[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird

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[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#1 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:03 pm

Hello.

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 11:00 EST).

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;
Spoiler:
1. Bill Russell vs. Magic Johnson
2. Hakeem Olajuwon vs. Larry Bird
3. Michael Jordan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
4. LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Shaquille O'Neal

6. LeBron James vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. Michael Jordan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
8. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird
9. Tim Duncan vs. Magic Johnson
10. Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain

11. Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird
12. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
13. LeBron James vs. Bill Russell
14. Tim Duncan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
15. Magic Johnson vs. Shaquille O'Neal

16. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Bill Russell
17. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
18. Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird
19. LeBron James vs. Wilt Chamberlain
20. Michael Jordan vs. Tim Duncan

21. LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan
22. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Wilt Chamberlain
23. Tim Duncan vs. Larry Bird
24. Bill Russell vs. Shaquille O'Neal
25. Magic Johnson vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

26. LeBron James vs. Larry Bird
27. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Magic Johnson
28. Michael Jordan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
29. Bill Russell vs. Tim Duncan
30. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

31. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Shaquille O'Neal
32. LeBron James vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
33. Bill Russell vs. Larry Bird
34. Michael Jordan vs. Magic Johnson
35. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Tim Duncan

36. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Larry Bird
37. Tim Duncan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
38. Bill Russell vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
39. LeBron James vs. Magic Johnson
40. Michael Jordan vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

41. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Larry Bird
42. LeBron James vs. Shaquille O'Neal
43. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Magic Johnson
44. Tim Duncan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
45. Michael Jordan vs. Bill Russell


---

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The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#2 » by No-more-rings » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:23 pm

1. 91 Jordan
2. 90 Jordan
3. 89 Jordan
4. 88 Jordan
5. 92 Jordan
6. 86 Larry Bird
7. 87 Larry Bird
8. 93 Jordan
9. 84 Larry Bird
10. 96 Jordan
11. 85 Bird
12. 97 Jordan

Jordan really should have several years ahead of Bird's peak. People in this project seem to be hesitant to do that sort of thing, but for this one it's definitely warranted. I know Elgee has every version from 88-93 over peak Bird.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#3 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:05 pm

No-more-rings wrote:1. 91 Jordan
2. 90 Jordan
3. 89 Jordan
4. 88 Jordan
5. 92 Jordan
6. 86 Larry Bird
7. 87 Larry Bird
8. 93 Jordan
9. 84 Larry Bird
10. 96 Jordan
11. 85 Bird
12. 97 Jordan

Jordan really should have several years ahead of Bird's peak. People in this project seem to be hesitant to do that sort of thing, but for this one it's definitely warranted. I know Elgee has every version from 88-93 over peak Bird.


I think that's fair and roughly how I would do it(except switching 84 Bird with 87 due to his playoffs). Bird's playoffs simply don't compare to MJ's and only a few really get into the same ballpark. Also, Bird's overall efficiency as a scorer isn't good enough through a lot of his prime years when comparing him to someone like MJ or his defense.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#4 » by Djoker » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:31 pm

Bird has one of the best peaks in NBA history but vs. Jordan it's going to be tough. Outside of Bird's top 5 seasons from 1984-1988 I can't see any of his other seasons having any shot. And Jordan from 1988-1993... that's a ridiculous stretch of 6 years that I think very few if any players can even break for me and get a season between them. Almost 35/7/7 in the playoffs with elite defense on top of it for 6 years is just bonkers. No version of Bird was that good IMO. I might even be a bit low on 1996 and 1997 Jordan considering the Bulls just pulverized a lot of teams and he didn't have to put up crazy numbers but I still think peak Bird takes it over this version of MJ because Bird's Celtics likewise annihilated a lot of opposing teams.

Top 10 Jordan Seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1988
1992
1993
1996
1997
1987
1998

Top 5 Bird Seasons

1986
1987
1984
1985
1988

Top 12 Combined Seasons:

1991 Jordan
1990 Jordan
1989 Jordan
1988 Jordan
1992 Jordan
1993 Jordan
1986 Bird
1987 Bird
1984 Bird
1996 Jordan
1997 Jordan
1985 Bird
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#5 » by ty 4191 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:08 pm

Djoker wrote:Bird has one of the best peaks in NBA history but vs. Jordan it's going to be tough. Outside of Bird's top 5 seasons from 1984-1988 I can't see any of his other seasons having any shot.


"It's going to be tough" mainly because the NBA added 6 garbage/AAA level teams 1989-1996.

Bird was only healthy before 1988-1989, before massive, decimating NBA Expansion.

1989-1998: 10 of the 30 teams had a winning percentage under .400. 4 teams were under .324, overall.

1980-1988: FOUR of the 23 teams were under .400. ONE was under .324, overall.


Jordan's records versus expansion teams, prior to each making the playoffs:

Heat: 95-233 (.295)

Magic: 106-249 (.298)

Timberwolves: 192-464 (.292)

Raptors: 135-243 (.357)

Grizzlies: 101-418 (.195)

Code: Select all

[b]Season   # of Teams With a .500 Record (or Worse)[/b]

88–89: 10 of 25 (40%)

89–90: 12 of 27 (44.4%)

90–91: 14 of 27 (51.8%)

91–92: 13 of 27 (48.1%)

92–93: 14 of 27 (51.8%)

94–95: 13 of 27 (48.1%)

95–96: 15 of 29 (51.7%)

96–97: 15 of 29 (51.7%)

97–98: 13 of 29 (44.8%)

01–02: 13 of 29 (44.8%)

02–03: 12 of 29 (41.3%)

Garbage league, relative to every other era since the 1950's, top to bottom.

Almost every regular here insists on perpetually/incessantly comparing players' stats (as if they're comparable, 1:1) between eras.

Totally false equivalencies and totally bogus comparisons.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#6 » by Odinn21 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:26 am

I don't think this project is moving forwards with such hesitancy. The previous Jordan comparison was against Olajuwon and Jordan outscaled Olajuwon with 3:1 ratio. Jordan's '88-'93 span was only split up by '93 Olajuwon ('94 version was fairly close to '88 Jordan as 7th) and I think it's fairly accepted that Olajuwon peaked a bit higher than Bird. So, Jordan dominating this comparison won't come off as a surprise. Because we already saw a pretty similar comparison yielding similar results.

I've always been lower on Jordan's defensive performance in '88 than most. I think I might have '86 Bird over '88 Jordan. But my mock-up list is looking like this;
'89-'93 Jordan as the top 5
'88 Jordan and '86 Bird as the next 2.
I've always been a bit higher on '84-'85 Bird than '96 Jordan. But those 3 are next.
Then 2 of '87-'88 Bird and '97 Jordan.

I'm yet to settle on some exact spots though.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#7 » by falcolombardi » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:30 am

Odinn21 wrote:I don't think this project is moving forwards with such hesitancy. The previous Jordan comparison was against Olajuwon and Jordan outscaled Olajuwon with 3:1 ratio. Jordan's '88-'93 span was only split up by '93 Olajuwon ('94 version was fairly close to '88 Jordan as 7th) and I think it's fairly accepted that Olajuwon peaked a bit higher than Bird. So, Jordan dominating this comparison won't come off as a surprise. Because we already saw a pretty similar comparison yielding similar results.

I've always been lower on Jordan's defensive performance in '88 than most. I think I might have '86 Bird over '88 Jordan. But my mock-up list is looking like this;
'89-'93 Jordan as the top 5
'88 Jordan and '86 Bird as the next 2.
I've always been a bit higher on '84-'85 Bird than '96 Jordan. But those 3 are next.
Then 2 of '87-'88 Bird and '97 Jordan.

I'm yet to settle on some exact spots though.


interesting,why are you low on 88 jordan defense?
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#8 » by Odinn21 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:56 am

falcolombardi wrote:interesting,why are you low on 88 jordan defense?

His defensive performance is slightly overrated to me.

The things I generally tracked and did for guard and wing defense;
- How much unnecessary risks they take
- Compare that risks to their steals rates (for instance Jordan's gambling tendencies in 1987-89 span were too much in 1988 and his risk taking usually led unnecessary open and clear shots nearly 2 times a game, comparing that to his spg numbers, I labelled that "effective steal rate" at the time and Jordan's rate was 1.2 steals per game which is not as good as 3 steals per game would suggest. He jumped from 1.2 to 1.8-2.0 range in 1990. Wade's 2 spg numbers in 2009-11 span was almost as effective as '87-'89 Jordan for comparison. You can think of this as steals version of "blocks leading to possession gain" in a way)
- Forcing a turnover is not entirely present in steal numbers (an unrelated example, Gary Payton got credit for some things actually done by Nate McMillan in Seattle, Payton was overstated and McMillan was understated in numbers)

Surely, these are more specific aspects. I generally look at air and ground coverage. I just don't particularly fancy Jordan's defense in 1987-89 time frame.
Fwiw, crazy high effort and motor to his credit though. I should mention the good qualities as well. The prior points are just my specific reasons because you asked why. :)
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#9 » by LA Bird » Wed Sep 29, 2021 12:00 pm

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 1990 Jordan
3. 1993 Jordan
4. 1989 Jordan
5. 1988 Jordan
6. 1986 Bird
7. 1992 Jordan
8. 1984 Bird
9. 1996 Jordan
10. 1987 Bird
11. 1985 Bird
12. 1997 Jordan

Similar to the Jordan-Hakeem comparison, this one isn't particularly close. I don't like 92 for Jordan that much so it goes under peak Bird. Post-retirement Jordan was clearly worse than peak Jordan but I would say it's a still a little better than the best of Bird other than 84/86 when it comes to postseason offense. 88 Bird is the only season here that would be a negative on defense so it would be under 98 Jordan if the list was extended.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#10 » by homecourtloss » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:41 pm

1. Jordan, 1991 - Contention for GOAT season.
2. Jordan, 1990 —Just under his best season
3. Jordan, 1989 - Close to 1990 Jordan
4. 1986 Bird — peak bird with some of younger Bird’s defensive motor while a year or so away from peak offensive ability. The best combination of offense and defense for Bird, probably my favorite team to watch highlights of and basketball played so beautifully. I really wish we could have gotten a version that combines the fluidity of shooting that a 1988 Bird had with the motor and body of a younger Bird (Bird physically looks the best as a rookie or in 1981 as far as lean muscle and proportions are concerned); sadly, we never really got that but this is as close to a version we have.
5. Jordan, 1988 —not as polished
6. Bird, 1984
7. Jordan, 1993 —Better turnover economy than 1992 with a lower FTr (didn’t get as many calls in the regular season nor in the postseason) on a tired team; I only see Bird ‘86 and Bird ‘84 being better but even them I’m not too sure
8. Jordan, 1992
9. Jordan, 1996
10. Bird, 1985 [injury lowers value but overall I feel he’s better than ‘87 Bird
11. Bird, 1987
12. Jordan, 1997
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#11 » by sansterre » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:02 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
Djoker wrote:Bird has one of the best peaks in NBA history but vs. Jordan it's going to be tough. Outside of Bird's top 5 seasons from 1984-1988 I can't see any of his other seasons having any shot.


"It's going to be tough" mainly because the NBA added 6 garbage/AAA level teams 1989-1996.

Bird was only healthy before 1988-1989, before massive, decimating NBA Expansion.

1989-1998: 10 of the 30 teams had a winning percentage under .400. 4 teams were under .324, overall.

1980-1988: FOUR of the 23 teams were under .400. ONE was under .324, overall.


Jordan's records versus expansion teams, prior to each making the playoffs:

Heat: 95-233 (.295)

Magic: 106-249 (.298)

Timberwolves: 192-464 (.292)

Raptors: 135-243 (.357)

Grizzlies: 101-418 (.195)

Code: Select all

[b]Season   # of Teams With a .500 Record (or Worse)[/b]

88–89: 10 of 25 (40%)

89–90: 12 of 27 (44.4%)

90–91: 14 of 27 (51.8%)

91–92: 13 of 27 (48.1%)

92–93: 14 of 27 (51.8%)

94–95: 13 of 27 (48.1%)

95–96: 15 of 29 (51.7%)

96–97: 15 of 29 (51.7%)

97–98: 13 of 29 (44.8%)

01–02: 13 of 29 (44.8%)

02–03: 12 of 29 (41.3%)

Garbage league, relative to every other era since the 1950's, top to bottom.

Almost every regular here insists on perpetually/incessantly comparing players' stats (as if they're comparable, 1:1) between eras.

Totally false equivalencies and totally bogus comparisons.

Is it possible that you're conflating the bottom of the league getting way worse in terms of teams with the bottom of the league getting way worse in terms of players?
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#12 » by No-more-rings » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:32 pm

homecourtloss wrote:1. Jordan, 1991 - Contention for GOAT season.
2. Jordan, 1990 —Just under his best season
3. Jordan, 1989 - Close to 1990 Jordan
4. 1986 Bird — peak bird with some of younger Bird’s defensive motor while a year or so away from peak offensive ability. The best combination of offense and defense for Bird, probably my favorite team to watch highlights of and basketball played so beautifully. I really wish we could have gotten a version that combines the fluidity of shooting that a 1988 Bird had with the motor and body of a younger Bird (Bird physically looks the best as a rookie or in 1981 as far as lean muscle and proportions are concerned); sadly, we never really got that but this is as close to a version we have.
5. Jordan, 1988 —not as polished
6. Bird, 1984
7. Jordan, 1993 —Better turnover economy than 1992 with a lower FTr (didn’t get as many calls in the regular season nor in the postseason) on a tired team; I only see Bird ‘86 and Bird ‘84 being better but even them I’m not too sure
8. Jordan, 1992
9. Jordan, 1996
10. Bird, 1985 [injury lowers value but overall I feel he’s better than ‘87 Bird
11. Bird, 1987
12. Jordan, 1997

Why such a gap between 86 and 87 Bird?
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#13 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:54 pm

Bird's top seasons:

1986
1984
1987
1985
1988
1981
1982

Spoiler:
I have 1986 first for obvious reasons - probably his best postseason run along with top tier RS. The best combination of shooting, passing and defense.

The second choice is harder, but I decided to go with 1984. Highly underrated postseason run, while facing 4 of 9 best defenses (including two best defenses in the league). On top of that, it was one of his best defensive seasons when he still played a big part of the time at PF. From what I've seen, his shooting also improved notably that season, even though he didn't take a lot of threes yet.

1987 is an obvious next choice, probably his offensive peak overall. Unfortunately, his defense started to take a big hit. It was mostly visible in Pistons and Lakers series when he couldn't deal with Dantley's mastery and Lakers speed.

1985 and 1988 are similar - very strong regular seasons, but underperformances in playoffs. The difference on defense is massive though.

1981 and 1982 are close, I went with 1981 because of Sixers series comparison.


Jordan's top seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1993
1992
1988
1996
1997
1998
1987

Spoiler:
I think that Jordan definitely peaked in 1989-91 period. His decision making and off-ball tendencies notably improved between 1988 and 1989. I decided to go with consensus 1991 as the first choice (more experience in triangle offense), with 1990 slightly over 1989 due to better RS.

Why not 1992 or 1993? Because his motor on defensive end, along with his athleticism got visibly worse. He became more reliant on his jumpshot and didn't pressure defenses with drives nearly as much.

Why not 1988? Because his defensive style was still a bit wild during that time and he was still learning of how to break down defenses that focused on tunneling him to double teams. Jordan did considerably better job against Pistons in 1989-91 than in 1988.

I thought about putting 1996 higher, but I'm not sure how much of Jordan's change was caused due to stylistic differences and how much was related to him getting less and less athetic.

Some may be surprised of how low 1987 is, but I'm not high on that version of Jordan. He wasn't a good defender yet then, he made a lot of mistakes and gambled too much. On top of that, I don't like his offensive style either - way too high volume and limited playmaking role. Jordan didn't read defenses nearly as well in 1987.


My list:

1. 1991 Michael Jordan - Jordan's absolute peak is untouchable by Bird in my opinion.
2. 1990 Michael Jordan - roughly the same level as 1991, I prefer his movement in triangle offense more in 1991 though.
3. 1989 Michael Jordan - slightly less refined version in terms of decision making, but unreal motor and already ATG skillset.
4. 1993 Michael Jordan - it's getting closer, but Jordan's superior defender and more resiliant scorer in postseason. He didn't have the greatest RS, but his playoff performance was incredible.

5. 1986 Larry Bird - I am quite surprised that I'm the only one (along with homecourtloss) who has Bird inside top 5. I don't think 1992 Jordan gives you much more than Bird and to be honest, I'm more impressed with Bird's postseason run than Jordan's all things considered. Do I underrate 1992 Jordan? I'm open to discussion.

6. 1992 Michael Jordan - clearly the weakest from 1989-93 group, but still incredible.
7. 1984 Larry Bird - outstanding carryjob on offensive end and it's one of the better Bird's defensive seasons as well. 1988 Jordan was incredible in terms of motor and production, but I think that Bird was more nuanced offensive player at this point.
8. 1988 Michael Jordan - I'd have 1987 Bird ahead, but his defense got noticeably worse.
9. 1987 Larry Bird - incredible offensive season, likely Bird's offensive peak.
10. 1996 Michael Jordan - I'm more impressed with his postseason performance than Bird's one and they are comparable in RS.
11. 1985 Larry Bird - clearly superior player than any version of Jordan left, even with injury.
12. 1997 Michael Jordan - it's a close battle between 1997 MJ and 1988 Bird for the last spot. I struggle with this comparison, because Bird was much better player for most of the season in my opinion. At the same time, Jordan's season is simply more complete and it's tough for me to overlook Bird's weak defense and playoff underperformance.

It's probably the most one sided comparison I've made so far. That's because I'm not as high on Bird as some, though it seems that my list doesn't put him in a bad light next to other lists.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#14 » by Odinn21 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:43 pm

Top 7 seasons for Michael Jordan;
1991
1990
1989
1993
1992
1988
1996

Top 7 seasons for Larry Bird;
1986
1984
1985
1987
1988
1983/1982
1982/1981

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1991 Michael Jordan
2. 1990 Michael Jordan
3. 1989 Michael Jordan
4. 1993 Michael Jordan
5. 1992 Michael Jordan
6. 1986 Larry Bird
7. 1988 Michael Jordan
8. 1984 Larry Bird
9. 1996 Michael Jordan
10. 1985 Larry Bird
11. 1987 Larry Bird
12. 1997 Michael Jordan

- Well, as I stated earlier, the top end is dominated by Jordan.
- I watched 2 full games for each of '86 Bird and '88 Jordan, as explosive as Jordan was, my critique of his defensive game wasn't disproved on a check. So, I went with what I saw.

- 1985 Bird vs. 1996 Jordan was the toughest comparison for me in here. 1985 Bird was a better player than 1996 Jordan and I find Jordan's 1996 performance a bit too dependant on narrative and winning bias. I mean 1997 Jordan isn't actually far ahead of 1996. If anything 1996 and 1997 of him are similar to his own 1992 and 1993 performance. His performances in the playoffs in the latter seasons are much more consistent and much more convincing.
Another thing is, I don't find 2nd 3peat Jordan that different from '08-'10 Bryant (less scoring but higher playmaking value with worse defense compared to Jordan), that's another anchoring point. And when I think of a threeway comparison between Jordan/Bird/Bryant by adding Bryant, the outlook suggests me that there's a strong winning and narrative bias towards Jordan's 1996/1997.
With all these, I went with 1996 Jordan over 1985 Bird simply because the bar fight injury but I'm not sold on 1985 Bird not being that better than 1996 Jordan and still having thoughts about it.
And I would very much like to get other opinions on this.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#15 » by Djoker » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:53 am

Odinn,

While I don't disagree with your assessment of 1988 Jordan's defense, namely the gambling, it's too often said that Jordan's style of defense was high risk. However there is definitely a high reward aspect to it as well. A lot of Jordan's successful steals ended up as runaway dunks for him on the break, opportunities that wouldn't be there without those steals. I know you're aware of that but just thought I should point it out. I personally find 1988 Jordan to be his best defensive season because of just the shear havoc he caused. This was the highest revving defensive motor of his career and it was scary too. When a guy is getting 3.2 steals a game and so often converting them into points guys get scared, second guess their passes, look around so MJ doesn't sneak up on them when they have their backs turned. Kind of reminds me of that Pettit quote where he said Russell blocked his shot and then the second time he missed a lay up looking for him. MJ did instill fear with his defensive style too though obviously not like or as much as Russell. his defense was arguably more fundamentally sound in the second threepeat. I still prefer the Tasmanian devil in 1988 even with some whiffs but that's just me.

As for 1985 Bird vs. 1996 Jordan, I went for Jordan ahead of Bird and Larry's injury made it an easier choice. Why do you feel 1985 Bird is the better player? I don't think 1996 and 1997 MJ was really far below the 1988-1993 stretch. He declined in a sense that he had to pace himself in the regular season and rest a bit on defense but it was a slight decline in the big games not a major one IMO. And being on such dominant teams, even more dominant than the first threepeat teams, meant that he probably didn't have to go all out. The Bulls were never really pushed to the brink in either year in the playoffs. If they were I think we'd see performances like the Flu Game (except he'd be healthy) a lot more. Then there's also the slowing of pace and the league becoming more defensively minded as the 90's progressed. And the 1996 finals where he struggled doesn't help the perception.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#16 » by His Dudeness » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:41 am

1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 1989-90 Michael Jordan
3. 1988-89 Michael Jordan
4. 1992-93 Michael Jordan
5. 1991-92 Michael Jordan
6. 1985-86 Larry Bird
7. 1987-88 Michael Jordan
8. 1986-87 Larry Bird
9. 1984-85 Larry Bird
10. 1983-84 Larry Bird
11. 1995-96 Michael Jordan
12. 1996-97 Michael Jordan

I started out this series (Jordan v Olajuwon) actually being rather low on Michael Jordan’s 1991-92 season. Thankfully, this series is forcing me to look back more deeply on the individual campaigns of these players, and Jordan’s ‘92 season is the one I’ve been examining the most over the past week. His athleticism clearly isn’t as otherworldly as it was a few years prior, but his decision making was just so exceptional, and at least on par with his following season’s exploits. I’m not quite ready to move it above his ‘93 season, but they are both very similar in my mind.

The most troubling aspect to this matchup, for me, is that Bird did not have a season in my top 5, and nearly didn’t show up until the 7th spot (I’m high on Jordan’s ‘88 campaign). I’m not sure if this speaks more to me of underrating the greatness of Bird in his prime or a full examination of the absolute dominance Jordan displayed throughout his career.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#17 » by Odinn21 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:42 am

Djoker wrote:Odinn,

While I don't disagree with your assessment of 1988 Jordan's defense, namely the gambling, it's too often said that Jordan's style of defense was high risk. However there is definitely a high reward aspect to it as well. A lot of Jordan's successful steals ended up as runaway dunks for him on the break, opportunities that wouldn't be there without those steals. I know you're aware of that but just thought I should point it out. I personally find 1988 Jordan to be his best defensive season because of just the shear havoc he caused. This was the highest revving defensive motor of his career and it was scary too. When a guy is getting 3.2 steals a game and so often converting them into points guys get scared, second guess their passes, look around so MJ doesn't sneak up on them when they have their backs turned. Kind of reminds me of that Pettit quote where he said Russell blocked his shot and then the second time he missed a lay up looking for him. MJ did instill fear with his defensive style too though obviously not like or as much as Russell. his defense was arguably more fundamentally sound in the second threepeat. I still prefer the Tasmanian devil in 1988 even with some whiffs but that's just me.

Maybe I couldn't word it in the way I wanted to.

Imagine the situation as Jordan letting a mini fast-break in half-court with his (over)aggressiveness. Jordan's steals usually turned into open-court fast-break points and his failed attempts also did. When he gambled, didn't pay off, in that moment, he was not just slightly out of position, he was entirely out of position. He was giving up too many easy 2 on 1s or 3 on 2s. That sheer havoc as you referred to, didn't pay off as much as you'd think. That was kind of my point.

Djoker wrote:As for 1985 Bird vs. 1996 Jordan, I went for Jordan ahead of Bird and Larry's injury made it an easier choice. Why do you feel 1985 Bird is the better player? I don't think 1996 and 1997 MJ was really far below the 1988-1993 stretch.

Jordan was definitely a worse player than before when he came back. It's actually quite visible. He was stronger during the 2nd 3peat but he wasn't just as agile as before, he wasn't scoring on the efficiency he was scoring before (he lost around 5% relative ts), his playmaking value took a dive basically, his defense was also worse as he was picking his moments to play defense, his motor was lower, his awareness was different (a bit worse), etc.
1985 Bird was a better player because he was making a bigger difference for his team. Just simple as that. His playmaking volume was higher, his off-ball value was higher, he was a better passer, he was a better rebounder, he wasn't a better defender but he wasn't picking his moments unlike Jordan, so defensive end is kind of a wash. Surely Jordan was still a better scorer but that's not enough for me. 1985 was goat level regular season from him but that usually goes unnoticed due to the bar fight incident during the playoffs.

Djoker wrote:He declined in a sense that he had to pace himself in the regular season and rest a bit on defense but it was a slight decline in the big games not a major one IMO. And being on such dominant teams, even more dominant than the first threepeat teams, meant that he probably didn't have to go all out. The Bulls were never really pushed to the brink in either year in the playoffs. If they were I think we'd see performances like the Flu Game (except he'd be healthy) a lot more. Then there's also the slowing of pace and the league becoming more defensively minded as the 90's progressed. And the 1996 finals where he struggled doesn't help the perception.

Jordan always went all-out in the playoffs. There's no doubt about that. This looks like a media fed, narrative talking. To be honest, some of your argument is looking like for Jordan the myth, rather than Jordan the player.
In 1992, the Knicks and the Blazers
In 1993, the Knicks and the Suns
In 1996, the Sonics
In 1997, the Jazz
All of these teams were pretty great teams, demanded the best out of Jordan and Jordan brought his best against them. Some of them turned out to be entirely insane performances like 1993 NBA Finals (one shot away from a game 7 still) or rather below average performances like 1992 2nd round or 1996 NBA Finals.

Also we do not reward for players "the potential there was" in this project, do we? If we're going down that road, there's no point in recognising injuries (1985 Bird is a very alive example of this right now) or even issues without injuries such as LeBron James' issues during regular season in 2018.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#18 » by SNPA » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:36 am

His Dudeness wrote:1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 1989-90 Michael Jordan
3. 1988-89 Michael Jordan
4. 1992-93 Michael Jordan
5. 1991-92 Michael Jordan
6. 1985-86 Larry Bird
7. 1987-88 Michael Jordan
8. 1986-87 Larry Bird
9. 1984-85 Larry Bird
10. 1983-84 Larry Bird
11. 1995-96 Michael Jordan
12. 1996-97 Michael Jordan

I started out this series (Jordan v Olajuwon) actually being rather low on Michael Jordan’s 1991-92 season. Thankfully, this series is forcing me to look back more deeply on the individual campaigns of these players, and Jordan’s ‘92 season is the one I’ve been examining the most over the past week. His athleticism clearly isn’t as otherworldly as it was a few years prior, but his decision making was just so exceptional, and at least on par with his following season’s exploits. I’m not quite ready to move it above his ‘93 season, but they are both very similar in my mind.

The most troubling aspect to this matchup, for me, is that Bird did not have a season in my top 5, and nearly didn’t show up until the 7th spot (I’m high on Jordan’s ‘88 campaign). I’m not sure if this speaks more to me of underrating the greatness of Bird in his prime or a full examination of the absolute dominance Jordan displayed throughout his career.

The former.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#19 » by falcolombardi » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:37 am

the offensive value of jordan steals is already accounted for in his own scoring/assists and team offense numbers

including it when evaluating defense seems like double counting
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird 

Post#20 » by homecourtloss » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:55 am

His Dudeness wrote:1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 1989-90 Michael Jordan
3. 1988-89 Michael Jordan
4. 1992-93 Michael Jordan
5. 1991-92 Michael Jordan
6. 1985-86 Larry Bird
7. 1987-88 Michael Jordan
8. 1986-87 Larry Bird
9. 1984-85 Larry Bird
10. 1983-84 Larry Bird
11. 1995-96 Michael Jordan
12. 1996-97 Michael Jordan

I started out this series (Jordan v Olajuwon) actually being rather low on Michael Jordan’s 1991-92 season. Thankfully, this series is forcing me to look back more deeply on the individual campaigns of these players, and Jordan’s ‘92 season is the one I’ve been examining the most over the past week. His athleticism clearly isn’t as otherworldly as it was a few years prior, but his decision making was just so exceptional, and at least on par with his following season’s exploits. I’m not quite ready to move it above his ‘93 season, but they are both very similar in my mind.

The most troubling aspect to this matchup, for me, is that Bird did not have a season in my top 5, and nearly didn’t show up until the 7th spot (I’m high on Jordan’s ‘88 campaign). I’m not sure if this speaks more to me of underrating the greatness of Bird in his prime or a full examination of the absolute dominance Jordan displayed throughout his career.


Interesting thoughts—I hope you participate in the other matchups. I’ve only seen your posts in Jordan vs. Hakeem and Jordan vs. Bird.
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