My Rotation Analysis/Predictions (Now that Reggie's Back)

[TrueLAfan]

Now that we’ve got Reggie on board, I’ve got a writeup/analysis of what I think is going to happen with our recent draft picks and low rotation guys on 2021/22—who will stay, who will go and why. These are my thoughts:

Definitely here and on roster: Zu, Serge, Mook, PG, Batum, Mann, Luke, Reggie
Vets who may stay or be traded or not resigned: Bev, Rondo, 2Pat, Boogie
The young guys scrambling for playing time and roster/G-League spots: Coffey, Scrubb, Oturu, Preston, Johnson, Boston

Going from guys I think will play the least on the main team to the most:

Boston—G-League. The G-League is made for guys like Boston. He’s a decent ceiling, very low floor guy (because, yeah, he had a miserable year in college). He could show the skills and ability that made him a top recruit. Or he could wash out. We’ll know before his 22nd birthday. The odds of him making it to the dance this year are very very low. Projection 0 minutes

Coffey—G League/Roster, I ’m not sure what to make of Coffey, because he seems to be completely capable almost every time he’s on the court. He plays well. Efficient shooter, good size/length, scorer a little (should score more). Kind of a make or break year for him. His minutes doubled from his first year to his second year (although he still only played 400 minutes last year); if they stay the same this season, it’s his last year as a Clipper. If he moves up again, he might get resigned. My guess—he’ll stay the same or drop—really, he was better on the main roster than in Agua Caliente, which isn’t necessarily a good sign. Minutes for the taking, though; question is, will he take them? Projection 300 minutes.

Scrubb—G-League/Roster. He missed virtually all of last season; this is, effectively, his rookie season. Team and staff say all the right things about him, and he has a skillset (scorer/slasher) we need. Worked hard to be ready by the end of the season last year—work ethic is a plus. Might see a few minutes this year. Still a project. Projection: 240 minutes.

Johnson—Roster/G-League. The *real* project. The hope is that all he lacks is developmental time. Signs point to that; needs improvement with the long ball—but, from 3, went from 2-15 in his first 9 games to a respectable 11-33 in the last 18 games. Same with FT; 59% in his first 7 games, 74% in final 20 games. Tbh, I don’t see him getting a lot of burn this year—but I think it will be a great year for him to work on his fundamentals, bulk up, work on his shot, and harness his athleticism and skills. I think the hope is we’ll hit pretty big with him in his second year, but I don’t think we’ll know or see a whole lot this year. Projection: 400-500 minutes.

Oturu—Talk about make or break year; Oturu is kind of carrying the fate of three guys with him. If he looks like he can play a capable 10 mpg in 50-60 games, one of 2Pat or Boogie is probably gone. If he hasn’t made any strides, we may keep both. FWIW, looks *much* better than Kab did; Oturu plays within his abilities and the flow of the game; he has instinctive skills. I do wish he’d use the three he showed in college. I think he’ll be better—and his minutes will make a Coffey-like jump. Projection 500 minutes.

Preston—Yes, I have Preston above Coffey and Johnson on my rotation list. He’s either going to be overmatched or be an NBA player; I don’t see him as a low rotation guy, simply because he has an unusual skillset. The big question is will his physical abilities allow him to play with the physicality and speed of the NBA. I actually think the answer is yes; this is the most “long shot” of my analyses. Preston can pass better than anyone on our team other than Rondo, and has terrific court vision. The ball gets to the right person at the right time, and anyone who knows basketball will tell you that sounds easy but isn’t. He also scores enough and shot better than 39% from three in each of his last two years. Bad FT shooting last year is a possible concern, but I think he’ll not only make it, but contribute some this year—not a lot, but enough for us to know what we’ve got. I could be wildly wrong, but that’s my take. Projection 600-700 minutes.

I’ll predict that Preston, Oturu and Johnson are on the main roster at the beginning of the year, along with

Bev—Likely to stay unless Rondo shows he’s really able to play 25 or so mpg. A lot depends on Bev’s health—if he plays 60 or 70 games and logs 1700 minutes and the team does well, he’ll stay. But if he’s in and out of lineup early, and if Preston has any NBA ready game at all—I mean, if Preston can play 700 minutes or more—then either Bev or Rondo is definitely going. I could actually see us keeping Bev and resigning him after this year on a Vet minimum deal with incentives.

Rondo—I think he’s trade bait. I think he’ll do what he did last year in terms of being available at midseason, and have more value since his contract will be expiring. He’ll be moved for whatever positional player can most help us. Before then, here’s hoping he isn’t disruptive in the 15-18 mpg he’ll likely get.

Boogie—Boogie and 2Pat; one will stay; one will not. I would not be surprised if we kept Boogie. And I’m sorry, in a way—2Pat is a smart, likeable guy and is always ready and fills in capably. But the fact is that Boogie brings more when he’s on the court. He’s a needle mover, even in limited minutes. I also think he’s improving … he’ll never be the All-Star he once was, but his injuries are increasingly far away and his body is continuing to adjust to what it can do now. He’ll get better in the sense that he’ll know what he can do and for how long, and should make some strides in that area. He was well likerd in his run here, and I see it going forward,

So my mock roster plan is

Zu
Serge
Mook
PG
Batum
Mann
Luke
Reggie
Bev
Rondo
Oturu
Preston
Johnson
Boogie


Scrubb – G League 2-Way
Coffey -- G League 2-Way
Boston -- G League

2Pat – Not resigned

Of course, my roster lacks Kawhi—but he’ll obviously be on IR. And I’ve only got 14 players. That’s because we should offer the MLE to Justise Winslow.

[esqtvd]

ace call on Winslow but I hope it's not the MLE

Read on Twitter

[TheNewEra]

I don’t see Boogie or Patterson coming back. We are already at the player limit and two older bigs that struggle defensively just want seem like a priority for a team that’s trying to compete and develop on the fly. Don’t we have to confirm that Kawhi is out for the year before the league gives the extra roster spot

Coffey might have his offer taken back to get the roster down to 15. Unless a rule change happened I think 15 is the max we can have including the 2 2 way spots making a total of 17.

[TheNewEra]

I do like the outlook for the rooks especially Preston

[madmaxmedia]

Preston—Yes, I have Preston above Coffey and Johnson on my rotation list. He’s either going to be overmatched or be an NBA player; I don’t see him as a low rotation guy, simply because he has an unusual skillset. The big question is will his physical abilities allow him to play with the physicality and speed of the NBA. I actually think the answer is yes; this is the most “long shot” of my analyses. Preston can pass better than anyone on our team other than Rondo, and has terrific court vision. The ball gets to the right person at the right time, and anyone who knows basketball will tell you that sounds easy but isn’t. He also scores enough and shot better than 39% from three in each of his last two years. Bad FT shooting last year is a possible concern, but I think he’ll not only make it, but contribute some this year—not a lot, but enough for us to know what we’ve got. I could be wildly wrong, but that’s my take. Projection 600-700 minutes.

I will really be rooting for Jason Preston to make it on our team and in the NBA. I've only watched highlight vids, but his court awareness and passing ability absolutely stand out.

I think his FT shooting will be absolutely fine in the long run, since he has been a very good from 3 and appears to have a nifty touch around the basket as well (51.5% and 51.4% FG% his last 2 years.) Concerns about his athleticism are 100% valid, hopefully his height and size at the PG position will help on the NBA floor- as well as his 6'9" wingspan. When you see him playing he looks oddly younger than he really is, maybe he's still growing into his body a bit as well.

There's a chance he is totally physically outmatched in the NBA, but I feel also a good chance he is a heady enough player to make it work. He might be able to add a few pounds of muscle without dramatically affecting his quickness. I would love to see him end up making it as our starting PG down the road.

Keon Johnson is pretty much the opposite sort of prospect, I 100% agree we can't take too much from his rookie season even if his minutes end up limited.