[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Bill Russell and Magic Johnson

Odinn21 · Post #1 » by **Odinn21** » Mon Sep 6, 2021 11:10 pm

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 10:00 EST). This very first thread will have nearly 63 hours voting window.

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;

Spoiler:

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Spoiler:

eminence · Post #2 » by **eminence** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 12:36 am

Tricky, I suppose the first thought is to kind of outline what criteria I value to myself.

-A sustained high level of play throughout RS and PO, with a very slight preference towards the playoffs (a 5.5 RS/5.5 PO would win out over a 4.5 RS/6.0 PO for me, while a 5.0 RS/6.0 PO would win over both)
-An addendum to the above, RS will be weighted less if the player is coming off of sustained team success and thus has little to 'prove' in the RS (see later career Bill Russell)
-Evidence that the players style in that season works in a high level team environment even if their team wasn't necessarily performing at a high level
-Don't feel I have a preference towards offense or defense in terms of which side of the ball impact is coming from
-A full season, significant time missed due to injury will be penalized accordingly
-Only in very tight races will level of competition be evaluated
-In general I tend to not give the benefit of the doubt to very young/inexperienced players

Thoughts on other things I should think on more abstractly before diving into this particular comparison?

falcolombardi · Post #3 » by **falcolombardi** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 12:48 am

magic and russel are opposite yet kind of similar player

both made almost all their impact in one end of the court and are arguably the best offensive and defensive player ever respectively with a great understanding of the game (russel in defense, magic in offense with pushing the pace)

evamusting russel offense vs magic defense and deciding how to evaluate russel defensive impact. if in general (hard to do) or relative to his own era

are the biggest questions

Odinn21 · Post #4 » by **Odinn21** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 1:46 am

Some thoughts on Bill vs. Magic;
Probably the most one-dimensional players in the top 10 range.
I always look at strong suit vs. strong suit and weak suit vs. weak suit, rather than comparing offense to offense and defense to defense. To me, that gives a better sense of extents.

Russell's strongest seasons ('62-'65) look a bit stronger than Magic's strongest seasons but I think Magic will have stronger seasons when we pas the best few seasons. In terms of consistency, there are definitely some primes I have high regards for and these 2 are among them.

Right now, I'm watching some footage to see if there's some important nuances I might be missing.

Dutchball97 · Post #5 » by **Dutchball97** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 8:04 am

We're starting off with one of the most interesting comparisons right off the bat imo. Besides the offense vs defense split that has been pointed out already, I see both Russell and Magic as players with amazingly consistent primes without clear outlier peaks. This could make the margins between the seasons very small and will likely lead to quite a bit of variation between the different lists.

DWhiteMamba · Post #6 » by **DWhiteMamba** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 8:11 am

So basically list all Magic Johnson's seasons in order of quality, and then whatever of Russell's are his best seasons to round out the bottom of the list.

sansterre · Post #7 » by **sansterre** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 10:17 am

Given my limited time and discomfort making broad subjective judgments, I'm probably just going to find a statistical reference point in common between the two players and use that reference point to blend the regular season and postseason for each season.

Because Russell is one of the players, Win Shares are the tool of choice. I'm taking them straight, because while Magic's ATG passing is certainly underrated by Win Shares, it is probable that Russell's ATG defensive impact is equally overlooked.

When I put all those in a blender and shake I get the following:

1. '65 Russell
2. '62 Russell
3. '60 Russell
4. '64 Russell
5. '87 Magic
6. '90 Magic
7. '86 Magic
8. '91 Magic
9. '63 Russell
10. '82 Magic
11. '61 Russell
12. '66 Russell

You'll notice that Magic's 2nd and 3rd best seasons are listed as '90 and '86, neither of which were years that the Lakers made the Finals. But if you look at his metrics, his team's lack of success had nothing to do with his individual performance.

Russell's numbers just seem to be too high to overcome in his best seasons. When you're the primary cause for by far the best defense in the league and you play 40+ minutes a game . . . a lot of credit comes your way.

I'll admit that my methodology is less involved than everyone else's, but it's fairly objective and (for me) seems to pass the smell test.

70sFan · Post #8 » by **70sFan** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 11:15 am

I think we should start with making the order of best seasons for each player:

Magic Johnson

1987
1990
1988
1989
1991
1986
1985

1984
1982
1983
1980
1981

Bill Russell

1962
1965
1963
1964
1960
1966
1961
1959

1968
1967
1969
1958
1957

I'd go with something like this, if anyone has any suggestions I'm free to discussion.

I believe that what Odinn said is very important - we should look at offense vs offense and defense vs defense in this comparison. Russell's defensive impact is so massive that it can be compared to Magic's offense without much problems. In fact, I believe that Russell's defense peaked at considerably higher level than Magic's offense (he's my GOAT offensive player, so keep that in mind).

The question is - what about Russell's offense vs Magic's defense? I think that both are a bit underrated historically, but Russell gave Celtics more on his weaker side in 1960-66 period. Magic was above average defender in his best years, but Russell could be a game-changer on that end in competitive playoff series.

This is my first attempt of making the final ranking:

1. 1962 Russell - the best combination of RS and PS, Russell's offensive peak and one of his finest defensive seasons
2. 1965 Russell - Russell's 2nd best offensive season and 2nd best defensive season, he thrived in the new role as a facilitator, questionable competition in the playoffs
3. 1963 Russell - slightly worse version of 1962 season
4. 1987 Magic - Magic's absolute peak, one of his best offensive seasons and strong defensive season for his standards
5. 1964 Russell - the best defensive season ever, but significantly weaker on offense, probably struggled with a new role without Cousy
6. 1990 Magic - arguably Magic's best offensive season, which is pretty much GOAT-level offensive season, defense wasn't on the late 1980s level anymore
7. 1960 Russell - great all-around season, but I have a feeling that he didn't reach his defensive peak yet
8. 1988 Magic - would have been higher with better RS performance, great in playoffs - especially in the finals
9. 1989 Magic - would have been higher without injury in the finals, arguably his best season up to the injury
10. 1966 Russell - weaker RS, but excellent postseason with one of his better performances against Wilt, great in the finals as well
11. 1991 Magic - all-time great offensive season and amazing playoffs run, bad defense at this point hurt his case for higher rank
12. 1961 Russell - relatively weak RS for Russell, Celtics were dominant in the playoffs though

I have 7 for Russell and 5 for Magic, close but with clear preference for Russell at the top.

Odinn21 · Post #9 » by **Odinn21** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 1:59 pm

I had some time stamped videos to talk about but I decided they were an overkill since the differences were stylistic rather than being directly comparable.

Top 7 seasons for Bill Russell;
1962
1965
1963
1964
1961
1960
1966

Top 7 seasons for Magic Johnson;
1987
1988
1990
1989 (w/o the injury in the Finals, I think 1989 was clearly over 1990)
1991
1986
1985

Simply put, I think Russell's defense was better than Johnson's offense & Russell's offense was better than Johnson's defense in general. I think if Magic did not have that shift all offensive specialists had (shift from defense to more offense as they get better on offense), I think he could be on par with Russell. But his defensive efforts faded away too strongly after 1987.

My list of top 12 seasons;
1. 1962 Bill Russell
2. 1965 Bill Russell
3. 1963 Bill Russell
4. 1987 Magic Johnson
5. 1964 Bill Russell
6. 1988 Magic Johnson
7. 1990 Magic Johnson
8. 1961 Bill Russell
9. 1989 Magic Johnson
10. 1991 Magic Johnson
11. 1986 Magic Johnson
12. 1960 Bill Russell*

*: Russell's performance on offense in 1960 was quite inconsistent. His offensive totters was the reason why it took full 7 games to beat the Hawks. He had quite a few turnovers and bad passes crossing the half court.
If Magic didn't start slacking on defense after 1987, I think the spots after the top 2 could favour him in a very clear way. But especially by 1989, he was a negative defensive impact quite clearly. The Lakers had to design their defense to cover for Magic's weaknesses like 95% of the time Magic was on the floor.

70sFan · Post #10 » by **70sFan** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 2:42 pm

Odinn21 wrote:I had some time stamped videos to talk about but I decided they were an overkill since the differences were stylistic rather than being directly comparable.

I'd like to see them anyway. Especially the examples of 1960 concerns.

Dutchball97 · Post #11 » by **Dutchball97** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 4:19 pm

I've been thinking about this one a lot because I have a hard time finding the right balance between regular season and post-season. Besides that with the limited amount of stats available not only for the 60s but even still in the 80s there isn't much of a mathematical approach I'd be confident with. This exercise has been educational about both of these guys' careers but it has also shown me the limitations about cross era comparisons and especially my own ability to adequately judge these guys that played well before I started watching basketball. I still would really like to participate in the project but please take my rankings with a healthy dose of salt.

1. Bill Russell, 1965 - Arguably Russell's best regular season, probably his best post-season. Just an all around elite season, capped off by his most impressive finals performance.
2. Bill Russell, 1962 - Russell's best offensive season and together with 65 these two seasons stand out as his most complete.
3. Magic Johnson, 1987 - Magic's signature season for a good reason. Even though it is hard to seperate Russell's other prime years from 65 and 62, I do think Magic's 87 season is more complete across a full season than any of Russell's other seasons.
4. Bill Russell, 1964 - In terms of the play-offs there are a couple season that look a bit better on paper than this season but I was still very impressed by his post-season run. Besides that he has his peak regular season WS this season.
5. Bill Russell, 1963 - Russell in the 62-65 period was at his best but this season simply stands out the least among them.
6. Magic Johnson, 1990 - I'd say this is Magic's best regular season. His play-off stats look impressive on paper and are even better on closer look. He had a solid first round but had probably his best series against the Suns, while getting probably the least help from his teammates in his career. With a deeper run this could've been in contention for the top spots.
7. Magic Johnson, 1991 - One of his best regular seasons accompanied by a very solid but unspectacular post-season.
8. Bill Russell, 1966 - Russell's stats look more impressive in 1960 and 1961 but WS is pretty bad at quantifying playmaking and not great at defense so I don't think the stat captures the steps he took in those things after these season. Next to that his post-season was also pretty incredible still.
9. Magic Johnson, 1986 - Similar season to Russell's 66. Not among his best regular seasons but his post-season more than makes up for it.
10. Magic Johnson, 1989 - Missing the finals is a tough sell for me and I'm also not too impressed by his series against the Sonics but I can't fault him too much for that one when the Lakers still swept them either way. One of the hardest seasons to rank for me but I can't completely leave it out of the list due to the very strong regular season.
11. Bill Russell, 1960 - I went back and forth between 1960 and 1961 for Russell as well as considering Magic's 85 and 88 seasons but I'm going with the season that is statistically the most impressive.
12. Bill Russell, 1961 - Magic's 88 finals were great but his play-off run overall wasn't his best and it was a pretty weak regular season for his prime. 85 is the year Magic became truely elite but I'm once again not too impressed with his play-offs overall and he got outshined in the finals to boot. While the playmaking boost definitely came later, if DWS is to be believed this is the year Russell's defensive prime really took off and it is a pretty strong all round season so I'm comfortable rounding my list off with this season.

With Russell taking most of the top spots (4 out of the top 5 seasons) as well as having more seasons in general in this list (7 vs 5) the winner is a bit more clear than I initially expected. I do wish we had a bit more stats to go off for Russell especially as I had to assume more than I liked. I think this made me give Russell the benefit of the doubt at points I did not for Magic.

DQuinn1575 · Post #12 » by **DQuinn1575** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 5:12 pm

sansterre wrote:Given my limited time and discomfort making broad subjective judgments, I'm probably just going to find a statistical reference point in common between the two players and use that reference point to blend the regular season and postseason for each season.

Because Russell is one of the players, Win Shares are the tool of choice. I'm taking them straight, because while Magic's ATG passing is certainly underrated by Win Shares, it is probable that Russell's ATG defensive impact is equally overlooked.

When I put all those in a blender and shake I get the following:

1. '65 Russell
2. '62 Russell
3. '60 Russell
4. '64 Russell
5. '87 Magic
6. '90 Magic
7. '86 Magic
8. '91 Magic
9. '63 Russell
10. '82 Magic
11. '61 Russell
12. '66 Russell

You'll notice that Magic's 2nd and 3rd best seasons are listed as '90 and '86, neither of which were years that the Lakers made the Finals. But if you look at his metrics, his team's lack of success had nothing to do with his individual performance.

Russell's numbers just seem to be too high to overcome in his best seasons. When you're the primary cause for by far the best defense in the league and you play 40+ minutes a game . . . a lot of credit comes your way.

I'll admit that my methodology is less involved than everyone else's, but it's fairly objective and (for me) seems to pass the smell test.

Curious on your pick for 82 for Magic. His assists go up in 83, his shooting % also go up while scoring stays similar. In my mind he improves every year, and my eyes told me he was better in the mid 80s. Others agreed, he is only 2nd team all-nba and 8th in mvp voting. I haven’t ranked these yet, but going i I’m thinking 82 trails every year 84-91, and I’d have to look at stats closer for 82 v 83.

Thanks

sansterre · Post #13 » by **sansterre** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 5:39 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:Curious on your pick for 82 for Magic. His assists go up in 83, his shooting % also go up while scoring stays similar. In my mind he improves every year, and my eyes told me he was better in the mid 80s. Others agreed, he is only 2nd team all-nba and 8th in mvp voting. I haven’t ranked these yet, but going i I’m thinking 82 trails every year 84-91, and I’d have to look at stats closer for 82 v 83.

Thanks

To be clear, I'll admit that I didn't do a whole lot besides throw RS Win Shares and then an adjusted Playoff Win Shares together, so it's almost inevitable that there be flaws in my approach.

In the regular season both WS and VORP have '82 as being better than '83, and this is mostly on account of his defense (offensive metrics favor his '83). But the Lakers were a quality defense in '82 (-1.5) and below average in '83, and Magic's steals and defensive rebounding were higher in '82. I would guess that Magic is given some credit for being a starter on a strong defense, and isn't getting that same credit in '83 because the defense wasn't good.

But the real selling point for my (completely arbitrary) metric was the '82 playoffs. The Lakers ripped through that year, going 12-2 en route to the championship. And that year Kareem had a weirdly weak showing in the playoffs. Here's how their roster looked in the '82 Playoffs (BPM):

Nixon: +1.1 (+2.3 OBPM)
Magic: +8.1 (+5.7 OBPM)
Wilkes: -1.2 (+1.2 OBPM)
McAdoo: +1.6 (+1.8 OBPM)
Kareem: +4.4 (+3.0 OBPM)

Basically, the Lakers stomped through the playoffs and Magic was (as far as box score metrics can tell) by far the most effective player on that squad. And so he gets a *ton* of credit for that.

In '83 he was an even bigger share of the performance, but they were considerably less dominant that year.

So that's the reasoning. Not saying that it's good reasoning, but it's reasoning.

LA Bird · Post #14 » by **LA Bird** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 5:39 pm

1. 64 Russell
2. 87 Magic
3. 90 Magic
4. 65 Russell
5. 62 Russell
6. 89 Magic
7. 63 Russell
8. 60 Russell
9. 86 Magic
10. 91 Magic
11. 85 Magic
12. 61 Russell

Two very comparable players even though they excelled on opposite ends of the court. In general, I am lower on Russell's defense than most of this board - still the clear defensive GOAT to me but only around the same level as the offensive GOAT candidates (see this post in the top 100 project for more detail). I consider 64 Russell the GOAT defensive peak and the Celtics dominating the two strongest opponents of that period with peak Wilt and Oscar in the playoffs was very impressive compared to the Showtime Lakers beating up on some fodder Western teams or other version of the Russell Celtics that sometimes barely scraped by much weaker teams. It's probably odd to leave out 88 Magic considering it's right in the middle of his best 7 years but that was a bit of an underwhelming year for both Magic individually and the Lakers as a team. 66 Russell also just missed the cut.

Post #15 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 7:39 pm

DWhiteMamba wrote:So basically list all Magic Johnson's seasons in order of quality, and then whatever of Russell's are his best seasons to round out the bottom of the list.

I would guess that outside of his first season when he missed a lot of games and his 3rd season when he was injured at the key point of the playoffs, all of Russell's other seasons except possibly 69 would be top 10 in terms of impact relative to Magic's. His impact was amazingly consistent as well from his first moment in the league until his final year where he seemed to have slowed down a bit. Magic is the GOAT PG but in the 20th century a great C was considerably more impactful than a great player at any other position on the floor all else being roughly equal.

So, great as Magic was, I would vote Russell's top 10 seasons 1-10, then a couple of Magic seasons.

________________________________________________________________________________

Put another way, if Magic gets injured, the Lakers have a team that generally looks like either
Nixon, Cooper, Wilkes, Rambis, late prime Kareem or
Cooper, Scott, Worthy, Green, post prime Kareem.

I'd consider both of those teams a reasonable contender to get to the finals and possibly even a title given good coaching.

IF Russell gets injured, the Celtics are running out:

Gene Conley, Heinsohn, Sanders, Sharman, Cousy (+ Ramsey) or some variation of that or
Hank Finkel, Howell, Havlicek, S. Jones, KC Jones.

The first is arguably weaker than the teams that finished 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd out of 4 in the East pre-Russell in a league where the rest of the league is stronger (I have Macauley as better than Heinsohn, Lotscutoff as a little worse than Sanders), the second looks suspiciously like the team that went 34-48 the year Russell retired (plus Sam Jones of course who should push them to the .500 level). Neither is a serious contender, though part of that is of course that Magic had a strong backup while Russell didn't.

Narigo · Post #16 » by **Narigo** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 9:42 pm

Found a website that uses RAPM and the box score on players who play from the 50-70s. Not sure how he calculates it though. Thought it might be interesting to anyone who wants more data on older players.

https://shutupandjam.net/nba-ncaa-stats/1962-estimated-impact/

DQuinn1575 · Post #17 » by **DQuinn1575** » Tue Sep 7, 2021 10:06 pm

Not a lot different than what's been done or said. I'm using a combination of regular season and playoffs, with playoff games being weighted more, but in total the regular season counting more in most cases. For Russell I think weighting his performance in 10 playoff games vs 80 regular season games as equally important doesn't tell me who is better, as the sample size of 10
games is obviously much smaller. Now the games are more important, and for now i am doubling them; I will tweak my approach in this project a little so this is not set in stone.

These are the two guys on the list who joined good teams and moved them up a notch. The Celtics were a first place team when Russell joined them mid-season; the Lakers were one of the better teams in the league. And throughout their careers they always had a group of good teammate. I'm sure somewhere we will talk about teammates, but don't feel it's relevant in a
comparison between these two. Definitely a Wilt v Russell conversation for Bill, not positive about Magic.

One year I do differ from the list so far is 1959, which probably shows this. Russell's playoff performance wasn't the best, particularly his shooting in the Finals. However, in the regular season this is one of his best shooting years, and his assists were at a higher level than prior.
Conversely I do have 63 lower than most, as it turns and he doesn't shoot as well in the season but has a better playoff.

1 1965 Russell
2 1962 Russell
3 1964 Russell
4 1990 Magic
5 1987 Magic
6 1960 Russell
7 1989 Magic
8 1991 Magic
9 1959 Russell
10 1986 Magic
11 1963 Russell
12 1982 Magic

The season wind up 6-6, but Russell has the top 3 so obviously when you score it Russell wins.

Djoker · Post #18 » by **Djoker** » Wed Sep 8, 2021 4:34 am

This is very tough considering the two men played different positions. I've also seen someone say that Russell's offense was more impactful than Magic's defense which I definitely agree with but that may not be a fair comparison because a guard can hardly impact defense that much although Magic was 6'9'' so he doesn't get as much of a pass in that respect as a 6'1'' guard. With his size, Magic should have been more of a defender. Russell at his best didn't move the needle a whole lot on offense but he was still a good offensive player including excellent passing and screen setting for teammates which doesn't always show up on the stat sheet but there are countless testimonies asserting those qualities about Russell.

Top 7 seasons for Bill Russell;
1962
1965
1963
1964
1960
1961
1966

Top 7 seasons for Magic Johnson;
1987
1990
1989
1988
1991
1986
1985

Putting them together, I'd rank them like this:

1962 Russell
1965 Russell
1963 Russell
1987 Magic
1990 Magic
1989 Magic
1964 Russell
1960 Russell
1961 Russell
1966 Russell
1988 Magic
1991 Magic

O_6 · Post #19 » by **O_6** » Wed Sep 8, 2021 6:15 am

I've been busy and I'm not sure how consistently I can participate, but I really love the concept of this project and think it's ultimately one of the best ways to compare players. If the participation remains strong in this project, the type of data you'll have at the end of this will be extremely interesting to analyze.

I will try my hardest to keep a consistent ranking method in this project, but I can't promise that I won't be biased at times and do something that contradicts another ranking. But like I said, I'll try to be consistent and unbiased. Based on reading the posts above, I'll be ranking these players in a similar way. Taking into account RS, Playoffs, raw impact, skill-set, etc.

Russell and Magic are two of my favorite players ever. They're also two of the most one-dimensional players in terms of impact among those in this project. I also think these are two players who are so respected because of the quality of their average prime years, not necessarily because of mind-blowing Peak seasons. I feel like Russell (1-4 range on my GOAT list) is a little bit better than Magic (6-9 range) and because their arguments (Dominance on one end of floor, Consistently excellent prime seasons, Successful playoff performers, lack a little extra longevity) are so similar, this is a comparison where I give the general edge to Russell.

How I rank the seasons...

1. 1965 Bill Russell
2. 1962 Bill Russell
3. 1964 Bill Russell
4. 1963 Bill Russell
5. 1987 Magic Johnson
6. 1990 Magic Johnson

7. 1966 Bill Russell
8. 1991 Magic Johnson
9. 1989 Magic Johnson
10. 1988 Magic Johnson
11. 1960 Bill Russell
12. 1961 Bill Russell

After doing this I realize I'll need to try harder to compare an individual player's seasons first, before trying to compare them vs. another. I will admit that my individual season rankings for these two might change a little over the course of this project as I "re"-dive back into the specifics of the player's career.

Even if I don't feel 100% confident in my individual season rankings at this point, I do feel like this comparison was going to play out the same no matter what. I believe that from about '62-'65, Bill Russell had one of the ultimate stretches in NBA history and was just an unreal player. I'm even higher on his '66 than most of the other people here, that's a season that might even go up on my rankings for Bill Russell in the future. I do think that '87-'91 Magic was an all-time special player, I believe that '86 Magic was #13 on this list for me and '85 would be close to next. That 7 year stretch from '85-'91 was historically good from Magic, with '87 being the peak combination of athleticism/IQ and '89-'91 seasons being his best pure offensive seasons.

With the 7-5 overall edge and the top 4 seasons on this list, Russell comfortably wins this battle for me.

Dr Positivity · Post #20 » by **Dr Positivity** » Wed Sep 8, 2021 6:52 am

I am probably one of the highest on Russell offense, it's the only way his career makes sense to me. With that in mind he has a more balanced two way impact than Magic.

1. 1963 Russell
2. 1962 Russell
3. 1965 Russell
4. 1960 Russell
5. 1959 Russell
6. 1961 Russell
7. 1987 Magic
8. 1964 Russell
9. 1990 Magic
10. 1991 Magic
11. 1966 Russell
12. 1988 Magic

Don't feel that good about the rankings. My view is mostly that Russell starts fading in 1966 and Magic goes up in 1987. Both years with finals injuries are left off.