Trade Talk (Part Eight)

[gandlogo]

I love the optimism, but there's also this:

Read on Twitter

That really meany nothing except I'll get rich taking the high odds against. Sports books are just trying to lay off money. The poorly informed public don't think we have a chance. That's why the odds are what they are.

I've learned the gambler's mantra 'never bet on your own team' the hard way.

I’m a sucker the other way and always try to get $20 on the Wolves over the season number. It’s my version of Puddy supporting the team - sans face paint. Recently the best I’ve done was a COVID induced push. Pandemic silver lining, I guess. What are people’s thoughts on Ben Simmons?

[jpatrick]

Last thing I wanted to mention.

A lot of people, mostly outside of Minnesota, are saying that MIN needs to make the playoffs, or KAT will ask out. I don’t think that’s true. I think MIN needs to look like it’s trending for the playoffs by season’s end. I think it’s most likely going to happen too, due to the advancements this season from

1. Ant will get better
2. Jaden will get better
3. Beasley won’t be hurt
4. KAT and DLo get to play together
5. Chris Finch will get a whole season, and a chance this off-season to institute his system.

I think our future is going to look brighter than it has in a long time, and KAT will want to be a part of that.

——-

Finally, I think some people put too much stress on the “timeline” thing. One of the advantages to the system we have now is that we have two max players, and two other core pieces that just started rookie deals. Hopefully they improve quickly, but the four players will be affordable as a group until Ant and Jaden get paid.

So true. Well said.

We have enough talent to easily make the playoffs.

I love the optimism, but there's also this:

Read on Twitter

Every year I think the Vegas number is crazy low and almost every year the Wolves find a way to go under it. Who thought two years ago we’d have the worst record in the league? And last year have the worst record with about six weeks left in the season. This might be the year we break the trend, but we need at least one more piece (PF) to have any chance at 500 IMO.

[Krapinsky]

Watch on YouTube

The stat about touches and time per touch was really interesting to me. This video is 4 years old, but I can't imagine things changed that much.

Great vid. Thanks. To try to pretend that Jaden McDaniels is anywhere near him as a player just makes me shake my head.

Just stop that! NOBODY is comparing McD today to Simmons today. It's all about McD 2-3 years from now. Look at Kris Middleton or Giannis first year. Look at Scottie Pippen 1st year. By stats alone none of them were special either their 1st year. I could be wrong but my bet is McD is a better overall player than Ben in 2-3 years.

Yes, we all know Simmons can pass the ball and drive to the basket. We get that. I love that about him. But how does that work in the Finch scheme? There is only one ball. I suppose Kat, Ant and Dlo are just going to stand around and wait for his highness to get them the ball? Where are the videos showing Simmons rebounding like a demon inside and making bunny's? Which is what we really need him to do for us.

There is only one basketball. How much will Simmons diminish Kat, Ant and Dlo? Simmons has to play off the ball here. Those guys don't need to be setup with a pretty no look pass.

I was the biggest Simmons fan on his draft night. I wish I loved the idea of acquiring him. I do, and I don't. I shouldn't have so many negatives to consider. Look at all the people here who have serious reservations about him. Wouldn't it be nice to have unanimous yeses to getting him?

I will say this he might be invaluable running with the 2nd unit. Don't laugh. No, I'm not saying he only play with the 2nd unit. He'd make all those guys better.

A few things jumped out to me here and my sense is maybe you haven't seen Simmons play too much. He's actually very effective playing off the ball and is a low usage point guard. Indeed, his usage rate as compared to his assist rate compares to few players in modern NBA history. Those players are Lowry, 27 year old Lawson, Kidd, Rondo, Calderon. His usage rate as compared to his PER is elite among players in the NBA. (i.e. attempting to measuring the largest impact compared to how often he uses a possession.)

Moreover, among Guards and Forwards last year he had the 13th highest offensive rebounds per game and 10th highest total rebounds on average. That in the entire NBA while sharing rebounding opportunities with Harris and Embiid. The year before Simmons was 4th in the league in offensive rebounds and 8th in total rebounds among all guards and forwards. Again, that's with sharing opportunities with Embiid and Harris.

[shrink]

Last thing I wanted to mention.

A lot of people, mostly outside of Minnesota, are saying that MIN needs to make the playoffs, or KAT will ask out. I don’t think that’s true. I think MIN needs to look like it’s trending for the playoffs by season’s end. I think it’s most likely going to happen too, due to the advancements this season from

1. Ant will get better
2. Jaden will get better
3. Beasley won’t be hurt
4. KAT and DLo get to play together
5. Chris Finch will get a whole season, and a chance this off-season to institute his system.

I think our future is going to look brighter than it has in a long time, and KAT will want to be a part of that.

——-

Finally, I think some people put too much stress on the “timeline” thing. One of the advantages to the system we have now is that we have two max players, and two other core pieces that just started rookie deals. Hopefully they improve quickly, but the four players will be affordable as a group until Ant and Jaden get paid.

So true. Well said.

We have enough talent to easily make the playoffs.

I love the optimism, but there's also this:

Read on Twitter

True. I think I remember Dane saying that MIN hasn’t gotten enough wins to meet the Vegas odds in 13 of the last 17 years?

Anyway, I’d love to make the playoffs, but what I’m saying is that even if we don’t, we are going to look like a very promising playoff team the following season, and I think KAT is going to want to be in on that,

[Nick K]

I think we can debate fit all day with Simmons but if the team trades for Simmons than that tells you you need to know -- Finch himself signed off on getting Simmons and thinks he will be a good fit in his system. Indeed, I think we can probably assume that's the case if you believe the Wolves' reported interest in Simmons is real at all.

I finally agree with you Krapinsky. I conceed, they know better than I. I think?

[Nick K]

I love the optimism, but there's also this:

Read on Twitter

That really meany nothing except I'll get rich taking the high odds against. Sports books are just trying to lay off money. The poorly informed public don't think we have a chance. That's why the odds are what they are.

I've learned the gambler's mantra 'never bet on your own team' the hard way.

Usually that's right but I only bet when I feel I have a strong non-emotional advantage. That is now. We have the makings of a very strong team with our talent and Finch.

We just might be the surprise team of the league. Just wait and see.

[Nick K]

Great vid. Thanks. To try to pretend that Jaden McDaniels is anywhere near him as a player just makes me shake my head.

Just stop that! NOBODY is comparing McD today to Simmons today. It's all about McD 2-3 years from now. Look at Kris Middleton or Giannis first year. Look at Scottie Pippen 1st year. By stats alone none of them were special either their 1st year. I could be wrong but my bet is McD is a better overall player than Ben in 2-3 years.

Yes, we all know Simmons can pass the ball and drive to the basket. We get that. I love that about him. But how does that work in the Finch scheme? There is only one ball. I suppose Kat, Ant and Dlo are just going to stand around and wait for his highness to get them the ball? Where are the videos showing Simmons rebounding like a demon inside and making bunny's? Which is what we really need him to do for us.

There is only one basketball. How much will Simmons diminish Kat, Ant and Dlo? Simmons has to play off the ball here. Those guys don't need to be setup with a pretty no look pass.

I was the biggest Simmons fan on his draft night. I wish I loved the idea of acquiring him. I do, and I don't. I shouldn't have so many negatives to consider. Look at all the people here who have serious reservations about him. Wouldn't it be nice to have unanimous yeses to getting him?

I will say this he might be invaluable running with the 2nd unit. Don't laugh. No, I'm not saying he only play with the 2nd unit. He'd make all those guys better.

A few things jumped out to me here and my sense is maybe you haven't seen Simmons play too much. He's actually very effective playing off the ball and is a low usage point guard. Indeed, his usage rate as compared to his assist rate compares to few players in modern NBA history. Those players are Lowry, 27 year old Lawson, Kidd, Rondo, Calderon. His usage rate as compared to his PER is elite among players in the NBA. (i.e. attempting to measuring the largest impact compared to how often he uses a possession.)

Moreover, among Guards and Forwards last year he had the 13th highest offensive rebounds per game and 10th highest total rebounds on average. That in the entire NBA while sharing rebounding opportunities with Harris and Embiid. The year before Simmons was 4th in the league in offensive rebounds and 8th in total rebounds among all guards and forwards. Again, that's with sharing opportunities with Embiid and Harris.

That's really reassuring solid info to have. We are desperate to get strong rebounding on both ends. Is he our PF of the future?

[Nick K]

So true. Well said.

We have enough talent to easily make the playoffs.

I love the optimism, but there's also this:

Read on Twitter

Every year I think the Vegas number is crazy low and almost every year the Wolves find a way to go under it. Who thought two years ago we’d have the worst record in the league? And last year have the worst record with about six weeks left in the season. This might be the year we break the trend, but we need at least one more piece (PF) to have any chance at 500 IMO.

Well, when you're playing without yor 3 best players most of the year with a bad coach most of that time, it's easy to see why we're bad.

When healthy we finished 11-10, 1 game over 500 to finish the year. That tells me we can do that and more next year. We will be much better this coming year if healthy.

[Krapinsky]

That really meany nothing except I'll get rich taking the high odds against. Sports books are just trying to lay off money. The poorly informed public don't think we have a chance. That's why the odds are what they are.

I've learned the gambler's mantra 'never bet on your own team' the hard way.

Usually that's right but I only bet when I feel I have a strong non-emotional advantage. That is now. We have the makings of a very strong team with our talent and Finch.

We just might be the surprise team of the league. Just wait and see.

I’m with you. I like our odds to finish above Memphis, Sac, and LAC in the West. I also wouldn’t rule out sneaking by Dallas and NO. I see a realistic path to the 7 or 8 seed, even though it might mean a playoff sweep.

Where I vastly differ from others in terms of optimism is I see a path to home court advantage with a Simmons trade. I think the time to strike in the West is the next 1-4 years. Path to finals will surely be through EAST (Nets, Bucks, potentially Boston) but West will be wide open for taking. Lebron and Paul probably have one more solid year. Kawhi and George will be a little long in the tooth, as will GSW. Jazz and Nuggets aren’t scaring anyone. Luka can’t do it all himself. Blazers days are numbered.

D-Lo/Towns will be hitting their primes together. Add a player of Simmons caliber peaking at the same time, a long with the upward talent of Edwards, and we would arguably have the top 1-4 in the entire West over next few years.

[Calinks]

As we stand now, if healthy I think we are about .500. Maybe a little higher. We get a good PF in here and I think we can win 45-52 games. Team should take a step up, someone should take a leap and I don't see anyone falling off. We also cut a lot of dead weight in Culver and Juancho. Add a full camp and season under Finch and I think we see improvement.

[theGreatRC]

I'm always an optimist.

Year 2 Ant, KAT being in the best shape of his life + a healthy roster...i'm calling top 5 West team idc

[Dewey]

I'm always an optimist.

Year 2 Ant, KAT being in the best shape of his life + a healthy roster...i'm calling top 5 West team idc

I normally take this path of optimism as well, but it has backfired often to the point of promoting insanity. Nonetheless, i believe it is in the DNA to be an optimist or pessimist - therefore - I cannot help being an optimist.

Finch works for me … I have a different vibe with him as a coach thus far and sense he’s willing and able to push the right buttons, understands his roster, can make adjustments, and manage games. He and Rosas still have to fill out this roster, and I believe we will sign a veteran PF at a bare minimum. Generally speaking, the Wolves are still hanging in the weeds IMO, and like it or not, I think they are continuing to work on Simmons. With Finch involved, I have some confidence he would pull Rosas away if he didn’t think it was a worthwhile move.

[Biff Cooper]

I think we can debate fit all day with Simmons but if the team trades for Simmons than that tells you you need to know -- Finch himself signed off on getting Simmons and thinks he will be a good fit in his system. Indeed, I think we can probably assume that's the case if you believe the Wolves' reported interest in Simmons is real at all.

I finally agree with you Krapinsky. I conceed, they know better than I. I think?

I have stayed away from the Simmons conversation. Mostly because it feels unlikely we are able to pull off a deal, but also because this is pretty much where I am. It feels like we finally have a good coach who really understands both people and basketball. If he sees a great fit for Simmons and his obvious talents, then I am willing to give him (and Rosas) the leeway to try and make it happen with the appropriate amount of assets.

[IceManBK1]

Anyway we can get involved and get Brandon Clarke or Larry nance Jr?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[jpatrick]

Anyway we can get involved and get Brandon Clarke or Larry nance Jr?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I’m not sure how serious I’d take that report. It lost me when it said if the Cavs included a second first round pick, they might be able to pry Steven Adams away from the Griz. The same Adams that is a negative asset. And the same Cavs that just gave one center 100m (Allen) and drafted another with the third pick (Mobley).

If we miss out on bigger targets, I do think Rosas will move down the list and try to get a Nance type.

[winforlose]

Anyway we can get involved and get Brandon Clarke or Larry nance Jr?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I’m not sure how serious I’d take that report. It lost me when it said if the Cavs included a second first round pick, they might be able to pry Steven Adams away from the Griz. The same Adams that is a negative asset. And the same Cavs that just gave one center 100m (Allen) and drafted another with the third pick (Mobley).

If we miss out on bigger targets, I do think Rosas will move down the list and try to get a Nance type.

As someone who suggested a three way trade to bring Nance here and send Brooks to the Cavs I see the potential. I found this https://www.google.com/webhp?client=firefox-b-1-m&channel=ts link to Cavs SB nation so obviously they think it is credible enough to report. The questions are 1, is Larry Nance Jr worth Vando and a lottery protected first, 2, would that package be enough to get Brooks to the Cavs, and 3, would the money work?

[IceManBK1]

Read on Twitter

?s=20
Wish we could have renegotiate the deal to include Brandon Clarke.. For Layman lol.

[shrink]

Read on Twitter

.

I would imagine this reduces our chance of getting Ben Simmons down from 20% to 10%, making matching salary difficult, or at least delayed.

But who knows? It feels like we haven’t heard the last of this soap opera, and as camp grows closer and closer for Philly, it feels this drama is going to reach it’s peak soon.

[Klomp]

I would imagine this reduces our chance of getting Ben Simmons down from 20% to 10%, making matching salary difficult, or at least delayed.

But who knows? It feels like we haven’t heard the last of this soap opera, and as camp grows closer and closer for Philly, it feels this drama is going to reach it’s peak soon.

I doubt any Simmons trade happens much before Oct. 1, which is when HoopsHype is reporting that Beverley is able to be aggregated. Besides, I really think we actually want to keep Pat here, even if we want to make a Simmons trade.

Imagine the defensive jump we could see just by adding Beverley and Simmons in the same offseason.

[jpatrick]

I would imagine this reduces our chance of getting Ben Simmons down from 20% to 10%, making matching salary difficult, or at least delayed.

But who knows? It feels like we haven’t heard the last of this soap opera, and as camp grows closer and closer for Philly, it feels this drama is going to reach it’s peak soon.

I doubt any Simmons trade happens much before Oct. 1, which is when HoopsHype is reporting that Beverley is able to be aggregated. Besides, I really think we actually want to keep Pat here, even if we want to make a Simmons trade.

Imagine the defensive jump we could see just by adding Beverley and Simmons in the same offseason.

The lineups with Bev, McDaniels, and Simmons in it could lock down some teams. I also think getting plus defender vets like Bev and Simmons might do wonders for Ant’s defensive IQ.