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Trade Talk (Part Eight)

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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#21 » by Note30 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:36 am

Klomp wrote:A couple of thoughts:

In a recent interview, one of our reporters (Jon?) said that our front office sees Simmons as a PF in our system and not a PG. This is important for those who think he would take the ball out of the hands of Russell and/or Edwards and thus hinder the offense more than help it.

Does he need the ball in his hands constantly in order to maximize his value to a team? I'd actually argue the opposite. Take a little bit off of his plate, and allow him to focus more where he can really shine. Do people think Draymond Green is overpaid for the role he plays in Golden State as a screener, cutter, secondary facilitator, defender? Would he have more value or less to his team if he facilitated more?

When did Simmons play his best? I'd argue it was 2018-19. Don't forget they took the world champs to 7 games that season (the only team to do that). What was different? He was put around great shooters and scorers and it allowed him to focus on what he is best at (his 16.9 ppg was 5th on the team).

People talk a lot about Simmons clogging the lane for a five-out offense (cue shrink). I think where this argument falls short is because we're starting to accumulate players with greater basketball IQ, and Simmons would be no exception. This isn't a situation like Wiggins where you have to tell him when and where to cut. This also isn't an offensive system like Saunders' that has rules about when you should cut. This is a read and react offense predicated on flow and less on play calls. Some people don't like the more street ball nature this can create, but it allows the players with greater IQ to shine because there are no limitations or rules placed on them. It's just basketball. This is where I think Simmons excels. His IQ is among the best in the league.



The ball will not be taken completely out of Simmons' hands. Just as an example, the coaches give players the green light for whoever rebounds the ball to start the fast break or secondary break. This is where Simmons can truly shine. He's not afraid of rebounding the ball, averaging 8 rebounds per game in his career (I remind you, this is while playing alongside career 11.3 rpg Joel Embiid, so he wouldn't be fazed by playing next to Towns in this category). How many Timberwolves do you know who have averaged 8 rpg in their careers? The list is not long, only six players in fact (Love, Towns, Garnett, Jefferson, Gugliotta, Laettner).

Now for the money talk. He's due $146,684,160 ($36,671,040 AAV) over the next four seasons. It's a lot of money, I admit, especially when Towns ($33,833,400 AAV for three seasons) and Russell ($30,695,625 AAV for two seasons) are also on the books. But this isn't that outlandish compared to the rest of the NBA landscape. Towns will turn 26 this season. Russell will turn 26 this season. Ben Simmons is 25 this season. These are not old players. These are not players on the downturn of their careers. A little context is important. Take this from a recent Hollinger article:

Spoiler:
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The NBA salary cap ($112.414 million) is very different from where it was even just a decade ago ($58.044 million).

Another thing in the team's favor is Anthony Edwards and his 11,504,565 AAV over the next three years. This is the time when you make a trade like this. Don't wait until Edwards is on his max contract.

In 2003-04, the Timberwolves Big 3 (+1) made 124% of the salary cap. A potential Big 3+1 in Minnesota (Towns, Edwards, Russell, Simmons) this season would be only 93% of the salary cap by comparison.


Damn this was the most well put together post on why a trade for Simmons would be a great thing.

Kind of hard to argue with all of this.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#22 » by Krapinsky » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:46 am

shrink wrote:Read what Chris Finch just said about McDaniels, in the McDaniels thread.


I’m old enough to remember when Darko was ‘mana from heaven.’

Its almost like we want Simmons but don’t have the talents/assets to entice Philadelphia, so we need a third team to buy this McDaniels being compared to future hall of famers nonsense.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#23 » by Krapinsky » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:14 am

shrink wrote:I had a long post written for veritas, since he seems to be insulting everyone for attention. But let me spell it out in broad terms.

It is a logical fallacy to attribute the results of a group to one individual. For example

MIN was a bad team last year
KAT is on the team
Therefore, KAT is a bad player

That is bad logic.

It is also bad logic to see the effect “bad team” and assume the cause “KAT is bad.”


For those that can’t follow this, it is why we shouldn’t say “Simmons (or Embiid, or any individual player) gets your team wins.” It violates two pretty important rules of logic.

( Shangrila - that is my issue, not refusing to say something good about Simmons. In fact, I regularly repeat how good a defender he is, although it might not need to be said - we all agree with that. :wink: You might want to read my fairly even-handed view on whether Simmons is a bad contract as well.)


No stat is perfect but there are a lot of smart people out there that have come out with advanced stats (cough cough e.g. winshares) that allow you to make a reasoned analysis without resorting to logical fallacies. Those stats suggest Simmons has performed like a top 15 NBA player.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#24 » by Klomp » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:23 am

The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#25 » by Note30 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:42 am

Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.


I mean value changes based on perception in addition to statistical value.

That's just life. Company X says something stupid and stock goes down. It's financials don't change at all.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#26 » by packforfreedom » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:51 am

Okay I was one of the biggest anti-Simmons people when the rumors started and I am also liking McDaniels and think he has nice potential, but the idea that we would make him untouchable in trade scenarios for Ben Simmons is a bit silly in my opinion.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#27 » by shrink » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:40 pm

Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.

Except Simmons was exposed worse than any player I can remember in the final game of their playoffs. Contract value is based on future money vs future expected value. If a player got injured in the playoffs, we would reassess the value of his contract.

I don’t think Simmons is an extremely bad contract, but I have yet to hear anyone assure me that opposing coaches won’t play “Hack-a-Ben” in close games?
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#28 » by Krapinsky » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:57 pm

shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.

Except Simmons was exposed worse than any player I can remember in the final game of their playoffs. Contract value is based on future money vs future expected value. If a player got injured in the playoffs, we would reassess the value of his contract.

I don’t think Simmons is an extremely bad contract, but I have yet to hear anyone assure me that opposing coaches won’t play “Hack-a-Ben” in close games?


As long as he shoots close to 60% it's not a good strategy for them (1.2 points per possession) and due to the rule changes teams can't intentionally foul in last 2 minutes. We have a 4 year sample size that suggests he'll continue to shoot 60%.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#29 » by shrink » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:05 pm

Krapinsky wrote:
shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.

Except Simmons was exposed worse than any player I can remember in the final game of their playoffs. Contract value is based on future money vs future expected value. If a player got injured in the playoffs, we would reassess the value of his contract.

I don’t think Simmons is an extremely bad contract, but I have yet to hear anyone assure me that opposing coaches won’t play “Hack-a-Ben” in close games?


As long as he shoots close to 60% it's not a good strategy for them (1.2 points per possession) and due to the rule changes teams can't intentionally foul in last 2 minutes. We have a 4 year sample size that suggests he'll continue to shoot 60%.

But his FT% shooting has gotten worse and worse in every playoffs (.707, .575, .342 .. net 52%).

People want to say “Simmons wins you games.” If you believe in the concept of “crunch time,” it looks to me like the more crunchier the time, the worse Simmons does. And that’s without opposing coaches targeting him, increasing the pressure.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#30 » by KGdaBom » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:59 pm

shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.

Except Simmons was exposed worse than any player I can remember in the final game of their playoffs. Contract value is based on future money vs future expected value. If a player got injured in the playoffs, we would reassess the value of his contract.

I don’t think Simmons is an extremely bad contract, but I have yet to hear anyone assure me that opposing coaches won’t play “Hack-a-Ben” in close games?

Let them play Hack a Ben. So what. His FT shooting isn't that bad to completely wipe out all of his great points.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#31 » by shrink » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:33 pm

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/video/flat-out-it-worked-marc-jackson-wizards-hack-ben-strategy

And



And note, this was after the Wizards did this to him. Not at Atlanta.

I would worry about his chance of making future free throws after the Atlanta series is much worse. I don’t think anyone can deny his poor free throw shooting certainly affected Ben, with his unwillingness to touch the ball and not even dunking, as he tried to avoid getting fouled and being embarrassed nationally in a big game.

I hear what people are saying about his four year, regular season free throw rate, but I don’t think he was ever in as bad a place mentally now as he was at anytime in those four years. Worse, Ben has shown for many years now that has not been able to improve his shooting. I understand he is a great player defensively and has many other concerns, but it amazes me that people don’t have concerns about coaches in the future relying on “Hack-a-Ben.”
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#32 » by _AIJ_ » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:37 pm

No one is gonna do hack-a-ben if the Wolves are winning 15+ points per game
LETS GO WOLVES!!! 8-)
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#33 » by Macwolf527 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 4:49 pm

Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.


There’s not a team in the NBA who wouldn’t like to have Simmons, it’s just how much they’re willing to pay. Some teams are wiling to pay the $33mil, the Wolves being one of them. That’s market rate as I see it. Negative contract my behind. Philly is not a one seed in the East without him.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#34 » by KGdaBom » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:04 pm

shrink wrote:https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/video/flat-out-it-worked-marc-jackson-wizards-hack-ben-strategy

And



And note, this was after the Wizards did this to him. Not at Atlanta.

I would worry about his chance of making future free throws after the Atlanta series is much worse. I don’t think anyone can deny his poor free throw shooting certainly affected Ben, with his unwillingness to touch the ball and not even dunking, as he tried to avoid getting fouled and being embarrassed nationally in a big game.

I hear what people are saying about his four year, regular season free throw rate, but I don’t think he was ever in as bad a place mentally now as he was at anytime in those four years. Worse, Ben has shown for many years now that has not been able to improve his shooting. I understand he is a great player defensively and has many other concerns, but it amazes me that people don’t have concerns about coaches in the future relying on “Hack-a-Ben.”

Be amazed. I have no concerns about Hack-a-Ben if we acquire him.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#35 » by SO_MONEY » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:04 pm

Macwolf527 wrote:
Klomp wrote:The funny thing is the chatter about Simmons being such a negative contract never really started until this postseason. If it was so bad, it would've been bad before.


There’s not a team in the NBA who wouldn’t like to have Simmons, it’s just how much they’re willing to pay. Some teams are wiling to pay the $33mil, the Wolves being one of them. That’s market rate as I see it. Negative contract my behind. Philly is not a one seed in the East without him.


It is a bad contract and MN wouldn't pay him $35mil if they had a choice. They are only willing to eat it because of their cap situation and not being able to generate enough flexibility to allow a choice. That is why they are targeting depressed assets like Simmons, because he isn't worth what a market value contract would demand in a trade.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#36 » by Dewey » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:35 pm

Prolly need to start a long list of what bad contracts really are … who’s they are … and where they are. At this point, this is prolly the only exercise that would lay out the reality. Pretty certain it will stop the whining about how bad Simmons deal is.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#37 » by IceManBK1 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:02 pm

https://www.nbaanalysis.net/2021/08/18/nba-rumors-philadelphia-76ers-houston-rockets-trade-eric-gordon/2/

"I think" Hou might be interested in moving Eric Gordon for assets since they're rebuilding and just drafted jalen green. Beasley might be a good replacement for Gordon. We can get Prince+Eric Gordon and couple 1st rder picks going to Philly. They'll get 2 win now players who can contribute along with the future assets. Hou can get Beasley, Layman and salary filler from us. And we get Simmons.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#38 » by SO_MONEY » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:03 pm

Dewey wrote:Prolly need to start a long list of what bad contracts really are … who’s they are … and where they are. At this point, this is prolly the only exercise that would lay out the reality. Pretty certain it will stop the whining about how bad Simmons deal is.


Or you could Google people who have already done this.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#39 » by shrink » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:23 pm

Dewey wrote:Prolly need to start a long list of what bad contracts really are … who’s they are … and where they are. At this point, this is prolly the only exercise that would lay out the reality. Pretty certain it will stop the whining about how bad Simmons deal is.

I was surprised to see this, but Ben Simmons came in as the tenth worst contract.

https://www.si.com/nba/76ers/news/list-worst-current-nba-contracts-76ers-ben-simmons-tobias-harris

Eddie Bitar of Fadeaway World put together a list of the top ten current worst contracts in the NBA. Although several NBA teams are involved, only the Sixers appear on the list twice as they currently have Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris locked into significant multi-year deals.

Coming in at the 10th spot is the disgruntled guard, Ben Simmons. Just a couple of offseasons ago, the Sixers banked on Simmons' ability to be a cornerstone of the franchise by offering him a max contract after shipping off Jimmy Butler to the Miami Heat in a sign-and-trade.

After missing the postseason due to injury two seasons ago and having a disappointing second-round series last season, Bitar suggests that Simmons being a "liability on the floor in crunch time" is a valid reason to consider him overpaid.

"Simmons is a liability on the floor in crunch time, which is very strange for the team's best playmaker and starting point guard. Unless Simmons can get out of his own head and improve his shooting from all over the floor, he will never be worth the max money he will receive over the next 4 years."

Simmons being considered overpaid is a new trend this offseason. However, the next Sixers player on the list has been a regular on many lists like this ever since he inked a max contract with the 76ers a couple of offseasons ago.


I wouldn’t put Simmons in my bottom ten, but I think we should stop insulting people who have different views on his contract, whatever they are. People can rationally disagree on this topic.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Eight) 

Post#40 » by SO_MONEY » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:39 pm

shrink wrote:
Dewey wrote:Prolly need to start a long list of what bad contracts really are … who’s they are … and where they are. At this point, this is prolly the only exercise that would lay out the reality. Pretty certain it will stop the whining about how bad Simmons deal is.

I was surprised to see this, but Ben Simmons came in as the tenth worst contract.

https://www.si.com/nba/76ers/news/list-worst-current-nba-contracts-76ers-ben-simmons-tobias-harris

Eddie Bitar of Fadeaway World put together a list of the top ten current worst contracts in the NBA. Although several NBA teams are involved, only the Sixers appear on the list twice as they currently have Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris locked into significant multi-year deals.

Coming in at the 10th spot is the disgruntled guard, Ben Simmons. Just a couple of offseasons ago, the Sixers banked on Simmons' ability to be a cornerstone of the franchise by offering him a max contract after shipping off Jimmy Butler to the Miami Heat in a sign-and-trade.

After missing the postseason due to injury two seasons ago and having a disappointing second-round series last season, Bitar suggests that Simmons being a "liability on the floor in crunch time" is a valid reason to consider him overpaid.

"Simmons is a liability on the floor in crunch time, which is very strange for the team's best playmaker and starting point guard. Unless Simmons can get out of his own head and improve his shooting from all over the floor, he will never be worth the max money he will receive over the next 4 years."

Simmons being considered overpaid is a new trend this offseason. However, the next Sixers player on the list has been a regular on many lists like this ever since he inked a max contract with the 76ers a couple of offseasons ago.


I wouldn’t put Simmons in my bottom ten, but I think we should stop insulting people who have different views on his contract, whatever they are. People can rationally disagree on this topic.


Inside the worst 10? Maybe...

I think that is a bit high, but 15-20 is right in his range before FA, but I guess I would have to go through everything. He is a bad contract!!!

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