Klomp wrote:shrink wrote:People tend to over-value second round picks, and I’ve seen Star trades on the Trade Board fail to reach an agreement because posters refused to give up a second.
Here’s a fun fact for you. Can you guess how many teams kept their second round pick in the last draft?
Did you say, “four?” That’s right, 26 of 30 teams traded those picks.
Now, a top 5 pick in the second round may have a little value. Not like it once did, when a team would stash the best Euro prospect with a second round pick and avoid paying salary (like we did to get Pek). Now the rules have changed and international scouting is thorough. Getting talent now requires a 1st (like we used to get Bolmaro). There have also been some decent players that have been found in those first few picks (which the WAS pick could be).
However, history shows that finding a starter in the second round is the exception. The majority make no significant contribution in the NBA. Hopefully Rosas can beat the odds, but keeping or giving up a pick shouldn’t be seen as a huge deal. This may be important if we try to move on from some more of our salary.
While 26 teams traded away picks, it also means 26 teams traded FOR them too. By that logic, it makes them pretty valuable.
And I don't discount that they tend to be long shots, especially if you're only judging based on star quality. But there are still a number of really good players that can be found in the second round.
2019 produced quality role players like Cody Martin, Eric Paschall and Terrance Mann plus highly thought of prospects like Talen Horton Tucker, Bol Bol and Nic Claxton. 2018 produced DeAnthony Melton, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Devonte Graham, Jalen Brunson and Jarred Vanderbilt. 2017 produced Dillon Brooks, Thomas Bryant and Monte Morris. 2016 gave us Malcolm Brogdon, Georges Niang, Jake Layman and Patrick McCaw.
You’re right, but I think the over-value comes because the players that get remembered are the good ones. If there are five useful players in the second round, 25 teams didn’t get anything.
I recently had this discussion with Knicks fans, who were pumping up the value of their #58 pick. Here’s those names for 25 years.
2019 Miye Oni, Yale – Utah Jazz
2018 Thomas Welsh, UCLA – Denver Nuggets
2017 Ognjen Jaramaz, Serbia – New York Knicks
2016 Abdel Nader, Iowa State – Boston Celtics
2015 J.P. Tokoto, North Carolina – Philadelphia 76ers
2014 Jordan McRae, Tennessee – Philadelphia 76ers
2013 Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State – San Antonio Spurs
2012 Robbie Hummel, Purdue – Minnesota Timberwolves
2011 Ater Majok, The Sudan – L.A. Lakers
2010 Derrick Caracter, University of Texas at El Paso – L.A. Lakers
2009 Lester Hudson, University of Tennessee at Martin – Boston Celtics
2008 Joe Crawford, University of Kentucky – L.A. Lakers
2007 Giorgos Printezi, Greece – San Antonio Spurs
2006 J.R. Pinnock, George Washington University – Dallas Mavericks
2005 Uros Slokar, Slovenia – Toronto Raptors
2004 Blake Stepp, Gonzaga University – Minnesota Timberwolves
2003 Andreas Glyniadakis, Greece – Detroit Pistons
2002 Corsley Edwards, Central Connecticut State University – Sacramento Kings
2001 None
2000 Pete Mickeal, University of Cincinnati – Dallas Mavericks
1999 Eddie Lucas, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University – Utah Jazz
1998 Maceo Baston, University of Michigan – Chicago Bulls
1997 None
1996 Darnell Robinson, University of Arkansas – Dallas Mavericks
1995 Don Reid, Georgetown University – Detroit Pistons
Anyway, that’s #58, and the WAS pick should be better, but my point is, it’s still a low chance crapshoot. I’m happy to roll the dice, but teams shouldn’t pay a fortune to do it.
