Magic Number Count 2021

[Parataxis]

Currently the Magic Number to make the post-season is 11 (vs the Yankees).

With three games against the Yankees, the Jays currently control their own destiny.

[Parataxis]

The Magic Number is still 11.

With three games against the Yankees, the Jays still control their own destiny, but only barely.

[Parataxis]

With the Yankees's win this afternoon, our Magic number is now 11 against both the Yankees and the Red Sox for the second wildcard spot.

The Jays control their own destiny against the Yankees, but not against the Sox.

[Parataxis]

Jays win! Puts the Magic number at 10 for both the Yankees and the Red Sox.

[Parataxis]

Jays win! Boston loses to the Yankees.

Magic Number versus the Yankees is 9 (still controllng their own destiny). Magic Number versus the Red Sox is 8 (we need Boston losses).

Six games to go.

[Parataxis]

Yankees win, Blue Jays lose, Boston (somehow) loses to the Orioles.

Magic number vs the Yankees remains at 9. Magic number versus the Red Sox is at 7.

With five games left to go, the Blue Jays no longer control their own destiny.

[radeonboy]

Yankees win, Blue Jays lose, Boston (somehow) loses to the Orioles.

Magic number vs the Yankees remains at 9. Magic number versus the Red Sox is at 7.

With five games left to go, the Blue Jays no longer control their own destiny.

Most likely Blue Jays miss the playoff wildcard, but hoping they make it interesting.

[Parataxis]

Blue Jays win, Yankees lose. Boston up by 6 in the 9th.

Magic number against both the Yankees and Red Sox is at 7.

Four games to go, Blue Jays need losses from the teams above them to make it.

[mdenny]

Blue Jays win, Yankees lose. Boston up by 6 in the 9th.

Magic number against both the Yankees and Red Sox is at 7.

Four games to go, Blue Jays need losses from the teams above them to make it.

I'm confused....how can the magic number against both teams be the same if NY is ahead of the Sox by a full game?

[Schad]

If we're talking about the Jays making the playoffs outright, I believe that the magic number for the Red Sox is 6, and for the Yankees it's 7. As an example, if the Jays win all 4 of their remaining games, they'll finish on 92 wins. If the Red Sox lose 2 of their 4 remaining games, they'll finish on 91.

If we're talking about at least getting a play-in, it becomes 5 and 6, respectively.

[Parataxis]

Blue Jays win, Yankees lose. Boston up by 6 in the 9th.

Magic number against both the Yankees and Red Sox is at 7.

Four games to go, Blue Jays need losses from the teams above them to make it.

I'm confused....how can the magic number against both teams be the same if NY is ahead of the Sox by a full game?

Because I'm a dumdum and treating tiebreakers as deciders, rather than as creating home field advantage for a game 163. Started this when I was overtired, and then just trusted myself. FFS. Whoops. Or just mathing badly.

To OUTRIGHT the Red Sox, Magic Number is 6. (2 Jays wins, and 4 Boston Losses = Jays at 90 wins, Boston 89. 3 Jays wins, 3 boston losses = Jays at 91, Boston at 90. 4 Jays wins, 2 Boston Losses = Jays at 92, Boston at 91)
To OUTRIGHT the Yankees is 7. (3 Jays wins, 4 Yankees Losses = Jays at 91 wins, Yankees at 90, 4 Jays wins, 3 Yankees Losses = Jays at 92 wins, Yankees at 91)

Or maybe not. It's late, and math is hard.

[mdenny]

Blue Jays win, Yankees lose. Boston up by 6 in the 9th.

Magic number against both the Yankees and Red Sox is at 7.

Four games to go, Blue Jays need losses from the teams above them to make it.

I'm confused....how can the magic number against both teams be the same if NY is ahead of the Sox by a full game?

Because I'm a dumdum and treating tiebreakers as deciders, rather than as creating home field advantage for a game 163. Started this when I was overtired, and then just trusted myself. FFS. Whoops. Or just mathing badly.

To OUTRIGHT the Red Sox, Magic Number is 6. (2 Jays wins, and 4 Boston Losses = Jays at 90 wins, Boston 89. 3 Jays wins, 3 boston losses = Jays at 91, Boston at 90. 4 Jays wins, 2 Boston Losses = Jays at 92, Boston at 91)
To OUTRIGHT the Yankees is 7. (3 Jays wins, 4 Yankees Losses = Jays at 91 wins, Yankees at 90, 4 Jays wins, 3 Yankees Losses = Jays at 92 wins, Yankees at 91)

Or maybe not. It's late, and math is hard.

I don't know much about the whole 'magic number' thing so I thought maybe it had something to do with the jays still having a game against the Yanks.

I remember 'magic number' from when I was a kid and the Jays first made the playoffs to play Kansas City. It's pretty foggy....but i believe the season came down to a 3 game series against the Yankees. I DO remember that the final out that sealed our playoff birth was caught in left field by George Bell. He fell to his knees while catching the ball and I thought he might have dropped it.

In anycase....we lost to KC. A serious injury to Tony Fernandez' elbow screwed us over if memory serves. He was turning a double play and happened to fall on a weird part of the surface that didn't have any give.

[mdenny]

I'm confused....how can the magic number against both teams be the same if NY is ahead of the Sox by a full game?

Because I'm a dumdum and treating tiebreakers as deciders, rather than as creating home field advantage for a game 163. Started this when I was overtired, and then just trusted myself. FFS. Whoops. Or just mathing badly.

To OUTRIGHT the Red Sox, Magic Number is 6. (2 Jays wins, and 4 Boston Losses = Jays at 90 wins, Boston 89. 3 Jays wins, 3 boston losses = Jays at 91, Boston at 90. 4 Jays wins, 2 Boston Losses = Jays at 92, Boston at 91)
To OUTRIGHT the Yankees is 7. (3 Jays wins, 4 Yankees Losses = Jays at 91 wins, Yankees at 90, 4 Jays wins, 3 Yankees Losses = Jays at 92 wins, Yankees at 91)

Or maybe not. It's late, and math is hard.

I don't know much about the whole 'magic number' thing so I thought maybe it had something to do with the jays still having a game against the Yanks.

I remember 'magic number' from when I was a kid and the Jays first made the playoffs to play Kansas City. It's pretty foggy....but i believe the season came down to a 3 game series against the Yankees. I DO remember that the final out that sealed our playoff birth was caught in left field by George Bell. He fell to his knees while catching the ball and I thought he might have dropped it.

In anycase....we lost to KC. A serious injury to Tony Fernandez' elbow screwed us over if memory serves. He was turning a double play and happened to fall on a weird part of the surface that didn't have any give.

I found it. This was either the last game of the regular season or second last. This was HUGE in toronto at that time:

https://youtu.be/ksTqH28JHWk

The mayor recited a poem:

Oh canada is our anthem
The blue jays are blue.
We beat dem old yanks
And we'll beat KC too

[The_Hater]

Shouldn’t the magic number be calculated to the 5th place team and not the 4th place team? We weren’t ever chasing the Yankees spot over the Sox.

[Parataxis]

Shouldn’t the magic number be calculated to the 5th place team and not the 4th place team? We weren’t ever chasing the Yankees spot over the Sox.

When you're in a playoff position, you count the Magic number from the team below you. When you're not in a playoff position, you need to count it from the teams that ARE in a playoff position.

Hitting our magic number against Seattle doesn't do anything for us if the Red Sox and Yankees still finish the season above us.

[The_Hater]

Shouldn’t the magic number be calculated to the 5th place team and not the 4th place team? We weren’t ever chasing the Yankees spot over the Sox.

When you're in a playoff position, you count the Magic number from the team below you. When you're not in a playoff position, you need to count it from the teams that ARE in a playoff position.

Hitting our magic number against Seattle doesn't do anything for us if the Red Sox and Yankees still finish the season above us.

I didn’t mention the M’s in my post just the 5th place Sox.

It doesn’t matter if the Jays finish 4th or 5th because they’re both playoff spots. Therefore the Yankees are not the team where the magic number is measured against anymore then the Rays are. We can literally pretend they don’t exist as long as we catch the Sox and M’s.

[Parataxis]

Shouldn’t the magic number be calculated to the 5th place team and not the 4th place team? We weren’t ever chasing the Yankees spot over the Sox.

When you're in a playoff position, you count the Magic number from the team below you. When you're not in a playoff position, you need to count it from the teams that ARE in a playoff position.

Hitting our magic number against Seattle doesn't do anything for us if the Red Sox and Yankees still finish the season above us.

I didn’t mention the M’s in my post just the 5th place Sox.

It doesn’t matter if the Jays finish 4th or 5th because they’re both playoff spots. Therefore the Yankees are not the team where the magic number is measured against anymore then the Rays are. We can literally pretend they don’t exist as long as we catch the Sox and M’s.

Right now, I don't know if we'll catch either the Yankees or the Red Sox. It doesn't matter which we catch, as long as we catch one of them. Both are still technically within range.

[Parataxis]

Yankees beat Blue Jays. Boston loses to the Orioles again.

Magic number for Boston (and the Mariners) is 5.

Jays can no longer finish ahead of the Yankees.

There's three games left.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

it could come down to the last game. 3 games remaining for each team.

Jays are screwed if Mariners and Red Sox win their remaining games.

Three teams tied for second Wild Card spot

This would play out in similar fashion to three teams being tied for two spots, with teams choosing designations, and the winner of Club A vs Club B having to face the winner of Club C vs Club A-Club B loser. The only difference in, there’s only 1 spot up for grabs.

to get a 2 or 3 way tie, i believe:

Jays sweep, Red Sox/Mariners win 2/3 (possible)
Jays go 1/3, Red Sox/Mariners lose all remaining games (unlikely)

to outright win the wildcard:

Jays sweep and Red Sox/ Mariners go 1/3 each
Jays go 2/3 and Red Sox/ Mariners go winless.

Mariners playing a 3 game set against the Angels
Red Sox playing a 3 game set against the Nationals
Jays playing a 3 game set against the Orioles

not looking good even if the Jays sweep. lol 2 or 3 way tie is probably the best hope for the Jays now.

[Parataxis]

it could come down to the last game. 3 games remaining for each team.

Jays are screwed if Mariners and Red Sox win their remaining games.

Three teams tied for second Wild Card spot

This would play out in similar fashion to three teams being tied for two spots, with teams choosing designations, and the winner of Club A vs Club B having to face the winner of Club C vs Club A-Club B loser. The only difference in, there’s only 1 spot up for grabs.

to get a 2 or 3 way tie, i believe:

Jays sweep, Red Sox/Mariners win 2/3 (possible)
Jays go 1/3, Red Sox/Mariners lose all remaining games (unlikely)

*TECHNICALLY* if the Yankees get swept by the Rays, I think a four way tie is still possible as well.