Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[payitforward]

moved this to kuzma thread....

I
As to how Kuzma became "an elite rebounder," sometimes I wonder who goes for this stuff? As a rookie, Kuzma averaged 8.1 boards per 40 minutes. This last year, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.

That's right! He has raised his rebounding by 1/2 a board every 40 minutes! Whoa!

In fairness, Lakers' overall rebounding dropped a bit in those years. Thinking of it that way you could credit him with a little bigger jump. Anyway... better is better.

As well, Kuzma's rebounding dropped his 2d & esp. his 3d year. Hence, if you just look at the change from his year 3 to 4, the increase is a bit more significant. Especially the increase in offensive rebounding.

Okay, me I go for this stuff. Sure, we can say 'elite' is overstating it. However, while his rebounding dropped off with the addition of LeBJ and then AD, he managed to recover and then some. This despite being posted to the SF position, even as a perimeter player he managed to increase his rebounding significantly, especially in Offensive boards. Even while LeBJ and AD siphoned heavy minutes in the front court. Hell they added monster rebounder Andre Drummond, who averaged 15 boards per 40min. And Montrezl Harrell (10/40).

So, okay elite maybe not, but Kuz was among the better rebounders playing out of the SF spot, especially in offensive boards work. With his increased effort and focus on this skill it seems to be he could post better numbers in the front court, even better perhaps than the bigger stronger Hachimura, who posted 6 boards per 40 minutes, ostensibly playing PF.

Well, it was only the word "elite" that prompted my reaction. The points you make are good ones.

Kuzma played PF his first two years. His productivity fell way off his 3d year when he was more or less exclusively a 3. The very good news is that he recovered & more, improved significantly, last season. That's the right trajectory. Especially since SF is where he should be playing. Or, simply say that he should be, mostly, a perimeter player on offense.

Thing is, if you look at what's changed for him over those 4 years -- what made him drop off his 2d & 3d years & made him more productive his 4th year -- it really is the improvement in his rebounding. Despite my critical comment above.

In fact, it's almost exclusively his improvement in offensive rebounding!

So, if you think of Kuzma as a 4, his defensive rebounding is a little above average, & his offensive rebounding is way above average. But, if you think of him as a 3, his defensive rebounding is way above average, & his offensive rebounding is absolutely tremendous.

Best comparison? Otto Porter -- only not nearly as good as Otto's 2 best years. But, I think that's the idea for Kuzma. Be like good Otto Porter.

[gambitx777]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up
You play holiday mostly to sup in for D and another shooter and you spot in Nato, early on who ever is jelling better will ear the solid rotation spot honors.
You really wanna try to cut back on beals minutes, so KCP is going to be essential. Cuz we are think on 2 guard back ups unless we find space for honestly and even then !
If Rui starts are the 3 which he definitely can defensivly, KCP get spot minutes at the 3 and you let bertans and Kispert fight it out for those. I'd bertans doesn't get traded.
The backing up Kuz bertans and deni will fight it out for this minutes with with trz and Rui iflinf in gaps when needed.
The Trez starts the year as the primary back up till Bryant is full tilt then you mash the dream commit of gafford and Bryant.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up

I don't hate it. Especially if Rui's 3pt shooting from the post season was reliable and not a fluke hot-streak. If Rui hits threes then the middle opens up. He still needs to learn to play on the interior, or at least set screens, and make cuts, etc. But he and Kuz both play good 1v1 defense, so that's a solid balanced team on both ends.

I prefer to pair Gafford with Bertans since Bertans gives Gafford more room to operate and Gafford can cover for any one who blows past Bertans on the outside. And Gafford plays short minutes since he fouls a bit and plays high energy.

Actually I can see your line being effective with one tweak:

Dwiddie --dribble drive
Beal --ditto, shots off Bryant screens
Kuz -- like beal catch and shoot 3's off motion, putbacks off oboards, defense outside
Rui -- defense marking biggest threat
Bryant -- hard screens and picks, roll to the basket. to finish, enough outside shooting that he can't be left wide open, on defense leave him in drop coverage while Rui/Kuz slow opponents.

That said I would wish we had a smart passing/screening Big at the PF to really make that line work. Which I guess puts me back at subbing Deni in and Rui out. Though Kuz can make a savvy pass at times. Dunno. I don't hate the 2nd line that gives:

Holiday -- 3 and D, smart team play, sets screens from the guard positions
KCP -- 3&D, smart, catch and shoot off screens
Bertans -- catch and shoot off screens
Deni --screening pick setting passer
Gafford --high energy defense, rebounding

I'd like it better if Deni did develop a shot from pick and pop, and could reliably penetrate and finish in the paint.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up
You play holiday mostly to sup in for D and another shooter and you spot in Nato, early on who ever is jelling better will ear the solid rotation spot honors.
You really wanna try to cut back on beals minutes, so KCP is going to be essential. Cuz we are think on 2 guard back ups unless we find space for honestly and even then !
If Rui starts are the 3 which he definitely can defensivly, KCP get spot minutes at the 3 and you let bertans and Kispert fight it out for those. I'd bertans doesn't get traded.
The backing up Kuz bertans and deni will fight it out for this minutes with with trz and Rui iflinf in gaps when needed.
The Trez starts the year as the primary back up till Bryant is full tilt then you mash the dream commit of gafford and Bryant.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

This is my preferred starting lineup also. I like Rui & Kuz together as an interchangeable frontcourt, 2 forwards who can both rotate between the 3 & 4. Similarly Beal & Dinwiddie are pretty interchangeable in the backcourt. I like the idea of coming out with a lineup along with Gafford that sets the tone with size, athleticism and versatility. This group can run, defend, score, rebound.

From here you can sub KCP in for either of Rui or Kuz (depending on fouls or which one is off to a good start) as 1st off the bench for a spark in intensity & tempo. Then when Beal needs rest you slide KCP to the 2, and bring in Deni and/or Bertans and/or whoever came out earlier (Kuz/Rui), depending on matchups, fouls, rest, health, style of play or skillset needed.

For Gafford you can sub in Trez or Bryant depending on fouls, health, rest, matchups, etc. For Dinwiddie you sub in Holiday or Neto in the same fashion, plus Beal can run some point, Neto can get some pt at the 2, etc.

With this roster and depth we can pretty much constantly rotate in fresh legs to keep the tempo up and stay in attack mode throughout the game and play physical with no shortage of fouls to give.

[nate33]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up

I don't hate it. Especially if Rui's 3pt shooting from the post season was reliable and not a fluke hot-streak. If Rui hits threes then the middle opens up. He still needs to learn to play on the interior, or at least set screens, and make cuts, etc. But he and Kuz both play good 1v1 defense, so that's a solid balanced team on both ends.

I prefer to pair Gafford with Bertans since Bertans gives Gafford more room to operate and Gafford can cover for any one who blows past Bertans on the outside. And Gafford plays short minutes since he fouls a bit and plays high energy.

Actually I can see your line being effective with one tweak:

Dwiddie --dribble drive
Beal --ditto, shots off Bryant screens
Kuz -- like beal catch and shoot 3's off motion, putbacks off oboards, defense outside
Rui -- defense marking biggest threat
Bryant -- hard screens and picks, roll to the basket. to finish, enough outside shooting that he can't be left wide open, on defense leave him in drop coverage while Rui/Kuz slow opponents.

That said I would wish we had a smart passing/screening Big at the PF to really make that line work. Which I guess puts me back at subbing Deni in and Rui out. Though Kuz can make a savvy pass at times. Dunno. I don't hate the 2nd line that gives:

Holiday -- 3 and D, smart team play, sets screens from the guard positions
KCP -- 3&D, smart, catch and shoot off screens
Bertans -- catch and shoot off screens
Deni --screening pick setting passer
Gafford --high energy defense, rebounding

I'd like it better if Deni did develop a shot from pick and pop, and could reliably penetrate and finish in the paint.

I think the Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford is fine, and possibly a really good closing lineup, but I don't like starting that way because it incorporates our 4 best shot creators all in the same lineup. That leaves the 2nd unit to be full of dependent catch-and-shoot scorers without a defense bender to free them up for open looks and/or to be the emergency bailout shot creator when the shot clock winds down.

I think we are better off with Kuzma on the 2nd unit as a passable iso scorer when the offense breaks down. (I'd also try and stagger Beal and Dinwiddie as best as I could to keep one of them on the floor at all times.)

Furthermore, with at least 3 shot creators on the floor in the starting unit (Dinwiddie, Beal and Rui), we are better off with the 4th guy being an off-ball mover catch-and-shoot specialist rather than another guy who likes to go one-on-one with the ball. That guy can be either Bertans, KCP or Kispert; but utilizing Kuzma or Avdija in that role seems like a misuse of their skillset.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up

I don't hate it. Especially if Rui's 3pt shooting from the post season was reliable and not a fluke hot-streak. If Rui hits threes then the middle opens up. He still needs to learn to play on the interior, or at least set screens, and make cuts, etc. But he and Kuz both play good 1v1 defense, so that's a solid balanced team on both ends.

I prefer to pair Gafford with Bertans since Bertans gives Gafford more room to operate and Gafford can cover for any one who blows past Bertans on the outside. And Gafford plays short minutes since he fouls a bit and plays high energy.

Actually I can see your line being effective with one tweak:

Dwiddie --dribble drive
Beal --ditto, shots off Bryant screens
Kuz -- like beal catch and shoot 3's off motion, putbacks off oboards, defense outside
Rui -- defense marking biggest threat
Bryant -- hard screens and picks, roll to the basket. to finish, enough outside shooting that he can't be left wide open, on defense leave him in drop coverage while Rui/Kuz slow opponents.

That said I would wish we had a smart passing/screening Big at the PF to really make that line work. Which I guess puts me back at subbing Deni in and Rui out. Though Kuz can make a savvy pass at times. Dunno. I don't hate the 2nd line that gives:

Holiday -- 3 and D, smart team play, sets screens from the guard positions
KCP -- 3&D, smart, catch and shoot off screens
Bertans -- catch and shoot off screens
Deni --screening pick setting passer
Gafford --high energy defense, rebounding

I'd like it better if Deni did develop a shot from pick and pop, and could reliably penetrate and finish in the paint.

I think the Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford is fine, and possibly a really good closing lineup, but I don't like starting that way because it incorporates our 4 best shot creators all in the same lineup. That leaves the 2nd unit to be full of dependent catch-and-shoot scorers without a defense bender to free them up for open looks and/or to be the emergency bailout shot creator when the shot clock winds down.

I think we are better off with Kuzma on the 2nd unit as a passable iso scorer when the offense breaks down. (I'd also try and stagger Beal and Dinwiddie as best as I could to keep one of them on the floor at all times.)

Furthermore, with at least 3 shot creators on the floor in the starting unit (Dinwiddie, Beal and Rui), we are better off with the 4th guy being an off-ball mover catch-and-shoot specialist rather than another guy who likes to go one-on-one with the ball. That guy can be either Bertans, KCP or Kispert; but utilizing Kuzma or Avdija in that role seems like a misuse of their skillset.

I see what your saying, but I like starting with that 5 to set the tone defensively first off, but we get Beal, Rui, Kuz, Dimwiddie a chance to get in a rhythm offensively and see if they are hitting their shots. You already got KCP top guy off the bench who is a streaky shooter, and Deni not much of a shooter.

But this leaves you with Bertans and Kispert in your back pocket to bring in if shots aren't falling. But if they are falling from the likes of Rui, Beal, Dimwiddie, Kuz, Bryant, Deni, KCP... you may not need Bertans or Kispert, and you can stay with your length and defense and versatility all these others provide... Bertans and Kispert can be more of a break glass in case of emergency for the stretches when shots aren't falling.

[doclinkin]

Last year's Vegas season predictions were:

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

It had me thinking, how do we match up in the East now?. Comparing starter for starter may be tricky given that we have no idea who our starters may be, but best guess, who do we stack up against. Then deeper into the roster, which of the teams in the East which squads have equivalent/better depth?

[Kanyewest]

OOf. I just noticed Vegas is very skeptical of the Wizards:

This looks like last year's over unders.

[doclinkin]

OOf. I just noticed Vegas is very skeptical of the Wizards:

This looks like last year's over unders.

Yeah that makes sense. Shoot you could really make money if you could jump back to last year with this information. I will edit for the sense of what I was trying to say.

[Ruzious]

OOf. I just noticed Vegas is very skeptical of the Wizards:

Washington Wizards, 9th seed: 32.5

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

Oh man, if I were a betting man I would jump on the over of the Knicks.

I'm not sure why the Celtics are so highly ranked. Coaching kept them at the top of the leaderboard. I'm sure Udoka is a fine coach, but there may be an adjustment period, either way it is tough to be better than the guy they bumped up to GM.

For comparison sake it's hard to match up starter for starter given that we have no idea who our starters may be. But of the teams in the East which squads have better depth than the Wiz?

Wow, Vegas is vastly underrating the East. Only 1 team is going to even challenge for 50 wins? Brooklyn should be right up there with Milwaukee at over 50 wins, and Philly should be around 50. Agree with Doc that Boston should be lower. Atlanta - only 36.5? NY only 22.5? Wow. Detroit should be worst in the East - Cleveland's easily better than Detr.

Edit: Nevermind - that's gotta be last year's numbers.

[payitforward]

Last year's Vegas season predictions were:

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

...

Not far off on us. We won 34 games & were tied for 8th/9th at the end of the regular season.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

OOf. I just noticed Vegas is very skeptical of the Wizards:

Washington Wizards, 9th seed: 32.5

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

Oh man, if I were a betting man I would jump on the over of the Knicks.

I'm not sure why the Celtics are so highly ranked. Coaching kept them at the top of the leaderboard. I'm sure Udoka is a fine coach, but there may be an adjustment period, either way it is tough to be better than the guy they bumped up to GM.

For comparison sake it's hard to match up starter for starter given that we have no idea who our starters may be. But of the teams in the East which squads have better depth than the Wiz?

Wow, Vegas is vastly underrating the East. Only 1 team is going to even challenge for 50 wins? Brooklyn should be right up there with Milwaukee at over 50 wins, and Philly should be around 50. Agree with Doc that Boston should be lower. Atlanta - only 36.5? NY only 22.5? Wow. Detroit should be worst in the East - Cleveland's easily better than Detr.

Edit: Nevermind - that's gotta be last year's numbers.

I had to check back to look if they were playing a full 82 games based on those numbers. Not one team in the east is predicted to comfortably win 50 games? The seems really odd.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would honestly consider
Dinwidie / Beal / Rui / Kuz / Gafford as out starting line up
You play holiday mostly to sup in for D and another shooter and you spot in Nato, early on who ever is jelling better will ear the solid rotation spot honors.
You really wanna try to cut back on beals minutes, so KCP is going to be essential. Cuz we are think on 2 guard back ups unless we find space for honestly and even then !
If Rui starts are the 3 which he definitely can defensivly, KCP get spot minutes at the 3 and you let bertans and Kispert fight it out for those. I'd bertans doesn't get traded.
The backing up Kuz bertans and deni will fight it out for this minutes with with trz and Rui iflinf in gaps when needed.
The Trez starts the year as the primary back up till Bryant is full tilt then you mash the dream commit of gafford and Bryant.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

This is my preferred starting lineup also. I like Rui & Kuz together as an interchangeable frontcourt, 2 forwards who can both rotate between the 3 & 4. Similarly Beal & Dinwiddie are pretty interchangeable in the backcourt. I like the idea of coming out with a lineup along with Gafford that sets the tone with size, athleticism and versatility. This group can run, defend, score, rebound.

From here you can sub KCP in for either of Rui or Kuz (depending on fouls or which one is off to a good start) as 1st off the bench for a spark in intensity & tempo. Then when Beal needs rest you slide KCP to the 2, and bring in Deni and/or Bertans and/or whoever came out earlier (Kuz/Rui), depending on matchups, fouls, rest, health, style of play or skillset needed.

For Gafford you can sub in Trez or Bryant depending on fouls, health, rest, matchups, etc. For Dinwiddie you sub in Holiday or Neto in the same fashion, plus Beal can run some point, Neto can get some pt at the 2, etc.

With this roster and depth we can pretty much constantly rotate in fresh legs to keep the tempo up and stay in attack mode throughout the game and play physical with no shortage of fouls to give.

I like everything you said but I believe you are selling Montrezl Harrell too short.

I like Kuz,Trez, Thomas w others off the bench

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Last year's Vegas season predictions were:

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

It had me thinking, how do we match up in the East now?. Comparing starter for starter may be tricky given that we have no idea who our starters may be, but best guess, who do we stack up against. Then deeper into the roster, which of the teams in the East which squads have equivalent/better depth?

I'm going to go with 42 wins

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

[closg00]

Last year's Vegas season predictions were:

1. Milwaukee Bucks 49.5
2. Boston Celtics 45.5
3. Brooklyn Nets 45.5
4. Philadelphia 76ers 45.5
5. Miami Heat 44.5
6. Toronto Raptors 41.5
7. Indiana Pacers 39.5
8. Atlanta Hawks 36.5
9. Washington Wizards 32.5
10. Orlando Magic 31.5
11. Chicago Bulls 30.5
12. Charlotte Hornets 25.5
13. Detroit Pistons 23.5
14. New York Knicks 22.5
15. Cleveland Cavaliers 22.5

It had me thinking, how do we match up in the East now?. Comparing starter for starter may be tricky given that we have no idea who our starters may be, but best guess, who do we stack up against. Then deeper into the roster, which of the teams in the East which squads have equivalent/better depth?

I was wondering when the Eastern Ranking thread was going to show-up, someone start one

[payitforward]

32.5 wins last year = 37 wins in an 82 game season. But we won 34 games, which equals 38.72 wins in an 82 game season.

Hence, 39 wins to equal last year. So, predicting 42 wins is a meaningful improvement, but not so big a jump as to be out of the question.

[80sballboy]

Bleacher Report has them for 41 wins. Caesar's is at 33.5
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2947391-every-nba-teams-win-loss-predictions-after-full-2021-22-schedule-release
https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/8/21/22635289/oddsmakers-nba-win-totals-atlanta-hawks-betting-bet-las-vegas-odds-sportsbook

[verbal8]

Bleacher Report has them for 41 wins. Caesar's is at 33.5
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2947391-every-nba-teams-win-loss-predictions-after-full-2021-22-schedule-release
https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/8/21/22635289/oddsmakers-nba-win-totals-atlanta-hawks-betting-bet-las-vegas-odds-sportsbook

I think Caesars might be pessimistic about the Wizards. Hard to see them being as bad as the T-wolves.