Rotation at the 3 & 4

[payitforward]

We know who our starters/backups are at both guard spots.

At the 5, we have questions we just can't answer right now:

How many minutes can Gafford handle? Whatever the answer is, that's how many minutes we want to play him!

When will Bryant return, & will he be the player he was? If Bryant comes back strong, we know he will play heavy minutes, maybe take over as starter.

We also know that Montrezl Harrell will get substantial minutes at the 5 -- especially (obviously) before Bryant is back.

The 3 & 4 are a bit more complicated:

At SF, we know that KCP will be a significant part of the rotation, & we assume that both Kispert & Deni will have their chances to step up. But, it's not at all obvious who will/should start at the 3.

At the 4, it's hard to imagine that Rui isn't at least penciled in to start -- permanent ink seems more likely. & one would expect him to get @30 minutes a game, as he did his first two years. Only our having a new coach could make this in any sense an open question.

The above leaves 3 guys center stage to discuss: Davis Bertans, Kyle Kuzma, & Montrezl Harrell. I think...

...that Kuzma should play mostly at the 3.

...that Harrell should play some minutes at the 4 (esp. once Bryant is back) -- in order to get as many minutes as possible for him, given how productive he is.

...that Davis Bertans should be traded, but if not, or until then, he should play where he's always played -- at the 4.

All subject to change, of course, based on results. That's what I think, but...

What do you think?

[doclinkin]

Okay I will take my response here:

Bertans has never played the 3. Rui has never played the 3. .

Fascinating. I suppose "never" is at least equal to:

484:15 minutes of Bertans + Hachimura + center in 19/20
plus
394:51 of Beal + Bertans + Hachimura + center
and
379:12 of Russ + Bertans + Hachimura + center


Hmm. Never knew you could quantify "never". If I had to guess I would have thought it was an infinitely larger amount. (Or smaller? )

The position of Forward has changed over the years. Some of the roles remain the same: primary rebounding, interior defense, scoring inside the arc. However the PF has become required to be a mobile face-up player. Whichever non-center is on the interior more often, banging with bigs and fighting for rebounds, that is the power forward position. The player who is more perimeter oriented with occasional forays into the middle but mostly providing space by playing in the wings or running patterns like a guard, that guy is the 'small' forward.

The name is misleading. It used to be that the taller player was reliably sure to be the Power Forward, this is how the position is differentiated in stat sheets, play by play and box scores. So one could say with condescending and patronizing metaphors that a particular player has never played the small forward spot because they are taller than the other guys on court with them, and the stat nerds courtside marking in the play by play sheet inked them in that way.

But nowadays in an era of stretch forwards and even stretch 5's and 'positionless' basketball, things get a little more fuzzy. It would be more correct to say Perimeter Forward and Interior Forward. Squinting at a mislabeled stat sheet after the game, how do you know which role a player took? Well you can look at their shot charts for one thing. A guy who takes 70% of their shots from 3 is likely playing the perimeter role more often than a guy who is about 50/50 inside and out.

Now the fun thing about having a 6'10" guy who plays the perimeter is that other coaches often fall into the same trap as the stat nerds. They send their interior defender chasing after the guy running outside patterns. This opens up the interior for other shorter guys to get inside and play in the paint where their bigger brothers don't usually let them have any fun. Granted, it does help if you confuse the opponent by playing only one tall guy so they don't make the choice to leave their interior defender back at home where they may guard the inside, and live with their small forward chasing the beanpole sniper to the outside.

We happen to have a handful of tall guys who shoot from outside though. Bertans, Bryant, Kuzma, heck even Isaiah Todd and Jay Huff (if Huff somehow makes it through training camp on the squad), all are 6'10" and up. You can throw the 6'9" Avdija and 6'8" Hachimura in this category as well. All of these tall dudes have some face-up skills and can play effective basketball further outside the paint than you might traditionally expect given their height.

There will be times when it will be smart to find a role for each of them, even if it means they are sharing the floor with other tall guys who shoot from outside. At that point, eh, let the scorekeeper nerd decide what he wants to call them, which one is small and which one is power matters less to the win/loss record than if they can run the plays on the court and guard the opponent.

[doclinkin]

The 3 & 4 are a bit more complicated:

At SF, we know that KCP will be a significant part of the rotation, & we assume that both Kispert & Deni will have their chances to step up. But, it's not at all obvious who will/should start at the 3.

At the 4, it's hard to imagine that Rui isn't at least penciled in to start -- permanent ink seems more likely. & one would expect him to get @30 minutes a game, as he did his first two years. Only our having a new coach could make this in any sense an open question.

Rui has been pencilled in at PF since he has been the strongest guy on the floor at either forward spot. Brooks' rotations have never really been terribly creative with the PF spot, 'big and strong' is as imaginative as he gets.

With so much depth at forward, I expect we will see players running out there in various configurations, whether they are traditional power forwards or no. Given the safety net of a guy like Daniel Gafford in the background, we may take some risks by playing less for power at that spot.

My expectation on Wes, though it may be true of any new head coach, is that early on he will lean heavily on whichever players are quickest to understand his system and put it in motion. Rui comes across as an earnest guy eager to please, but his depth of experience of basketball is limited and therefore his slower understanding of the nuances of team play may put him behind players who have a deeper history.

At the forward spots this tends to give an edge to players like Bertans, KCP, Deni, Kuzma, Kispert, maybe even Anthony GIll, players for whom situational reads are instinctive. Syncopation and team synergy will be at a premium as the best way to maximize the strength of this roster. We won't out-talent high level opponents, we will have to out-smart them.

That said, Rui's superior man-on defense is notable, and Wes' philosophy has been to put players in position to do what they do well. When he figures out how best to play Rui (as opposed to Rui puzzling how to work for him) then I fully expect Rui to earn heavy minutes at the interior forward spot.

[doclinkin]

The above leaves 3 guys center stage to discuss: Davis Bertans, Kyle Kuzma, & Montrezl Harrell

Montrezl Harrell is a Center unless and until he adds range to his game and an ability/willingness to guard, well, anyone. Especially away from the basket. He wants to be an all-star though so maybe he adds to his game. Otherwise:

In the vein of "putting players in position to do what they do well": We have few players who do anything at an elite level. My belief is: If you have those players you should find a way to play them, and feature the things they do better than almost anyone. So the question is what are our assets?

Elite skills:
Ballhandlers:
Beal + Dinwiddie: drawing fouls.

Off-guards:
Efficient 3pt shooting (KCP, Neto, Holiday have all shot above 40% from 3)

Forwards:
Bertans: quick touch catch-and-shoot 3's from motion.
Rui: man-to-man defense against players 6'7" and up.

Centers:
Harrell: inside scoring out of the pick and roll, catching the ball when in motion
Gafford: defensive activity (vs back-ups?), catch and finish off aerial plays.
Bryant: efficient scoring from 2, standstill 3's when unguarded.

These are the 'unstoppables' on the team. Or leastways the skills we have that are better than most. Whatever line-up or plays I draw in my head, I'm trying to exploit these skills.

We can argue about Bertans, I know many want to ship him, but his +/- effect has been pronounced. The front office apparently fetishizes the adjusted +/- stats. This was why they landed both Neto and Holiday. It was why they paid Bertans when his contract came due (he was the clubhouse leader on +/- on the Spurs as well). He is the 3rd highest paid player on the team. For all his shortcomings as a rebounder, and his lack of side to side footspeed on defense, he still makes the players around him better.

It is my contention that Brook's stubborn defiance of the stats, and misplaying the young talent handed to him, were a large part of what got him fired. When his staff was cleared out, we retained Dr Dean Oliver, the godfather of BBall stat analysis, Mr Four Factors.

The #1 most important of Dr Dean's Four Factors is Shooting. By his calculations this amounts to 40% of the win/loss record. Playing Bertans makes everyone else shoot better. (Turnovers 25%, Rebounding 20%, Free Throws 15%). Yes the opponents also shoot better with him on the floor, and rebound better as well. Despite that we still end up winning those match-ups.

So. If we play Bertans to take advantage of his elite outside shooting, we need to make up the difference in Opponent shooting % (forcing misses) and rebounding (when we force misses, and of our long riccochets from outside shooting). To me this means instead of shipping him out, we play him next to on-ball pressure (to prevent his man from getting the ball) and intimidating interior defense (in case his man beats him off the dribble or they force a mismatch on the switch). Given that Gafford's stamina and effectiveness are unknown and he may have a short rotation I figure we maximize the benefit of Bertan's floor stretching shots when we play Gafford behind him, play Rui next to him to take the tougher forward match-up, and pick any of our solid defenders on the exterior, plus a ball handler to penetrate and dish.

[penbeast0]

If Bryant stretches the floor you may be able to play him with Trez at PF. I want to see Bryant, Trez, and Bertans get minutes because (with the exception of Beal and maybe Dinwiddie), they are the guys who have shown some outstanding offensive ability. Rui hasn't exactly been a stopper defensively though we all are hoping, nor have Kuzma or Deni (so far), and none of them have shown close to the offensive ability of the three mentioned first. But a Bryant/Harrell/Bertans frontline is not going to be pretty on the defensive side so I'm hoping Gafford, Rui, and Avdija (and Kuzma) all end up as good defenders so we can mix and match.

But yeah, I think it's going to be who understands the new system best and who is healthy that determines early minutes and early play and health will determine later minutes.

[Dat2U]

PFs
Bertans, Kuzma, Hachimura, Avdija, Gill, Todd
SFs
Kispert

Bertans, Kuzma, Hachimura & Avdija can all slide down in spot minutes to SF but I wouldn't consider SF the primary position for any of them. Bertans due to his spacing is the PF I'd lean getting the most minutes there, followed by Avdija due to his versatility on the defensive end.

Obviously KCP gets major run at the 3 as well but he and Beal are the only legit 2s on the roster.

I assume a trade is coming but until then:

PF Hachimura, Kuzma, Avdija
SF KCP, Bertans, Kispert

I have no desire to see slow footed Cs like Bryant or Harrell struggle to guard anyone on the perimeter. I doubt we'll see either spend more than a few moments this year at the PF position. Especially when there are 6 PFs already on the roster.