Projecting 2022 Salaries

[bluerap23]

Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?

[Schad]

Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?



While looking for resource I came across this article from March 2020 https://www.tsn.ca/inactive-1.1460605 on projecting the lineup.

It's actually a pretty decent projection all things considered.

Matt Swartz developed a model that it's used by MLB Trade Rumors and has proven fairly accurate, but it's proprietary. Best I'm aware, there aren't any publicly-available models of any real calibre.

In its stead, I'd suggest using comparisons instead, especially for first-year arb players like Vlad. The obvious one there is Cody Bellinger, who like Vlad was a Super 2 player who was an MVP candidate (Bellinger actually won) in his final pre-arb season. Bellinger got $11.5m; I'd expect Vlad to be in a similar range. Could be a shade higher given inflation and Vlad's slightly gaudier counting stats, could be a shade lower given that Bellinger won the MVP and Vlad will likely finish 2nd.

For the others who have already gone through arb, you're kinda looking at a bounded range based on current performance and past arb raises.

Berrios got an arb raise of $2.1m in 2021 and has performed fairly well: I'd expect him to settle in the $9.0m range.

Teoscar is having a very good year (particularly with his counting stats), and something in the $7.5m range wouldn't be surprising.

Stripling probably settles in the $4m range unless he's non-tendered, which is entirely possible.

None of the other guys will be more than $1.5m, I'd imagine.

[bluerap23]

Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?



While looking for resource I came across this article from March 2020 https://www.tsn.ca/inactive-1.1460605 on projecting the lineup.

It's actually a pretty decent projection all things considered.

Matt Swartz developed a model that it's used by MLB Trade Rumors and has proven fairly accurate, but it's proprietary. Best I'm aware, there aren't any publicly-available models of any real calibre.

In its stead, I'd suggest using comparisons instead, especially for first-year arb players like Vlad. The obvious one there is Cody Bellinger, who like Vlad was a Super 2 player who was an MVP candidate (Bellinger actually won) in his final pre-arb season. Bellinger got $11.5m; I'd expect Vlad to be in a similar range. Could be a shade higher given inflation and Vlad's slightly gaudier counting stats, could be a shade lower given that Bellinger won the MVP and Vlad will likely finish 2nd.

For the others who have already gone through arb, you're kinda looking at a bounded range based on current performance and past arb raises.

Berrios got an arb raise of $2.1m in 2021 and has performed fairly well: I'd expect him to settle in the $9.0m range.

Teoscar is having a very good year (particularly with his counting stats), and something in the $7.5m range wouldn't be surprising.

Stripling probably settles in the $4m range unless he's non-tendered, which is entirely possible.

None of the other guys will be more than $1.5m, I'd imagine.

Thanks for that! Thoughts on this? To illustrate what options we have locked in to start with in the off-season.

[bluerap23]

Updated based on these projections

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[The_Hater]

Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?

[bluerap23]

Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?

Hah! The totals are exactly the same and I didn't even notice. The changes all cancelled each other out!

[Aimless Outlook]

I find it hard to believe that if the Jays ate ~4 million of Grichuk's salary, that a team looking for a CF wouldn't jump on that and part with a 4/5 starting pitcher or a couple decent relievers. Am I out to lunch on that?

Or, are they keeping Grichuk around until they have a better idea of Springer's health going forward?

[Schad]

Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?

Hah! The totals are exactly the same and I didn't even notice. The changes all cancelled each other out!

That's pretty funny. I'm surprised how high Teo's figure was, given that he wasn't rewarded generously in first-year arb, but arbitration definitely favours traditional counting stats, and his were very good this past year. I'm also surprised by Vlad's projection...Super-2 players do generally get a bit less in their first year, but I had expected him to be at $10m or above.

But apparently my wrongness was, overall, right...?

[bluerap23]

Updated with Gausman and Garcia we are now at about 138million. My guess is that they will be budgeting 160 for the 26-man and are hoping to offload Randal, which will give them 32 million to spend.

[Parataxis]

Updated with Gausman and Garcia we are now at about 139million. My guess is that they will be budgeting 160 for the 26-man and are hoping to offload Randal, which will give them 31 million to spend.

I wonder if they're planning on using any of that now for a looooong extension with Vlade.

[bluerap23]

Forgot the table

[bluerap23]

[bluerap23]

At 165 million for 26 man. Borucki and Phelps currently pencilled in at 27 and 28. If Phelps makes top 26 we are closer to 167. Looks like the budget for big team is 170.

[Mehar]

If I am not mistaken, but last year's opening day payroll was in the 140 million range. I got to commend ownership for increasing it by 30 million. Hopefully, there is some more money left, if the Jays are in the thick of things and need to add some salary come trade deadline time.