked – approach.

Did you read? He grew up in a place with notoriously bad bureaucratic and documenting standards - in other words "much higher chance he's older than his listed age" vs US prospects. Which is exactly what I said.

Except you never said ‘vs. US prospects’. I interpreted it as that there is a ‘much higher chance that he's older than listed’ than that he is as old as he is listed. If you meant the former, then I can agree with that – but your statement certainly didn't make that explicit.

Also, this is something to leave to the teams who run the background checks and can therefore have a better idea how likely the ‘older age’ theory is to be true. Unless you have any information I don't have, this is just speculation and therefore not something I want to partake in when it comes to this kind of stuff.

[ChuckDurn]

I can't wait for the first "WTF was that?" move in today's draft, that seemingly comes out of nowhere and jumbles everything. Like if OKC surprises everybody and takes Sengun, so that both Bouknight and Kuminga are available at 7..... or Orlando takes Ziaire at 8 (which a couple of places are suggesting is possible)...... not that this draft isn't interesting enough already, but there will likely be 1 or 2 surprises in the top 10-12 picks that will really make things shift around, as more of the "top" guys are available a couple of picks later than expected.

(And if that happens, keep an eye on the Knicks' 19 + 21 picks, because suddenly that combination has a lot more value.)

Guys that I could see being taken higher than mocked and potentially shaking things up include Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, Jalen Johnson, and Williams. We'll see........

[Old_Blue]

Trade up, trade down, trade out still my favorite scenarios. Here's one nutty scenario I thought up that I like.

1. Trade #7 down to Memphis for the #10 + Bane/Melton/Tillman/Clarke, any of whom are better than who's at #14 IMO
2. Trade #14 to NYK for #19 + #21
3. Trade #10 + #19 for #8 or #9 (maybe add Paschall if necessary)
4. At #8/9, pick 1 of Kuminga, Wagner, or Moody, at least 1 of whom is guaranteed to be there
5. At #21, pick whoever is left/drops

Final haul:
Kuminga/Wagner/Moody
Bane/Melton/Tillman/Clarke
Butler/Garuba/Sengun/Springer/McBride/Keon/Zhaire

Amen. I don't take quite as complicated an approach as you do though. If we can reacquire our 2024 first round pick from Memphis in a swap of the #7 and #10 picks, then a package of Wiggins, Wiseman, the #10 pick this year and our 2022 and 2024 first round picks really should be enough to land Siakam. With the #14 pick (which I'd like to retain more than the #7 pick) there should still be available interesting options like Garuba or Trey Murphy.

[Bizzy_Bee]

Giddey at 7 is a crazy reach.
He's a very flawed player. The guy can't shoot or defend. His footwork is really awkward.
He is NOT LaMelo, don't waste a pick to make up for a previous mistake. It would make two mistakes.

Giddey would be a steal at 7 assuming he makes it there.

Giddey can shoot. In the Schmitz interview he talked about struggling initially with his shot/confidence in the NBL before making adjustments.

Giddey's first 7 game from 3:

2-20
10%

Giddey's final 21 games:

27-77
35%

He ended up being 29% from 3 on the season. Better than LaMelo when he came out and Kuminga this year. Same as Bouknight and Zaire Williams. He'll need to continue to improve but a) he's not a terrible shooter and b) the numbers show reason for optimism.

On top of that he had 3 triple doubles at 18 years old in the NBL, plays for one of the best teams in the Olympics at 18, comes from parents who were basketball players.

He's also a full year younger than Cunningham, Mobley, Suggs, and Barnes who were Freshmen this year.

[KevinMcreynolds]

the problem is Giddey actually tried and played hard, while Lamelo put up those numbers playing completely disinterested GQ Slopball

[Bizzy_Bee]

After listening to Wagner's media call + seeing a report that said Warriors have Kuminga top 4.... I can't help but think the Warriors are locked in on Wagner and hoping OKC doesn't have him targeted at 6. I think they want OKC to take Kuminga or Bouknight.

The media call was hilarious, when asked if he met with Warriors he gave every poker tell possible about it. Clearly he met with them (we know that now), and my view is that he wants to be drafted by the Warriors.

I can't see Presti going with Bouknight.... guessing they go with Kuminga, Wagner, or Moody and the Warriors are sweating hoping it isn't Wagner.

Pretty much agree with everything here.

Warriors will play it safe with Wagner because he will appease both the win now and upside crowd.

[Bizzy_Bee]

the problem is Giddey actually tried and played hard, while Lamelo put up those numbers playing completely disinterested GQ Slopball

For sure. LaMelo didn't try hard in the NBL so Giddey sucks.

[510TWSS]

Locked on Pod guys have Giddey's name attached to Tor in a potential trade down and Memphis in a trade up.

That pod with Vecenie also mentioned Giddey in the mix for the W's at 7.

Seems like Giddey's value right now is 7-10 range

[KevinMcreynolds]

the problem is Giddey actually tried and played hard, while Lamelo put up those numbers playing completely disinterested GQ Slopball

For sure. LaMelo didn't try hard in the NBL so Giddey sucks.

I'm saying comparing the two based on their NBL tape is pointless.

[Bizzy_Bee]

the problem is Giddey actually tried and played hard, while Lamelo put up those numbers playing completely disinterested GQ Slopball

For sure. LaMelo didn't try hard in the NBL so Giddey sucks.

I'm saying comparing the two based on their NBL tape is pointless.

Yeah. Why compare two 6'8, 18 year old PGs with similar skill sets coming from the same league.

[AdonalFoyle4Prez]

What I prefer: #7 Wagner or Kuminga, #14 Kai or Springer or Garuba or Murphy (as you can see I don't know what I really want)

What I think will happen: #7 Wagner, #14 Mitchell

RIght now, of all the prospects we've listed, broke down, cut and diced up, pick apart their game, I'd say Wagner will be our guy if we can't find trade partners to trade up, trade down, or trade out.

But, if we do happen to trade #7 + Wiseman for #4 (Suggs), then still gives us #14, and I'd say we can go on a flyer for a project big still and go with Kai Jones. With Jones, he won't nearly have as much pressure and expectations to perform out of the gates like a raw Wiseman did. And he can be the rim-runner we expect him to be to start off, and let him develop at his own pace. This team won't skip a beat. All that leaves us a gapping hole at the 3.

DEPTH:
Curry / Suggs
Thompson / Poole / Lee / Mulder
Wiggins
Green / Paschall
Looney / Jones / Smiley

*TWC = Mannion, Jessup

[and1GS]

And if he doesn't perform in his first 30 games, we ship his a$$ out baby!

[lars_rosenberg]

On top of that he had 3 triple doubles at 18 years old in the NBL, plays for one of the best teams in the Olympics at 18

He was cut actually. To make room for Delly and Exum

[FNQ]

The fallacy of moneyball metrics is that stats only tell a small part of the story. Stats do not tell you if a player was consistently guarded by other teams best player, or if bouknight guarded the other teams best player or what his or the other teams players did. Moneyball does not work hence the a's had zero titles in 30 years and the giants have 3.

Moneyball isn’t, and never was, about only using metrics to determine value. This “get off my lawn” old man nonsense to discredit metrics is archaic, and ignores that every single NBA team has an analytics department, supplemented by 3rd party vendors, because of how valuable they are. When you decide to progress past the 1980s in terms of analysis, you’ll find out how valuable they are.. instead of discrediting them because they don’t tell you what you want to hear

[KevinMcreynolds]

For sure. LaMelo didn't try hard in the NBL so Giddey sucks.

I'm saying comparing the two based on their NBL tape is pointless.

Yeah. Why compare two 6'8, 18 year old PGs with similar skill sets coming from the same league.

Scouts have said Lamelo would stop and wipe scuff marks off his shoes in the middle of possessions, he gave no effort of defense, and he was a baddie chuck overall. His NBL tape was a completely different player than we see with Charlotte. So yes, it doesn't hold any water to compare that with a guy that takes the NBL seriously and plays hard on every possession.

[Old_Blue]

Locked on Pod guys have Giddey's name attached to Tor in a potential trade down and Memphis in a trade up.

That pod with Vecenie also mentioned Giddey in the mix for the W's at 7.

Seems like Giddey's value right now is 7-10 range

That rumor is enough to make you want to pull your hair out. The Warriors would love to get Toronto's #4 pick, but Memphis nabs it instead? Myers has assets to work with. He doesn't need to get cock blocked by the Grizzlies.

[KevinMcreynolds]

It's the same thing with Ziaire right now. His Stanford tape is absolutely horrible so he's lost favor with a lot of teams, but some scouts think it didn't show his true colors under the circumstances (playing all away games in a covid season) and he might still be a T1/T2 prospect.