[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird

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[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#1 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:00 pm

Hello.

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 10:00 EST).

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;
Spoiler:
1. Bill Russell vs. Magic Johnson
2. Hakeem Olajuwon vs. Larry Bird
3. Michael Jordan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
4. LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Shaquille O'Neal

6. LeBron James vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. Michael Jordan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
8. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird
9. Tim Duncan vs. Magic Johnson
10. Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain

11. Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird
12. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
13. LeBron James vs. Bill Russell
14. Tim Duncan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
15. Magic Johnson vs. Shaquille O'Neal

16. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Bill Russell
17. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
18. Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird
19. LeBron James vs. Wilt Chamberlain
20. Michael Jordan vs. Tim Duncan

21. LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan
22. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Wilt Chamberlain
23. Tim Duncan vs. Larry Bird
24. Bill Russell vs. Shaquille O'Neal
25. Magic Johnson vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

26. LeBron James vs. Larry Bird
27. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Magic Johnson
28. Michael Jordan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
29. Bill Russell vs. Tim Duncan
30. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

31. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Shaquille O'Neal
32. LeBron James vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
33. Bill Russell vs. Larry Bird
34. Michael Jordan vs. Magic Johnson
35. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Tim Duncan

36. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Larry Bird
37. Tim Duncan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
38. Bill Russell vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
39. LeBron James vs. Magic Johnson
40. Michael Jordan vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

41. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Larry Bird
42. LeBron James vs. Shaquille O'Neal
43. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Magic Johnson
44. Tim Duncan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
45. Michael Jordan vs. Bill Russell


---

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The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#2 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:04 pm

Well, this is going to be quite a challenge. :lol:
Though I expect Bird to win slightly due to better reliability.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#3 » by falcolombardi » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:02 pm

wonder which one will be prefered between 2000 shaq and 86 bird

i feel for all of bird portability or versatility, peak shaq is just as good of a fit in a great team and his defense at least this season was more valuable
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#4 » by No-more-rings » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:10 pm

falcolombardi wrote:wonder which one will be prefered between 2000 shaq and 86 bird

i feel for all of bird portability or versatility, peak shaq is just as good of a fit in a great team and his defense at least this season was more valuable

Shaq's peak is pretty universally considered better. In fact probably every version between 00-02 is better, since he was mostly the same guy in the playoffs which was a level that Bird never reached.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#5 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:36 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:wonder which one will be prefered between 2000 shaq and 86 bird

i feel for all of bird portability or versatility, peak shaq is just as good of a fit in a great team and his defense at least this season was more valuable

Shaq's peak is pretty universally considered better. In fact probably every version between 00-02 is better, since he was mostly the same guy in the playoffs which was a level that Bird never reached.

At the same time, his RS performance was consistently worse than what Bird did in 1984-88 period (outside of 2000 of course).
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#6 » by sansterre » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:45 pm

Just some general stats (this is not a submission):

Regular Season:

Win Shares: Shaq has the two top seasons (00 and 94), Bird has the next four, Shaq has the next 3, Bird has the next two.
VORP: Shaq has the #1 season, but Bird has the next five.
Estimated Impact: Bird has four of the top six (#s 2, 4, 5 and 6) but it's fairly even after that.

Playoffs:

WS/G: Bird has #1, 4 and 7, and everything else in the top 12 is Shaq.
VORP/G: Bird has #3, 4 and 9, and the rest of the top 11 is Shaq.
Estimated Impact/G: Bird has #1, 4, 5 and 10, and the rest of the top 12 is Shaq.

At least within the limits of these metrics, I think it's safe to say that Shaq has a considerable edge in the postseason.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#7 » by No-more-rings » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:58 pm

70sFan wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:wonder which one will be prefered between 2000 shaq and 86 bird

i feel for all of bird portability or versatility, peak shaq is just as good of a fit in a great team and his defense at least this season was more valuable

Shaq's peak is pretty universally considered better. In fact probably every version between 00-02 is better, since he was mostly the same guy in the playoffs which was a level that Bird never reached.

At the same time, his RS performance was consistently worse than what Bird did in 1984-88 period (outside of 2000 of course).

Right well, I don't see why that should take precedence. He was still a 28/12 type player on good efficiency and solid defense. He wasn't chopped liver.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#8 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:07 pm

sansterre wrote:Playoffs:

WS/G: Bird has #1, 4 and 7, and everything else in the top 12 is Shaq.
VORP/G: Bird has #3, 4 and 9, and the rest of the top 11 is Shaq.
Estimated Impact/G: Bird has #1, 4, 5 and 10, and the rest of the top 12 is Shaq.

At least within the limits of these metrics, I think it's safe to say that Shaq has a considerable edge in the postseason.

One important thing to consider, Bird probably had a tougher ps competition than O'Neal.
The Eastern Conference in the '80s was pretty much like the Western Conference in Shaq's and Timmy's time but on top of that Bird had to play against another historic team in the NBA Finals instead of rather weak NBA Finals teams.

Making a rate of the amount of help they got and the competition they faced, as weirdly as it'll sound, Bird's situation wasn't as fortunate as Shaq's.

Btw, I don't think Bird was a proper postseason force until 1984. His offensive game wasn't resilient in general, certainly not on the same level as peak Shaq. But from 1984 to that ECF series against the Pistons in 1988, he was a proper postseason weapon.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#9 » by sansterre » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:18 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
sansterre wrote:Playoffs:

WS/G: Bird has #1, 4 and 7, and everything else in the top 12 is Shaq.
VORP/G: Bird has #3, 4 and 9, and the rest of the top 11 is Shaq.
Estimated Impact/G: Bird has #1, 4, 5 and 10, and the rest of the top 12 is Shaq.

At least within the limits of these metrics, I think it's safe to say that Shaq has a considerable edge in the postseason.

One important thing to consider, Bird probably had a tougher ps competition than O'Neal.
The Eastern Conference in the '80s was pretty much like the Western Conference in Shaq's and Timmy's time but on top of that Bird had to play against another historic team in the NBA Finals instead of rather weak NBA Finals teams.

Making a rate of the amount of help they got and the competition they faced, as weirdly as it'll sound, Bird's situation wasn't as fortunate as Shaq's.

Btw, I don't think Bird was a proper postseason force until 1984. His offensive game wasn't resilient in general, certainly not on the same level as peak Shaq. But from 1984 to that ECF series against the Pistons in 1988, he was a proper postseason weapon.

And it is probable that Bird's style of assists (high efficiency, low time on the ball) are undervalued by the box score metrics.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#10 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:24 pm

sansterre wrote:And it is probable that Bird's style of assists (high efficiency, low time on the ball) are undervalued by the box score metrics.

Yeah, Bird's facilitating abilities are underrated in box numbers. You got that head on with assist numbers, also if you recall, I made a case about Bird's turnovers not being that hurtful. 3 turnovers from Bird didn't hurt just as much as 3 turnovers from a low post threat like Hakeem, Shaq, Timmy and Kareem. That assist/turnover nature of Bird's game isn't helpful towards his BPM numbers.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#11 » by sansterre » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:26 pm

Odinn21 wrote:One important thing to consider, Bird probably had a tougher ps competition than O'Neal.
The Eastern Conference in the '80s was pretty much like the Western Conference in Shaq's and Timmy's time but on top of that Bird had to play against another historic team in the NBA Finals instead of rather weak NBA Finals teams.

Inasmuch as we're looking at winning that's fair. But if we're looking at opposing defenses it's a little more complicated. And overall it looks like Shaq played tougher shooting defenses:

Shaq '94-98: 2217 minutes, -0.65% Opponent TS allowed
Shaq '99-08: 5626 minutes, -1.79% Opponent TS allowed

Bird '80-84: 2813 minutes, -1.35% Opponent TS allowed
Bird '85-92: 4073 minutes, -0.52% Opponent TS allowed

That '99-08 stretch for Shaq was brutal.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#12 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:39 pm

sansterre wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:One important thing to consider, Bird probably had a tougher ps competition than O'Neal.
The Eastern Conference in the '80s was pretty much like the Western Conference in Shaq's and Timmy's time but on top of that Bird had to play against another historic team in the NBA Finals instead of rather weak NBA Finals teams.

Inasmuch as we're looking at winning that's fair. But if we're looking at opposing defenses it's a little more complicated. And overall it looks like Shaq played tougher shooting defenses:

That '99-08 stretch for Shaq was brutal.

I wasn't saying as solely defense though. When we look at NRtg rankings within a season, and also relative NRtg numbers among top 5 and top 10 teams (to smooth out NRtg scale changing over time), Bird played against tougher competition.

I generally look at NRtg gaps between two teams in matchup because after a certain NRtg gap, looking at offense or defense doesn't really matter. For instance the Grizzlies were a top 5 defense in 2005, and they were trounced by the Suns which had nearly 5 NRtg gap over the Grizzlies.

I use tough competition as tough to beat, not as tough to score or assist on.

This is not to say you're wrong btw. Thanks for the info. I was just stating my position.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#13 » by falcolombardi » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:48 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
sansterre wrote:Playoffs:

WS/G: Bird has #1, 4 and 7, and everything else in the top 12 is Shaq.
VORP/G: Bird has #3, 4 and 9, and the rest of the top 11 is Shaq.
Estimated Impact/G: Bird has #1, 4, 5 and 10, and the rest of the top 12 is Shaq.

At least within the limits of these metrics, I think it's safe to say that Shaq has a considerable edge in the postseason.

One important thing to consider, Bird probably had a tougher ps competition than O'Neal.
The Eastern Conference in the '80s was pretty much like the Western Conference in Shaq's and Timmy's time but on top of that Bird had to play against another historic team in the NBA Finals instead of rather weak NBA Finals teams.

Making a rate of the amount of help they got and the competition they faced, as weirdly as it'll sound, Bird's situation wasn't as fortunate as Shaq's.

Btw, I don't think Bird was a proper postseason force until 1984. His offensive game wasn't resilient in general, certainly not on the same level as peak Shaq. But from 1984 to that ECF series against the Pistons in 1988, he was a proper postseason weapon.


bird played 2 of his finals vs undermanned rockets teams, which were not pushovers, specially 86 rockets but were not juggernaut either

and 3 of his 5 finals came in the period between sixers being great(80-83) and pistons being great (87-90)


in that period his conference was not THAT strong as it was mostly moncrief bucks that while really strong were only 1 great team and not quite a juggernaut (although i may be underating them)

not to say his competition was weak, just not THAT strong to be above the competition shaq faced in his prime imo

and while it is true thst his rivals finals were tougher than shaq east rivals, that was only when he faced the lakers and he went 1-2 there so he didnt dominated them

i hope i am not coming across as sleeping or downplaying bird, just pointing out i dont think he has a competition faced or beat over shaq
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#14 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:11 pm

falcolombardi wrote:bird played 2 of his finals vs undermanned rockets teams, which were not pushovers, specially 86 rockets but were not juggernaut either

1981 Rockets weren't a great team, indeed. 1986 Rockets were but they were not historically good of course.

falcolombardi wrote:and 3 of his 5 finals came in the period between sixers being great(80-83) and pistons being great (87-90)

This doesn't make much sense. Because the Celtics got there by beating the Sixers. It wasn't like the Celtics were entirely a placeholder between the two other great teams.

Also that argument can be turned against O'Neal as 3 of 4 his finals in LA came in the period the Spurs were struggling with injuries.
2000- Duncan himself missed the playoffs.
2001- Derek Anderson, team's #2 scoring option was hurt.
2002- David Robinson was hurt.
I mean, if we're to go down that road... Also pointing out how the Lakers beat the Spurs in 2001 and 2002 wouldn't help because the Celtics beat the Sixers, the Bucks and the Pistons pretty similarly from 1984 to 1987.

falcolombardi wrote:in that period his conference was not THAT strong as it was mostly moncrief bucks that while really strong were only 1 great team and not quite a juggernaut (although i may be underating them)

Maybe you're underrating them because how much Bird lifted to the Celtics over the other teams in the conference. The Western Conference bar the Lakers was a joke and the EC was a lot stronger.

falcolombardi wrote:not to say his competition was weak, just not THAT strong to be above the competition shaq faced in his prime imo

I said probably in my initial statement. I don't think I sounded like there's no comparison.

falcolombardi wrote:and while it is true thst his rivals finals were tougher than shaq east rivals, that was only when he faced the lakers and he went 1-2 there so he didnt dominated them

And this is where my help they got / competition they faced ratio comes into play. I don't see anyone in Bird's place dominating the '84/'85/'87 Lakers like the Lakers dominated the Sixers in 2001 and the Nets in 2002.

falcolombardi wrote:i hope i am not coming across as sleeping or downplaying bird, just pointing out i dont think he has a competition faced or beat over shaq

Like I said, I said Bird probably had a tougher competition. I didn't say Bird was going up against a Goliath compared to O'Neal.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#15 » by falcolombardi » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:38 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:bird played 2 of his finals vs undermanned rockets teams, which were not pushovers, specially 86 rockets but were not juggernaut either

1981 Rockets weren't a great team, indeed. 1986 Rockets were but they were not historically good of course.

falcolombardi wrote:and 3 of his 5 finals came in the period between sixers being great(80-83) and pistons being great (87-90)

This doesn't make much sense. Because the Celtics got there by beating the Sixers. It wasn't like the Celtics were entirely a placeholder between the two other great teams.

Also that argument can be turned against O'Neal as 3 of 4 his finals in LA came in the period the Spurs were struggling with injuries.
2000- Duncan himself missed the playoffs.
2001- Derek Anderson, team's #2 scoring option was hurt.
2002- David Robinson was hurt.
I mean, if we're to go down that road... Also pointing out how the Lakers beat the Spurs in 2001 and 2002 wouldn't help because the Celtics beat the Sixers, the Bucks and the Pistons pretty similarly from 1984 to 1987.

falcolombardi wrote:in that period his conference was not THAT strong as it was mostly moncrief bucks that while really strong were only 1 great team and not quite a juggernaut (although i may be underating them)

Maybe you're underrating them because how much Bird lifted to the Celtics over the other teams in the conference. The Western Conference bar the Lakers was a joke and the EC was a lot stronger.

falcolombardi wrote:not to say his competition was weak, just not THAT strong to be above the competition shaq faced in his prime imo

I said probably in my initial statement. I don't think I sounded like there's no comparison.

falcolombardi wrote:and while it is true thst his rivals finals were tougher than shaq east rivals, that was only when he faced the lakers and he went 1-2 there so he didnt dominated them

And this is where my help they got / competition they faced ratio comes into play. I don't see anyone in Bird's place dominating the '84/'85/'87 Lakers like the Lakers dominated the Sixers in 2001 and the Nets in 2002.

falcolombardi wrote:i hope i am not coming across as sleeping or downplaying bird, just pointing out i dont think he has a competition faced or beat over shaq

Like I said, I said Bird probably had a tougher competition. I didn't say Bird was going up against a Goliath compared to O'Neal.


sixers had a sizable drop in 84, they went from a +7 SRS im their championship season to +2 SRS, the bounced a bit in 85 to +4 then back to +2 in 86. their 80-82 seasons had been a +5 ~ +7

bad boys pistons didnt take off until 87, their 86 version was a good +1 SRS team, +3 in 87 when celtics beat them, then +7 in 88 when they beat celtics

the detroit and sixers teams celtics beat to make the finals were not that strong compared to before or after
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#16 » by LA Bird » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:27 pm

Will be adding explanations later but this is my current list

1. 2000 Shaq
2. 2001 Shaq
3. 1986 Bird
4. 1984 Bird
5. 2002 Shaq
6. 1987 Bird
7. 1985 Bird
8. 2003 Shaq
9. 1988 Bird
10. 1999 Shaq
11. 1998 Shaq
12. 1995 Shaq

Edit: Added explanations

Other than better defense in 00 and worse defense in 99, I have 98-03 Shaq roughly around the same level. The main difference comes down to availability and I usually don't penalize players for missed RS games too heavily if they have a long playoffs run to make up for it. 2000 Shaq was a very strong post defender and rim protector but I don't think he was ever truly a DPOY level player overall because of his weakness away from the basket. The Lakers had a massive -8 defensive turnaround in 2000 but they were an elite defensive team even without Shaq that season so I think Phil Jackson doesn't get enough credit for the defensive improvement. Still, prime Shaq (except 99) was a better defensive player than 84-88 Bird and he wasn't too far behind on offense especially when it comes to the playoffs where Bird had problems from time to time. Shaq only missed 1 game in the 99 season but that is offset by low playing time and career low block rates which coincided with poor defensive FG% at the rim and overall DRtg so while the offense was excellent, the defense was not. It was close between 83 Bird vs 95 Shaq for the last spot but I ultimately gave the spot to Shaq because of better playoffs performance.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#17 » by Colbinii » Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:25 am

After much deliberation and support from my significant other I will indeed enter into the abyss of serious basketball discussion.

Two polar opposite players here, one arguably the greatest basketball savant we have ever seen in Larry Bird and the other--as much slander as he often gets for not "achieving" his potential--one of the greatest basketball players and forces we have ever seen. I do not characterize Shaq's longevity as anything extraordinary but when he was at his best, and this includes most of his prime, he was simply a force matched once in NBA History [Howdy Wilt!]. Larry Legend falls in a similar boat, albeit different type of floating transportation vehicle, as he doesn't have a plethora of seasons to choose from but my oh my was he a marvel from beginning to end of his career.

1. 1986 Larry Bird
2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
3. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal

These are the cream-of-the-crop seasons and I am thankful I get to live through that season right now in the midwestern United States--if you haven't had fresh sweet corn you are missing out (and don't forget the butter!). Larry Bird in 1986 had it all, between his teammates, his shooting and IQ complimented by a healthy and functioning body it made him, arguably, the greatest basketball player ever. I put both 2000 and 2001 Shaquille O'Neal in this tier as well, but unlike other players [specifically big men] who had a clear and decisive defensive advantage over Bird--Shaq simply doesn't possess that advantage here. On the other hand, Shaq put together two of the most dominant post-season displays of sheer offensive dominance we have ever seen.

Larry's offensive decisiveness, his ability to be 2 or 3 steps ahead of everyone else during this era offensive [Sans Magic] and shooting prowess puts him ever-so-slightly ahead of Shaq and his utter (I need to leave the Midwest!) dominance within 6-7 feet of the hoop.

With regards to 1984 Bird not being here--He wasn't the same shooter, or at least wasn't used nearly as effectively on the court--and I attribute that to him and his growth as a basketball player to becoming a player who took a stride in this season head and shoulders above his other GOAT level seasons.

4. 1985 Larry Bird
5. 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
6. 1987 Larry Bird
7. 2003 Shaquille O'Neal
8. 1984 Larry Bird

This is hard.

It doesn't actually make much sense to put 1985 Bird over 1984 Bird statistically--sansterre gasp can be heard around the globe--but hear me out== 1984 was one of the easier paths to the NBA Finals in terms of SRS, Bill Cartwright and Bernard King took them to 7 games, and the 1985 Celtics simply couldn't overcome the (dare I say) superior player in Magic in 1985 in comparison to 1984. I think the same for 1987 Bird--convince me otherwise.

RE: Shaq

Yeah he was **** good, we know. He declined after 2001, not much but enough where the decline was both noticeable and propelled by a diesel-fueled engine--at least he had the MPG to get to Miami and the fumes got the engine back to Phoenix.

9. 1999 Shaquille O'Neal
10. 1998 Shaquille O'Neal
11. 1988 Larry Bird
12. 1983 Larry Bird

The older Bird had some physical issues which kept him from being "that guy" but still was terrific in the regular season and good-to-great in the post-season. His noticeable drop is important here, as the younger Shaq was simply a better player in the post-season by a significant margin, enough to make up for the regular season discrepancy in games and even production--though the production gap really isn't significant or noticeable.

Younger Bird compares less favorable, slightly, as mentioned above doesn't have the same feel or ability to fully apply himself to games in every moment as he did later in his career.

This really goes to show how much I value the 5 or 6 year primes of guys, as 98-03 Shaq and 83-88 Bird are the 6 seasons chosen. This is one of the more obvious comparisons to me of "Look at these 6 years of each, figure out an order" versus some other players in this project whom I am looking forward to speaking about [Kareem, LeBron and Duncan].
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#18 » by Odinn21 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:21 am

Colbinii wrote:8. 1984 Larry Bird

This is hard.

It doesn't actually make much sense to put 1985 Bird over 1984 Bird statistically--sansterre gasp can be heard around the globe--but hear me out== 1984 was one of the easier paths to the NBA Finals in terms of SRS, Bill Cartwright and Bernard King took them to 7 games, and the 1985 Celtics simply couldn't overcome the (dare I say) superior player in Magic in 1985 in comparison to 1984. I think the same for 1987 Bird--convince me otherwise.

First, glad to have you back! Also please give my regards and thanks to your significant other. :D

Very surprised to see 1984 Bird that low.

SRS doesn't capture the road the Celtics played through in 1984 playoffs because the high and low points of the scale wasn't as far as we're used to.

The Knicks were 3rd in SRS/NRtg with +3.8. I mean it's not exactly Bird's fault that #3 team in the season (also #1 defense) didn't have 5+ values in MoV derivatives.
Also, it wasn't like Bird had a performance issue against them. He was 30/11/7/3/1 on .649 ts (+10.6 rts) in the series, he had a 39/12/10/3 on .666 ts game 7. This part about the Knicks is a bit like blaming LeBron James for the Celtics series in 2012 and saying Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett took them to 7 games.

Moving onto Magic comparison; solely looking at the Finals series is not the best way to do a comparison because the Western Conference was a joke and Bird and the Celtics were pretty banged up until the finals compared to Magic and the Lakers.

Bird played 572 minutes (40.9 per game) against the EC in 1985. NRtg rankings of his opponents; 18th, 6th, 4th.
Magic played 452 minutes (34.8 per game) against the WC in 1985. NRtg rankings of his opponents; 16th, 5th, 7th.

Bird played 761 minutes (44.8 per game) against the EC in 1987. NRtg rankings of his opponents; 9th, 5th, 6th.
Magic played 430 minutes (35.8 per game) against the WC in 1987. NRtg rankings of his opponents; 14th, 16th, 10th.

On top of all that, not necessarily better but the Lakers usually had deeper rotations (it was pretty obvious in 1987 but closer in 1985 of course).

---

Also, do you account for the missed games? 2003 O'Neal over 1984 Bird is looking pretty controversial. :D
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#19 » by homecourtloss » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:55 pm

1. 2000 Shaq: best regular season and great PS run. Great effort on defense. One of his lower FTr during the regular season. Imagine if he had a higher one (though higher ones later related to hack a Shaq strategies) and had a decent FT shooting season. Top two Shaq seasons are just slightly a tier above the best version of Bird.
2. 2001 Shaq: dominant post season run and string regular season.
3. 1986 Bird: best combination of offense and defense for Bird, probably my favorite team to watch highlights of and basketball played so beautifully. I really wish we could have gotten a version that combines the fluidity of shooting that a 1988 Bird had with the motor and body of a younger Bird (Bird physically looks the best as a rookie or in 1981 as far as lean muscle and proportions are concerned) q we never really got that but this is as close to a version we have.
4. 1984 Bird
5. 2002 Shaq
6. 1998 Shaq Monster impact season despite his usual poor FT shooting. +15.7 per 100 estimated on court...that’s crazy. 1998 series vs. Jazz not his fault kind of like 1977 series vs. Blazers
7. 1985 Bird [injury lowers value]
8. 2003 Shaq
9. 1999 Shaq
10. 1987 Bird—these two (‘87 and ‘88)offensive seasons of Bird’s as the primary catalyst for great Celtics’ offense is something to really marvel at especially given his injuries but lowered motor hurts him on defense
11. 1988 Bird — one of my favorite Bird seasons because of the way he developed his shot and how smooth and quick his release was. If we could combine this season with the motor and physicality of a younger Bird...
12. 1995 Shaq — best Shaq season outside of 1998-2003
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird 

Post#20 » by DQuinn1575 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:44 pm

Turned out to be pretty close in my book; they each suffer from not having as many great seasons as a few of the other guys. Bird from 84-88 was obviously pretty darned good, but playoff woes before and injuries afterwards just limit the number of great seasons he can put up against someone (note I tweaked my system just a little, so 85/88 Bird flipflopped - I'm pretty sure over a couple of months I will do this more than once)
Shaq's 2000 season stands out, with the playoff finals dominance being the reason he takes the top spot over Bird in 86. But Shaq just keeps missing games; I have ranked 3 different seasons where he only played 67 games. Had he played say 77 games then 2002 and 2003 would rise in my rankings and turn a tossup into a fairly clear Shaq victory.


1 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2 1986 Larry Bird
3 1984 Larry Bird
4 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
5 1987 Larry Bird
6 1985 Larry Bird
7 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
9 1995 Shaquille O'Neal
8 1988 Larry Bird
10 2003 Shaquille O'Neal
11 2004 Shaquille O'Neal
12 1994 Shaquille O'Neal

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