Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:Kanyewest wrote:
The jogger is only putting himself in jeopardy not anyone else- that's not how Covid works. Plus I would be interested in the studies that cite how many head injuries joggers actually have. I fell down a couple of years ago jogging- not much happened.
I agree the data isn't great but it does outlie a hypothesis that getting vaccinated is safer than getting Covid and not. Even Trump got vaccinated after getting Covid.
A naturally immune person is not putting anybody at risk. Naturally immune people are really the only ones that don't transmit Covid because, unlike vaccination, natural immunity is sterilizing immunity.
Hard to say that definitively. This is the prevalent thinking that was discussed to me by a scientist earlier today.
The problem is, it's very variable. And by that, I mean you could have had a mild case of COVID and may not have developed many antibodies. Or you might have got it early on, before the Delta variant existed. And you may not have protection against that variant.
What we do know with the vaccines, is they give a much more durable and stronger response. What do I mean by that? It means the response is creating more antibodies than if you just got COVID and developed antibodies and protection. They also last longer, probably at least six months, whereas natural immunity, when you get it from COVID-- that could just be a couple of months.
https://www.webmd.com/coronavirus-in-context/video/vaccination-after-infectionBasically if you had very strong symptoms, then you are more likely to get natural immunity. But according to WebMD, there is a good possibility it may not be as long lasting as the vaccine whereas others will disagree with this point as the scientific consensus is evolving.
They were saying that from the beginning, but we have data now that shows that natural immunity fades much slower than vaccinated immunity.
What happens is, the vaccination gives you a massive amount of antibody titers early on - way more than is necessary to fight Covid. But the antibody level decays rapidly, at about 40% a month. Meanwhile, natural immunity starts off at a lower level, decays slowly, then the decay almost totally stops.
You only need about 50 AU/ml to fight off Covid (best guess, people are different). The vaccine gave recipients an average of a whopping titer level of 12153 AU/ml in the first month. But that level decays by about 40% a month to 6848 in Month 2, then 3476, 2383, 1552, 1122, and 765 by Month 7. Because there's a large standard deviation in those monthly averages, by month 7, 16% of people had an antibody titer level below 50.
Compare that to natural immunity, which only starts you off at a 1914 AU/ml. However, the decay is only 5% a month, dropping to 1739 in Month 2, then 1552, 1195, 1079 by Month 5. It then leveled off in the 800-900 range after than, measuring 860 in Month 6, 904 in Month 7, 850 in Month 8, 901 in Month 9, and 731 in Month 10. Due to the standard deviation, about 10% had a titer level below 50 by Month 4, but that number remained fixed through Month 10, meaning even at Month 10, 90% of participants had a titer level above 50.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111v1.full.pdfThe bottom line is that vaccination does not appear to give the body a permanent ability to maintain antibody levels - or at least the trend looks that way through 7 months of study. Natural vaccination looks more permanent.
By the way, this study measures, the IgG antibodies in the blood. Those are the ones that prevent serious illness, but don't do much to stop the initial attack (and therefore allow Covid positive people to transmit the virus for several days). The sterilizing antibodies are the IgA antibodies in the mucosa. Vaccines provide virtually none of that. Natural immunity does. The naturally immune are therefore significantly less likely to be spreaders of the virus.
I'll cede that it is possible that an extremely mild initial case of Covid may not produce a significant antibody response. I would expect Beal to test his antibodies before declaring his natural immunity equivalent to vaccination.
The other caveat is this is another "petri dish study". IgG antibodies are not the only facet of immune resistance. One would want to see real world data consistent with this trend before concluding the vaccination immunity fades more quickly. Of course, that is exactly what we are seeing in real life in the countries that vaccinated earliest (Israel, UK, Scotland).
