2021-2022 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Kobblehead]

Doing re-mock of the 2013 draft made me interested in Trey Burke.

The biggest problem with him was his development with his 3pt shooting was flat. And he can’t generate high FTr because of his size. Other than that, I thought his scoring and PnR game translated well.

IMO if he was drafted as a top 3 pick, a team would be more patient with him I think he would have ended up having a better career than a journey man that he is right now.

I’d imagine that he might have a couple of 20ppg season with our team if we drafted him instead of MCW.

You know what's funny about Trey Burke? He's another cautionary tale for you boy Cam Thomas lol. Just 19% of his field goals occurred at the rim. Too one dimensional a scorer. Same thing with Quickley and Thomas. Very shooting-reliant players.

[DCasey91]

I think Zeller, Caldwell-Pope, Porter, Burke, and Shroder would round out my top 5. I might have been hyping Schroder for #1 given his international defense and shooting (both have been subpar traits for him in the NBA, go figure lol).

I would knock Oladipo and McCollum to the back half of the top 10 for their age.

Ya know who was a sneaky underrated prospect on paper? Myck Kabongo. Beastly slashing lead G with strong defense and good passer. Major knocks were no jumper and small stature, though. I wonder what happened to him? I remember Rich Paul effing up his college career with eligibility stuff.

No Noel or Oli in the top 5? Both had a lot of traction as the number one pick because there wasn’t a standout. Oli was at a very prestige College and his numbers and efficiency popped out of the wazoo along with being an aesthetically attractive two way player which he became. Was in the tourney and had great performances. Like Mitchell got drafted high this year and Oli was a much much better prospect. Noel was the best defensive player in College as a freshman.

Agree with the rest. Schroeder’s resume was more impressive than Giannis’s and had pretty great games early on from memory. He really didn’t carry over his transferable traits which is weird. The Rondo comp was pretty accurate imo.

I mean it’s easier looking back but College/Level of play has to taken into consideration when revising drafts.

[Kobblehead]

I was thinking about putting Mclemore as my second overall pick, numbers and upside checked out. But if my memory serves me right, he was like a 3&D guy in college like this year’s moses moody.

The numbers fell apart when you dig into how he was scoring his buckets. He was being spoonfed buckets. Couldn't dribble or create for himself. And then he had a lot of baggage in his personal life. He was basically Gary Trent on the court and Josh Jackson off the court.

[DCasey91]

Watch on YouTube

13:00 you sure Banch will bust 76iology? . He’s improving so much and slimmed down out of all things lol he really should be in the league now.

Banch is a huge lad and my boy. My boys do well

He’s as big as Tatum is now and the polish will come and then it’s over and it’ll come no worries (was a starting QB so he has the vision).

I mean size, handle, shooting, scoring, rebounding. He close to full package and he’s basically a huge Cade out there.

[76ciology]

Doing re-mock of the 2013 draft made me interested in Trey Burke.

The biggest problem with him was his development with his 3pt shooting was flat. And he can’t generate high FTr because of his size. Other than that, I thought his scoring and PnR game translated well.

IMO if he was drafted as a top 3 pick, a team would be more patient with him I think he would have ended up having a better career than a journey man that he is right now.

I’d imagine that he might have a couple of 20ppg season with our team if we drafted him instead of MCW.

You know what's funny about Trey Burke? He's another cautionary tale for you boy Cam Thomas lol. Just 19% of his field goals occurred at the rim. Too one dimensional a scorer. Same thing with Quickley and Thomas. Very shooting-reliant players.

I actually see that!

Im just trying to re-structure my drafting process where I want to be ok in taking chances on those guys. I do feel that the game favors their style of play that makes them a high upside and low risk player.

Im not saying you will hit the jackpot everytime but I believe you’ll be right more often than not. And you would be able to scoop up guys like CJ, MPJ, Sexton, Lavine, Devin Booker and Trae Young earlier.

I really believe Trey Burke’s career would be a lot different if he was drafted top 3 overall and was allowed to make experiments with force feed buckets like how Suns did with Devin Booker. And Trey kind of been finding his rhythm the season he played with the Knicks, before he signed with us.

What’s lacking to his game is the extra points per shot that can be derived from high volume 3pt or ft game. If he can do that, he may have a Lou Will type career at the worst.

Thinking about it, if Lou Will was drafted top 3 overall in the last 5 years, what’s stopping him from being a scorer as good as Lavine or Beal? At worst, a scorer like Sexton? I do think he also has that shot.

[76ciology]

Watch on YouTube

13:00 you sure Banch will bust 76iology? . He’s improving so much and slimmed down out of all things lol he really should be in the league now.

Banch is a huge lad and my boy. My boys do well

He’s as big as Tatum is now and the polish will come and then it’s over and it’ll come no worries (was a starting QB so he has the vision).

I mean size, handle, shooting, scoring, rebounding. He close to full package and he’s basically a huge Cade out there.

I need to see an actual season. I have to align eyetest and numbers.

Right now Im not too impressed with what im seeing.

Dont worry, i change my mind too often. Remember how low i was with Jalen Green then suddenly turned it around 360.

I dont mind flip flopping once i see more data, thats how you arrive to accuracy.

P.S. i once read about not to buy the hype on duke guys, and once i dig more into that I think it has some legs. Duke has a real good program in hiding red flags of players. Banchero for me looked like Jabari Parker back in 2014.

[76ciology]

I think Zeller, Caldwell-Pope, Porter, Burke, and Shroder would round out my top 5. I might have been hyping Schroder for #1 given his international defense and shooting (both have been subpar traits for him in the NBA, go figure lol).

I would knock Oladipo and McCollum to the back half of the top 10 for their age.

Ya know who was a sneaky underrated prospect on paper? Myck Kabongo. Beastly slashing lead G with strong defense and good passer. Major knocks were no jumper and small stature, though. I wonder what happened to him? I remember Rich Paul effing up his college career with eligibility stuff.

Yeah, im with dcasey here. Im surprised you dont have Dipo as top pick.

Dipo does fit the archetype of a number one overall prospect, you usually select a potential franchise player for this. And this is probably where Cavs decided to go after Benett. But if they really want to go for upside, they should have went for Giannis.

This dilemma reminds me of the Anthony Edwards vs Wiseman pick in 2020. Where I believe if Wolves was starting from scratch, they’d select Wiseman as number 1 pick. But that 2020 is a really weird draft because of covid and how you dont have much data with the prospects. Im
guessing that if Wiseman played more games he would end up looking like between Kuminga to Evan Mobley.

And looking back, reminded me how good Zeller looked as a prospect.

[DCasey91]

Yay we agreed on something!

I actually think if the Cavs wanted to take a flyer on a swing franchise potential player it would be Noel or Mcelmore gulp.

Regardless of the way things panned out Giannis was never in conversation for number one and ten onwards was his barometer and even then it was risky at the time. Sure you could say the same for Bennett, but Noel really did have legitimate number one pick discussion and Mcelmore had an excellent freshman season (not quite Moody comp more on ball creation than that). It was just the exposure they had.

It then becomes malpractice to put up a risky move like that. For example say a bigger more athletic Sengun comes from a legit league and was never in number one pick type convo. It’d be more like Sengun in 2nd div/not 1st that played really well at the meetup pre draft. So you can easily attest it to form or flash in the pan play.

I still wouldn’t take a Giannis type at one (extremely rare to find let alone develop one anyway) with that type of exposure. Now if it was from a legit comp and more playing time with suitable peers on talent than yes for sure. Still highly risky imo

[76ciology]

Yay we agreed on something!

I actually think if the Cavs wanted to take a flyer on a swing franchise potential player it would be Noel or Mcelmore gulp.

Regardless of the way things panned out Giannis was never in conversation for number one and ten onwards was his barometer and even then it was risky at the time. Sure you could say the same for Bennett, but Noel really did have legitimate number one pick discussion and Mcelmore had an excellent freshman season (not quite Moody comp more on ball creation than that). It was just the exposure they had.

It then becomes malpractice to put up a risky move like that. For example say a bigger more athletic Sengun comes from a legit league and was never in number one pick type convo. It’d be more like Sengun in 2nd div/not 1st that played really well at the meetup pre draft. So you can easily attest it to form or flash in the pan play.

I still wouldn’t take a Giannis type at one (extremely rare to find let alone develop one anyway) with that type of exposure. Now if it was from a legit comp and more playing time with suitable peers on talent than yes for sure. Still highly risky imo

I think there’s 2 guys who have the upside to be superstar players in that draft based on specs (not numbers).
-Giannis or Bennett

But you got to have the balls of steel to pick Giannis. Benett is the safer choice between the two.

But everything considered, this is why Oladipo was the right choice for me in that draft. He was balanced between upside, numbers and risk.

But its such an interesting mental model that influenced Ujiri’s future thought process. I believe he’s trying to not miss out on the next Giannis. So he thinks this type of archetype should be valued. And he’s been getting successful hit rates with it..

Yes he flopped on Bruno Cabuclo.
Lucas Noguiera showed some flashes but flopped.
Hit on Siakam
Hit on OG
Hit on Boucher
Likely hit on Barnes

Sure you say, “but he didnt draft them with a top pick.”

I think when he decided to choose Barnes over Suggs, there could be a sign that he may have the guts to pick some guy of this archetype as a top pick over the typical archetype for number pick (a balanced one). This is case to case though as I dont see he’d be picking Barnes over Jalen Green.

[Kobblehead]

Yeah, im with dcasey here. Im surprised you dont have Dipo as top pick.

Dipo does fit the archetype of a number one overall prospect, you usually select a potential franchise player for this. And this is probably where Cavs decided to go after Benett.

Agreed that he fits the archetype and he would have been the right pick, in hindsight.

Him being a junior with subpar career scoring numbers gives me cause for pause, though. Also, both his shotcreating abilities and jumper were question marks that could have gone either way. The only traits I can be 100% sold on, looking at him on paper, were his defense and his ability to move the ball.

Guys like Caldwell-Pope and Porter didn't have the flashes of shotcreating at low volume that Oladipo showed, but both were younger, better shooters, and scored way more at an earlier age than him.

[Kobblehead]

Ya'll remember Tony Mitchell from North Texas? After his freshman year, he looked like a top 5 pick.

Everyone knew he had a sketchy personality and had high bust potential. Then he regressed across the board during his sophomore year and fell to the 2nd round and then never sniffed the NBA.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tony-mitchell-4.html

[Kobblehead]

Who would you rather have at the NBA level between Max Abmas and Tyson Etienne?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/max-abmas-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tyson-etienne-1.html

[Kobblehead]

And looking back, reminded me how good Zeller looked as a prospect.

Yeah, I think Zeller still holds up as a prospect on paper.

I think him being a disappointment is more due to his own lack of development as opposed to a scouting whiff.

He never developed his once-promising perimeter skills, offensively. He was a 75% free throw shooter and never developed a three point shot. Also, he had the high post isolating ability to play on the ball but never developed passing ability.

And then once they stuck him at the 5, he was a lost-cause because he never projected to be able to protect the rim.

It's funny how Zeller and Vonleh (both Indiana PF) both busted for the same reasons. Lack of perimeter skill development to play PF so they were relegated to the 5, where their rim protection woes rendered them ineffective.

I guess the lessons learned here are to not try project offense development on prospects that aren't good defenders.

[76ciology]

And looking back, reminded me how good Zeller looked as a prospect.

Yeah, I think Zeller still holds up as a prospect on paper.

I think him being a disappointment is more due to his own lack of development as opposed to a scouting whiff.

He never developed his once-promising perimeter skills, offensively. He was a 75% free throw shooter and never developed a three point shot. Also, he had the high post isolating ability to play on the ball but never developed passing ability.

And then once they stuck him at the 5, he was a lost-cause because he never projected to be able to protect the rim.

It's funny how Zeller and Vonleh (both Indiana PF) both busted for the same reasons. Lack of perimeter skill development to play PF so they were relegated to the 5, where their rim protection woes rendered them ineffective.

I guess the lessons learned here are to not try project offense development on prospects that aren't good defenders.

I think he would have been a very good player if he played for Brad Stevens. He’s the type of C that Stevens like to use. Mobile, high IQ, plays defense and stretch the floor.

I dont think he was maxed out at Hornets playing alongside Kemba.

Drafting him that high is another example of blindly just looking at the numbers over basketball trend. I have him as third tier among class of draft prospects.

[76ciology]

Who would you rather have at the NBA level between Max Abmas and Tyson Etienne?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/max-abmas-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tyson-etienne-1.html

Abmas.

Etienne’s scoring numbers is inflated. He is carrying more than the scoring load that he can carry.

Abmas has a higher scoring potential.

Who are these two guys? Are they looking to make the upcoming draft?

[Kobblehead]

Who would you rather have at the NBA level between Max Abmas and Tyson Etienne?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/max-abmas-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tyson-etienne-1.html

Abmas.

Etienne’s scoring numbers is inflated. He is carrying more than the scoring load that he can carry.

Abmas has a higher scoring potential.

Who are these two guys? Are they looking to make the upcoming draft?

Yeah, guys that withdraw from the most recent draft. Likely be picked in 30-40 range in the upcoming one. Shooting specialists.

[76ciology]

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/32191787/five-nba-rookies-most-likely-outperform-season?platform=amp#click=https://t.co/SFuxwLRHZ3

[Kobblehead]

My thing with Abmas is that he's listed at 6'1" 165. Meaning he's probably going to measure and weigh in at like 5'11" 155 at the combine. He's a tiny kid.

[Kobblehead]

I feel like Jamison Battle is an interesting shooter to keep an eye on. He's not well rounded, but he has an incredible jumpshot and he's huge (6'7" 225). Reminds me of Jordan Nwora.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jamison-battle-1.html

Had a breakout sophomore season at George Washington and is now transferring to Minnesota for his junior year. If he can maintain or improve his numbers in a major conference, he could prove to be a pretty solid prospect.

[76ciology]

My thing with Abmas is that he's listed at 6'1" 165. Meaning he's probably going to measure and weigh in at like 5'11" 155 at the combine. He's a tiny kid.

I could be wrong but he is also playing in a weak conference right?