2021 Offseason & Offseason Grades

[Ruzious]

Still, no denying Tommy Sheppard makes nimble moves. With Spencer Dinwiddie added to the Laker deal, the contract of an injured John Wall (plus a conditional 1st round pick in the next 2 years, and two 2nd round picks in '24 and '28) will have become some mix of:

PG- Dinwiddie, Aaron Holiday
SG- (KCP)
SF/PF- (Kuzma) Isaiah Todd
PF/C- (Montrezl)

(at least two of these three, but possibly all of them). And one of: a $4m trade exception or an $8m trade exception. Plus conditions removed on a 2nd round Lakers pick swap (though it likely won't matter, since it is the better of Detroit, Chicago, or Lakers next year).

That's a trade more convoluted than any we come up with in the trade thread, and no denying we get better value than if we had kept Wall and bet on his injured leg to heal. That cap choking megaMAX contract is split into manageable chunks and tradeable pieces.

For a guy who waited a decade and a half to get a shot, Tommy has shown initiative and creativity. It's good to see.

I'll agree that there's cleverness and ingenuity involved with the trade, but at this point - I don't think it's a smart trade. I think it might keep us in contention for the 10th seed again, and that's an unappealing goal. We shall see - hopefully I'm wrong. Maybe Dinwiddie turns out to be a lot better than I think he is.

[nate33]

Still, no denying Tommy Sheppard makes nimble moves. With Spencer Dinwiddie added to the Laker deal, the contract of an injured John Wall (plus a conditional 1st round pick in the next 2 years, and two 2nd round picks in '24 and '28) will have become some mix of:

PG- Dinwiddie, Aaron Holiday
SG- (KCP)
SF/PF- (Kuzma) Isaiah Todd
PF/C- (Montrezl)

(at least two of these three, but possibly all of them). And one of: a $4m trade exception or an $8m trade exception. Plus conditions removed on a 2nd round Lakers pick swap (though it likely won't matter, since it is the better of Detroit, Chicago, or Lakers next year).

That's a trade more convoluted than any we come up with in the trade thread, and no denying we get better value than if we had kept Wall and bet on his injured leg to heal. That cap choking megaMAX contract is split into manageable chunks and tradeable pieces.

For a guy who waited a decade and a half to get a shot, Tommy has shown initiative and creativity. It's good to see.

This.

Sheppard is a real operator and knows what he is doing. Everything that he has done with respect to the Wall situation has been way better than what could reasonably have been expected. He traded a disgruntled John Wall, right after a PR scandal no less, and in one year turned him into the package Doc summarized above, while also getting to rent Westbrook for a year and get us into the playoffs again. It's really quite amazing when you think about it.

I like the Dinwiddie acquisition. People are kidding themselves if they think this team would have a functional offense with just Bradley Beal and role players. It's too much pressure on Brad. They now have a second player that can break down a defense (and does it better than Westbrook). One of those guys will be on the floor at all times.

$20M is a little steep, but he's certainly worth $15-18M in this market. And at least it's only 3 years and not 4.

[Ruzious]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Would this work? Perhaps one of the Wizards' 2nd rounders gets routed to BK?

Yes. This is what I've been trying to articulate for the past day, ever since I saw Hollinger make a reference to it. Fred Katz must have missed the memo.

In Kats' defense, Hollinger's comments were over my head until you explained it so even I could understand it.

[Rafael122]

I’m pretty confused about the cap situation. If Dimwitted does sign for $20m/year, would we have cap room next summer without shedding salary?

It depends entirely on what the end game is with all these trades and signings. KCP has a small guarantee next year, Kuzma could still be rerouted. Harrell and Bryant are expiring.

Depending on how things shake out, they could either have the entire MLE, or up to $28 million in cap room.

[nate33]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

[nate33]

I’m pretty confused about the cap situation. If Dimwitted does sign for $20m/year, would we have cap room next summer without shedding salary?

It depends entirely on what the end game is with all these trades and signings. KCP has a small guarantee next year, Kuzma could still be rerouted. Harrell and Bryant are expiring.

Depending on how things shake out, they could either have the entire MLE, or up to $28 million in cap room.

The team still has too much redundancy at forward. Ideally, Sheppard figures out a way to unload either Bertans or Kuzma. With one of them gone, a path exists to get us to a cap number of $92-95M next summer - subtract $5M from that if we trade away KCP in the offseason rather than buying him out (which seems doable to me).

[doclinkin]

I don't hate the Dinwiddie addition in a vacuum, especially if there are team options and some insulation from injury (depending how much is guaranteed).

I can see the team they are building though. Dinwiddie shot too many questionable 3's in his breakout year. But he racked up FT attempts attacking the lane, and kicked out ~7 assists/game.

In Beal, Holiday, Dinwiddie we have a trio of guards in their prime who can handle and attack the interior. We surround them with shooters at:

PG: Holiday 39% 3FG
SG: KCP 40%, hopefully Mathews 38%
SF: Kispert 44%
PF: Bertans 39% -- Kuzma? 36%
C: Bryant 40%, maybe Huff 38%

Mix in dynamic 3/4 Forwards in Deni (passing, transition attack) and Rui (strong forward with developing face-up game). And anchor the interior with Gafford as a lob threat and defender, Bryant as a roll threat and high percentage scorer in the paint. If we keep Harrell we retain another high energy interior wrecking ball.

And all are age 28 (Beal, Bertans, KCP, Dinwiddie) or younger. There is room to grow, with young veterans anchoring the starting line, developing players with upside at most positions.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

I’m still a bit disappointed and perplexed drafting Todd when we already had Rui, Deni,Bertans, Kuzma, Gil, when we had such an obvious deficiency at PG and there were still many good PG prospects available.

[Ruzious]

I’m curious to see what else they could do with the full MLE even after this move.

They have so many pieces now to work with, that I'm guessing they don't even use it - unless they have a consolidation trade coming where they trade a few players for 1.

[payitforward]

...This has been one of the most stunning offseason I’ve seen as a Wizards fan.

I agree. Tommy has been an absolute magician.

& I withdraw my objection to the Dinwiddie deal. I was looking at it from the wrong angle entirely. Being stupid, IOW.

If we're not taking back more salary, it's well worth doing. There's a risk of course, b/c he's coming off injury. But, every move involves risk, & this one is worth taking.

It was Thursday evening, draft day, that Tommy traded Russ. It's Tuesday morning now. If the the Dinwiddie deal is done today, that's one hell of a whirlwind 5 days!

Worth noting that with Dinwiddie on board, the move for Aaron Holiday looks completely different. I still would have preferred to trade down differently, but the situation has changed radically!

[badinage]

I don't hate the Dinwiddie addition in a vacuum, especially if there are team options and some insulation from injury (depending how much is guaranteed).

I can see the team they are building though. Dinwiddie shot too many questionable 3's in his breakout year. But he racked up FT attempts attacking the lane, and kicked out ~7 assists/game.

In Beal, Holiday, Dinwiddie we have a trio of guards in their prime who can handle and attack the interior. We surround them with shooters at:

PG: Holiday 39% 3FG
SG: KCP 40%, hopefully Mathews 38%
SF: Kispert 44%
PF: Bertans 39% -- Kuzma? 36%
C: Bryant 40%, maybe Huff 38%

Mix in dynamic 3/4 Forwards in Deni (passing, transition attack) and Rui (strong forward with developing face-up game). And anchor the interior with Gafford as a lob threat and defender, Bryant as a roll threat and high percentage scorer in the paint. If we keep Harrell we retain another high energy interior wrecking ball.

And all are age 28 (Beal, Bertans, KCP, Dinwiddie) or younger. There is room to grow, with young veterans anchoring the starting line, developing players with upside at most positions.

Great observation, Doc. Great analysis.

You’ve got me excited.

[Rafael122]

I’m pretty confused about the cap situation. If Dimwitted does sign for $20m/year, would we have cap room next summer without shedding salary?

It depends entirely on what the end game is with all these trades and signings. KCP has a small guarantee next year, Kuzma could still be rerouted. Harrell and Bryant are expiring.

Depending on how things shake out, they could either have the entire MLE, or up to $28 million in cap room.

The team still has too much redundancy at forward. Ideally, Sheppard figures out a way to unload either Bertans or Kuzma. With one of them gone, a path exists to get us to a cap number of $92-95M next summer - subtract $5M from that if we trade away KCP in the offseason rather than buying him out (which seems doable to me).

If they open up enough cap room, I would seriously make a push next offseason to sign Mikal Bridges to an offer sheet. The Suns cap situation is about to explode, with Paul signing for 4 years, Booker's max, Ayton's upcoming max, and you know Bridges is going to get $20 million per.

[nate33]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

I’m still a bit disappointed and perplexed drafting Todd when we already had Rui, Deni,Bertans, Kuzma, Gil, when we had such an obvious deficiency at PG and there were still many good PG prospects available.

I don't evaluate draft picks until the guys actually play. Our only standard of reference at the moment is the opinion of a bunch of draft gurus who are just as likely to be wrong in their evaluations as Sheppard is.

[nate33]

I’m curious to see what else they could do with the full MLE even after this move.

They have so many pieces now to work with, that I'm guessing they don't even use it - unless they have a consolidation trade coming where they trade a few players for 1.

Agreed. We are 3 deep at every position now.

[Wizardspride]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

Perhaps but honestly, I don't think Bertans' contract is that bad.

I know I'm in the minority but his contract seems like a market deal to me.

[doclinkin]

I don't hate the Dinwiddie addition in a vacuum, especially if there are team options and some insulation from injury (depending how much is guaranteed).

I can see the team they are building though. Dinwiddie shot too many questionable 3's in his breakout year. But he racked up FT attempts attacking the lane, and kicked out ~7 assists/game.

In Beal, Holiday, Dinwiddie we have a trio of guards in their prime who can handle and attack the interior. We surround them with shooters at:

PG: Holiday 39% 3FG
SG: KCP 40%, hopefully Mathews 38%
SF: Kispert 44%
PF: Bertans 39% -- Kuzma? 36%
C: Bryant 40%, maybe Huff 38%

Mix in dynamic 3/4 Forwards in Deni (passing, transition attack) and Rui (strong forward with developing face-up game). And anchor the interior with Gafford as a lob threat and defender, Bryant as a roll threat and high percentage scorer in the paint. If we keep Harrell we retain another high energy interior wrecking ball.

And all are age 28 (Beal, Bertans, KCP, Dinwiddie) or younger. There is room to grow, with young veterans anchoring the starting line, developing players with upside at most positions.

Great observation, Doc. Great analysis.

You’ve got me excited.

Last year we were what, 28th in 3FG%? And if Bertans was off, or tubby, the team fell apart, with Beal trying to do too much. The shooting part looks like it will change. There are a lot of elements for a smart coach to mix here. The rest is chemistry. What combinations catalyze into a win.

[payitforward]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

Certainly that was the most consequential error -- esp. combined w/ the re-signing. But, I wonder whether Ted had a hand in the decision not to trade Davis. Part of his "culture change" blah blah at the time.

In any case, everyone makes mistakes. Sheppard has been very good indeed. & the last 4-5 days have been a jaw-dropping demonstration of savvy & imagination.

[payitforward]

Somebody please summarize our payroll, etc. (i.e. nate...? )

I'm ready for the season to start!!!

[nate33]

Sheppard's only consequential mistake in his tenure, in my opinion, was his unwillingness to trade Bertans for a 1st round pick at the Trade Deadline 2 years ago. We would look much better now with another 2020 1st round pick on the books earning $3M, than having Bertans at $16M. Just about everything else Sheppard has done has been exceptional, or at least competent.

Perhaps but honestly, I don't think Bertans' contract is that bad.

I know I'm in the minority but his contract seems like a market deal to me.

Assuming last year's sub-par season was a fluke, I agree with you. It's a market deal. But I don't think the team was in position to pay a market deal for a 6th man. I think we would have been better off paying a young guy a well below-market deal, as most 1st round picks tend to be.

[willbcocks]

Sheppard seems solid at the tactics but not the strategy. We were on track for a franchise changing top five pick this year if we traded Beal. Instead we're making tweaks to move us from a 35 win team to a 40 win team