Hollinger: With NBA free agency party ending quickly, the trading game begins
And now, we wait.
The first 48 hours of NBA free agency were the most comprehensive whirlwind we’ve ever witnessed. Amazingly, every one of my top 20 free agents is already accounted for next season; while the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard technically hasn’t announced what he’s doing yet, his return seems a foregone conclusion.
Based on my BORD$ ratings, only six free agents remain who project to deliver more than $6 million in value for 2021-22: Pelicans restricted free agents Josh Hart, Bulls restricted free agent Lauri Markkanen, Lakers point guard Dennis Schröder, Nuggets power forward Paul Millsap, Clippers guard Reggie Jackson and Warriors forward Kelly Oubre.
That’s it. That’s the list. Beyond that crew, we’ll see some other players get minimum deals and biannual exception money, but the free-agent spending frenzy essentially ended once Washington and Brooklyn completed their sign-and-trade deal for Spencer Dinwiddie. Only Oklahoma City has significant cap room left, and only a few other teams can even do a deal with their full midlevel exception at this point.
In other words, the party’s over. It’s time to wait for the other shoe to drop.
That shoe, of course, is the trade market, and it could be a really interesting one this time around. Some teams held themselves back a bit in the free-agent market because of three significant All-Star dominoes that could pop up on the trade market, while others are looking to get into the secondary market that could result from adjustment to existing deals.
Let’s have a look:
Ben Simmons
Two other names (Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal) might be slightly more alluring, but the one significant player nearly everyone expects to be on the move this summer is Simmons, as we’ve already documented ad infinitum since The Pass. The fit with Joel Embiid seems questionable at best and both Simmons and his team would probably be better off with a new arrangement.
As our David Aldridge and others have documented, the ask from Philadelphia thus far has been massive: Four first-round picks, an All-Star caliber player and perhaps a villa in France. This is hardly shocking for a few reasons. First, obviously, is that despite his shortcomings Simmons is quite good at basketball and, crucially, is 25 and signed for the next four seasons. Of course, they’re going to ask for a lot. Secondly, the Sixers have time on their side, at least for the moment. With a full offseason to make a deal, they don’t need to rush into a suboptimal one on the second day of free agency.
But the biggest issue is just that this is how Daryl Morey’s front office has always operated dating to his time in Houston. One thing I can tell you from the team side is that every front office has its own distinct rhythm of how it prefers to operate. Some like to get down to brass tacks immediately. Some prefer a slower back-and-forth. Some are open about their desired end game, some keep their cards closer. One or two, frankly, were impossible, and you knew before picking up the phone that there was virtually no chance of completing a trade with that franchise.
The back-and-forth between any two teams on a trade call is a mix of poker game and tango, reading the intentions of the franchise on the other side, but also understanding how it likes to operate and what’s necessary to get to the finish line. Inevitably, some teams develop a greater comfort on deals; for us in Memphis, for whatever reason, we found Miami, Boston and Rich Cho-era Charlotte made good dance partners.
Getting back to Morey and how his front office people operated in Houston, they definitely had a distinct style. First, they were active as hell: They called about trades more than any other team, by a mile. But second, they always started with a sky-high asking price, making borderline absurd offers and then working their way back to something reasonable. They often got there; Houston, in Morey’s tenure, also completed more trades than any other team, so these calls weren’t just hot air from the ridiculous guy in your fantasy league. But the Sixers’ modus operandi so far regarding Simmons is completely unsurprising to anybody who worked in the NBA in the last decade.
The Sixers probably won’t get everything they’ve asked for, but there is clear demand among teams for Simmons’ services. Surely Philadelphia will get something; the key is to get something that meshes better with Embiid and satisfies Philly’s win-now ambitions. And in terms of timing, the Sixers have other reasons to ask for the moon right now.
Which takes us to the next domino ….
Damian Lillard
One reason the Sixers might drag their feet on a Simmons trade and spend the intervening time demanding a huge asking price is that the number one player on their list hasn’t come available yet. Lillard surely would be the top name on Philly’s wish list should he issue the trade demand that he’s been dancing around for the last two months, with a seemingly ready-made fit for Embiid’s post game given his long-range bombing.
Philly won’t be the only team thinking about what Lillard could do for its lineup, of course; New York also looms as a potential destination, and other contenders will try to get in the mix for him too.
Yet the first step is for Lillard to actually demand a trade. Will it happen at some point this summer?
Portland’s free agency haul can’t be helping his mood any. Lillard wanted upgrades to the roster and instead has the Summer of Snell.
The Blazers are no doubt aware of this too, of course, which could take this in a completely opposite direction: The need to satisfy Lillard could drive Portland into the trade market as well.
The contracts aren’t great but the Blazers don’t lack for assets, having all their future first-round picks. They’d also love for you to drive off the lot with a lightly used Derrick Jones Jr. At a more significant level, the Blazers have also resisted CJ McCollum deals in the past, but with few other tradeable contracts on their books might have no choice but to put him in a deal if they want to shake things up around Lillard.
One way or another, the situation seems ripe for movement. The only thing that doesn’t seem tenable is the status quo.
Bradley Beal
Washington’s All-Star guard also hinted that he’s getting itchy, and has only one year left on his deal. While Beal could sign an extension at any point, his situation in Washington is another one every contender and contender-wannabe is watching carefully.
The Wizards’ offseason might have settled his nerves a bit, even if Washington sent out its biggest name in Russell Westbrook. The roster reconfiguration that culminated in the team’s sign-and-trade acquisition of Spencer Dinwiddie should leave Washington with a deeper, more flexible team, and one that has a newfound flexibility to do some in-season work thanks to several newly arrived middle-class contracts and a roster that is legitimately two-deep at every position. On paper, Washington had one of the league’s best offseasons.
Toronto Raptors
Raptors fans, along with everyone else, are waiting to see what the final haul is on the Kyle Lowry trade, and how exactly that was worth forfeiting a sizable cunk of cap space. Surely they didn’t do all this just for Precious Achiuwa … right?
Meanwhile, Toronto also becomes a prominent team to watch because of the expiring Goran Dragic contract the Raptors will acquire in the Lowry sign-and-trade. Dragic makes $19.44 million this year, and with Toronto in a soft rebuild The Dragon doesn’t seem to be a particularly necessary component.
While they could take his contract into the season and try to cut a deal later, their best opportunity night be to work something out with Dallas more quickly. A swap of Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein for Dragic, for instance, is cap-kosher and could come down to haggling over draft pick compensation for the Raps to take on Powell’s $11.1 million commitment in 2022-23.
More generally, we’re waiting to see what else the Raptors’ well-regarded front office might have up its sleeve. Toronto only has nine players with guaranteed contracts (including Chris Boucher’s recently guaranteed $7 million), still has its full midlevel exception, still has a trade exception coming from the Lowry deal (which could grow quite a bit if they send Dragic out in a three-team swap), and has $10.5 million in wiggle room below the tax line to operate. The Raptors have a lot of potential directions here.
Orlando Magic
While the rest of the NBA has been a furious hive of activity, things have been relatively tame in O-town. The last week has seen the Magic load up on Wagner brothers and add Robin Lopez, but otherwise it’s been dead quiet.
Partly that’s because the Magic aren’t short on bodies. They have 14 players with guaranteed deals for the coming season, and while the configuration is a bit weird (four centers and about 0.5 small forwards), the Magic aren’t exactly gunning for the title this year. They can afford to be patient.
However, the interesting part for Orlando is that it is one of the go-to calls for any team looking to dump a contract. While everyone focuses on Oklahoma City, the Thunder are sitting on a $17 million trade exception from last season’s Evan Fournier deal, and with $22 million in float below the luxury tax line the Magic have the wherewithal to take in a large deal. It may be this summer or it may wait ’til the trade deadline, but the most significant business Orlando can do involves that exception, and (hopefully) parlaying it into a future first-round pick.
. Still looks in shape
