Trade Talk (Part Seven)

[winforlose]

I think the bigger issue with Simmons is he is a bad fit. Even if his defense is stellar (debatable,) and his upside is incredible (still hasn’t learned to shoot,) he just doesn’t fit with our gameplan. MCD is a guy who can hit the corner 3 and on occasion take it to the basket. Simmons is a guy who needs to go inside because he cannot play outside. The issue is that KAT likes to post up or go inside and with Simmons clogging the lane this is much more difficult. Simmons lack of mid range also makes pick and roll more challenging when he is not the roller. Also, there is the question of what we can do with the money. Simmons ties up 33 plus million this year and 35 next year. You can get multiple rotation players for that money and while Simmons might get you X wins when healthy, one injury takes that away. 2 or 3 value players like Beasley who you need to lose to get Simmons spread out the injury risk. If Beasley goes down that is 15 million on the bench instead of 33. We already have our stars in KAT and Dlo, with Ant becoming a third (hopefully.) What we need is bigs who can shoot from distance and play defense. Simmons only meets one of those two criteria.

You lost me when you said Kat likes playing on the block. Kat would gladly chuck all day. For all I care, play Simmons at the 5 on offense and Kat the 4.

I would simply ask you to look at KAT’s shot chart or highlights on YouTube before continuing this. When he isn’t shooting 3s he is often posting up or attacking off the dribble.

[Baseline81]

Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.

[Norseman79]

I think the bigger issue with Simmons is he is a bad fit. Even if his defense is stellar (debatable,) and his upside is incredible (still hasn’t learned to shoot,) he just doesn’t fit with our gameplan. MCD is a guy who can hit the corner 3 and on occasion take it to the basket. Simmons is a guy who needs to go inside because he cannot play outside. The issue is that KAT likes to post up or go inside and with Simmons clogging the lane this is much more difficult. Simmons lack of mid range also makes pick and roll more challenging when he is not the roller. Also, there is the question of what we can do with the money. Simmons ties up 33 plus million this year and 35 next year. You can get multiple rotation players for that money and while Simmons might get you X wins when healthy, one injury takes that away. 2 or 3 value players like Beasley who you need to lose to get Simmons spread out the injury risk. If Beasley goes down that is 15 million on the bench instead of 33. We already have our stars in KAT and Dlo, with Ant becoming a third (hopefully.) What we need is bigs who can shoot from distance and play defense. Simmons only meets one of those two criteria.

You lost me when you said Kat likes playing on the block. Kat would gladly chuck all day. For all I care, play Simmons at the 5 on offense and Kat the 4.

I would simply ask you to look at KAT’s shot chart or highlights on YouTube before continuing this. When he isn’t shooting 3s he is often posting up or attacking off the dribble.

I'm not saying he can't do those things, but don't pretend like he demands the ball on the block as he loves playing physical. He doesn't.

[winforlose]

You lost me when you said Kat likes playing on the block. Kat would gladly chuck all day. For all I care, play Simmons at the 5 on offense and Kat the 4.

I would simply ask you to look at KAT’s shot chart or highlights on YouTube before continuing this. When he isn’t shooting 3s he is often posting up or attacking off the dribble.

I'm not saying he can't do those things, but don't pretend like he demands the ball on the block as he loves playing physical. He doesn't.

I didn’t pretend anything of the sort, I simply addressed things as they are. Simmons limits KAT’s options as well as Ant’s. Dlo doesn’t need clean driving lanes but the other two do, and they are less likely to get them with Simmons.

[moonpie]

Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.

While ideally there would be a 3rd team that would give the Sixers a win-now package, Morey and co. will need to weigh whether or not to just take in those assets now and flip them later vs. having a disgruntled/possibly holdout Simmons as well as the possibility of damaging a relationship with one of the big power brokers in Rich Paul and Klutch

[Krapinsky]

I think the problem comes when people aren't willing to admit there is a gray area. There are more than two options here. Contracts aren't just bad or good. Ben Simmons isn't on a good contract, but that doesn't make it a bad contract necessarily.

It is a bad contract. It is not even debatable, there isn't a gray area on this. He is an underperforming player on a MAX contract. While he isn't the worst contract he is up there. He is a good player, paid like he is a great player. It is a bad contract.

I have seen a poster or two act like Simmons is a bad player, there is issue to take with that, but posters who act like calling something for what it is, i.e. that Simmons is a bad contract is somehow equal to calling him a bad player...this is also a problem. That is the gray area, that a player can be good and a bad contract at the same time.

The second part is understanding that bad contracts, be the player good or not has an affect on trade value.

Not debatable? Over his first 4 years in the league he is ranked 14 in total winshares. By that measure he should be the 14th highest paid player. He hasn’t even hit his prime yet, so over the next 4 years you’d expect him to rank even higher.

[Krapinsky]

Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.

Seems clear to me that Wolves were showcasing McDaniels in summer league to increase his trade value. He’s the one piece we can trade that isn’t a ‘win now’ player.

[Krapinsky]

I would simply ask you to look at KAT’s shot chart or highlights on YouTube before continuing this. When he isn’t shooting 3s he is often posting up or attacking off the dribble.

I'm not saying he can't do those things, but don't pretend like he demands the ball on the block as he loves playing physical. He doesn't.

I didn’t pretend anything of the sort, I simply addressed things as they are. Simmons limits KAT’s options as well as Ant’s. Dlo doesn’t need clean driving lanes but the other two do, and they are less likely to get them with Simmons.

Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.

[Nick K]

Something to consider. Just listened to Danes most recent pod, both him and Michael Rand state they believe KAT will demand out and be traded next offseason if they don’t go over 500. I don’t think this roster goes over 500 without another major move. Are we ready to blow this up again? I’d rather go for it now with a Simmons type move.

Highly doubt that.

I find Dane as entertaining as the next random Podcaster but his takes haven’t exactly been stellar lately (if ever). I’d take anything he says with a massive grain of salt.

His take is not without reason, but I would take a different approach. As management, with the players around Towns, I would start thinking about moving him if the team doesn’t break .500. At some point, you have to hold your franchise player accountable to your team’s success. That why he and his buddy DLo are being paid the big bucks. I expect them to surpass .500 easily.

Injuries played a major role in last year’s record. However, it also prevented players from reaching peak physical ability. It’s just not how many games they played together, but how many they played together in peak condition. We swept the team with the best record in the NBA last year (Jazz), and we never reached our collective peak as a team. Now, we have one of the best offensive minds in the game at the helm. If Finch gets these guys committed on the defensive end, we’re going to make some serious noise.

Good stuff. I agree. Although I'd be very careful making Kat the scapegoat for our problems. It won't come to that I'm thinking.

[KGdaBom]

It is a bad contract. It is not even debatable, there isn't a gray area on this. He is an underperforming player on a MAX contract. While he isn't the worst contract he is up there. He is a good player, paid like he is a great player. It is a bad contract.

I have seen a poster or two act like Simmons is a bad player, there is issue to take with that, but posters who act like calling something for what it is, i.e. that Simmons is a bad contract is somehow equal to calling him a bad player...this is also a problem. That is the gray area, that a player can be good and a bad contract at the same time.

The second part is understanding that bad contracts, be the player good or not has an affect on trade value.

Simmons bad contract???????????? No way.

Whatever. All the necessary points have been made. If you believe this or can't admit he is a bad contract, I have made it clear how that makes people look and worse that the a willfully doing it and basically bragging about it...

Yep that anybody who can't tell that Simmons is a bad contract is an idiot.

[Nick K]

Did you possibly mean Ant instead of DLo in the bolded above?

Even though people think of him as a point forward, Simmons absolutely cannot play PG on offense. At least in the half court. There are hilarious pics out there of him handling in the half court and his man is 20 feet off him. Kills an offense. Makes pick and roll impossible. He has to be the pick man, cutter, dunker spot guy in the half court and will do that very well.

I agree Simmons can't be your lead ballhandler in halfcourt situation. I think it is not only about Simmons, it is also about context and the most important thing it is about coaching creativity. Brett Brown and Doc Rivers are both mediocre coaches at best. Yes, Simmons is an awful shooter. But next to Towns, Edwards and Russell he can be a very unique weapon because of many reasons:

* - short roll passing. Simmons is very quick decision maker which allows him to make this touch passes. He is on Dray Green level as short roll passer. The difference is that Simmons never had Klay Thompson, KD and Curry as shooters and Steve Kerr as a coach. We can surround him with two elite shooters in Towns and DLo, under Finch coaching
* - passing out of the post. He can score in the post, and he can post up and pass out of the post.
* - he can even pass from dunker spot, he finds cutters and open shooters with easy
* - as you mentioned he is good at cutting, finishing from dunker spot. I would only add that for years we dont have a quality rim runner, dunker, roll man at PF position. I am kind of optimistic about his ability to stretch the floor towards the rim adding another dimension to our offense. Sure we need to surround him with shooters and run heavy motion. KAT-Simmons-McDaniels-Edwards-DLo lineup would be very dangerous because Simmons would bring everything we need in defense (versatility, IQ, size, athleticism, toughness) and most importantly transition defense, where we rank 28th in NBA.

I think you nailed it. The key is to cover Simmons many weaknesses and put him in a position to best use his talents.

I do not think Rosas will move Kat, Dlo, Ant or McD in a Simmons trade. So that leaves anybody else. Take your pick plus picks. Rosas will wait it out to get the deal he wants. The longer it goes the less Philly gets. Morey has overplayed his hand.

[KGdaBom]

I think the problem comes when people aren't willing to admit there is a gray area. There are more than two options here. Contracts aren't just bad or good. Ben Simmons isn't on a good contract, but that doesn't make it a bad contract necessarily.

It is a bad contract. It is not even debatable, there isn't a gray area on this. He is an underperforming player on a MAX contract. While he isn't the worst contract he is up there. He is a good player, paid like he is a great player. It is a bad contract.

I have seen a poster or two act like Simmons is a bad player, there is issue to take with that, but posters who act like calling something for what it is, i.e. that Simmons is a bad contract is somehow equal to calling him a bad player...this is also a problem. That is the gray area, that a player can be good and a bad contract at the same time.

The second part is understanding that bad contracts, be the player good or not has an affect on trade value.

Not debatable? Over his first 4 years in the league he is ranked 14 in total winshares. By that measure he should be the 14th highest paid player. He hasn’t even hit his prime yet, so over the next 4 years you’d expect him to rank even higher.

Nope. So Money has spoken. It's not debatable and anybody who thinks otherwise is an idiot.

[winforlose]

I'm not saying he can't do those things, but don't pretend like he demands the ball on the block as he loves playing physical. He doesn't.

I didn’t pretend anything of the sort, I simply addressed things as they are. Simmons limits KAT’s options as well as Ant’s. Dlo doesn’t need clean driving lanes but the other two do, and they are less likely to get them with Simmons.

Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.

Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

[shrink]

Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.

Can someone post when the Bev deal is official? At that point, we’d need to wait two months (maybe a little less for the shortened offseason) before we could aggregate his salary in a Simmons trade.

Thanks a lot for posting this Baseline.

Any word on Vanderbilt, McLaughlin (or Millsap)?

[shrink]

Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.

I also wanted to remind people just how hard it is to build a team around Simmons extreme limitations. I’m not saying he isn’t good at what he does do, but as the Sixers know, he doesn’t fit with a lot of teams. Most teams don’t have the right mix, and those that were close lost the time it takes during the summer to get the right pieces around him. I think Morey made a mistake by asking for the moon and delaying a trade, because it cost him buyers - they needed to get on with their summer and build their rosters without Simmons.

Again, I disagree with people who say he is a “perfect fit” here. He minimizes Towns advantage of forcing a big to defend both our bigs outside, and by packing Simmons defender lower, they clog the lane, hurting Edwards too. I’d also remind people MIN was 25th in 3P% last season. I have never believed PHI can just bring Simmons back, but there aren’t many teams who would trade for him now either. I hope MIN passes on him.

[shrink]

Seems clear to me that Wolves were showcasing McDaniels in summer league to increase his trade value. He’s the one piece we can trade that isn’t a ‘win now’ player.

I disagree. I think Rosas views McDaniels as a keeper, and has said so many times. I think they used Summer League as a chance for McDaniels to play a more wide open game, to assess what he needs to work on and where he could grow, before he is slid back into a more complimentary role during the regular season.

[Nick K]

I didn’t pretend anything of the sort, I simply addressed things as they are. Simmons limits KAT’s options as well as Ant’s. Dlo doesn’t need clean driving lanes but the other two do, and they are less likely to get them with Simmons.

Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.

Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Well said. Makes perfect sense to me! And NO, Simmons is not close to Kat's level overall as a player. BTW, the 36.5 win projection is meaningless except to facilitate bets. That number will go up. Right now I would bet a lot on the over with our team as it stands right now.

[shrink]

Finally, as to the “good contract vs bad contract” debate, I’d lean towards bad, but I think it’s close. For big name, big salary players, they often receive slightly positive trade returns, but with the size of the contract, they fall off a cliff quickly and become one of the league’s worst contracts.

First, for even the most ardent Simmons fan, do you think his production could be worth more than $140 mil over the next four years? That’s a lot of money - and it’s guaranteed. The odds that Simmons loses time to injury over that period, or doesn’t improve his shooting, or never regains his confidence, is pretty high, so the contract has a lot of downside, and not much upside. Moreover, players who’d strongest skill is defense never get big salaries - “go to” scorers get paid.

However, the other side of the coin is that a player like Simmons may win you games. Big name/salary players consolidate talent into one of the five roster spots you can get on the floor.if you paid $90 mil for 90 units of production for the rest of your team, spending $10 mil for 10 more units still loses you games if the other team puts up 105 units. That $10 doesn’t help you win. However, if Ben gives you 20 more units for $30 mil, that may be “overpaid” on average, but with the 110 units, you now win that game. This is why borderline superstars get max deals. I just question whether Simmons flaws (irregular fit, lack of growth, confidence, shooting) can all simultaneously exist and we still pay a guy like a superstar.

Stars with holes are the most likely candidates in the NBA to become bad contracts.

[Nick K]

You lost me when you said Kat likes playing on the block. Kat would gladly chuck all day. For all I care, play Simmons at the 5 on offense and Kat the 4.

I would simply ask you to look at KAT’s shot chart or highlights on YouTube before continuing this. When he isn’t shooting 3s he is often posting up or attacking off the dribble.

I'm not saying he can't do those things, but don't pretend like he demands the ball on the block as he loves playing physical. He doesn't.

Respectfully norseman you are wrong on this one. Kat is a great post player AND a great long range shooter. Fabulous FT shooter and superb rebounder too.

Do you realize Kat put up numbers per game last year of 25 pts, 11 rebs, 5 asts, He shot 49% from the field and 39% from 3. And 86% from the line. Those are close to his career numbers too. He is very consistent and getting better. How many guys put up those kind of numbers? Not many.

[Nick K]

Finally, as to the “good contract vs bad contract” debate, I’d lean towards bad, but I think it’s close. For big name, big salary players, they often receive slightly positive trade returns, but with the size of the contract, they fall off a cliff quickly and become one of the league’s worst contracts.

First, for even the most ardent Simmons fan, do you think his production could be worth more than $140 mil over the next four years? That’s a lot of money - and it’s guaranteed. The odds that Simmons loses time to injury over that period, or doesn’t improve his shooting, or never regains his confidence, is pretty high, so the contract has a lot of downside, and not much upside. Moreover, players who’d strongest skill is defense never get big salaries - “go to” scorers get paid.

However, the other side of the coin is that a player like Simmons may win you games. Big name/salary players consolidate talent into one of the five roster spots you can get on the floor.if you paid $90 mil for 90 units of production for the rest of your team, spending $10 mil for 10 more units still loses you games if the other team puts up 105 units. That $10 doesn’t help you win. However, if Ben gives you 20 more units for $30 mil, that may be “overpaid” on average, but with the 110 units, you now win that game. This is why borderline superstars get max deals. I just question whether Simmons flaws (irregular fit, lack of growth, confidence, shooting) can all simultaneously exist and we still pay a guy like a superstar.

Stars with holes are the most likely candidates in the NBA to become bad contracts.

Damn, that's good. Right on.