SUPERBALLMAN wrote:
Yeah, I think if anyone is the odd man out it's Bertans.
I see Rui and Kuzma starting together. KCP and Deni are the top guys off the bench. I'm thinking Wes Jr is going to value versatility and defense.
Bertans (and Kispert) should only see the floor when we need to inject some 3 point shooters into the offense. If we hit a stretch were guys are looking lifeless and legless, spacing is bad, shots aren't falling, turnovers are racking up.... Inject Bertans to jump start the offense. That should be his only role this season, other wise getting pt in situations of players out with illness, injury, fouls, rest, suspension, etc.
But if all cylinders are hitting Bertans should not get off the bench.
Maybe. But year after year Bertans is worth the most in terms of +/- over any other player. The team scores more efficiently when he is on the court. If you look at various charts of player 'gravity' Bertans affects the court more than any other player on the team year after year.
https://chart-studio.plotly.com/~anpatt7/43//#/(the chart is a diagram of a basketball court. Notice the red spikes all around the perimeter for Davis. These are places where the defense was forced to load up chasing after that player. It easier to see if you mouse the chart up so you are looking at it from underneath).
Davis warps the floor to send the defense to the perimeter. When he is hitting 3pt shots, we win. Not because of the 3pt shots solely, but because opponents send their Bigs chasing after the 6'10" guy who is running guard patterns. And their guards have to help trap and mark him to slow him down. In a motion offense this is what you want: to steer the opponents to a weak arrangement so you can get open shots and high percentage shots. Bertans is the queen on a chess board, a danger from way across the board whose mobility (movement and quick release) forces you to track them from far away.
We added Dinwiddie to Bradley Beal. These are two players whose best damage has been done attacking the lanes and racking fouls on opponents, more so than their ranged shooting. Dinwiddie in particular has a suspect and streaky outside jumper. He will need room to operate on the interior. Similar to Westbrook, though he does use his team better to set himself up to penetrate. He is an excellent ballhandling guard for a motion offense. A good fit. It'd be nice if his standalone jumper was clean and pure, but we don't need it. Beal does have good gravity on the outside: if you leave him alone he will hit an open 3. You do have to mark him out there. If you do, he misses that shot. (By contrast to Bertans who hits shots both guarded and not because of his height and quick release). When you do chase Beal on the perimeter he is excellent at a quick change of direction to attack the lane. He hasn't gotten many open looks on the outside in recent years, but does stay in motion to work for them. It takes a solid team scheme to slow him down and make him take a less efficient shot. I suspect Wes will spring him free.
One of the ways to spring him free, and for him to be guarded by only one player, has been for teams to panic when Bertans heats up. As we saw against Wes' defense in Denver, Bertans hitting his career high 9 threes cleared the paint of almost all interior defenders. He forces teams to change their personnel to adjust. On offense he is a dangerous weapon. On defense, eh, yeah, but we still have managed a middling defense when he is on the court.
I'm the guy banging the draft threads looking for defensive standouts that can be stolen cheap, defense matters to me. But Bertans effect is undeniable. The numbers are there, he helps other players score more efficiently. Last year the only player that had a more pronounced +/- effect was Daniel Gafford. Gafford smooths out the problem that is Bertans and makes him more deadly by adding a mobile interior threat with aerial passing lanes.
Bertans is tough to draw line-ups for because he is a perimeter player who is sketched into a traditional frontcourt line-up, and his defense is not great either inside or outside. He is a smart team defender (which shows up in FIBA play though this team hasn't played great team defense) but has a high center of gravity and is not outstandingly athletic. If you play him, you need strong defenders behind him, since teams will switch to him on the perimeter. It would help to have good perimeter defenders elsewhere so the forced switch is predictable.
In Gafford, we picked up that strong defender as a mistake eraser. It is difficult to replicate with other players on the roster (though Kuzma looks like we get pretty close) but the synergy between Bertans and Gafford looks mighty. A line with DWiddie, Beal, Bertans, Gafford, and ANY perimeter defender who screens and passes well OR can hit a jumper (Kuzma, KCP, Rui when he is hitting 3's -- maybe Deni for the screener who passes) looks like you can dissect opposing teams with the outside inside threats.
Last year he was out of shape. COVID and lack of access to gyms and trainers. This year he is coming in off of National team qualifying play. He is a smart player who knows how to work in a motion offense. He eviscerated Wes' defense last year. I fully expect Unseld will find a use for him, early and as a go-to weapon in the offensive arsenal.
The Pels probably don't do it, but it doesn't hurt to ask. Even better imo would be to find a trade that has us trade 2 or 3 players in exchange for a better player.
