The 1972 Chicago Bulls (#23) @ The 1975 Washington Bullets (#10)
Overall:
Record: ‘75 Bullets, 60 wins (5th) > '72 Bulls, 57 wins (14th)
RSRS: '72 Bulls, +7.91 (6th) > ‘75 Bullets, +6.53 (10th)
PSRS: ‘75 Bullets, +7.07 (15th) > '72 Bulls, +1.65 (32nd)
When the '72 Bulls have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Bulls' offense vs '75 Bullets’ defense:
Regular Season: +4.0 Offensive Rating (5th) vs -6.4 Defensive Rating (2nd): -2.4 expected
Playoffs: +1.1 Offensive Rating (26th) vs -4.6 Defensive Rating (12th): -3.5 expected
Lineup:
PG: Norm Van Lier, 16.2% SS on +2.0% rTS, 11.1 / 4.0 / 6.5
SG: Jerry Sloan, 19.9% SS on -2.2% rTS, 14.9 / 7.7 / 2.4
SF: Chet Walker, 24.9% SS on +7.9% rTS, 20.3 / 5.6 / 2.1
PF: Bob Love, 29.3% SS on -1.4% rTS, 23.8 / 6.1 / 1.5
C: Clifford Ray, 12.6% SS on +3.0% rTS, 6.4 / 9.8 / 2.9
6th: Bob Weiss: 16.9% SS on -1.2% rTS, 10.4 / 1.9 / 4.2
When the '75 Bullets have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '75 Bullets' offense vs '72 Bulls' defense:
Regular Season: +0.3 Offensive Rating (30th) vs -3.6 Defensive Rating (17th): -3.3 expected
Playoffs: +1.4 Offensive Rating (24th) vs -0.1 Defensive Rating (28th): +1.3 expected
Lineup:
PG: Kevin Porter, 16.2% SS on +1.7% rTS, 10.9 / 1.8 / 7.5 / 1.9: +1.2 playoff OBPM
SG: Phil Chenier, 27.3% SS on -0.6% rTS, 20.5 / 3.6 / 3.0 / 2.9: +3.4 playoff OBPM
SF: Nick Weatherspoon, 21.4% SS on -0.8% rTS, 7.1 / 4.0 / 0.6 / 1.0: +1.0 playoff OBPM
PF: Elvin Hayes, 25.4% SS on -0.6% rTS, 21.7 / 11.5 / 2.4 / 4.0: +2.6 playoff OBPM
C: Wes Unseld, 10.0% SS on +3.6% rTS, 8.7 / 13.9 / 3.9 / 2.4: +3.5 playoff OBPM
6th: Mike Riordan, 23.4% SS on +1.2% rTS, 14.5 / 3.6 / 2.5 / 1.0: -2.3 playoff OBPM
Thoughts:
-Injuries: None . . . maybe?
-My instinct was to write about the regular season comparison, about how their RSRS actually favors the Bulls but that ‘72 was such a lopsided season that it’s hard to tell how seriously to take things. But the problem is that the Bulls got obliterated in the playoffs, suffering a 4-0 sweep by 10 points per game. So then I wanted to write about how seriously we should or should not take that result (since it happened at the hands of the ‘72 Lakers). But I don’t think that’s the thing to talk about either. Let’s talk about Chet Walker. Bob Love may have been the Bulls’ leading scorer (on the 3rd best offense in the league, behind only the Lakers and Bucks) but Chet Walker was almost certainly their most valuable offensive player. 25% ShotShare on +8% rTS is fantastic, especially in the 70s. The BackPicks OBPM has Walker tied for 4th with Walt Frazier, just behind Gail Goodrich. And his ScoreVal (estimated BPM driven purely by scoring) was actually 2nd, a healthy ways behind Kareem. What I’m saying is that ‘72 Chet Walker was really good on offense.
I’m pretty sure he was injured going into the playoffs.
He went from 33.2 MPG in the regular season to 24.3 MPG in the playoffs. He went from 25% ShotShare and +8% rTS in the regular season to 20.7% ShotShare and -0.4% rTS (not adjusted for opponent) in the playoffs. And I know that Win Shares suck, but he went from 0.268 WS/48 in the regular season to 0.073 in the playoffs. Regression against the ‘72 Lakers would be to be expected. But his minutes dropping by a ton, his volume dropping by a ton and his efficiency by 8%? That doesn’t read like facing a great defense, or even having a bad series, that reads like him not being himself. I couldn’t find written evidence of an injury (I didn’t look that hard) but I’m fairly sure of it.
And if that’s all true, it means that the ‘72 Bulls who look excellent in the regular season are actually basically missing their best player for the purposes of this tournament. Which sucks. If anyone else has better information I'm all ears, but that’s what I’m seeing.
-The ‘75 Bullets did not have a particularly strong offense. They didn’t get to the line much, they didn’t offensive rebound much and they only shot okay. Their offense held up fine in the playoffs (though they only faced one strong defense in the Celtics) but it was nothing to brag about. But their defense was characteristically excellent. They played good shot defense and they forced a ton of turnovers. Odinn has pointed out that this was slightly fluky (surrounding years don’t have this pattern) but that doesn’t mean that the ‘75 Bullets weren’t ball-hawks of the highest order (the ‘71 and ‘73 Lakers weren’t ATG teams, but the ‘72 Lakers certainly were). Phil Chenier had his best steal% in ‘75, but ‘74 and ‘76 were almost as good. Kevin Porter had a definite outlier year on that front. For whatever reason the ‘75 Bullets were excellent on that front, and their defense was outstanding.
-I’m curious about this matchup. Chenier was the main shot-maker for the Bullets and Sloan is not an easy matchup for him with his height advantage. And Bob Love’s shot-taking versatility won’t make Hayes’ life easy (though Hayes is a strong defender in any case, and that still leaves Unseld in the middle). But ultimately, if Chet Walker is indeed playing injured (ie, his playoff performance wasn’t an outlier but truly representative of his capabilities at that time) I don’t see the Bulls competing seriously here.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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