Post#78 » by Hal14 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:02 pm
Ok, I have been mulling this over and here's what I'm thinking. Despite the fact that I am one of the bigger Madar advocates (on here as well as other social media sites), I am now thinking it is probably best for him to just play out the last yr of his contract back home in Israel.
Why?
1) The PG spot on our team is crowded right now. And it's also very much in flux. Can Pritchard be a legit starter or is he a career backup? Can Smart actually play the 1 or no? Is Smart even going to be here? Is he going to accept the extension offer? Is he getting traded? Is Dunn staying or going? Are we signing Schroder? Dunn and Schroder, are they even legit PGs who can facilitate or are they better suited for the 2?
There's so many questions, so much up in the air - it is probably best for us to just bring Madar over here next year once all of this stuff (hopefully) has been cleared up.
If we acquire Schroder, either Smart or Dunn is gone (either in that same deal or a separate one). So your PG rotation would be either Schroder/Smart/Pritchard or Schroder/Pritchard/Dunn
If we don't acquire Schroder, you just stay with what you have right now which is a PG rotation of Smart/Pritchard/Dunn
You see, the PG spot is just too crowded. And between Schroder/Smart/Pritchard/Dunn, you could maybe argue that Madar is just as good (or even better) than some of these guys but he is not definitively better than any of them. If he was, then sure, maybe you try and maneuver the roster in a way so that Madar is one of your top 2 or 3 guys on the PG depth chart but it's simply not the case - at least not today.
Not to mention Edwards is still under contract for another year. Sure, we can buy Edwards out of his contract but that is $ being spent by us - just like we'd have to help pay some $ towards Madar getting bought out of the last yr of his Israeli team contract. Is it worth it to spend that $ for a guy (Madar) who may or may not even be one of our 3 best PGs this season? Probably not
2) Madar's age. He's only 20 yrs old, and will be 21 in December. So what's the rush in bringing him over now? Think about how much better Pritchard was last yr as a rookie than Nesmith was. Hell, Pritchard was also better than Langford. Why? Pritchard was 23 yrs old, compared to Nesmith and Langford who were only 21. That 2 yrs makes a big difference. As a pro basketball player, for the most part, ages 18-21 are your development years. You're just this young kid, you're still learning, you're still figuring it out, still getting stronger physically, still maturing as a person, you're going to make more mistakes, have growing pains, etc.
Age 22 you start getting past that "growing pains" stage and you start kicking some a%%. Then age 23 and 24 is when many players really take some significant leaps and start showing signs of being a star. Age 25-29 is the prime for most NBA players. Age 30-32 they are still really good but you start seeing a little bit of a decline.
So why not just keep Madar over there for another yr and then bring him over here next year? Next year he will start the season at age 21 but play most of it at age 22. He'll be in more of a position to kick a%% at that point.
Plus, most rookie contracts are 3 years with maybe an option for a 4th yr. Well guess what, if we bring Madar over right now, his rookie contract begins now and the clock is ticking on his 3 years - he'll be a free agent in 2024. But if we stash him for another yr, we delay the beginning of his rookie contract for 1 more yr, so he won't be a free agent until 2025 - he'll stay under Celtics control until then.
Plus, the 3 yrs he is playing for us on his rookie contract - those will be 3 more productive yrs for him as a player if we wait a yr and bring him over next year. Obviously, Madar at age 22/23/24 is better than Madar at age 21/22/23 - I don't think there's any debate that most NBA players are clearly better at age 24 than they are at age 21 (barring injury). I'd rather be paying Madar $ on his rookie contract at age 24 than at age 21 because you're much better at age 24 than you are at 21 - that means stashing him overseas for 1 more yr.
3) You wait a year, it also gives Madar time to bulk up. Obviously you watch him play and the only negative anyone can say is, "oh he looks, small, too skinny". According to reports, Madar did everything the Celtics asked of him last yr when he was stashed overseas. So I'm sure that this year he will also do everything the Celtics ask of him, which should simply be
a) Get bigger/stronger
b) Tighten up the handle
c) Just keep working on everything else, the outside shot (shooting as much as possible from NBA range), being in the right spots defensively, making the right reads offensively.
If he works on all of that stuff, on top of how good he is already today, we could seriously be looking at a franchise PG here who will be ready to make a serious impact as a 22 yr old rookie in 2022-2023 season.
But the bottom line is, keeping Madar in Israel for 1 more year, it allows you to have a better roster construction - one where you have less guys on the team who are age 20/21 or younger. Instead you can use that roster spot on a veteran. Last season the C's were one of the youngest teams in the league and that was a big reason for our struggles and inconsistency.
4) Waiting a year to bring him over, it also makes it so Pritchard and Madar's rookie years are separated by 2 years instead of 1. There's been a lot of debates on here about Pritchard vs Madar. The other day after Pritchard scored 23 points in our first summer league game, Madar got most of the media attention and buzz on social media - hell, half the questions Pritchard got asked in his post-game press conference were about Madar. As of today, there might be some tension between them - they might see each other as competition. There will much less of that crap if we separate them by a year.
5) Madar will improve/develop more by playing another year overseas. If he stays overseas, he is guaranteed to be the starting PG, getting 30+ mins a game. If he is on the C's, maybe he only gets 5-10 mins a game, maybe he steals the starting PG spot and plays 25-30 mins a game, maybe somewhere in between. We don't know how much he would play on the C's, but we know he'd play more in Israel - probably a lot more.
6) All of these dudes we have this yr on the last year of their contract - it will just be a lot easier to find a roster spot for Madar next year. Plus if he shows he can dominate in Israel for another year and gets bigger/stronger, then the team will be much more likely to find a roster spot for him.
This all changes of course if he really goes nuts and dominates the rest of the summer league games. But:
a) I doubt he dominates to the point where you feel totally comfortable with him as one of your top 2 (or at worst 3) PGs heading into the season and he completely leapfrogs at least 1 (but ideally 2) of the following guys: Smart, Schroder, Pritchard, Dunn. Smart can always play the 2 instead (and Schroder isn't even officially on the team) but I think you have to really be confident that Madar is better right now, today than either Dunn or Pritchard.
b) You really shouldn't put that much weight on summer league games anyways. Small sample size of games, not the same competition as real NBA games, not even the same coaching staff, etc.
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland
