sansterre wrote:Djoker wrote:I'm talking about seasons where the players in question aren't even the best players in the league and not even strong MVP candidates or they have terrible postseasons.. Half of Lebron's career namely 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2019 and 2021. For Jordan we can say 2002 and 2003.
Truthfully, I think this angle does a disservice to Jordan.
Jordan loses out on '85, '86 (injury), '94, '95 and obviously 2002 and 2003. So that leaves 1987-1993 and 1996-1998. Ten seasons.
I don't think LeBron's 2004-06 enters into an MVP discussion.
2007 is not quite so clear-cut. He finished #2 in RAPM but played considerably more minutes than the #1 (Duncan) and way more minutes than the #3 (Ginobili) and led the league in VORP by a solid margin. He didn't win the MVP but he probably should have. And his playoffs were pretty strong, averaging a 25/8/8 and a +8.1 BPM. His postseason was a mixed bag: he had a monster series against the Pistons (averaging a +11 BPM for the series and dragging his +3.3 SRS team into the Finals where they definitely didn't belong). But he also had a really bad series against the Spurs, where he had to do way too much against a way better (and smarter) team.
I think 2007 is an obvious MVP candidate season. And his playoffs weren't as strong as they'd be later (+5.7 OBPM is unusually low for playoff LeBron) but I don't really hold the Finals against him too much. His Cavs had zero business being matched up against the '07 Spurs. And the Cavs actually kept it close, only losing by 6 points a game. So, for me, I have no problem counting this as a "strong MVP candidate with a non-terrible postseason" but I can understand if you don't.
And here we are again in 2008. LeBron leads the league in VORP, leads the league in ESPN RPM Wins and while he finishes in the second tier in RAPM (it was KG, then a drop with LeBron, Duncan, Manu, Kobe, Nash and Dirk all together) he played more minutes than the others so, again, I think he's comfortably in "strong MVP candidate" territory. And in the playoffs LeBron puts together a +10 BPM and takes the eventual champion Celtics (one of the best defenses ever) to seven games, averaging above a +8 BPM and leading his Cavs to outscore the Celtics over the series, coming considerably closer to beating them than the Lakers did. 2008 meets your criteria easily.
You've already granted 2009.
In 2010 LeBron was the MVP by a mile; he led the league in every meaningful metric by a considerable margin. In the playoffs he put up an eye-bleeding +11.5 BPM and a +9 BPM against the defending champion Celtics. I don't for a second buy this as a "terrible" playoffs. Sure he had an awful Game 5, but he had two separate games over +20 BPM and had a +9.5 in Game 6. Yeah yeah, he looked "listless" in Game 5, but his overall series (against an ATG-level defense) was excellent. And he was the best player in the league by far. This gets in for me.
2011. LeBron leads the league in VORP, finishes a close second in ESPN's RPM (to Dwight Howard) and finishes a ways behind Dirk in RAPM (though LeBron played enough more minutes that it was close). Certainly a strong MVP case. LeBron's playoffs were really good (+7.1 BPM), but Wade was better and LeBron averages a mere +2 BPM against the Mavs in the Finals. While I don't think this was a "terrible" playoffs, I'm happy to ignore this season for these purposes.
You've conceded 2012-2018 and 2020.
I won't argue 2019.
2021? There's no real case for MVP there. His per-minute stats were certainly competitive, but his minutes were so low that it simply wasn't a thing. And in the playoffs, against the eventual champion of the West, he averaged a +9.2 BPM, certainly excellent. But I don't think he had an MVP case so we're not counting that.
So you've acknowledged nine seasons at this level. 2008 and 2010 seem like they aught to be in. I'll ignore 2007. So where Jordan has ten seasons at this level, LeBron has eleven. Plus more seasons at a sub-GOAT level (adding value). I don't actually think this approach makes Jordan look good. Even if you gave Jordan credit for an MVP-level season in 1985 (I'm not quite there) they'd still be tied, and LeBron has way more seasons to add value than Jordan at that point. Saying "who has the most MVP-level strong-playoff seasons" hurts Jordan, because it makes those seasons sound equivalent, and LeBron has a ton of them.
You're better off sticking to what I think is the stronger argument, that Jordan's best ten seasons were better than LeBron's best ten seasons (which I personally think they were). It doesn't invalidate the Career Value argument, but that was going to be uphill anyways.
But I think ignoring 2008 and 2010 isn't reasonable (both were MVP-level seasons or better and both were strong playoffs).