MIAMI HEAT Offseason Thread 2021 Vol.4 - Beasley Time

[Heat_team02]

Javonte Smart is my new Dark Horse he fits the mold.

[RexBoyWonder]

I fully expect Herro to get more minutes, especially with the team needing to preserve Lowry for postseason run and Dipo being out. Herro was 18/6/4 per 36 last season and played 30 minutes a game. That should improve with better percentages (.50/.40/.80 seem reasonable and would get him to 20/6/4). Get him 6 minutes more a game and he is 24/7/5. Yeah, I know that's not how it works. More minutes means a player is generally more tired and efficiency suffers.

Still Lowry/Herro/Butler/Duncan/Bam are a pretty good starting 5. Tucker/Strus/Morris/Dedmon off the bench. Dedmon can play 5 or 4. Okpala, Vincent, and Yurtseven can fight for minutes. Oladipo can hang out until next season. He might be ready for the postseason even, but there is no need to rush.

Zero chance we play Duncan at the 4. And Dedmon is strictly a 5.

The starting lineup will be Lowry, Duncan, and Jimmy at the 1-3. U can pretty much set that in stone. At least to start the season.

My question is will Spo be willing to play Bam at the 4 if like Yurt proves he's legit. Dedmon was so good for us in spot minutes as a backup to end the year, but I think that's the extent of his role.

I'm really sick of being dominated down low. I don't want to get ahead of myself and anoint Yurt to be something he isn't. But I also look at this team and see a very clear 2nd tier team in the East that isn't quite there if we are heavily relying on Morris/Tucker at the 4.

On one hand Yurt could be a DNP player most nights. But when I look at what a lineup of what Lowry, Duncan, Butler, Bam, Yurt could be, I actually see a real ceiling there. Our team last year really needed a true big that could hit 3's to be able to play next to Bam.

I've had enough of this small ball. At this point it's actually become uncommon for us not to find an unknown summer league gem. So I don't think my mild optimism that this could eventually be our starting squad is ridiculous (even if I wouldn't bet on it).

End of the day - it's about talent.

I have to believe that even Spo, small-ball lover that he is - would go big IF we'll have a good enough C that compliments Bam.

To me - this season is the time. Our PFs additions have a low ceiling - at best they be serviceable, more likely they'll be below average.

IMO Yurt is showing the potential to make Spo rethink things - simply because he might be good enough (compared to our smallball options) and versatile offensively and young and big and long enough defensively that the talent/production gap between him and our old PFs might make it worth it to go big, even if Spo thinks small ball gives us an advantage.

[Heat_team02]

Read on Twitter

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Really pumped about the new UD deal. He's in his peak prime coming off the best season of his career -- posting a 54.6 PER, 31.1 BPM, .475 WS/48, 200 ORTG, and 48.0 points per 36 on 100% TS -- and we got him for $2.6 mil lmao

[MettaWorldPanda]

Really pumped about the new UD deal. He's in his peak prime coming off the best season of his career -- posting a 54.6 PER, 31.1 BPM, .475 WS/48, 200 ORTG, and 48.0 points per 36 on 100% TS -- and we got him for $2.6 mil lmao

The league reimburses the Heat 1.1 million of it. The Heat and UD are both gaming the system to pay him as player/coach.

[Heat_team02]

Watch on YouTube

[gom]

Abark, while Duncan sometimes struggles to guard power forwards, quality shooting guards treat him like a hot knife through butter. At least for PF, he has size and won't have a primary responsibility to mark faster players who can dribble. Duncan is tall and has a wingspan over seven feet. I feel his main issue for defense is moving his feet, overall quickness, and bad decision making (this last is where he has most improved). He can't shoot 3s from the bench, and that's where fouls will put him if his primary responsibility is to defend guys like Brown, Lavine, Beal, Booker, Donovan Mitchell, & Kyrie Irving. Lowry, Bam, & Butler can shift to them of course, but then you'll have mismatch elsewhere.

I would like to see Bam's offensive game evolve. He has been playing a role of a modern center, his smaller stature compensated by intelligence, opportunism, and teamwork. Even so, against tall traditional centers (Brook Lopez, for example), Bam is not very effective offensively or defensively. For him to remain in the game, he needs to at least have a good midrange jumper (a 3-pt shot would be even better), and so he becomes more of a point-forward on offense. Dedmon or Yurtseven inside then creates a mismatch that our opponent must at least consider (if you leave a 7' guy in the paint, he is a great target):

https://www.fivereasonssports.com/news/evaluating-the-dewayne-dedmon-and-bam-adebayo-front-court-pairing/

Of course that didn't work out great either, but I digress.

I do not see the Heat changing their game away from small-ball because of Yurtseven's minimum contract, so I fully expect to see Lowry-Butler-Robinson and Herro (or Oladipo if he recovers) together on court. You can do that if you have a tenacious defender like Bam. We will also probably see PJ Tucker (a shooting guard) playing power forward too.

Anyway, I'm not that invested in the team this season, at least not now. Let the dice fly.

[HEATVols865]

Abark, while Duncan sometimes struggles to guard power forwards, quality shooting guards treat him like a hot knife through butter. At least for PF, he has size and won't have a primary responsibility to mark faster players who can dribble. Duncan is tall and has a wingspan over seven feet. I feel his main issue for defense is moving his feet, overall quickness, and bad decision making (this last is where he has most improved). He can't shoot 3s from the bench, and that's where fouls will put him if his primary responsibility is to defend guys like Brown, Lavine, Beal, Booker, Donovan Mitchell, & Kyrie Irving. Lowry, Bam, & Butler can shift to them of course, but then you'll have mismatch elsewhere.

I would like to see Bam's offensive game evolve. He has been playing a role of a modern center, his smaller stature compensated by intelligence, opportunism, and teamwork. Even so, against tall traditional centers (Brook Lopez, for example), Bam is not very effective offensively or defensively. For him to remain in the game, he needs to at least have a good midrange jumper (a 3-pt shot would be even better), and so he becomes more of a point-forward on offense. Dedmon or Yurtseven inside then creates a mismatch that our opponent must at least consider (if you leave a 7' guy in the paint, he is a great target):

https://www.fivereasonssports.com/news/evaluating-the-dewayne-dedmon-and-bam-adebayo-front-court-pairing/

Of course that didn't work out great either, but I digress.

I do not see the Heat changing their game away from small-ball because of Yurtseven's minimum contract, so I fully expect to see Lowry-Butler-Robinson and Herro (or Oladipo if he recovers) together on court. You can do that if you have a tenacious defender like Bam. We will also probably see PJ Tucker (a shooting guard) playing power forward too.

Anyway, I'm not that invested in the team this season, at least not now. Let the dice fly.

If only we had McAdoo on the staff to teach the big guys defense…


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[BFRESH44]

Garret and Nembhard are my prediction for the two ways. I feel they’ll want two different kind of prospects with two different skill sets. And those two check out for that.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

End of the day - it's about talent.

I have to believe that even Spo, small-ball lover that he is - would go big IF we'll have a good enough C that compliments Bam.

To me - this season is the time. Our PFs additions have a low ceiling - at best they be serviceable, more likely they'll be below average.

IMO Yurt is showing the potential to make Spo rethink things - simply because he might be good enough (compared to our smallball options) and versatile offensively and young and big and long enough defensively that the talent/production gap between him and our old PFs might make it worth it to go big, even if Spo thinks small ball gives us an advantage.

If you haven't noticed, not only does Miami want Bam at center, they really don't care too much about finding a "good" big to put beside him in the lineup, it seems to be the position they value the least. This is the 3rd offseason in a row they've refused to address the big next to Bam and they even doubled down on Bam at center by using their one of their two 1st round picks in the next 4 seasons to draft his backup last year in Precious. This franchise has decided to go all in with Bam's unique ability of playing as a center who can switch onto anyone. As of right now Miami's possible roster heading into next season's playoffs(based off Oladipo's health) could have an incredible switching defense of Lowry, Oladipo, Butler, Tucker and Bam.

Miami didn't put much assets/money towards a big next to Bam in 2019, 2020 and now 2021, PF seems to be the position Miami's FO/coaching staff feels the least worry about by being able to throw a big SF into that position if they need.

Yurtseven isn't the answer without experience and Miami is a team needing to have as high of a seeding as they can for the playoffs which means not handing out minutes just to develop someone. I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend most of his first year for Miami in the D-League unless Bam or Dedmon gets hurt.

[heat4life]

Garret and Nembhard are my prediction for the two ways. I feel they’ll want two different kind of prospects with two different skill sets. And those two check out for that.

I was thinking the same but Deeky has been too good so far to ignore. Plus I also think he brings better PG skills than Garrett.
We might be able to get Nembhard on a Exhibit 10 contract and filter him directly to our G-League roster. Same with Micah Potter, Javonte Smart and DJ Stewart if that's the way they wanted to go. Miami could also give Garrett and Deeky Exhibit 10 contacts with 50k bonuses as incentive and then convert their contracts to two-way right before the season begins. Miami did this in the past when they were hard capped. Jeremiah Martin, Chris Silva and Kyle Alexander signed those 50k bonus Exhibit 10 contracts with Gabe Vincent and Kyle Alexander getting two-way contacts that season.

According to rules, a team can carry a maximum of 6 Exhibit 10 contracts.

[Hallstar]

End of the day - it's about talent.

I have to believe that even Spo, small-ball lover that he is - would go big IF we'll have a good enough C that compliments Bam.

To me - this season is the time. Our PFs additions have a low ceiling - at best they be serviceable, more likely they'll be below average.

IMO Yurt is showing the potential to make Spo rethink things - simply because he might be good enough (compared to our smallball options) and versatile offensively and young and big and long enough defensively that the talent/production gap between him and our old PFs might make it worth it to go big, even if Spo thinks small ball gives us an advantage.

If you haven't noticed, not only does Miami want Bam at center, they really don't care too much about finding a "good" big to put beside him in the lineup, it seems to be the position they value the least. This is the 3rd offseason in a row they've refused to address the big next to Bam and they even doubled down on Bam at center by using their one of their two 1st round picks in the next 4 seasons to draft his backup last year in Precious. This franchise has decided to go all in with Bam's unique ability of playing as a center who can switch onto anyone. As of right now Miami's possible roster heading into next season's playoffs(based off Oladipo's health) could have an incredible switching defense of Lowry, Oladipo, Butler, Tucker and Bam.

Miami didn't put much assets/money towards a big next to Bam in 2019, 2020 and now 2021, PF seems to be the position Miami's FO/coaching staff feels the least worry about by being able to throw a big SF into that position if they need.

Yurtseven isn't the answer without experience and Miami is a team needing to have as high of a seeding as they can for the playoffs which means not handing out minutes just to develop someone. I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend most of his first year for Miami in the D-League unless Bam or Dedmon gets hurt.

I agree that this seems to be their desire, but the problem is that teams going this approach usually have a high powered offense to penalize other teams being big. We don't. So we have all the downsides of having a guard or sf witched off on a center on defense but also have limited shot creators to punish a mismatch on the other end...we have Lowry, Butler and Herro. That's it, and only Herro has any room for improvement in that lot. The rest of guys are waiting for something to happen for them to score. I think Yurt will supplant Dedmon fairly easily though. The step they won't take to save us a lot of headache is to realize Bam is a PF

[MettaWorldPanda]

Garrett and Deeky J are the two favorites for two ways. Watching them play you could early see Deeky has the more advanced PG skills and Garrett is more of the wing/slashing type that can handle a bit. We need depth at both spots.

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

I agree that this seems to be their desire, but the problem is that teams going this approach usually have a high powered offense to penalize other teams being big. We don't. So we have all the downsides of having a guard or sf witched off on a center on defense but also have limited shot creators to punish a mismatch on the other end...we have Lowry, Butler and Herro. That's it, and only Herro has any room for improvement in that lot. The rest of guys are waiting for something to happen for them to score. I think Yurt will supplant Dedmon fairly easily though. The step they won't take to save us a lot of headache is to realize Bam is a PF

Teams are switching to it trying to not allow open shots or easy attacks of the basket but sometimes, especially in the playoffs, have players getting hunted. Miami may have the ability to not have a "weak" defender on the court to really put some pressure on teams although most of the game Duncan or Tyler will be on the court.

[gom]

Read on Twitter

I agree this is very important, Panda. Some of the talk here about roster size (and UD) is out of control though, and frankly, just doesn't make much sense. The salary cap and tax equations are only relevant at the end of the season. I think the Heat will (eventually) play with 15 and two 2-ways because of lingering implications of covid and season attrition.

Players like UD and Duncan Robinson affirm the success of the Heat's work with undrafted players, and the success of Heat/SXF player development is incontrovertible. Nevertheless, because of how we manage our draft picks (and how late our picks usually are), this success is no longer optional.

Here is my complaint: I am disappointed the Heat did not buy into the second round. Around 45-48 (around where Toronto had two draft picks) there should have been an opportunity, provided Miami was willing to hand over some cash. I would have posted this before but I had an icepick in my forehead, put their by the Bucks. Respect. FML

Anyway, with respect to roster size, the Heat have a few decisions to make. I think it's best to go with 14 players for now, leaving one roster space open (which itself is an asset), two 2-ways, and six exhibit 10s to stock the team in Sioux Falls. This will allow the Heat, for example, to convert one of the 2-way contracts to a minimum salary deal (or even to sign a Nunn/Yurtseven deal on the last day of the season).

Exhibit 10 deals are explained here: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q83

Important Detail from salary cap perspective: this money doesn't count toward the salary cap or tax. If it's not used it is opportunity lost.

And, yeah, I've no idea who I'd choose at this point. There are still a few more games to learn. If Miami manages to gets into the playoff, they will have a better stage to showcase their skills.

Also, people that doubt Udonis Haslem rarely come out looking smarter.

[HeatIn5]

Read on Twitter

that's a very impressive list for the 2 of them to be on

[MorbidHEAT]

I've never heard of Marcus Garrett until like yesterday.

Full disclaimer: I've been battling Covid for days.

Whats the verdict on him?

[RexBoyWonder]

Deeky and Garrett are locks to get the 2 way contracts, u can bet on that.

The gap between what they showed and the tier of players below them is too significant at this stage.

only other guys that showed potential are Potter, Nembhard and Carter.