The LeBron Thread 2021 Off-Season Edition

[AmIWrongDude]

Don't wanna get weird but I just turned 30 recently and have noticed myself getting more emotional and reflective and I'm gonna be so sad when Bron hangs em up or even just becomes a role player.

I live in the Bay Area and became a hardcore Bron stan his second year in the league and have watched just about every game since thanks to League Pass in the early days (with those guitar solos on commercial breaks lol) and streaming now. I liked basketball and casually watched the Warriors before that as a kid but he made me care at a different level than before and I dont even really remember why.

I think part of it was that I grew up in sports being decent overall but I always loved being the distributor in both soccer and basketball. i couldn't identify with the Kobe type mindset but loved that someone as insanely talented and athletic as Bron was all about playmaking.

And then being a little bit older, getting the rivalry with the dynasty Warriors as a Bay Area guy was a dream come true. People that called me a bandwagoner not knowing I've watched like every game LeBron played since his second year, realized that it was different when I wasn't flip flopping to the Warriors when they were dominating the league. Obviously you cant beat the way Cavs fans from Cleveland felt during the 2016 championship, but it was pretty great for me after all the **** I always had to take from Warriors fans.

My best friend was the same way but with Kobe and we were always getting in heated Kobe vs. Bron arguments. It was sad watching Kobe become a negative on the floor towards the end of his career and when he retired it was sad because my buddy went from watching every single Laker game to just watching the NBA casually. I'm pretty damn grateful I've gotten to watch so many years of LeBron and I really don't know what I'm going to do when he retires.

I really really hope he can defy the odds and keep fighting Father Time a little longer. One more ring would be enough for me. /drunk rant

[AmIWrongDude]

Pretty unfortunate that only defensive reads that are followed by plays on the ball make it into highlights but at least it's something the casuals can digest. That weakside help defense is elite.

Watch on YouTube

I often wonder what eyetest people are using to have him as a bad defender. Probably twitter gifs "analysis".

Basically “kUzMa PuShEd lEbRoN” Then there was that video by “Coach” Nick who was nitpicking defense during LeBron’s historic 2016 defensive playoff run.

You can see some of the reasoning in this thread (I had to use a fake title just to lure them in):

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1820092&hilit=Statistical+horrific

Weakside help defense and line clogging perimeter defense are super underrated on these forums. Hardly ever see people commenting on it. Team defense impact is just too hard to conceptualise in the NBA I guess. It's a shame because genuinely good discussion could be had around it.

I think it's more important than on-ball defense overall but the problem is you cant really quantify it or even notice it most of the time unless you're focusing on that particular player. Being in the right place at the right time is the most important part of defense imo but it's also the least sexy.

This example is just off the top of my head and might be off-base but it's why a player like Danny Green can be so impactful and valuable for winning even when it doesn't seem like it and why a player like Pat Bev is crazy overrated on defense. I take size and smarts being in the right place over the tenacious "dog" type defenders all day. The defenders that pick up full court and hound players obviously have value but I think they get beat just as often as they make a good defensive play because most stars are too damn good on offense for it to work consistently.

[zimpy27]

Basically “kUzMa PuShEd lEbRoN” Then there was that video by “Coach” Nick who was nitpicking defense during LeBron’s historic 2016 defensive playoff run.

You can see some of the reasoning in this thread (I had to use a fake title just to lure them in):

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1820092&hilit=Statistical+horrific

Weakside help defense and line clogging perimeter defense are super underrated on these forums. Hardly ever see people commenting on it. Team defense impact is just too hard to conceptualise in the NBA I guess. It's a shame because genuinely good discussion could be had around it.

I think it's more important than on-ball defense overall but the problem is you cant really quantify it or even notice it most of the time unless you're focusing on that particular player. Being in the right place at the right time is the most important part of defense imo but it's also the least sexy.

This example is just off the top of my head and might be off-base but it's why a player like Danny Green can be so impactful and valuable for winning even when it doesn't seem like it and why a player like Pat Bev is crazy overrated on defense. I take size and smarts being in the right place over the tenacious "dog" type defenders all day. The defenders that pick up full court and hound players obviously have value but I think they get beat just as often as they make a good defensive play because most stars are too damn good on offense for it to work consistently.

Yep. I think if they had it as a stat or a box score for weakside interceptions then people might care more. It is hard to quantify, people just don't look for it. Most just follow the ball.

Pat Bev is overrated generally but is a good example of a type of NBA defender that can be effective but needs certain help behind him. That hounding defense does work in getting under skin but its value is mostly fruited from the team defense looking to pick off mistakes it generates. This does get complicated, been thinking a bit on how to quantitate some of this but it's really tough.

[trickshot]

Basically “kUzMa PuShEd lEbRoN” Then there was that video by “Coach” Nick who was nitpicking defense during LeBron’s historic 2016 defensive playoff run.

You can see some of the reasoning in this thread (I had to use a fake title just to lure them in):

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1820092&hilit=Statistical+horrific

Weakside help defense and line clogging perimeter defense are super underrated on these forums. Hardly ever see people commenting on it. Team defense impact is just too hard to conceptualise in the NBA I guess. It's a shame because genuinely good discussion could be had around it.

I think it's more important than on-ball defense overall but the problem is you cant really quantify it or even notice it most of the time unless you're focusing on that particular player. Being in the right place at the right time is the most important part of defense imo but it's also the least sexy.

This example is just off the top of my head and might be off-base but it's why a player like Danny Green can be so impactful and valuable for winning even when it doesn't seem like it and why a player like Pat Bev is crazy overrated on defense. I take size and smarts being in the right place over the tenacious "dog" type defenders all day. The defenders that pick up full court and hound players obviously have value but I think they get beat just as often as they make a good defensive play because most stars are too damn good on offense for it to work consistently.

For sure great point. It's especially important in the space era where half the defense is basically on the weakside. Underrated because a good read only gets noticed if it led to a steal or a block but unlike unlike steals/blocks they are influencing every other defensive possession and affecting opponent shot quality throughout the game. Draymond is another of my favourites when it comes to this.

But I get it since no one tunes into a game to look away from the ball. I don't look there all the time if I'm not particular invested in the game. May also take an experienced eye to see the whole floor or even a concerted effort to watch one guy away from the ball. For that reason most people's eyetest are hot garbage.

It's also why people can't understand how Lebron's keeps posting stellar defensive numbers while there are all these gifs and lowlights of blown rotations.

[AmIWrongDude]

Weakside help defense and line clogging perimeter defense are super underrated on these forums. Hardly ever see people commenting on it. Team defense impact is just too hard to conceptualise in the NBA I guess. It's a shame because genuinely good discussion could be had around it.

I think it's more important than on-ball defense overall but the problem is you cant really quantify it or even notice it most of the time unless you're focusing on that particular player. Being in the right place at the right time is the most important part of defense imo but it's also the least sexy.

This example is just off the top of my head and might be off-base but it's why a player like Danny Green can be so impactful and valuable for winning even when it doesn't seem like it and why a player like Pat Bev is crazy overrated on defense. I take size and smarts being in the right place over the tenacious "dog" type defenders all day. The defenders that pick up full court and hound players obviously have value but I think they get beat just as often as they make a good defensive play because most stars are too damn good on offense for it to work consistently.

Yep. I think if they had it as a stat or a box score for weakside interceptions then people might care more. It is hard to quantify, people just don't look for it. Most just follow the ball.

Pat Bev is overrated generally but is a good example of a type of NBA defender that can be effective but needs certain help behind him. That hounding defense does work in getting under skin but its value is mostly fruited from the team defense looking to pick off mistakes it generates. This does get complicated, been thinking a bit on how to quantitate some of this but it's really tough.

I agree with you there - and that brings up another huge point that even the best "individual defenders" or "on-ball defenders" rely on their teammates, the scheme, and who is protecting the rim. Is a guy like Caruso that hounds ball handlers that valuable without AD, Bron, and a rock solid defensive scheme behind him? Probably not but I guess we'll find out this year.

I think those weakside interceptions are the only offball defensive plays besides blocks that are seen as sexy and they're usually pretty overrated. Imo its so hard to know the true value because a lot of guys that do make those kind of plays also get beat BECAUSE they gamble like that. Say 2 plays happen in a row: one the defender jumps the pass and picks it off, and the second play he jumps out but gets beat for a backdoor layup - that defender gets the sexy steal and his bad defensive play doesn't really show up except for advanced stats.

I love defense so much (as someone who couldnt score for **** in high school) but I hate how it's judged. Imo a guy like Beverly is an average defender at best. He's in your face and always "making things difficult" but I think that same aggressiveness leads to easy buckets as well. The good players feed on that.

[homecourtloss]

Weakside help defense and line clogging perimeter defense are super underrated on these forums. Hardly ever see people commenting on it. Team defense impact is just too hard to conceptualise in the NBA I guess. It's a shame because genuinely good discussion could be had around it.

I think it's more important than on-ball defense overall but the problem is you cant really quantify it or even notice it most of the time unless you're focusing on that particular player. Being in the right place at the right time is the most important part of defense imo but it's also the least sexy.

This example is just off the top of my head and might be off-base but it's why a player like Danny Green can be so impactful and valuable for winning even when it doesn't seem like it and why a player like Pat Bev is crazy overrated on defense. I take size and smarts being in the right place over the tenacious "dog" type defenders all day. The defenders that pick up full court and hound players obviously have value but I think they get beat just as often as they make a good defensive play because most stars are too damn good on offense for it to work consistently.

For sure great point. It's especially important in the space era where half the defense is basically on the weakside. Underrated because a good read only gets noticed if it led to a steal or a block but unlike unlike steals/blocks they are influencing every other defensive possession and affecting opponent shot quality throughout the game. Draymond is another of my favourites when it comes to this.

But I get it since no one tunes into a game to look away from the ball. I don't look there all the time if I'm not particular invested in the game. May also take an experienced eye to see the whole floor or even a concerted effort to watch one guy away from the ball. For that reason most people's eyetest are hot garbage.

It's also why people can't understand how Lebron's keeps posting stellar defensive numbers while there are all these gifs and lowlights of blown rotations.

Exactly. Quarterbacking the defense, calling out the defensive rotations, stopping actions this way, is highly valuable especially in the pace and space era. Stockton was able to be an impact defender into his late 30s and even at 40 as a small point guard specifically because of ability to quarterback a defense.

The power of narrative is also strong as is reluctance of some to trust metrics that belie narrative beliefs. In that thread I posted, every possible way of quantifying defensive performance pointed to a player being a plus defender, but because of who it is, they wanted to find some ways in which all the quantifiable data was “wrong,” or “did not prove anything,” while some narrative or gif or video did.

Now the complete lack of effort on a lost cause 2018 Cavs defense didn’t help but the people building the “LeBron lack of effort and defense” narrative have been pushing it “since he left Miami,” which, of course, isn’t true.

[falcolombardi]

even in players comparision board i think there is some overating of "activity" and overvaluing players for number of shots contested or guarding the opposite star

even at the times when that doesnt translate to defensive impact in team defense or plus minus the way a roamer/helper role does

like. everyone shat on giannis for not guarding durant 1vs1, somethingh that would work for all of 1 second it takes to call a screen and have giannis much bigger body mass go against him vs líghter durant

bucks shaved like 7 points of nets offense and durant efficiency but still were criticized defensively because people saw dursnt scoring numbers over shorter defenders and giannis in the other side of the court and criticized that (i did too before realizing i was wrong there)

[Homer38]

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[KTM_2813]

Don't wanna get weird but I just turned 30 recently and have noticed myself getting more emotional and reflective and I'm gonna be so sad when Bron hangs em up or even just becomes a role player.

I live in the Bay Area and became a hardcore Bron stan his second year in the league and have watched just about every game since thanks to League Pass in the early days (with those guitar solos on commercial breaks lol) and streaming now. I liked basketball and casually watched the Warriors before that as a kid but he made me care at a different level than before and I dont even really remember why.

I think part of it was that I grew up in sports being decent overall but I always loved being the distributor in both soccer and basketball. i couldn't identify with the Kobe type mindset but loved that someone as insanely talented and athletic as Bron was all about playmaking.

And then being a little bit older, getting the rivalry with the dynasty Warriors as a Bay Area guy was a dream come true. People that called me a bandwagoner not knowing I've watched like every game LeBron played since his second year, realized that it was different when I wasn't flip flopping to the Warriors when they were dominating the league. Obviously you cant beat the way Cavs fans from Cleveland felt during the 2016 championship, but it was pretty great for me after all the **** I always had to take from Warriors fans.

My best friend was the same way but with Kobe and we were always getting in heated Kobe vs. Bron arguments. It was sad watching Kobe become a negative on the floor towards the end of his career and when he retired it was sad because my buddy went from watching every single Laker game to just watching the NBA casually. I'm pretty damn grateful I've gotten to watch so many years of LeBron and I really don't know what I'm going to do when he retires.

I really really hope he can defy the odds and keep fighting Father Time a little longer. One more ring would be enough for me. /drunk rant

For people our age, LeBron retiring will have extra significance because he is the last remaining hero of ours from when we were kids (except maybe Melo, but I think we can all agree that LeBron is different). I mentioned this in another thread but when LeBron came into the league, I was in elementary school. Now I'm 30 with a mortgage and a wife and everything else that comes with it. LeBron is one of my few constants over the years. I hope he crushes his last three or four years in the league and then sails off into the sunset.

[PistolPeteJR]

Don't wanna get weird but I just turned 30 recently and have noticed myself getting more emotional and reflective and I'm gonna be so sad when Bron hangs em up or even just becomes a role player.

I live in the Bay Area and became a hardcore Bron stan his second year in the league and have watched just about every game since thanks to League Pass in the early days (with those guitar solos on commercial breaks lol) and streaming now. I liked basketball and casually watched the Warriors before that as a kid but he made me care at a different level than before and I dont even really remember why.

I think part of it was that I grew up in sports being decent overall but I always loved being the distributor in both soccer and basketball. i couldn't identify with the Kobe type mindset but loved that someone as insanely talented and athletic as Bron was all about playmaking.

And then being a little bit older, getting the rivalry with the dynasty Warriors as a Bay Area guy was a dream come true. People that called me a bandwagoner not knowing I've watched like every game LeBron played since his second year, realized that it was different when I wasn't flip flopping to the Warriors when they were dominating the league. Obviously you cant beat the way Cavs fans from Cleveland felt during the 2016 championship, but it was pretty great for me after all the **** I always had to take from Warriors fans.

My best friend was the same way but with Kobe and we were always getting in heated Kobe vs. Bron arguments. It was sad watching Kobe become a negative on the floor towards the end of his career and when he retired it was sad because my buddy went from watching every single Laker game to just watching the NBA casually. I'm pretty damn grateful I've gotten to watch so many years of LeBron and I really don't know what I'm going to do when he retires.

I really really hope he can defy the odds and keep fighting Father Time a little longer. One more ring would be enough for me. /drunk rant

For people our age, LeBron retiring will have extra significance because he is the last remaining hero of ours from when we were kids (except maybe Melo, but I think we can all agree that LeBron is different). I mentioned this in another thread but when LeBron came into the league, I was in elementary school. Now I'm 30 with a mortgage and a wife and everything else that comes with it. LeBron is one of my few constants over the years. I hope he crushes his last three or four years in the league and then sails off into the sunset.

Completely understand you guys. I've caught myself thinking a few times over the last year or so that when he retires, I wonder if my excitement for the game will be the same.
A large part of it is the nostalgia. That's something that's going to simply go away. But what you do afterward is a choice you make. Are you going to let that nostalgia blind you (eg. Jordan fans, Magic fans, etc), or are you going to allow it to sit in its rightful place and choose objectivity without letting the bias really take its toll, as much as you can?

[jalengreen]

Don't wanna get weird but I just turned 30 recently and have noticed myself getting more emotional and reflective and I'm gonna be so sad when Bron hangs em up or even just becomes a role player.

I live in the Bay Area and became a hardcore Bron stan his second year in the league and have watched just about every game since thanks to League Pass in the early days (with those guitar solos on commercial breaks lol) and streaming now. I liked basketball and casually watched the Warriors before that as a kid but he made me care at a different level than before and I dont even really remember why.

I think part of it was that I grew up in sports being decent overall but I always loved being the distributor in both soccer and basketball. i couldn't identify with the Kobe type mindset but loved that someone as insanely talented and athletic as Bron was all about playmaking.

And then being a little bit older, getting the rivalry with the dynasty Warriors as a Bay Area guy was a dream come true. People that called me a bandwagoner not knowing I've watched like every game LeBron played since his second year, realized that it was different when I wasn't flip flopping to the Warriors when they were dominating the league. Obviously you cant beat the way Cavs fans from Cleveland felt during the 2016 championship, but it was pretty great for me after all the **** I always had to take from Warriors fans.

My best friend was the same way but with Kobe and we were always getting in heated Kobe vs. Bron arguments. It was sad watching Kobe become a negative on the floor towards the end of his career and when he retired it was sad because my buddy went from watching every single Laker game to just watching the NBA casually. I'm pretty damn grateful I've gotten to watch so many years of LeBron and I really don't know what I'm going to do when he retires.

I really really hope he can defy the odds and keep fighting Father Time a little longer. One more ring would be enough for me. /drunk rant

For people our age, LeBron retiring will have extra significance because he is the last remaining hero of ours from when we were kids (except maybe Melo, but I think we can all agree that LeBron is different). I mentioned this in another thread but when LeBron came into the league, I was in elementary school. Now I'm 30 with a mortgage and a wife and everything else that comes with it. LeBron is one of my few constants over the years. I hope he crushes his last three or four years in the league and then sails off into the sunset.

Completely understand you guys. I've caught myself thinking a few times over the last year or so that when he retires, I wonder if my excitement for the game will be the same.
A large part of it is the nostalgia. That's something that's going to simply go away. But what you do afterward is a choice you make. Are you going to let that nostalgia blind you (eg. Jordan fans, Magic fans, etc), or are you going to allow it to sit in its rightful place and choose objectivity without letting the bias really take its toll, as much as you can?

As much as I'd love to say otherwise, I think watching LeBron all these years (15 for me) and rooting for him will make it hard for me to not be biased in the future. I already get irrationally offended when players are compared to him (KD, Giannis, and Luka recently, all of which for different reasons). I'm not sure how I'll react when that next GOAT level player really comes into their own and makes their case for his spot (wherever you think that may be). Would not surprise me if some of my comments about Jordan fans end up being extremely hypocritical lol

[falcolombardi]

when i go online i get the opposite impression, that among hardcore fans is the past retired players that get nostalgia goggles and the present is the one diminished

if anythingh being in the other side of "today generation is so soft, curry wouldnt make the league in a real men era" kind of arguments. would be a refreshing change of pace

[VanWest82]

even in players comparision board i think there is some overating of "activity" and overvaluing players for number of shots contested or guarding the opposite star

even at the times when that doesnt translate to defensive impact in team defense or plus minus the way a roamer/helper role does

like. everyone shat on giannis for not guarding durant 1vs1, somethingh that would work for all of 1 second it takes to call a screen and have giannis much bigger body mass go against him vs líghter durant

bucks shaved like 7 points of nets offense and durant efficiency but still were criticized defensively because people saw dursnt scoring numbers over shorter defenders and giannis in the other side of the court and criticized that (i did too before realizing i was wrong there)

I don't think defensive activity can be painted as a bad thing and it is an area where Lebron comes out looking pretty average. If we use the defensive box component of RAPTOR as a measure given it incorporates tracking data (i.e. not just shots contested but deflections, loose balls recovered, charges, etc., in addition to drbd, blk, stl) we can see he rates out middle of the pack.

21: RS -0.1 PO +1.6
20: RS -0.4 PO +2.3
19: RS -0.2
18: RS -0.9 PO -0.4
17: RS +0.2 PO +2.1
16: RS +0.8 PO +3.7
15: RS -0.6 PO +1.1
14: RS -1.3 PO -0.9

You'll notice this data fits the narrative that Lebron is much less active in the regular season and then dials it up for the playoffs. But to your point about activity being overrated it's worth noting that there is definitely a relationship between activity and defensive success. Here's the regression between def box raptor and def on/off raptor for 21 season (r = .470):

Spoiler:

Here's just Lebron with regular and postseasons split to help provide a bigger data set (r = .629). p value is way out here so take it with a grain of salt but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize more active Lebron = more imfactful Lebron defensively.

I disagree that keeping Giannis away from Durant was key to their strategy of slowing KD/Nets down. It was key to their strategy of keeping Giannis out of foul trouble.

[trickshot]

even in players comparision board i think there is some overating of "activity" and overvaluing players for number of shots contested or guarding the opposite star

even at the times when that doesnt translate to defensive impact in team defense or plus minus the way a roamer/helper role does

like. everyone shat on giannis for not guarding durant 1vs1, somethingh that would work for all of 1 second it takes to call a screen and have giannis much bigger body mass go against him vs líghter durant

bucks shaved like 7 points of nets offense and durant efficiency but still were criticized defensively because people saw dursnt scoring numbers over shorter defenders and giannis in the other side of the court and criticized that (i did too before realizing i was wrong there)

I don't think defensive activity can be painted as a bad thing and it is an area where Lebron comes out looking pretty average. If we use the defensive box component of RAPTOR as a measure given it incorporates tracking data (i.e. not just shots contested but deflections, loose balls recovered, charges, etc., in addition to drbd, blk, stl) we can see he rates out middle of the pack.

21: RS -0.1 PO +1.6
20: RS -0.4 PO +2.3
19: RS -0.2
18: RS -0.9 PO -0.4
17: RS +0.2 PO +2.1
16: RS +0.8 PO +3.7
15: RS -0.6 PO +1.1
14: RS -1.3 PO -0.9

You'll notice this data fits the narrative that Lebron is much less active in the regular season and then dials it up for the playoffs. But to your point about activity being overrated it's worth noting that there is definitely a relationship between activity and defensive success. Here's the regression between def box raptor and def on/off raptor for 21 season (r = .497):

Spoiler:

Here's just Lebron with regular and postseasons split to help provide a bigger data set (r = .629). p value is way out here so take it with a grain of salt but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize more active Lebron = more imfactful Lebron defensively.

I disagree that keeping Giannis away from Durant was key to their strategy of slowing KD/Nets down. It was key to their strategy of keeping Giannis out of foul trouble.

With all due respect to the amount of good work you've made in getting your point across defensive boxscore raptor has its biggest flaw foreshadowed in its own name ie 'boxscore' as in using raw numbers to quantify defense, boxscore derived defensive activity and the resulting natural bias towards guys who make plays on the ball.

You didn't think it was odd that Montrez Harrell and Andre Drummond were higher rated than Lebron? Two of the worse defenders being hidden on the Lakers. By defensive rating stat Harrell and Lebron were the Lakers highest rated duo, raptor otoh is most naturally going to have Harrell as the one doing the lifting because of the boxscore "made plays on the ball" emphasis but when you see them play it's beyond a shadow of doubt level obvious where the impact of the duo is concentrated.

Don't get it twisted I'm not going to discredit the entire stat as those guys put a lot of effort into making it a decent tool, the point was boxscore based metrics will never be a conclusive measure and in some cases even unsuitable, defense especially and in situations like this its weaknesses show glaringly. For a number of reasons many of these are actually decent towards the top then slowly lose their reliability the further down one goes.

corrected some wording ambiguities. Yeah I'm done revising now,

[VanWest82]

With all due respect to the amount of good work you've made in getting your point across defensive boxscore raptor has its biggest flaw foreshadowed in its own name ie 'boxscore' as in using raw numbers to quantify defense, boxscore derived defensive activity and the resulting natural bias towards guys who make plays on the ball.

It's not perfect that's for sure. You forgot the part about how DFG% is baked in so it's not even trying to be a measure of activity - I'm just just saying it's close enough and is a useful proxy to help get the point across that all else being equal defensive activity impacts defensive success. Further, I'd argue that "guys who make plays on the ball" in one form or another is a pretty good measure of who's good and who isn't most of the time (i.e. if you're never making a play on the ball of any kind, how much of a difference are you actually making??).

You didn't think it was odd that Montrez Harrell and Andre Drummond were higher rated than Lebron? Two of the worse defenders being hidden on the Lakers. By defensive rating stat Harrell and Lebron were the Lakers highest rated duo, raptor otoh is most naturally going to have Harrell as the one doing the lifting because of the boxscore "made plays on the ball" emphasis but when you see them play it's beyond a shadow of doubt level obvious where the impact of the duo is concentrated.

No I didn't think it was odd but it's not correct that they were rated highest: Gasol, Caruso, and AD had the highest Def Box RAPTOR for Lakers last year.

Re your comment about natural bias, it's funny how the brain works and internalizes things. You watch the games and you see Lebron making all the right decisions and Harrell and Drummond - two of the most extreme examples in the league btw - are out there looking like idiots at times and so the contrast is stark. I'd argue it's more likely you're accidentally being biased against those guys (and in favor of Lebron) by discounting how much their energy means on random Tuesday nights in the RS. Just because they become unplayable vs. good teams that doesn't discount winning plays they make against bad ones when we're tallying up season score cards. Bottom line is they did make more plays on the ball than Lebron and as much as you might like to paint something like a charge or deflection or shot contest as a bad thing (or meaningless in within context of what else they may or may not bring to the table) we know that stuff correlates with defensive success.

Spoiler:

FWIW here's Harrell's chart (r = .658):

Don't get it twisted I'm not going to discredit the entire stat as those guys put a lot of effort into making it a decent tool, the point was boxscore based metrics will never be a conclusive measure and in some cases even unsuitable, defense especially and in situations like this its weaknesses show glaringly. For a number of reasons many of these are actually decent towards the top then slowly lose their reliability the further down one goes.

corrected some wording ambiguities. Yeah I'm done revising now,

Again, I'm not using it as a way to say things like Harrell and Drummond > Lebron. But we now have years of data where we can make some general comments like guys who are higher in Def Box RAPTOR are usually the ones doing more stuff on defense even if some of the guys are doing more stuff because they're idiots. And as I showed with Lebron's own numbers, there's a relationship with his activity (Def Box RAPTOR) and defensive success (Def on/off RAPTOR). I think it can be true that RAPTOR isn't perfect and that my general point holds.

I wish we had tracking going all the way back because I bet I'd be able to show that Bron's activity numbers went up 09-13. and that it was a big reason why those teams had so much success defensively just like we can see this looking at difference between his RS and PS.

[trickshot]

With all due respect to the amount of good work you've made in getting your point across defensive boxscore raptor has its biggest flaw foreshadowed in its own name ie 'boxscore' as in using raw numbers to quantify defense, boxscore derived defensive activity and the resulting natural bias towards guys who make plays on the ball.

It's not perfect that's for sure. You forgot the part about how DFG% is baked in so it's not even trying to be a measure of activity - I'm just just saying it's close enough and is a useful proxy to help get the point across that all else being equal defensive activity impacts defensive success. Further, I'd argue that "guys who make plays on the ball" in one form or another is a pretty good measure of who's good and who isn't most of the time (i.e. if you're never making a play on the ball of any kind, how good are you really??).

You didn't think it was odd that Montrez Harrell and Andre Drummond were higher rated than Lebron? Two of the worse defenders being hidden on the Lakers. By defensive rating stat Harrell and Lebron were the Lakers highest rated duo, raptor otoh is most naturally going to have Harrell as the one doing the lifting because of the boxscore "made plays on the ball" emphasis but when you see them play it's beyond a shadow of doubt level obvious where the impact of the duo is concentrated.

No I didn't think it was odd but it's not correct that they were rated highest: Gasol, Caruso, and AD had the highest Def Box RAPTOR for Lakers last year.

Re your comment about natural bias, it's funny how the brain works and internalizes things. You watch the games and you see Lebron making all the right decisions and Harrell and Drummond - two of the most extreme examples in the league btw - are out there looking like idiots at times and so the contrast is stark. I'd argue it's more likely you're accidentally being biased against those guys (and in favor of Lebron) by discounting how much their energy means on random Tuesday nights in the RS. Just because they become unplayable vs. good teams that doesn't discount winning plays they make against bad ones when we're tallying up season score cards. Bottom line is they did make more plays on the ball than Lebron and as much as you might like to paint something like a charge or deflection or shot contest as a bad thing (or meaningless) we know that stuff correlates with defensive success.

Spoiler:

FWIW here's Harrell's chart (r = .658):

Don't get it twisted I'm not going to discredit the entire stat as those guys put a lot of effort into making it a decent tool, the point was boxscore based metrics will never be a conclusive measure and in some cases even unsuitable, defense especially and in situations like this its weaknesses show glaringly. For a number of reasons many of these are actually decent towards the top then slowly lose their reliability the further down one goes.

corrected some wording ambiguities. Yeah I'm done revising now,

Again, I'm not using it as a way to say things like Harrell and Drummond > Lebron. But we know have years of data where we can make some general comments like guys who are higher in Def Box RAPTOR are usually the ones doing more stuff on defense even if some of the guys are doing more stuff because they're idiots. And as I showed with Lebron's own numbers, there's a relationship with his activity (Def Box RAPTOR) and defensive success (Def on/off RAPTOR). I think it can be true that RAPTOR isn't perfect and that my general point holds.

I wish we had tracking going all the way back because I bet I'd be able to show that Bron's activity numbers went up 09-13. and that it was a big reason why those teams had so much success defensively.

I mean the problem here is how defensive activity is being counted. Raw stats don't measure defensive activity, they measure defensive activity associated with making plays on the ball.

As another example, AD and Gasol sleepwalked on defense for the first couple months of the season, would barely move when a guard waltzed into the paint (this is where the notion that they needed a rim protector was at its peak among Laker fans), numbers supported this too as the Lakers despite being a top defense had the worst rim percentage and highest attempts conceded in the paint. They kept their top defensive rating by being the best at keeping perimeter shots below average efficiency. Yes they would turn it around in the new year but till then a lot of the Laker's defensive rating till then would be generated without the benefit of rim deterrence. We can infer this because they gave up the 2nd most attempts at the rim. It wasn't a matter of the interior defense silently boosting outside defense. An all encompassing boxscore derived stat would never make this distinction and still have them as the driving force of the defense. There's a bunch of defensive context it naturally cannot know. You have to do further research to verify a lot of these metrics or you're asking to be misled.

Also Drummond and Trez? energy on defense? Dude, what the hell man? You believe this is some bias on my part where I just couldn't see the defensive impact of their defensive activity. Man what defensive activity? Trez especially doesn't rotate if he has to leave the paint, ballwatches on defensive rebounds and had to get scrapped in the playoffs after 5 minutes defending like a rookie. Be honest with me, you're forming these deductions off of the boxscore stat aren't you? How did you have Drummond as any type of an energy guy?

[VanWest82]

I mean the problem here is how defensive activity is being counted. Raw stats don't measure defensive activity, they measure defensive activity associated with making plays on the ball.

As another example, AD and Gasol sleepwalked on defense for the first couple months of the season, would barely move when a guard waltzed into the paint (this is where the notion that they needed a rim protector was at its peak among Laker fans), numbers supported this too as the Lakers despite being a top defense had the worst rim percentage and highest attempts conceded in the paint. They kept their top defensive rating by being the best at keeping perimeter shots below average efficiency. Yes they would turn it around in the new year but till then a lot of the Laker's defensive rating till then would be generated without the benefit of rim deterrence. We can infer this because they gave up the 2nd most attempts at the rim. It wasn't a matter of the interior defense silently boosting outside defense. An all encompassing boxscore derived stat would never make this distinction and still have them as the driving force of the defense. There's a bunch of defensive context it naturally cannot know. You have to do further research to verify a lot of these metrics or you're asking to be misled.

Also Drummond and Trez? energy on defense? Dude, what the hell man? You believe this is some bias on my part where I just couldn't see the defensive impact of their defensive activity. Man what defensive activity? Trez especially doesn't rotate if he has to leave the paint, ballwatches on defensive rebounds and had to get scrapped in the playoffs after 5 minutes defending like a rookie. Be honest with me, you're forming these deductions off of the boxscore stat aren't you? How did you have Drummond as any type of an energy guy?

I feel like you're lost in the forest here. Be honest with me, are you starting from a position of this doesn't make Lebron look great and so you're looking hard for reasons to poke holes?

Can we agree on this: all else being equal increased defensive activity generally leads to increased defensive success? (i.e. the team that's getting more deflections and steals, contesting and blocking more shots, taking more charges, recovering more loose balls, getting more defensive rebounds is usually going to have more defensive success, right?)

Harrell and Drummond are the most extreme examples in the league of dummies who are involved a lot. They're outliers. But even still...

Spoiler:

Distance travelled on defense per min:

Lebron: 0.0293 miles
Drummond: 0.0350 miles
Harrell: 0.0341 miles

Contested defensive rebounds per min:

Lebron: 0.0329
Drummond: 0.0927
Harrell: 0.0480

Deflections/steals/blocks per 36:

Lebron: 2.1/1.1/0.6
Drummond: 3.4/1.6/1.4
Harrell: 1.7/1.0/1.1

Charges per 36:

Lebron: 0.2
Drummond: 0.1
Harrell: 0.5

Contested shots per 36:

Lebron: 4.5
Drummond: 13.3
Harrell: 11.9

These are measures of defensive activity and when pooled together help paint the picture of which of these three were most/least active. You can say they sucked all you want (and I would agree with you) but they did more actual quantifiable stuff. That much can't be argued.

[trickshot]

I mean the problem here is how defensive activity is being counted. Raw stats don't measure defensive activity, they measure defensive activity associated with making plays on the ball.

As another example, AD and Gasol sleepwalked on defense for the first couple months of the season, would barely move when a guard waltzed into the paint (this is where the notion that they needed a rim protector was at its peak among Laker fans), numbers supported this too as the Lakers despite being a top defense had the worst rim percentage and highest attempts conceded in the paint. They kept their top defensive rating by being the best at keeping perimeter shots below average efficiency. Yes they would turn it around in the new year but till then a lot of the Laker's defensive rating till then would be generated without the benefit of rim deterrence. We can infer this because they gave up the 2nd most attempts at the rim. It wasn't a matter of the interior defense silently boosting outside defense. An all encompassing boxscore derived stat would never make this distinction and still have them as the driving force of the defense. There's a bunch of defensive context it naturally cannot know. You have to do further research to verify a lot of these metrics or you're asking to be misled.

Also Drummond and Trez? energy on defense? Dude, what the hell man? You believe this is some bias on my part where I just couldn't see the defensive impact of their defensive activity. Man what defensive activity? Trez especially doesn't rotate if he has to leave the paint, ballwatches on defensive rebounds and had to get scrapped in the playoffs after 5 minutes defending like a rookie. Be honest with me, you're forming these deductions off of the boxscore stat aren't you? How did you have Drummond as any type of an energy guy?

I feel like you're lost in the forest here. Be honest with me, are you starting from a position of this doesn't make Lebron look great and so you're looking hard for reasons to poke holes?

What the hell. Is your ego so fragile that a light statement like that would have you taking offense and replying like that? If you can't stay civil kindly move along and have a good day.

[VanWest82]

Be honest with me, you're forming these deductions off of the boxscore stat aren't you?

Be honest with me, are you starting from a position of this doesn't make Lebron look great and so you're looking hard for reasons to poke holes?

What the hell. Is your ego so fragile that a light statement like that would have you taking offense and replying like that? If you can't stay civil kindly move along and have a good day.

I'm being the same amount of civil as you and I'm actually taking the time to respond to your points with real data.

[trickshot]

Be honest with me, are you starting from a position of this doesn't make Lebron look great and so you're looking hard for reasons to poke holes?

What the hell. Is your ego so fragile that a light statement like that would have you taking offense and replying like that? If you can't stay civil kindly move along and have a good day.

I'm being the same amount of civil as you and I'm actually taking the time to respond to your points with real data.

So being asked if your opinion of their defense is based on their placement in the boxscore stat (RAPTOR) you yourself posted and made a case for as a reliable tool is where you lost it? You need to learn debating etiquette.