OT: Crypto, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Investments, IRAs & Finances, etc.

[br7knicks]

3 of my main 5 growth ETFs are ARKX, ARKQ, and ARKF (VUG, VBK). i didn't realize he shorted those. he's usually spot on with his shorts. i know woods thinks that we're not in a bubble, and we're still only headed up - i believe more along with what you believe, right? i know woods is really smart, and i trust her more than most people.

i started to watch the video, but she does way too much lip smacking for me, which gets me irrationally irritated lol.

It's a tough one. Burry is really old school and chases value. And he's always been super bearish. Technically, yes, he might be right. But imo, saying there will be a crash is still wrong if you've been saying it for years. Peter Schiff is the same way. He might be right, and I'm sure he will throw it in our face if a crash does happen. But he's been saying it for close to a decade now.

Unless we are rich, we really can't afford to sit on a pile of cash and wait for a golden opportunity. Inflation will just kick our ass. Consistency with stability is probably our safest bet.

I might jump in on ARKK as a long term hold in my HSA. I currently just hold $VNQ in my HSA and auto invest the dividends. Or I might just do QQQ instead of ARKK. I like Cathie. But not sure I know much about her ETFs to be comfortable with long holds

that's definitely true about peter schiff. i get some of his points, but you're right in that he's just going to continue saying there will be a crash until he's right - a broken clock is right twice a day.


i thought about QQQ but feel i'm too far behind in it. that's why i want to get into the ARKs while it's about half the price of QQQ.


i don't necessarily think there will be a crash like we saw last year. but i do think a major dip might happen within the next year, especially if delta throws us into another spiral downwards.

[Stannis]

and you may be right. my dad, who has invested very well and consistently the last 40 years, is in your boat. again, i will continue to throw $100 each week into my M1 Finance - where my growth ETFs are. but i'm still going to keep hoarding my Robinhood dividends and throw in when i think there's a major dip.

wish i shared your optimism.

haha, I'm as pessimistic as they come. But I just don't think it's worth waiting for a dip. I like Buffett's philosophy that time is the best investing asset.

Of course, still keep enough cash in an emergency fund to keep your sanity and well-being.

EDIT: I like Peter Lynch's philosophy too. Always let your winners win. If you believe in them, you will keep adding to them during dips.

yeah, i know you're right, especially with the buffet thing. that's why i'll continue to put $100 into M1 Finance every week, where my ARK and Vanguard growth ETFs are.


but i also know the buffet saying: be scared when others are greedy, and greedy when others are scared. i just feel like there are too many retail investors who are jacking up the price (they're being greedy).

Yeah, just stay away from those stocks (e.g. $WISH). There's a reason Cathie wouldn't touch wish even though it has a lot of pumpers on Reddit and even SeekingAlpha

[KOA]

I’m not sure how any of these valuations are justifiable even to the most optimistic value investor. With minimal alternative investments that provide reasonable returns, stocks are significantly over inflated. Once the Treasury begins to taper to combat inflation (this is a matter of when not if), we will start to see the cookie crumble. Until that time, funds are trying to pump as much air into the balloon as possible.

[Stannis]

Steel seems to be in it's own secular bull market which happens from time to time

Now, look at lumber, gold, copper, uranium, even livestock and grains, all have crashed 10-20% or more in the past few months.

Although I have exited the majority of my commodity trades for a while now, it did not seem to fit with the narrative that the media has been trying to spew that inflation was going crazy

It finally made sense after I watched the video above and why it's quite possible we are going into a deflationary trend going forward

I've been mostly in steel, aluminum, and copper because I work in HVAC. And I see the consolidation and pricing going on. Copper has dropped, but I anticipate it coming back.

But yeah, the gold and silver trades I've made look like straight fumbles haha

i have HL and GPL, as well as IAUF. been getting hammered.

Never heard of those.

I'm just in $AG for silver. $SBSW for Platinum and Palladium. And I just started playing $GOLD for Gold

These are short term stuff. So I just stick to the ones that have the highest volume and not try to find a junior miner.

[Stannis]

Rumors of China implementing a export tax on steel.

[br7knicks]

I've been mostly in steel, aluminum, and copper because I work in HVAC. And I see the consolidation and pricing going on. Copper has dropped, but I anticipate it coming back.

But yeah, the gold and silver trades I've made look like straight fumbles haha

i have HL and GPL, as well as IAUF. been getting hammered.

Never heard of those.

I'm just in $AG for silver. $SBSW for Platinum and Palladium. And I just started playing $GOLD for Gold

These are short term stuff. So I just stick to the ones that have the highest volume and not try to find a junior miner.

Cheap, penny stocks that deal with gold, silver, and mining.

To me, theyre some of my gamble stocks. If they do well, great. But I'm okay with them going under because I don't have too much invested. About 100 shares each

[br7knicks]

I’m not sure how any of these valuations are justifiable even to the most optimistic value investor. With minimal alternative investments that provide reasonable returns, stocks are significantly over inflated. Once the Treasury begins to taper to combat inflation (this is a matter of when not if), we will start to see the cookie crumble. Until that time, funds are trying to pump as much air into the balloon as possible.

This is where I'm at. I can't see it not happening within the next year or so

[Stannis]

I'm more concerned with the potential liquidity issues with ARK ETFs. Most/all those companies are legit and should be around 10 years from now.

Stocks like AMC, WISH, SPACs should go down.

Retail isn't completely to blame here though. Lot of these stocks were so heavily shorted. Even Michael Burry called out the hedge funds for shorting GameStop like that.

[Jeff Van Gully]

haha, I'm as pessimistic as they come. But I just don't think it's worth waiting for a dip. I like Buffett's philosophy that time is the best investing asset.

Of course, still keep enough cash in an emergency fund to keep your sanity and well-being.

EDIT: I like Peter Lynch's philosophy too. Always let your winners win. If you believe in them, you will keep adding to them during dips.

yeah, i know you're right, especially with the buffet thing. that's why i'll continue to put $100 into M1 Finance every week, where my ARK and Vanguard growth ETFs are.


but i also know the buffet saying: be scared when others are greedy, and greedy when others are scared. i just feel like there are too many retail investors who are jacking up the price (they're being greedy).

Yeah, just stay away from those stocks (e.g. $WISH). There's a reason Cathie wouldn't touch wish even though it has a lot of pumpers on Reddit and even SeekingAlpha

speaking of cathie, i've got some ARKK... but i'm wondering if ARKQ isn't the better play. not suggesting either/or, but thinking i should be holding both... especially while ARKQ seems to be down a bit.

[Stannis]

Anyone else thinking of buying/playing $YINN here?

It seems like Chinese stocks are the only value left for now

[br7knicks]

yeah, i know you're right, especially with the buffet thing. that's why i'll continue to put $100 into M1 Finance every week, where my ARK and Vanguard growth ETFs are.


but i also know the buffet saying: be scared when others are greedy, and greedy when others are scared. i just feel like there are too many retail investors who are jacking up the price (they're being greedy).

Yeah, just stay away from those stocks (e.g. $WISH). There's a reason Cathie wouldn't touch wish even though it has a lot of pumpers on Reddit and even SeekingAlpha

speaking of cathie, i've got some ARKK... but i'm wondering if ARKQ isn't the better play. not suggesting either/or, but thinking i should be holding both... especially while ARKQ seems to be down a bit.

I don't think you can go wrong with any of them.

ARKQ is my biggest holding in M1. But I also have X and F.

[Stannis]

$PTSH worst SPAC of all time. Bill Akman promised a good company to acquire and couldn't deliver. Not he's just giving investors to buy their shares for $20.

$PTSH was supposed to be a sure thing, obviously a sure thing is never a sure thing. Chikfila, Subway, Stripe, even SpaceX were some names being thrown around. Eventually, it was just a partial ownership in Universal Music which then fell through.

Luckily I didn't buy. What a nightmare. I feel bad for the investors bag holding @ a huge opportunity costs.

[knickabocker88]

Sold my Disney and put it in VOO a few months ago. My lie is imbalanced, over weighted but I'm not gonna rebalance and just continue to deposit 500 every paycheck

Voo - Trying to get this at 50 % of my pie
Nusi - Target set at 17%
Blackrock - Target set at 10%
Apple - Trying to get it down to 10% currently 35% of my pie

2-3% of Amex, Microsoft, UnitedHealth

[KOA]

Anyone else thinking of buying/playing $YINN here?

It seems like Chinese stocks are the only value left for now

I like Baba options for value.
YINN has a ton of cash on the sidelines

[aq_ua]

Sold my Disney and put it in VOO a few months ago. My lie is imbalanced, over weighted but I'm not gonna rebalance and just continue to deposit 500 every paycheck

Voo - Trying to get this at 50 % of my pie
Nusi - Target set at 17%
Blackrock - Target set at 10%
Apple - Trying to get it down to 10% currently 35% of my pie

2-3% of Amex, Microsoft, UnitedHealth

I'm sure you already know, but Apple and Microsoft are two the largest holdings within VOO, and Disney, Blackrock, AMEX and UNH are also part of the constituents, so you're automatically getting exposure to them each time you invest in VOO. Not necessarily a bad thing, but there's no need to add any exposure via individual stock purchases.

[br7knicks]

.

Watch on YouTube

boom, and like that, he comes out with a video that pretty much explains everything i sent to you in a PM.


again, not sure if you wanted smart investing, or riskier (higher reward) investing. but this video is the smarter way to invest.

[knickabocker88]

Sold my Disney and put it in VOO a few months ago. My lie is imbalanced, over weighted but I'm not gonna rebalance and just continue to deposit 500 every paycheck

Voo - Trying to get this at 50 % of my pie
Nusi - Target set at 17%
Blackrock - Target set at 10%
Apple - Trying to get it down to 10% currently 35% of my pie

2-3% of Amex, Microsoft, UnitedHealth

I'm sure you already know, but Apple and Microsoft are two the largest holdings within VOO, and Disney, Blackrock, AMEX and UNH are also part of the constituents, so you're automatically getting exposure to them each time you invest in VOO. Not necessarily a bad thing, but there's no need to add any exposure via individual stock purchases.

I Still want to outperform the S&P. And if I want to reach my Fire Aspirations faster albeit maybe a little more riskier

[aq_ua]

Sold my Disney and put it in VOO a few months ago. My lie is imbalanced, over weighted but I'm not gonna rebalance and just continue to deposit 500 every paycheck

Voo - Trying to get this at 50 % of my pie
Nusi - Target set at 17%
Blackrock - Target set at 10%
Apple - Trying to get it down to 10% currently 35% of my pie

2-3% of Amex, Microsoft, UnitedHealth

I'm sure you already know, but Apple and Microsoft are two the largest holdings within VOO, and Disney, Blackrock, AMEX and UNH are also part of the constituents, so you're automatically getting exposure to them each time you invest in VOO. Not necessarily a bad thing, but there's no need to add any exposure via individual stock purchases.

I Still want to outperform the S&P. And if I want to reach my Fire Aspirations faster albeit maybe a little more riskier

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Long-Run-Is-Lying-to-You
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/famaandfrenchthreefactormodel.asp

Have you considered factor investing if you are comfortable taking incremental risk for returns? There are so many idiosyncratic events that can effect a single stock (basically uncompensated risk), while statistically speaking 95% of portfolio returns can be explained through the factor model. You can also implement these strategies fairly cheaply by sticking to ETFs and rebalancing yourself.

There is so much academic and analytical support that points to one of a few combinations of diversified portfolios being the most optimal investment strategy for the average investor that I tend to believe the question around which types of assets to invest in is essentially resolved. The bigger questions should be more about what exactly does that FIRE aspiration look like, what is a realistic time horizon for that given expected returns, how do you tax plan in the most optimal way, what is your failsafe, etc.

[br7knicks]

Sold my Disney and put it in VOO a few months ago. My lie is imbalanced, over weighted but I'm not gonna rebalance and just continue to deposit 500 every paycheck

Voo - Trying to get this at 50 % of my pie
Nusi - Target set at 17%
Blackrock - Target set at 10%
Apple - Trying to get it down to 10% currently 35% of my pie

2-3% of Amex, Microsoft, UnitedHealth

i'm about to sell my nusi after their august dividend comes out - i haven't seen them declare it, but usually they would have by now.

i hold 400 of QYLD, and 100 of RYLD. my mistake was that QYRLD and NUSI pretty much have similar holdings, but QYLD is cheaper per dividend.

[br7knicks]

I'm sure you already know, but Apple and Microsoft are two the largest holdings within VOO, and Disney, Blackrock, AMEX and UNH are also part of the constituents, so you're automatically getting exposure to them each time you invest in VOO. Not necessarily a bad thing, but there's no need to add any exposure via individual stock purchases.

I Still want to outperform the S&P. And if I want to reach my Fire Aspirations faster albeit maybe a little more riskier

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Long-Run-Is-Lying-to-You
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/famaandfrenchthreefactormodel.asp

Have you considered factor investing if you are comfortable taking incremental risk for returns? There are so many idiosyncratic events that can effect a single stock (basically uncompensated risk), while statistically speaking 95% of portfolio returns can be explained through the factor model. You can also implement these strategies fairly cheaply by sticking to ETFs and rebalancing yourself.

There is so much academic and analytical support that points to one of a few combinations of diversified portfolios being the most optimal investment strategy for the average investor that I tend to believe the question around which types of assets to invest in is essentially resolved. The bigger questions should be more about what exactly does that FIRE aspiration look like, what is a realistic time horizon for that given expected returns, how do you tax plan in the most optimal way, what is your failsafe, etc.

hm, i'll have to look at these articles later, too.


i do the same thing as knickabocker. while i do hold it mostly in Vanguard, ARK, and SPDR ETFs, i also put into the higher holdings of them, like apple, bank of america, america express, coke, and kraft (i pretty much followed Buffet's top holdings).