[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Wilt Chamberlain

Odinn21 · Post #1 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:00 pm

Hello.

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 10:00 EST).

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;

Spoiler:

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Spoiler:

sansterre · Post #2 » by **sansterre** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:38 pm

Standard methodology: Regular Season value + Playoff value prorated to 82 games (adjusted for injury and smoothed if necessary) using the stats available for both players. Here I used Win Shares and Estimated Impact (weighted 1:2 respectively). Win Shares actually favors Wilt but EI likes Jordan by a good bit.

Here are the results (edited):

1. '91 Jordan
2. '67 Wilt
3. '89 Jordan
4. '90 Jordan
5. '64 Wilt
6. '96 Jordan
7. '88 Jordan
8. '93 Jordan
9. '68 Wilt
10. '92 Jordan
11. '62 Wilt
12. '73 Wilt

Interestingly #s 13 through 18 are all Wilt. I'm not too surprised that Jordan comes out so good here. Jordan is pretty hard to tangle with in a peak vs peak scenario. It's worth noting that Wilt's '62 is #11 on this list. While Win Shares likes that season (2nd), Estimated Impact really doesn't think that Wilt got into his real prime until '64. But it's worth mentioning that Wilt's '62 season would still grade out higher than plenty of seasons from some others we've already looked at.

70sFan · Post #3 » by **70sFan** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:56 pm

Man, this thread will make some people lose their minds!

I'll try to make a longer post later today or tomorrow.

DQuinn1575 · Post #4 » by **DQuinn1575** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:47 pm

sansterre wrote:Standard methodology: Regular Season value + Playoff value prorated to 82 games (adjusted for injury and smoothed if necessary) using the stats available for both players. Here I used Win Shares and Estimated Impact (weighted 1:2 respectively). Win Shares actually favors Wilt but EI likes Jordan by a good bit.

Here are the results:

1. '91 Jordan
2. '67 Wilt
3. '89 Jordan
4. '90 Jordan
5. '64 Wilt
6. '96 Jordan
7. '88 Jordan
8. '94 Jordan
9. '68 Wilt
10. '92 Jordan
11. '73 Wilt
12. '97 Jordan

Interestingly #s 13 through 18 are all Wilt. I'm not too surprised that Jordan comes out so good here. Jordan is pretty hard to tangle with in a peak vs peak scenario. It's worth noting that Wilt's '62 is #13 on this list. While Win Shares likes that season (2nd), Estimated Impact really doesn't think that Wilt got into his real prime until '64. But it's worth mentioning that Wilt's '62 season would still grade out higher than plenty of seasons from some others we've already looked at.

Haven’t done the work yet, but pretty surprised Wilt 72 isn’t on list, and also that 73, when he barely shot, is on the list.

Odinn21 · Post #5 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:11 pm

Well, I'm curious where we'll land on '65 Wilt Chamberlain.

I see quite a bit of similarities between '95 Hakeem Olajuwon and '65 Wilt Chamberlain.
Their regular season impact had issues.
Olajuwon won the title with an all-time great run.
Chamberlain's all-time great performance forced a much better team in Celtics to a game 7 which was decided by 1 point. Chamberlain was 30/31/3 on .575 ts on a team scored 109.2 ppg on .479 ts.
It was arguably the best individual playoff series performance against the Celtics in the '60s.

If we were so appreciative of Olajuwon in the previous thread and had his '95 season in the top 5 with a comparison to Bird, I don't see why we shouldn't consider Wilt's 1965 season in similar fashion. (To be honest, if we don't do such thing, it'll be an capitulation of winning bias. At least for me.)

Dutchball97 · Post #6 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:20 pm

1. Michael Jordan, 1991 - In my opinion the best season ever. Perfect mix of individual excellence and team success.
2. Wilt Chamberlain, 1967 - Funnily enough maybe the only season I can see standing up to MJ's 91 season. Won the title in a pretty dominant fashion, while his defense and playmaking had caught up to his scoring to make him a very complete player at this point.
3. Michael Jordan, 1990 - The 88-90 period shows MJ steamrolling literally everything in his path untill he ran into the Pistons. He got better at handling the Pistons' oppressive defensive tactics every year though and got ridiculously close to beating them with a worse team here.
4. Michael Jordan, 1989 - Very similar to 1990 but ever so slightly worse in the post-season.
5. Wilt Chamberlain, 1964 - Statistically this is one of the most insane seasons ever and while he didn't go through his playmaking transition yet he did seem to take a step up on the defensive side of the ball (we have even more limited stats than usually for defense here but estimated impact seems to "confirm" my suspicion).
6. Micheal Jordan, 1988
7. Wilt Chamberlain, 1962 - places 3 to 7 are part of a cluster of insane statistical seasons where a bit of a stumble happens towards the end. I appreciate the consistency in the play-offs of 1962, which almost made me choose it over 64, but like I said I don't think his defense was quite there yet.
8. Michael Jordan, 1993 - So am I crazy for thinking this season is a bit underrated? It often gets put below the 92 season but at least statistically 93 comes out somewhat better and the most important thing to me here is the distribution of when he did his best in the play-offs. In 92 MJ put up big numbers in the first round and was dominant in the finals but in some pretty close series against the Cavs and Knicks he wasn't at his most dominant. Meanwhile in 93 he coasted slightly during the first and second round sweeps, then did have some trouble against the Knicks but came through stronger than he did in 92 and then went on firing on all cylinders for the finals.
9. Wilt Chamberlain, 1968 - His scoring wasn't as historically efficient as the year before but still pretty much the same level, his defense was still top notch and his playmaking also was amazing. By all means this should've been nearly as good as 67 but it didn't come together in the same way. His struggles at the line were especially prominent this year.In other comparisons this should be closer to the top but compared to his own top 3 seasons and the man with in my mind undoubtedly the best prime ever in MJ this season falls a bit.
10. Michael Jordan, 1992 - Not far off from 93 but like I said there I'm not as fond of his post-season run in 92.
11. Michael Jordan, 1996 - Pretty much the entire bottom half of this list I feel like these seasons are somehow too low but when there are so many amazing seasons between these two players choices have to be made. Statistically it looks better than 92 and 93 but the relatively disappointing finals pushes it down a bit.
12. Michael Jordan, 1997 - I actually went through this list pretty quickly but this last spot was tough, it feels kind of weird that even with 97 on here I still have to leave off 98 in which MJ won both MVP and FMVP. Probably just goes to show how far ahead MJ is of anyone else in terms of prime, maybe LeBron or Kareem can change my mind on that but we'll see. 66 Wilt was a tough cut as well but his play-offs ended a bit unceremoniously and led to him changing his playstyle drastically, while his Lakers years have some impressive stuff but imo not quite competitive with his 66 season or MJ's 97 and 98 seasons.

Dutchball97 · Post #7 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:23 pm

Maybe 65 Wilt can get into the conversation against someone with a smaller amount of elite seasons but I have a hard time seeing a season where he split time between two teams as good as the 4 seasons (67, 64, 62 and 68) I did end up picking for him.

Also just a heads up to sansterre, you have 94 MJ on your list. I assume you mean 93?

homecourtloss · Post #8 » by **homecourtloss** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:38 pm

70sFan wrote:Man, this thread will make some people lose their minds! I'll try to make a longer post later today or tomorrow.

It will. Lots of great discussion that’s come out of the first two matchups and an overarching meta-analysis of what’s most important when valuing seasons for different posters.

Going to tag

coastalmarker99 wrote:.

since I’d like to see his thoughts though I’m not sure if he expressed initial interest in the project.

sansterre · Post #9 » by **sansterre** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:13 pm

I realized that I hadn't adjusted Wilt's numbers for the shorter seasons early in his career. The update bumped '62 to #11 and dropped '73 into #12. The new list is updated in my post.

ceiling raiser · Post #10 » by **ceiling raiser** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:17 pm

As an aside, am I the only person who thinks for Jordan that 1992 is better than 1991, and 1993 *might* also be better?

Having a ring, and another full year in the Triangle definitely helped. The 1993 Bulls didn't reach the same regular season heights, but much of this is because Scottie was a bit burned out from the Olympics.

ty 4191 · Post #11 » by **ty 4191** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:23 pm

Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that all of WIlt's greatest seasons occurred between 1960-1968, and Jordan's 1990-98.

Who played in a stronger league against better overall competition?

Wilt played in leagues where all the best basketball players played on only 8-12 teams. He played 72% (865 of 1205) of his career games against Hall of Fame Centers.

Jordan played in a league where all the best players were spread out across 25-29 teams.

I haven't run this study, but I'd guess that Jordan played, at absolute most, 15% of his games against HOF shooting guards.

Also, international players accounted for only 1-2% of all players in the 90's, so it isn't as if the scouting & talent pool was significantly broader in the 90's versus the 60's.

70sFan · Post #12 » by **70sFan** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:26 pm

I don't have enough time now to finish my list, but I'll start with the order of each player's top seasons.

Jordan:

1991
1990
1989
1992
1993
1988
1996
1997
1998
1987
1985

I think that Jordan definitely peaked in 1989-91 period. His decision making and off-ball tendencies notably improved between 1988 and 1989. I decided to go with consensus 1991 as the first choice (more experience in triangle offense), with 1990 slightly over 1989 due to better RS.

Why not 1992 or 1993? Because his motor on defensive end, along with his athleticism got visibly worse. He became more reliant on his jumpshot and didn't pressure defenses with drives nearly as much.

Why not 1988? Because his defensive style was still a bit wild during that time and he was still learning of how to break down defenses that focused on tunneling him to double teams. Jordan did considerably better job against Pistons in 1989-91 than in 1988.

I thought about putting 1996 higher, but I'm not sure how much of Jordan's change was caused due to stylistic differences and how much was related to him getting less and less athetic.

Some may be surprised of how low 1987 is, but I'm not high on that version of Jordan. He wasn't a good defender yet then, he made a lot of mistakes and gambled too much. On top of that, I don't like his offensive style either - way too high volume and limited playmaking role. Jordan didn't read defenses nearly as well in 1987.

Now, let's talk about Wilt:

1967
1964
1968
1965
1966
1962
1963
1960
1961
1972
1973

Wilt's peak season is quite clearly 1967 to me. It's one of the finest two-way seasons ever. 1964 is a close second - monster carry job with horrible offensive roster. Warriors struggled to use Wilt properly in the finals, but he was a monster on the board and defensively.

Then it gets a bit tougher. 1968 is basically the same level of dominance as 1967 (more defensive oriented RS), but Wilt got injured in playoffs. That said, I think that he was dominant enough in RS and his performance against the Knicks while being injured was certainly impressive.

I had a problem with 1962, 1965 and 1966. I think that Wilt definitely improved around 1964, which is why I don't feel comfortable with taking 1962 ahead of these two - even if this season is more complete. Odinn also convinced me that we should look at 1965 comparably to 1995 Hakeem and I like this comparison. I also like what I've seen from 1965 footage, Wilt seemed to be more aware of his offensive role than ever before.

The rest probably won't be used in this comparison, but 1960 vs 1972 is an interesting debate.

Odinn21 · Post #13 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:22 pm

fpliii wrote:As an aside, am I the only person who thinks for Jordan that 1992 is better than 1991, and 1993 *might* also be better?

Having a ring, and another full year in the Triangle definitely helped. The 1993 Bulls didn't reach the same regular season heights, but much of this is because Scottie was a bit burned out from the Olympics.

1991 is the sweetspot between his later offensive awareness, his earlier defensive motor and explosiveness in general.
So we tend to go for '89-'91 > '92-'93 > '87-'88 & '96-'98 in general as for Jordan's top seasons.

DQuinn1575 · Post #14 » by **DQuinn1575** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:01 pm

ty 4191 wrote:Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that all of WIlt's greatest seasons occurred between 1960-1968, and Jordan's 1990-98.

Who played in a stronger league against better overall competition?

Wilt played in leagues where all the best basketball players played on only 8-12 teams. He played 72% (865 of 1205) of his career games against Hall of Fame Centers.

Jordan played in a league where all the best players were spread out across 25-29 teams.

I haven't run this study, but I'd guess that Jordan played, at absolute most, 15% of his games against HOF shooting guards.

Also, international players accounted for only 1-2% of all players in the 90's, so it isn't as if the scouting & talent pool was significantly broader in the 90's versus the 60's.

So the population of 25-29 in 1960 was 10 million, in 1990 21 million
In 1960 the league was still not fully integrated
1990 there were a couple (as noted not many) Foreign players
In 1960 there were still players going to AAU/NIBL ball instead of the NBA. Most of the top players were in the NBA, but not all
In 1960 there were no early entrants to the NBA.

So the overall talent pool pretty much grew with the increase in teams - I havent done exact numbers, but the first point already more than doubles it, so it has to be relatively close.

sansterre · Post #15 » by **sansterre** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:16 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that all of WIlt's greatest seasons occurred between 1960-1968, and Jordan's 1990-98.

Who played in a stronger league against better overall competition?

Wilt played in leagues where all the best basketball players played on only 8-12 teams. He played 72% (865 of 1205) of his career games against Hall of Fame Centers.

Jordan played in a league where all the best players were spread out across 25-29 teams.

I haven't run this study, but I'd guess that Jordan played, at absolute most, 15% of his games against HOF shooting guards.

Also, international players accounted for only 1-2% of all players in the 90's, so it isn't as if the scouting & talent pool was significantly broader in the 90's versus the 60's.

So the population of 25-29 in 1960 was 10 million, in 1990 21 million
In 1960 the league was still not fully integrated
1990 there were a couple (as noted not many) Foreign players
In 1960 there were still players going to AAU/NIBL ball instead of the NBA. Most of the top players were in the NBA, but not all
In 1960 there were no early entrants to the NBA.

So the overall talent pool pretty much grew with the increase in teams - I havent done exact numbers, but the first point already more than doubles it, so it has to be relatively close.

Also, the dramatic increase in revenue for the league meant that professional basketball was an increasingly lucrative career choice, meaning that not only was the pool greater in pure demographics, but that the parts of the population that could grow to play basketball at a high level were more likely to choose that career path.

coastalmarker99 · Post #16 » by **coastalmarker99** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:10 pm

1 Wilt Chamberlain, 1967 - the perfect season by a player as averaging 21 PPG 29 REB 9 AST 9 blocks for the entire playoffs en route to a title is just insane therefore it has to be number one.

2 Michael Jordan, 1991 - In my opinion, the second-best individual season ever besides Wilt's 1966-1967 as Jordan was at his utter apex as a player and he finally got the title he wanted.

3. Wilt Chamberlain, 1964 - Just an unreal carry job on both sides of the court as he led the NBA in so many statistical categories that season en route to leading one of the worst rosters ever surrounding a superstar to the finals.

4 Wilt Chamberlain, 1962- once again just an unreal carry job on both sides of the court as he set countless unbreakable records in so many statistical categories that season en route to nearly ending the Celtics dynasty if not for Sam Jones.

5 Michael Jordan, 1990 - was utterly excellent from start to finish that season and was maybe a Pippen migraine away from winning his first title.

6 Michael Jordan, 1989 - He was once again great from start to finish as he was in 1990 but he was ever so slightly worse in the post-season

7 Michael Jordan, 1993 - had one of the GOAT finals and was superior in the postseason compared to his 1992 self.

8 Michael Jordan, 1992 - Not far off from his incredible 1993 playoff run

9 Jordan 1996 - Statistically and teamwise it is one of the GOAT years by an individual player in NBA history but his relatively disappointing finals compared to his usual finals self pushes it down a bit for me.

10 Wilt Chamberlain 1968 - Not far off from his incredible 1966-1967 season as he once again led the NBA in countless statistical categories such as blocks and assists and field goal percentage but his disappointing loss against Boston drags this year down otherwise this would be in my top 3.

11 Michael Jordan, 1997 once again had an incredible season both statistically and teamwise en route to his fifth title and he should have in my eyes won the regular season MVP over Malone that season.

12 Wilt Chamberlain, 1966 once again had an incredible season both statistically and teamwise as he led the 76ers to the top of the east but in the playoffs, he just didn't get the help he needed from his teammates to beat the Celtics.

homecourtloss · Post #17 » by **homecourtloss** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:26 pm

1. Jordan, 1991 - Contention for GOAT season. Jordan’s playmaking abilities and offensive awareness grew while his athleticism remained. TOV economy was incredible
2. Wilt, 1967 - Also in contention for GOAT season. Played differently, chsnged shot selection, played more of a power game, scored or was fouled, FT% wasn’t good unfortunately, dominated defensively and was a very good playmaker.
3. Jordan, 1990 - Very close to 1991 Jordan and his two best seasons even if 1990 didnt have the same polish in offensive repertoire or balance on that fadeaway jump-shot.
4. Jordan, 1989 - Close to 1990 Jordan and 1988 is close as well.
5. Wilt, 1964 - Had a hard time picking this over 1988 Jordan since 1989 and 1988 Jordan are very close, but this crazy one of a kind season deserves a spot.
6. Jordan, 1988
7. Wilt, 1968 - Shame he got injured in the playoffs
8. Wilt, 1962 - Close to 1964 Wilt
9. Michael Jordan, 1993 - Better turnover economy than 1992 with a lower FTr (didn’t get as many calls in the regular season nor in the postseason) on a tired team
10. Michael Jordan, 1992
11. Michael Jordan, 1996 - “Pretty much the entire bottom half of this list I feel like these seasons are somehow too low but when there are so many amazing seasons between these two players choices have to be made. Statistically it looks better than 92 and 93 but the relatively disappointing finals pushes it down a bit.” [Quoting Dutchball”
12. Wilt, 1965 - Too close to those 1962, 1964 seasons to ignore

countryboy667 · Post #18 » by **countryboy667** » Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:51 pm

Amusing comparison, just as long as you remember--and yes, I know basketball is a team game--that one on one Wilt would totally destroy Jordan in every instance--bigger, stronger, just as fast and agile, in my opinion, just a better pure athlete.

migya · Post #19 » by **migya** » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:19 pm

countryboy667 wrote:Amusing comparison, just as long as you remember--and yes, I know basketball is a team game--that one on one Wilt would totally destroy Jordan in every instance--bigger, stronger, just as fast and agile, in my opinion, just a better pure athlete.

Chamberlain, like every other elite Center, could outplay Jordan in situations where height and strength have the advantage, like rebounding and near the basket. Jordan on the perimeter obviously outplays Chamberlain, like all elite guards would.

Max123 · Post #20 » by **Max123** » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:05 pm

countryboy667 wrote:Amusing comparison, just as long as you remember--and yes, I know basketball is a team game--that one on one Wilt would totally destroy Jordan in every instance--bigger, stronger, just as fast and agile, in my opinion, just a better pure athlete.

Just as agile?

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