Post#107 » by younggunsmn » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:50 pm
So here is my ten cents on Simmons.
Anyone who is capable of being the 2nd best player on an average playoff team, on a basic max (not supermax or vet supermax) contract technically is not overpaid.
That is the line I draw for whether anyone on a max contract is "overpaid" or becomes a "bad contract".
If you are only CAPABLE of being a 3rd wheel or less on a good team (looking at you Wiggins and Russell (I don't consider that Nets team Russell snuck into the playoffs with to be a playoff caliber team), you don't deserve a max contract.
The Nets have 3 #1's, Lowry on the Heat has been a solid #2 for years, some teams are just lucky.
So where does that leave SImmons? He has been that guy before and I believe he will be again. Look at that sixers roster last year and compare it to some of the previous ones. He desperately needed another guard next to him who was a threat at all 3 levels like Redick previously. Anyone who consistently gets you 16+ PPG on 11-12 FGA with All-NBA defense at 6'10" with solid rebounding and passing is a pretty valuable player. Forgetting Simmons, read that last sentence again and ask yourself, isn't that the exact type of player we've been trying to put next to KAT?
So the next question becomes what is he worth on the trade market? Morey wants an Alpha guard to put with Embiid and Harris.
SInce Russell is a no and Ant a hell no from this front office, where does that leave us?
There aren't any of those guys available right now. Morey is hoping for a LIllard or Beal, but they aren't on the table.
Beal can become a FA after the season so he might be available at the deadline, but there reportedly will only be 3 teams with cap space next summer (OKC, SA and ORL), and none will be a FA destination.
The best offers right now have reportedly included McCollum and Hield.
You have to think something along the lines of Beasley+exprings+2 1sts would be more attractive than that.
If we can't give them what they want, we can give them currency to get what they want. Our own future picks in a loaded western conference are pretty valuable currency. It gives them picks+ salary match to chase beal at the deadline or to move salary next summer to sign him outright.
Regarding Simmons contract hamstringing us:
Point 1: We are locked into Russel for 2 years, KAT for 3, and have ANT on a rookie deal for 3 more years. Simmons has 4 guaranteed years left. We have 2 years left of the KAT/D-Lo experiment. At that point KAT will likely either re-sign or be traded. We are capped out for 2 more years pretty much regardless of if we trade for SImmons or not. The only question is how much is ownership willing to spend if we end up putting a winning team out there. Because if we don't win, it's going to get blown up regardless. Could we re-tool at that point around SImmons and Ant?
Point 2: What is the alternative? What is the opportunity cost we would be giving up by trading for Simmons?
What else could we possibly get for what we would be giving up in trade, free agency, or in the draft?
As far as free agency, we will only have the MLE the next 2 years, and using that or not using it is a quesiton of is ownership willing to spend.
Outside of the top 3, the draft has been pretty awful for lottery picks the last 2 years. 2022 doesnt look great either.
What are some of our other trade options?
Simmons works best as a transition player, grabbing the rebound and pushing the pace. I remember a couple Sixergames where they absolutely torched us in transition. He's incredibly quick up the floor, would pair well with ANT.
He'd also be a great cutting threat. You stick him in a corner, and you allow his defender to sag off, and that is a problem, so you have to be creative. You can start him as the roller, or run a pop and re-screen with him as the ballhandler and create matchup nightmares. You can't guard him with a standard big so the other team still has to put their big on KAT. I really like the possibilities, we need the extra dimension because D-Lo is not good at getting in the lane. I think Simmons could be significantly better with the talent we could put around him.
I just think when you look at the bigger picture, his value isnt defined by one bad playoff series which is why we may have the opportunity to buy low.
The one serious question I would have were I our front office would be making sure his back is 100% healed.
We really would be buying low. Morey cast cast his lot by shopping him. I don't think Simmons is going to put on a circus like Butler, but trading him before the Season starts would be smartest.
I personally draw the line at expirings or Beasley + expirings + 2 top 5 protected 1sts round picks.
I could be talked into making it a 2022 unprotected + 2024 top 5 protected. If they want McDaniels instead, they have to take out one of those picks. I like McDaniels too, but its insane to make him a dealbreaker with the incredibly low usage he had on the offensive end last year.
So my preferred offer is Beverly+Prince+20221st (top5)+2024 1st (top 5).
The highest I would go is Beverly+Beasley+2022 1st (unprotected)+McDaniels.
I can see Morey rather having capspace next summer, so the more likley filler IMHO is Beverly+Prince (plus layman if we can get them to take him).