Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[doclinkin]

Messing around with the gravity charts.

Jeez. Montrezl Harrel in his 6MOY role had insane gravity at the rim of -40.
(average NBA player is 0, Davis cited earlier was -12 from the outside in the same year, -10 and under is elite gravity).

Beal's chart last year surprised me, his gravity at the rim and his two favorite spots on the left 3 pt range above the elbow extended were about a -5 each, not earth shattering but balanced inside and out.

Spencer Dinwiddie at the rim was a -20.

In his last healthy year Bryant was a -14 at the rim.

Aaron Holiday at the rim the year before last was -6, about the same as Beal at the basket.

Kuzma was balanced outside and in, but defenses were not loading up on him. -3 at best in any spot.

KCP was -5 in the wings.

Deni Avdija made me laugh. He had a positive gravity at the rim. Nobody worried about his finishing on the interior. Go ahead try it kid. LOL.

Garrison Mathews had a -4 from his favorite spot on the left.

[gambitx777]

Did they increase the number of 2 way deals you can have?

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

Bleacher Report has them for 41 wins. Caesar's is at 33.5
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2947391-every-nba-teams-win-loss-predictions-after-full-2021-22-schedule-release
https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/8/21/22635289/oddsmakers-nba-win-totals-atlanta-hawks-betting-bet-las-vegas-odds-sportsbook

IHow we get 41 wins with this personnel and no trades:
(Parentheticals are anything that could help carry us to more than .500 ball: 41+).

Dinwiddie: healthy, has good creative synergy with Wes, beginning to evolve as a PG to use his teammates as allies. Secure in his starters status doesn't need to call his own number first except in late game and takeover situations. Still learning in the role. (+ Develops quickly, stays healthy).

Beal: usual steady self. Numbers may drop a little due to sharing the ball more. ("+" would be if outside shooters mean his efficiency improves; if plays developed to screen and free for him mean his that his 3FG returns).

Kuzma: Contends for the starting spot, has occasional breakout nights. Motion offense fits exactly what he likes to do best. ("+" = Kuzma develops consistency in those breakouts. Develops chemistry with guards. Secondary Playmaking. Synergy with one other key player).

KCP solid, 2nd unit steadiness, useful sub at both 2 & 3, proves his worth as a go-get-him defender. (+ takes a leadership role as one of the veterans, friendship with Beal adds on court chemistry, motion offense sets him up not to simply stand in the wings and wait for a shot, but backdoor cuts, screen and pop, etc.).

Hachimura: Gets the ball primarily when in scoring position, Wes develops his raw talent with sets that take advantage of it. Continued improvement on defensive assignments. Occasional hot streaks from 3 and as a face up player. Learning some by imitating Kuzma (attacking close-outs) Harrell (pick and roll play). (+ Dedicates himself to rebounding with the same enthusiasm and lack of fear as he has for scoring; adds anything to his interior game, a finishing move, improved team defense).

Harrell: 2nd line Center to start the year, high energy, feasts on slower centers, but can't match up on the monsters. (+ Outside shooting Bigs allow the team to play a taller version of Small Ball. Harrell also feasts on smaller defenders out of the pick and roll, develops chemistry with one or more of the guards).

Gafford: Starting center. Still foul prone but improving. Better stamina. Remains healthy. Good chemistry with one or more of Dinwiddie/KCP/Kuzma/Holiday overcomes the loss of Westbrook feeding him (+ chemistry with ALL of the above, added strength and stamina, or any offense other than a dunk).

Holiday: useful defensive guard in spot minutes to slow down opponent attack. 3FG option in the back court and off motion. Develops a play or two with players like Bertans/Gafford/Harrell/KCP that proves reliable. (+ assist rate sees an uptick as he is no longer passing to a Big who likes to dribble (Sabonis) and has finishers both outside and in.)

Bryant: comes back strong, makes case for a starting role. Or part of a bench unit that devours back-ups (+ time off and rehab remade his legs: lateral speed, etc. His pick and pop and pick and roll potential is featured and shines. Develops chemistry with

Bertans: His usual self: scoring off motion, the in-shape version of Bertans. (+ Wes showcases him in a motion offense).

Deni: Playmaking off the bench. His experience in a motion offense show him to be one of the better glue guys on the team: sets screens and picks, moves well off the ball to give passing angles, makes the hockey assists, makes smart transition plays. (+. All of that plus he adds any finishing move or interior play, develops his left hand).

Corey Kispert. Rook finds useful minutes in relief. Contends for a back-up role. (+ useful sub at 2 guard as well as 3, to bolster depth behind Beal. Fits in the same sets that Bertans runs).

Raul Neto Useful minutes in relief, as a 3fg sub, contending for back-up PG (+ Part of one of the deadlier 3FG corps in the league with shooters at any of 5 spots. Wes finds creative ways to confuse opponents with outside threats from all over

Anthony Gill Deep bench body, gives useful minutes when called on (+ his overseas experience and Virginia defense mindset prove useful when played, but more so help teach team Defense and movement offense concepts, in practice and when called to play).

G-league and sometimes practice with the team:

Isaiah Todd
Cassius Winston
Caleb Homesley

(+ would be anything more than that, any useful minutes at the NBA level, flashes of more; play solid winning ball at the lower level with good minutes and smart coaching; win the G-League championship).

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

Bleacher Report has them for 41 wins. Caesar's is at 33.5
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2947391-every-nba-teams-win-loss-predictions-after-full-2021-22-schedule-release
https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/8/21/22635289/oddsmakers-nba-win-totals-atlanta-hawks-betting-bet-las-vegas-odds-sportsbook

IHow we get 41 wins with this personnel and no trades:
(Parentheticals are anything that could help carry us to more than .500 ball: 41+).

Dinwiddie: healthy, has good creative synergy with Wes, beginning to evolve as a PG to use his teammates as allies. Secure in his starters status doesn't need to call his own number first except in late game and takeover situations. Still learning in the role. (+ Develops quickly, stays healthy).

Beal: usual steady self. Numbers may drop a little due to sharing the ball more. ("+" would be if outside shooters mean his efficiency improves; if plays developed to screen and free for him mean his that his 3FG returns).

Kuzma: Contends for the starting spot, has occasional breakout nights. Motion offense fits exactly what he likes to do best. ("+" = Kuzma develops consistency in those breakouts. Develops chemistry with guards. Secondary Playmaking. Synergy with one other key player).

KCP solid, 2nd unit steadiness, useful sub at both 2 & 3, proves his worth as a go-get-him defender. (+ takes a leadership role as one of the veterans, friendship with Beal adds on court chemistry, motion offense sets him up not to simply stand in the wings and wait for a shot, but backdoor cuts, screen and pop, etc.).

Hachimura: Gets the ball primarily when in scoring position, Wes develops his raw talent with sets that take advantage of it. Continued improvement on defensive assignments. Occasional hot streaks from 3 and as a face up player. Learning some by imitating Kuzma (attacking close-outs) Harrell (pick and roll play). (+ Dedicates himself to rebounding with the same enthusiasm and lack of fear as he has for scoring; adds anything to his interior game, a finishing move, improved team defense).

Harrell: 2nd line Center to start the year, high energy, feasts on slower centers, but can't match up on the monsters. (+ Outside shooting Bigs allow the team to play a taller version of Small Ball. Harrell also feasts on smaller defenders out of the pick and roll, develops chemistry with one or more of the guards).

Gafford: Starting center. Still foul prone but improving. Better stamina. Remains healthy. Good chemistry with one or more of Dinwiddie/KCP/Kuzma/Holiday overcomes the loss of Westbrook feeding him (+ chemistry with ALL of the above, added strength and stamina, or any offense other than a dunk).

Holiday: useful defensive guard in spot minutes to slow down opponent attack. 3FG option in the back court and off motion. Develops a play or two with players like Bertans/Gafford/Harrell/KCP that proves reliable. (+ assist rate sees an uptick as he is no longer passing to a Big who likes to dribble (Sabonis) and has finishers both outside and in.)

Bryant: comes back strong, makes case for a starting role. Or part of a bench unit that devours back-ups (+ time off and rehab remade his legs: lateral speed, etc. His pick and pop and pick and roll potential is featured and shines. Develops chemistry with

Bertans: His usual self: scoring off motion, the in-shape version of Bertans. (+ Wes showcases him in a motion offense).

Deni: Playmaking off the bench. His experience in a motion offense show him to be one of the better glue guys on the team: sets screens and picks, moves well off the ball to give passing angles, makes the hockey assists, makes smart transition plays. (+. All of that plus he adds any finishing move or interior play, develops his left hand).

Corey Kispert. Rook finds useful minutes in relief. Contends for a back-up role. (+ useful sub at 2 guard as well as 3, to bolster depth behind Beal. Fits in the same sets that Bertans runs).

Raul Neto Useful minutes in relief, as a 3fg sub, contending for back-up PG (+ Part of one of the deadlier 3FG corps in the league with shooters at any of 5 spots. Wes finds creative ways to confuse opponents with outside threats from all over

Anthony Gill Deep bench body, gives useful minutes when called on (+ his overseas experience and Virginia defense mindset prove useful when played, but more so help teach team Defense and movement offense concepts, in practice and when called to play).

G-league and sometimes practice with the team:

Isaiah Todd
Cassius Winston
Caleb Homesley

(+ would be anything more than that, any useful minutes at the NBA level, flashes of more; play solid winning ball at the lower level with good minutes and smart coaching; win the G-League championship).

To add to this - a big part of the "how" to get to 41 wins is Wes. Balanced rotations - demand defensive energy from all (including Beal). Gafford gives us 24 solid minutes of defense as a starter.

[nate33]

Thinking this through some more, is not a Wizards starting 5 of Dinwiddie, Beal, Bertans, Rui, Gafford very similar to the starting 5 of the Utah Jazz?

Dinwiddie = Conley: a very good pick-and-roll PG with a 3-point shot just good enough that teams can't go under screens.
Beal = Mitchell: an All-Star SG who can create shots off the dribble or play off ball
Bertans = Boganovic/Ingles: a deadly shooter with underrated off-ball instincts
Rui = Royce O'Neal: a 4th/5th option on offense and designated defender.
Gafford = Gobert: an elite lob threat and offensive rebounder

Interesting I was thinking:

Hughes: 6'5" ball handling attack guard, more combo than point guard, no particularly great inside shot.
Arenas: 6'4" outside inside scorer, tops in the league in points scored, forces fouls on opponents by driving the interior. COnserves energy on defense because he works hard at the other end.
Jamison: tweener forward with long range, no defense
Jared Jeffies: tweener forward with an incomplete game, thought of as a defensive specialist
Haywood: defensive interior center with no particular range but outsized effect on team defense

That team won 45 games, which would be like an 8-game improvement over our team last year. And our current team is much deeper than that Arenas/Hughes/Jamison team. So tack on maybe 3 more wins. 48-34. I'll take it.

[doclinkin]

Thinking this through some more, is not a Wizards starting 5 of Dinwiddie, Beal, Bertans, Rui, Gafford very similar to the starting 5 of the Utah Jazz?

Dinwiddie = Conley: a very good pick-and-roll PG with a 3-point shot just good enough that teams can't go under screens.
Beal = Mitchell: an All-Star SG who can create shots off the dribble or play off ball
Bertans = Boganovic/Ingles: a deadly shooter with underrated off-ball instincts
Rui = Royce O'Neal: a 4th/5th option on offense and designated defender.
Gafford = Gobert: an elite lob threat and offensive rebounder

Interesting I was thinking:

Hughes: 6'5" ball handling attack guard, more combo than point guard, no particularly great inside shot.
Arenas: 6'4" outside inside scorer, tops in the league in points scored, forces fouls on opponents by driving the interior. COnserves energy on defense because he works hard at the other end.
Jamison: tweener forward with long range, no defense
Jared Jeffies: tweener forward with an incomplete game, thought of as a defensive specialist
Haywood: defensive interior center with no particular range but outsized effect on team defense

That team won 45 games, which would be like an 8-game improvement over our team last year. And our current team is much deeper than that Arenas/Hughes/Jamison team. So tack on maybe 3 more wins. 48-34. I'll take it.

Deeper but Gil was incandescent and a game changer, you couldn't gameplan for his supernova moments.
And Jamison was more versatile on offense with steadier output.
And Haywood was a rock, when he wasn't fighting for play time with Etan, or fighting him for any other reason LOL.

But I'd take 45 games if we got it. That would be huge for a first year head coach with a new team assembled. I have doubts, the East is getting deep and dangerous. Still, the parallels made me grin.

[nate33]

Interesting I was thinking:

Hughes: 6'5" ball handling attack guard, more combo than point guard, no particularly great inside shot.
Arenas: 6'4" outside inside scorer, tops in the league in points scored, forces fouls on opponents by driving the interior. COnserves energy on defense because he works hard at the other end.
Jamison: tweener forward with long range, no defense
Jared Jeffies: tweener forward with an incomplete game, thought of as a defensive specialist
Haywood: defensive interior center with no particular range but outsized effect on team defense

That team won 45 games, which would be like an 8-game improvement over our team last year. And our current team is much deeper than that Arenas/Hughes/Jamison team. So tack on maybe 3 more wins. 48-34. I'll take it.

Deeper but Gil was incandescent and a game changer, you couldn't gameplan for his supernova moments.
And Jamison was more versatile on offense with steadier output.
And Haywood was a rock, when he wasn't fighting for play time with Etan, or fighting him for any other reason LOL.

But I'd take 45 games if we got it. That would be huge for a first year head coach with a new team assembled. I have doubts, the East is getting deep and dangerous. Still, the parallels made me grin.

I'd take Dinwiddie over Hughes, but Jamison is better than Bertans.

I'd say Beal versus Arenas, Rui vs Jeffries, and Haywood vs Gafford are all pretty even, with our current guys having more of a chance for improvement due to their youth and inexperience.

That Arenas team didn't have anybody nearly as good as KCP, Kuzma, Bryant and Harrell coming off the bench.

[doclinkin]

I'd say Beal versus Arenas, Rui vs Jeffries, and Haywood vs Gafford are all pretty even, with our current guys having more of a chance for improvement due to their youth and inexperience.

That Arenas team didn't have anybody nearly as good as KCP, Kuzma, Bryant and Harrell coming off the bench.

I'd say Arenas was harder to gameplan for since he was the prototype of the Dame/Stef types whose range extends to the logo. Teams didn't have a prior model to work from on defense. Beal is solidly good all the time, but he can't take over a game and carry a team on his hot streak. Win or lose he gets his 30 year after year, whether we are okay or whether we suck. Prime Arenas could out-duel any player in the league though.

I'd agree on Jamison being better than Bertans, and the bench being better now, but recall EFJ played his big 3 for 40 minutes a game, so the bench was practically irrelevant. LOL.

But KCP/Kuzma are far better than Jarvis Hayes/Jeffries.
And yeah Rui is better than Jeffries, better even than, um, Kwame Brown...

(Is he better than Blatche though? Or Veseley? Or Pecherov? LOL man this franchise has had more than its share, no doubt)

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'd say Beal versus Arenas, Rui vs Jeffries, and Haywood vs Gafford are all pretty even, with our current guys having more of a chance for improvement due to their youth and inexperience.

That Arenas team didn't have anybody nearly as good as KCP, Kuzma, Bryant and Harrell coming off the bench.

I'd say Arenas was harder to gameplan for since he was the prototype of the Dame/Stef types whose range extends to the logo. Teams didn't have a prior model to work from on defense. Beal is solidly good all the time, but he can't take over a game and carry a team on his hot streak. Win or lose he gets his 30 year after year, whether we are okay or whether we suck. Prime Arenas could out-duel any player in the league though.

I'd agree on Jamison being better than Bertans, and the bench being better now, but recall EFJ played his big 3 for 40 minutes a game, so the bench was practically irrelevant. LOL.

But KCP/Kuzma are far better than Jarvis Hayes/Jeffries.
And yeah Rui is better than Jeffries, better even than, um, Kwame Brown...

(Is he better than Blatche though? Or Veseley? Or Pecherov? LOL man this franchise has had more than its share, no doubt)

Always makes me wonder what if we kept Hughes and then made the Kwame for Caron trade...

Arenas, Hughes, Butler, Jamison, Haywood...

Would have loved to see that team play together!

[penbeast0]

I'd say Beal versus Arenas, Rui vs Jeffries, and Haywood vs Gafford are all pretty even, with our current guys having more of a chance for improvement due to their youth and inexperience.

That Arenas team didn't have anybody nearly as good as KCP, Kuzma, Bryant and Harrell coming off the bench.

I'd say Arenas was harder to gameplan for since he was the prototype of the Dame/Stef types whose range extends to the logo. Teams didn't have a prior model to work from on defense. Beal is solidly good all the time, but he can't take over a game and carry a team on his hot streak. Win or lose he gets his 30 year after year, whether we are okay or whether we suck. Prime Arenas could out-duel any player in the league though.

I'd agree on Jamison being better than Bertans, and the bench being better now, but recall EFJ played his big 3 for 40 minutes a game, so the bench was practically irrelevant. LOL.

But KCP/Kuzma are far better than Jarvis Hayes/Jeffries.
And yeah Rui is better than Jeffries, better even than, um, Kwame Brown...

(Is he better than Blatche though? Or Veseley? Or Pecherov? LOL man this franchise has had more than its share, no doubt)

Always makes me wonder what if we kept Hughes and then made the Kwame for Caron trade...

Arenas, Hughes, Butler, Jamison, Haywood...

Would have loved to see that team play together!

Hughes was not a good NBA player. He had a career year here but the steal numbers somehow gave him a defensive rep that I just never saw justified and he was a poor percentage shooter and a mediocre distributor. Most similar modern player was Austin Rivers who we also were forced to watch wear a Wiz uni.

I wish the team had had faith in Haywood and the Gil hadn't screwed up and had stayed around at his peak level for awhile more. Jamison and Butler were both talented pros who were not quite All-Star level but no desire to see more Larry Hughes.

[doclinkin]

We might be better, but the team has been a long time on the treadmill of mediocrity. Unless you think otherwise. If we catch lightning in a bottle with this crew and all the moves work out as we can only hope, do you still see this team winning the Eastern Conference championship? If so I'd like to see the case for it. Shoot:

Outside/Inside, motion, depth. The ineffable, chemistry.

Beal at his best, off motion and screens, has hit .400+ 3 of 9 seasons.
He did so most recently with Bojan Bogdanovic and Otto Porter each also hitting .400 or thereabouts. John Wall averaged 7 free throws a game, 10 assists with so many options to kick it to.

Watch on YouTube

We won 49 games, good for 4th in the EC.
Beat the Hawks, took the Celtics to game 7 in the semis.
John Wall had a career year, Beal was coming into his strength and confidence. Otto played 80 games healthy.
Otherwise, aside from Marcin Gortat setting solid screens, we had not much of consequence going for us.

Still, outside shooting from 3 positions, solid screens and picks at the top of the key, the middle wide open for the pick and roll game for Wall/Gortat, was the recipe for success. If we are making a case for a successful run this year, that seems to be the formula. Hot shooting from outside, pick and roll chemistry between guards and bigs, free throws to stop the clock, and stop any runs, foul out opposing starters, keep us in games late. Do we have enough of each?

Since this is a thought experiment imagining success, I am cherry picking the stats that make the players look best.

HOT OUTSIDE
Beal: Shooting .404 when he is on court with shooters who draw attention.
Bertans: career .400 3FG, shooting 8/game in Washington. Deadly off ball and in motion.
KCP: .410 last year, avg 4/ game stand still shooter, hot from both corners..
Kuzma: .361 last year, avg 5.5/game, best in motion with catch & shoot skill.
Rui: playoffs this year: was the .600 3FG a total fluke? or small sample size at 3/game. Consistency will be key, but hopeful.
Bryant: above .400 in Washington, 2/game
Holiday: career .375, avg 3/game
Kispert: .440 at Gonzaga, senior year. 6.5/game
Neto: .400, .390 in DC
Holiday: career .372. .390 during his best year.
IIRC even 6'10" Isaiah Todd had a string of smooth shooting games late in the G-League season.

In any configuration we can put shooters in the wings and with the ball. We have sufficient depth that on any given night one guy should be hot enough to keep us in the game. Yeah we will have to get them the ball, and don't have top-notch passers at every position, but still, on any given play someone who can shoot is bound to be open. That opens up the middle for the others. Ironically now we have the standstill shooters that Westbrook was looking for in the corners all year. But most shoot well even in motion, teams will get tired trying to chase and keep up with them. And if we get tired running patterns, we can re-fresh the position with the next guy.

If the current version of Beal can hit the 3 like he has in the past on top of the rest of his game. Well, yeah, then he may hit Hibachi status. Dangerous all over the court. Outside and in:

ATTACK THE LANES/FOUL THEM OUT:
Beal: avgs about 8 FT's a game the last 2 years
Dinwiddie: 7FTA's last time he was seen healthy
Montrezl Harrell: over 5FTA/ game his last 2 years with the Clips

Trez is a pain for Bigs to handle when he gets the ball in the pick and roll. Beal and Dinwiddie require so much attention with the ball in their hands that teams who show hard or try to trap the ball handler will be left scrambling to catch up when Harrell attacks with determination.

Watch on YouTube

Ballhandling is our shallowest position, especially with Dinwiddie recovering from injury. Still he and Beal can trade off the on-ball attack. Beal tends to play long minutes. Maybe we get something from Holiday/WInston. Winston on offense is skilled in the motion game, getting teammates open with misdirection and hesitation moves. Teammates can learn fundamentals from him even if he proves too foot-slow to keep up on court. He was a terrible fit on a Westbrook team, but in a motion scheme he has the right sense of spacing/timing and may get a 2nd look by coach Wes.

We can also look to secondary playmaking by smart Bigs out of screens and picks. Deni showed flashes, and Harrell is an underrated passer in this role:

Watch on YouTube

PICK AND ROLL THREATS
Beal and DWiddie are a lethal attack from the outside in. Players hack and chase when they get beat by them. If you can force opponents to foul you, you can stay in any game. The ones who will help them spring loose are the Big guys, who look to be a dangerous threat in this function:

Gafford: above 60% inside 10 feet, FG 66% on pick and roll plays
Trez: 74% on pick and roll plays, getting fouled about 25% of the time

Bryant is less efficient out of the pick and roll, since he has to gather himself to get momentum and lacks stop/start quick twitch speed. His defenders can catch up. However he is stellar once he is already in motion on a catch and finish off the ball:

CUT EM DOWN BIGS
Bryant: scored 81% on cuts to the basket, for 16% of his offense. He was fouled on his cuts 22% of the time.
Gafford: 77% on cuts, accounting for 30% of his offense
Trez: 71% on cuts, accounting for almost 25% of his plays.

All of our bigs cover a ton of ground when they aggressively slice to the hoop.
We lack scoring on cuts out of the wing or guard positions, no SF with great hands and hops. The closest we've got is:

Rui: 61% on cuts, accounting for 11% of his offense. But this is only the 39th percentile league wide.

What looks like redundancy with an odd man out may actually prove a strength for us. Bigs tend to foul more than other players since the action is funneled towards them. When one sits there is another waiting, each with a different strength. And all play with pace and activity. Bryant is recovering from injury but runs hard end to end, Gafford gets gassed since he jumps all over the court, Trez plays aggressive. We lead the league in high activity Bigs. If we can force opponent bigs to foul out trying to chase and keep up with this corps, then we further soften up the interior for DInwiddie and Beal.

OVERVIEW
To sum up:

On Offense, motion on the perimeter forces defenses to chase, or spring free accurate shooters.
Opportunistic ball handlers can find gaps and seams to slice past over-eager defenders.
Enthusiastic bigs screen off the ball or set hard picks. Bigs roll off picks, cut off screens, attack hard and fast.
Bryant has the option to pick and pop if he is left alone to hit a standstill three.
Our depth in starting calibre players off the bench means we can can feast on opponents second units.
Depth will also tire out teams who rely on their stars. Substitute freely. Run the same sets that work with interchangebale personnel.

Every team runs pick and roll plays, augmented by outside shooting. Pretty standard stuff. Our advantage is that we have a few players who do these things at an elite level. Bertans hitting outside, as a catch and shoot big, drawing opposing bigs from the paint. Beal and Dinwiddie attacking the lanes and forcing contact. Bryant scoring under the basket. Montrezl Harrell attacking the lanes in the pick and roll. Individually each is stoppable, but if we get our timing down and groove it so we can hit the right option each time, we can score over any team in the league.

On Defense we have most of what you need to do well:
one-on-one perimeter defenders in Rui, Bertans, Holiday, KCP.
Rearline intimidation in Gafford.
Rebounding from Bryant and Gafford.
2nd line rebounding from Kuzma, Beal, KCP.

The rest is up to coaching, chemistry, team cohesion. Young veterans all at a similar point in their career, in their prime or reaching their breakthrough years.

And of course the swift maturation to All-star status from one or all of our young players. Players adding aspects to their game we haven't seen yet. A jumper for Trez/Gafford. A low post game for Rui. Deni regaining his game and confidence from overseas championship runs. Bryant returning to the game faster and quicker on defense. Dinwiddie's shot beginning to fall from the midrange and out. Montrezl Harrell says he aims to be an all-star. Improved habits/activity on defense plus a reliable jumper would put him in conversation as a 4/5 instead of undersized center. Shooting is one skill many players develop over time. He has steadily improved his FT shooting, that tends to be the sign of a player putting in the work to improve.

Growth and development, a few lucky breaks, good karma, an off year for the league MVP contenders -- never know, we might just mess around and win a series or two.

Aside from that it does look like we have a foundation to build on, with enough players developing to look pretty good, and enough pieces that a midseason trade could make us look even better. Here the depth is also depth in tradeable assets.

So, we are basically one or two players away. The problem as always is that those players are a healthy Kawhi, this year's Giannis, any year's LeBron. One or two MVPs away from a championship, that's all Still I do like this squad and think they will surprise some teams who think they can overlook us this year. Should be interesting to see how it all comes together.

[payitforward]

How good can we/will we be? Here's one way to think about it....

The more minutes your most productive players get, the more games you win. Last year, our 3 most productive players by far were Westbrook, Gafford & Beal.

Assuming health, we know about how many minutes Brad will play & about how good he'll be. As to Gafford, OTOH, how many minutes he'll play is an open question. We won't know until we know. Still, we'll have him all season, not just the last 23 games. If he can play 22 minutes/game that would be 1800 minutes on the regular season. That's more or less what I imagine from as I think about the season.

But, before we turn to the ways the team has a chance to improve, i.e. win more games, as a result of the players we've added, we have to give equal consideration to what we've lost.

Westbrook's departure leaves a big hole in productivity, because overall he was our most productive player. He bounced back from a mediocre year in Houston, started out injured, but was terrific nonetheless in almost 2400 minutes. But, that said...

...another 11 guys from last year (!) are also gone. Overall, those guys played about 6000 minutes, & overall they weren't particularly good.

Those 8400 minutes will be played by others. Except, last year was a 72-game season. So, make that 9500 minutes for 82 games.

Mostly those "others" will be the 7 new Wizards -- but we also get Bryant back. Neither Kispert nor Todd seems likely to get many minutes, so how good we are depends a whole lot on the other 6: Dinwiddie, Harrell, KCP, Kuzma, Holiday & Bryant. On how productive they are when on the court, & on how many minutes they get. &, of course, on the fact that Gafford will be here all season, not just for 23 games (& will play more as well).

None of this actually determines anything -- it's just back of the envelope scenario-creation. All the same, using estimates for minutes & productivity that seem realistic to me based on past performance of everyone involved (but which don't take into account the possibility of anything unforeseen -- esp. injuries) make it seem to me that we could be pretty good. It looks to me like we might win 45+ games, maybe as many as 48.

Reality -- as soon as it arrives -- will more than likely make me look like an idiot! I know that.

[nate33]

I think Gafford will be the key for us. On a per-36-minute basis, Gafford was literally an All-NBA caliber player for us. He posted 20.6 points, 11.3 boards and 3.6 blocks per 36, with a TS% of .696! He was doing it against backups and without much of a scouting report against him, so that's probably going to change. But if he can come pretty close to those numbers over 25-28 minutes a game, it really will change our fortunes.

I just wanted to put into perspective how incredibly productive he was for us last year. He was 7th in the NBA in WS/48, right behind Jokic, Embiid and Gobert and ahead of Adebayo and Capela. If I told you we had a core of Beal, Dinwiddie and Bam Adebayo, plus quality depth around them, wouldn't you be pretty excited? Well, maybe Gafford is the next Bam.

[Ruzious]

I think Gafford will be the key for us. On a per-36-minute basis, Gafford was literally an All-NBA caliber player for us. He posted 20.6 points, 11.3 boards and 3.6 blocks per 36, with a TS% of .696! He was doing it against backups and without much of a scouting report against him, so that's probably going to change. But if he can come pretty close to those numbers over 25-28 minutes a game, it really will change our fortunes.

I just wanted to put into perspective how incredibly productive he was for us last year. He was 7th in the NBA in WS/48, right behind Jokic, Embiid and Gobert and ahead of Adebayo and Capela. If I told you we had a core of Beal, Dinwiddie and Bam Adebayo, plus quality depth around them, wouldn't you be pretty excited? Well, maybe Gafford is the next Bam.

Even contracts aside, I'd rather have Gafford than Cappela - because of Gafford's speed and quickness. While teams will adjust some to him (probably by being more physical with him), he should be able to offset that at least somewhat by adding some muscle and showing the beginnings of a perimeter game. It'll be interesting to see how good the Wiz center production and efficiency will be overall - should be top 5 in the NBA.

[DCZards]

I think Gafford will be the key for us. On a per-36-minute basis, Gafford was literally an All-NBA caliber player for us. He posted 20.6 points, 11.3 boards and 3.6 blocks per 36, with a TS% of .696! He was doing it against backups and without much of a scouting report against him, so that's probably going to change. But if he can come pretty close to those numbers over 25-28 minutes a game, it really will change our fortunes.

I just wanted to put into perspective how incredibly productive he was for us last year. He was 7th in the NBA in WS/48, right behind Jokic, Embiid and Gobert and ahead of Adebayo and Capela. If I told you we had a core of Beal, Dinwiddie and Bam Adebayo, plus quality depth around them, wouldn't you be pretty excited? Well, maybe Gafford is the next Bam.

Gafford has been a great addition and he looks to be an extremely important piece going forward. But I don't expect him to ever have Bam's shooting or ball skills. Of course, I hope he proves me wrong.

I think the more apt comparison is Gobert.

[nate33]

I think Gafford will be the key for us. On a per-36-minute basis, Gafford was literally an All-NBA caliber player for us. He posted 20.6 points, 11.3 boards and 3.6 blocks per 36, with a TS% of .696! He was doing it against backups and without much of a scouting report against him, so that's probably going to change. But if he can come pretty close to those numbers over 25-28 minutes a game, it really will change our fortunes.

I just wanted to put into perspective how incredibly productive he was for us last year. He was 7th in the NBA in WS/48, right behind Jokic, Embiid and Gobert and ahead of Adebayo and Capela. If I told you we had a core of Beal, Dinwiddie and Bam Adebayo, plus quality depth around them, wouldn't you be pretty excited? Well, maybe Gafford is the next Bam.

Gafford has been a great addition and he looks to be an extremely important piece going forward. But I don't expect him to ever have Bam's shooting or ball skills. Of course, I hope he proves me wrong.

I think the more apt comparison is Gobert.

Gafford rebounds much better, scores way more efficiently (and slightly more often), and blocks a ton more shots than Bam. (Again, this is per-minute production as a backup, so grain of salt and all.)

I'm fine with the Gobert comparison in that Gafford seems more like a finisher like Gobert rather than an initiator of offense like Bam. It's just that Gobert is one of the best rim protectors of all time and I didn't want to assume Gafford could meet that standard.

It'll be interesting to see if Gafford develops a midrange jumper. It looks pretty good in workout videos, and his not-awful and steadily improving FT% is somewhat promising. If Gafford can hit that foul line jumper with consistency, it'll really make pick-and-rolls tough to defend because of the pick-and-pop option, and it could mean that we could initiate some sets through Gafford as a high post passer like Miami does with Bam.

Having Harrell as a pick-and-roll mentor might do wonders. Harrell and Lou Williams were virtually unguardable on the pick-and-roll because Harrell is a genius at reading the defense and finding the holes to exploit.

[payitforward]

As Zards points out, Bam & Gafford are not very similar players. But, it has to be possible to make comparative judgments about dissimilar players -- otherwise how could teams make trades or draft picks?

Even so, Bam has proven himself in almost 8000 NBA minutes! Gafford is still mostly unproven -- above all in the way nate mentions: we have yet to see how he performs once the league has had a long look at him!

But, if we're just comparing his 400 minutes in a Wiz uniform vs. Bam's season -- i.e. productivity per 40 minutes -- then Daniel Gafford was far more effective than Bam. & the ways that's true also highlight the differences between them as players.

The two guys scored almost exactly the same number of points per 40 minutes, but Bam used 1.5 more of his team's possessions to put up the points. & if you then look at the other things that directly affect team possessions (hence the team's ability to score buckets), Gafford is way ahead. Other things close the productivity gap some, but overall Gafford was way more productive for us than Bam was on his season.

Once again: I'm not saying Gafford is a better player than Bam -- I hope that's obvious. But... if Daniel Gafford plays 1800 minutes this year & more than that next year, & his productivity stays where it is...? Then it's time to start saying things like that. Not now....

All the same, the numbers he put up for us in 408 minutes would put him among the top handful of Centers in the league. So, yeah, do it again Dan!!

[payitforward]

...Having Harrell as a pick-and-roll mentor might do wonders. Harrell and Lou Williams were virtually unguardable on the pick-and-roll because Harrell is a genius at reading the defense and finding the holes to exploit.

Montrezl Harrell is an awfully good player... & I read somewhere (but where?) that he did play the 4 with the Clippers his first 3 years in the league.

Given Bryant's ability to shoot the 3, it might be interesting to see some minutes with him & Bryant on the floor. Maybe even w/ Bertans as the other front court player.

Obviously, I really like Harrell!

[Dat2U]

There's zero need to play Harrell at PF because we already have 6 of em. Bryant is likely out to January and may need a slow ramp up... there's plenty of minutes at C for Harrell for now as the only reliable backup to Gafford.

[nate33]

There's zero need to play Harrell at PF because we already have 6 of em. Bryant is likely out to January and may need a slow ramp up... there's plenty of minutes at C for Harrell for now as the only reliable backup to Gafford.

Do we actually know Bryant's timetable? The guy looks like he is moving laterally exceptionally well in workout videos from early August. Does he really need FIVE more months?