Offseason

[DusterBuster]

There is talk from Philly's beat writer that the current trade of Simmons are some picks and pick swaps
and now a solid but non all-star level player.

Now if NO is willing to put CJ on the table, Portland is firmly in the mix to finally get it done.

I would think Wiggins and picks for Simmons is more likely what the supposed offer is that the Philly beat writer is talking about.

I genuinely think the Blazers are out on Simmons.

[DusterBuster]

According to Quick, he pretty plainly flat out said the Blazers are interested in Simmons, but only at a 1 for 1 deal. Which likely means they’re only willing to do a deal of a straight swap of CJ for Simmons… no picks or additional assets

[Goldbum]

That feels like a negotiating technique. Designed to make Philly back off the super high asking price.

So lets say it's a tiny bit more than straight 1 for 1 now Philly feels better about getting less because they got us to move off our position....
To any cap gurus who read this: is including Ant in a 2 for 1 and signing either DSJ or Cook to a minimum deal enough to get us under the tax?
My gut says NO doesn't want to trade ANT if we move CJ, but we DID sign McLemore as a replacement if Simmons runs 2nd unit PG...

[BlazersBroncos]

There isnt any indication that the gulf b/t CJ and Ben is a FRP, but I sure as hell hope we at least floated that offer.

I also think ANT is for sure staying if we move CJ. In fact we basically need to keep him. Moving offense for defense means we need to lean on ANT developing as a bench scorer. We need him to develop to have any semblance of bench firepower. All the other bench players are hustle guys, 3/D, defenders, etc.

[Wizenheimer]

According to Quick, he pretty plainly flat out said the Blazers are interested in Simmons, but only at a 1 for 1 deal. Which likely means they’re only willing to do a deal of a straight swap of CJ for Simmons… no picks or additional assets

"pretty plainly flat out said"...? is that not quite to flat out, or somewhere past it?

Quick is a much better writer of human interest stories than he is as a trade speculator. So I'd be skeptical of that being the case. There are only two contracts on the Blazers that would work in a one-for-one deal, Dame's & CJ's. And the Blazers won't be trading Dame

now, I will not believe that Olshey will ever trade CJ until hell freezes or it happens; I'd probably bet money on it. Olshey even made noise yesterday hinting he has no intention of breaking up the Dame/CJ pairing. My thinking is that Olshey is all-in on a coaching change giving Portland a giant step up into contention. He's desperate to be proven right on the roster "not being the problem". So I don't anticipate any more significant changes. They have signed 4 vets for training camp contracts and it will be an open competition among them for the 14th roster spot

however, if Portland craps the bed and is looking like either a play-in team or a lottery team approaching the trade deadline, there could be some big changes. But the biggest change that needs to happen is a new GM, and it won't with an absentee landlord

[Wizenheimer]

To any cap gurus who read this: is including Ant in a 2 for 1 and signing either DSJ or Cook to a minimum deal enough to get us under the tax? .

Portland is 1.33M over the tax line. Simmons salary is 2.1M more than CJ's. So that would put Portland about 3.4M over the line. Ant's salary is 3.9M, so yeah, that would get the Blazers under the tax

There isnt any indication that the gulf b/t CJ and Ben is a FRP, but I sure as hell hope we at least floated that offer. .

Simmons is a 3-time all-star and a two time first team defense player who finished 2nd in DPOY. He's 6'11, can defend 5 positions, and can consistently run an offense. Yes, he's got a flaw as a perimeter shooter, but for his career he has averaged 1.375 points/shot while CJ has averaged 1.187. CJ has averaged 16 FGA while Simmons has averaged 12. If you split the difference and give Simmons 14 FGA in Portland, the Blazers would average 2.6 more points a game with Simmons than with CJ, and we know their defense would be better. And after all the chatter about how poorly Simmons played in the playoffs, CJ was even worse

Portland set the difference between Ariza and RoCo as two 1st round picks; they set the difference between Jones and Nance as a 1st round pick. If they didn't set the difference between CJ and Simmons as at least one first round pick than Olshey is just gaslighting the world with his blind CJ infatuation

that's not to say that Simmons hasn't put the 76ers in a bad position in terms of leverage, because he has

bottom line is Blazers could have 3 options as a starting lineup or closing lineup: Dame-CJ-Powell-RoCo-Nurkic or Dame-Powell-RoCo-Simmons-Nurkic or Dame-Powell-RoCo-Nance-Simmons. To me, that's an easy choice

of course, it could be Philly doesn't have much interest in CJ and believe he wouldn't help them contend any more than CJ has helped Portland contend

[JasonStern]

I'm sure some lowball offer was made for Simmons - Olshey does love his dumpster dive reclamation projects. But I'm sure 5+ other teams made better offers, and even those have been rejected so far. The Nance trade was the sign that the Blazers moved on. So the only real question is who gets the 14th roster spot and does Olshey make some small move to get under the luxury tax?

[Norm2953]

The GSW don't seem interested in adding Simmons especially now with Wiggins possibly missing all their
home games if he refuses to get vaccinated. Makes me wonder if the prominent unvaccinated players
like Kyrie, Wiggins and Beal are radioactive from a trade standpoint.

Teams are getting into their training camps and its time something gets done. I've thought Portland has had
a standing offer for Simmons for some time but eventually even Portland will have to move on and play with
the team they have and Simmons will end up with a team like the Spurs.

[GEE]

There is talk from Philly's beat writer that the current trade of Simmons are some picks and pick swaps
and now a solid but non all-star level player.

Now if NO is willing to put CJ on the table, Portland is firmly in the mix to finally get it done.

I would think Wiggins and picks for Simmons is more likely what the supposed offer is that the Philly beat writer is talking about.

I genuinely think the Blazers are out on Simmons.

My feelings on this topic, are plentiful: First off... agree about GS, in that I believe they are one of the very few teams that would currently be willing to gamble on Simmons, and might make an offer similar to what Portland could, and should offer. If Olshey is unwilling to put CJ on the table, He should get canned!

The Sixers and Blazers are the two teams in the NBA that just feel so very unfinished, and obvious trading partners. Part of me feels like both parties have just been holding out up to now. Future picks obviously should not matter much, and I just hope Quick is a leak to maybe, finally offer up CJ for Simmons straight up, hoping Morey under the current pressure will cave on his dreams of Dame and counter back with CJ + the world. Olshey then to counter with CJ + two FRPs + filler. Philly could maybe flip one of our scrubs and those picks into another win-now piece, to go along with CJ.

Yesterday was media day for those Sixers, and today is day #1 of camp. Things are sure to heat up fast. I think Olshey would be smart to play it fairly cool, like, "I'd love to do a CJ trade with you Daryl, but I'll be happy too, rolling with what I got", knowing Morey needs to trade him like yesterday, right? Olshey must also have a pretty good idea of what he's up against as far as offers from other teams; Can't imagine there are that many serious one's at this point, and I doubt any are better than CJ. This drama can't last much longer, and I hope Vegas has it right.

[Wizenheimer]

My feelings on this topic, are plentiful.

"plentiful feelings"....wasn't that a 60's song from The Lovin' Spoonful?

sorry GEE....if there's any opportunity for a bad joke I'll walk thru that door

[JasonStern]

I genuinely think the Blazers are out on Simmons.

The Sixers and Blazers are the two teams in the NBA that just feel so very unfinished, and obvious trading partners. Part of me feels like both parties have just been holding out up to now. Future picks obviously should not matter much, and I just hope Quick is a leak to maybe, finally offer up CJ for Simmons straight up, hoping Morey under the current pressure will cave on his dreams of Dame and counter back with CJ + the world. Olshey then to counter with CJ + two FRPs + filler. Philly could maybe flip one of our scrubs and those picks into another win-now piece, to go along with CJ.

Agree with DusterBuster. Including the 1st and the pick protection associated with it in the Nance trade likely means the Blazers are out on any Simmons trade. Sucks but if you're expecting some blockbuster trade from Olshey then you haven't been paying attention the last nine seasons.

[Wizenheimer]

I genuinely think the Blazers are out on Simmons.

The Sixers and Blazers are the two teams in the NBA that just feel so very unfinished, and obvious trading partners. Part of me feels like both parties have just been holding out up to now. Future picks obviously should not matter much, and I just hope Quick is a leak to maybe, finally offer up CJ for Simmons straight up, hoping Morey under the current pressure will cave on his dreams of Dame and counter back with CJ + the world. Olshey then to counter with CJ + two FRPs + filler. Philly could maybe flip one of our scrubs and those picks into another win-now piece, to go along with CJ.

Agree with DusterBuster. Including the 1st and the pick protection associated with it in the Nance trade likely means the Blazers are out on any Simmons trade. Sucks but if you're expecting some blockbuster trade from Olshey then you haven't been paying attention the last nine seasons.

it does seem real convenient for Olshey if he's still stubborn about trading CJ: "look, I would have made the trade but Philly wanted some draft picks and I didn't have any to give"

[DusterBuster]

I wonder what the over/under is on Olshey resigning if Dame demands a trade but before news of that hits the media - a la Morey before Harden demanded his trade publicly?

[BNM]

The Sixers and Blazers are the two teams in the NBA that just feel so very unfinished, and obvious trading partners. Part of me feels like both parties have just been holding out up to now. Future picks obviously should not matter much, and I just hope Quick is a leak to maybe, finally offer up CJ for Simmons straight up, hoping Morey under the current pressure will cave on his dreams of Dame and counter back with CJ + the world. Olshey then to counter with CJ + two FRPs + filler. Philly could maybe flip one of our scrubs and those picks into another win-now piece, to go along with CJ.

Agree with DusterBuster. Including the 1st and the pick protection associated with it in the Nance trade likely means the Blazers are out on any Simmons trade. Sucks but if you're expecting some blockbuster trade from Olshey then you haven't been paying attention the last nine seasons.

it does seem real convenient for Olshey if he's still stubborn about trading CJ: "look, I would have made the trade but Philly wanted some draft picks and I didn't have any to give"

That doesn't seem at all convenient for Olshey. It's basically admitting he **** up and blew all our future FRPs on role players when he could have had an all star and 1st team all defensive player instead. When has Olshey ever admitted he **** up anything?

[Matt800]

I was thinking that Lillard has some ways to encourage a CJ for Simmons trade if he wants that. PHI reportedly is trying to hold out for Lillard so he could let that ride for a bit until PHI is more desperate with their season in jeopardy from Simmons sitting. Then he could say he wont be asking for a trade this season, forcing PHI to look for the next best offer. I think its more likely that Lillard wants to keep CJ or doesnt care but still he is in an interesting position if he did want to get Simmons.

The other thing is if CJ starts the season well and the team is winning, does Portland still consider a Simmons for CJ swap?

[BlazersBroncos]

How Philly thinks we would move a player not only better as a pure BBall talent, but night and day better as a leader who represents the face of the franchise for a guy like Ben is just nuts to me.

Simmons is a great player, but he cant carry a team. Not on the court or off.

[Wizenheimer]

How Philly thinks we would move a player not only better as a pure BBall talent, but night and day better as a leader who represents the face of the franchise for a guy like Ben is just nuts to me.

Simmons is a great player, but he cant carry a team. Not on the court or off.

well, the reports are that one, Olshey and Morey are friends; and two, that Olshey and Morey have been talking about Simmons for weeks. So then, if Morey was holding out hope for Dame do you think he would have done that if Olshey would have shut it down right from the beginning?

[Case2012]

I think what it comes down to is that Dame isn't willing to let CJ go, which is the only realistic way to get to the next level. I'm sure olshey explained that and it probably is the reason Lillard chilled out on his expectations and is playing to his loyalty brand again. Does Dame want a better team? Yes. It's Dame willing to let his best friend get traded? Probably not. So if you're olshey, do you piss off Dame by trading CJ or piss off Dame by not getting another star? Pick your poison. Ultimately, this season comes down to billups ability to implement a system that gets the most out of the entire roster with a more defense and team first style of basketball, which is what Terry was either unwilling or unable to do.

[Roy The Natural]

To any cap gurus who read this: is including Ant in a 2 for 1 and signing either DSJ or Cook to a minimum deal enough to get us under the tax? .

Portland is 1.33M over the tax line. Simmons salary is 2.1M more than CJ's. So that would put Portland about 3.4M over the line. Ant's salary is 3.9M, so yeah, that would get the Blazers under the tax

There isnt any indication that the gulf b/t CJ and Ben is a FRP, but I sure as hell hope we at least floated that offer. .

Simmons is a 3-time all-star and a two time first team defense player who finished 2nd in DPOY. He's 6'11, can defend 5 positions, and can consistently run an offense. Yes, he's got a flaw as a perimeter shooter, but for his career he has averaged 1.375 points/shot while CJ has averaged 1.187. CJ has averaged 16 FGA while Simmons has averaged 12. If you split the difference and give Simmons 14 FGA in Portland, the Blazers would average 2.6 more points a game with Simmons than with CJ, and we know their defense would be better. And after all the chatter about how poorly Simmons played in the playoffs, CJ was even worse

Portland set the difference between Ariza and RoCo as two 1st round picks; they set the difference between Jones and Nance as a 1st round pick. If they didn't set the difference between CJ and Simmons as at least one first round pick than Olshey is just gaslighting the world with his blind CJ infatuation

that's not to say that Simmons hasn't put the 76ers in a bad position in terms of leverage, because he has

bottom line is Blazers could have 3 options as a starting lineup or closing lineup: Dame-CJ-Powell-RoCo-Nurkic or Dame-Powell-RoCo-Simmons-Nurkic or Dame-Powell-RoCo-Nance-Simmons. To me, that's an easy choice

of course, it could be Philly doesn't have much interest in CJ and believe he wouldn't help them contend any more than CJ has helped Portland contend

I agree with Simmons being good... but there's some misinformation in here. Simmons sucks at guarding the 5, and isn't a good rim protector or interior help defender. He's a premiere perimeter defender though. People really don't actually understand who Simmons is on defense. He's not Draymond. He's really really good, but he doesn't provide the level of versatility defensively that Draymond did at his peak and if you're expecting that, you're going to be wildly disappointed. Simply put, Simmons is a really good defender, but not a defensive anchor.

I also think your PPP measurements are missing the mark here. Ben Simmons efficiency is in part due to his limited FGAs. He quite simply at his current skillset doesn't have the capability to scale that efficiency up.

I would argue that it's more likely that CJ will stay in that 58% TS range going forward than regress to his career norms. The same range that Simmons resides in due to his subpar finishing ability on drives (52.4%). CJs increase in efficiency was pretty much entirely sustainable and a direct result of increasing the volume his of 3pa.

Another thing that people don't understand about Simmons is that it isn't just that he doesn't shoot, it's that he plain isn't good in general in the halfcourt. He's a subpar finisher when driving to the basket, and doesn't shoot. He's amazing in the fast-break where his speed and size take over, but in the halfcourt he lacks touch and isn't quite agile or creative enough to be a high-level half-court player on offense, to this point.

I do agree with you that the Blazers should be adding to a CJ/Simmons swap, and I'm fine with doing so. Primarily due to fit/roster balance. However, Ben Simmons has no metrics showing him as this wildly impactful player, and if you assume no progression going forward from him (I do), then he's firmly in the CJ range when it comes to impact on the court.

However, much like CJ in Portland, Simmons in Philadelphia is just a terrible fit roster balance wise. It just doesn't work.

[Wizenheimer]

I agree with Simmons being good... but there's some misinformation in here. Simmons sucks at guarding the 5, and isn't a good rim protector or interior help defender. He's a premiere perimeter defender though. People really don't actually understand who Simmons is on defense. He's not Draymond. He's really really good, but he doesn't provide the level of versatility defensively that Draymond did at his peak and if you're expecting that, you're going to be wildly disappointed. Simply put, Simmons is a really good defender, but not a defensive anchor.

I also think your PPP measurements are missing the mark here. Ben Simmons efficiency is in part due to his limited FGAs. He quite simply at his current skillset doesn't have the capability to scale that efficiency up.

I would argue that it's more likely that CJ will stay in that 58% TS range going forward than regress to his career norms. The same range that Simmons resides in due to his subpar finishing ability on drives (52.4%). CJs increase in efficiency was pretty much entirely sustainable and a direct result of increasing the volume his of 3pa.

Another thing that people don't understand about Simmons is that it isn't just that he doesn't shoot, it's that he plain isn't good in general in the halfcourt. He's a subpar finisher when driving to the basket, and doesn't shoot. He's amazing in the fast-break where his speed and size take over, but in the halfcourt he lacks touch and isn't quite agile or creative enough to be a high-level half-court player on offense, to this point.

I do agree with you that the Blazers should be adding to a CJ/Simmons swap, and I'm fine with doing so. Primarily due to fit/roster balance. However, Ben Simmons has no metrics showing him as this wildly impactful player, and if you assume no progression going forward from him (I do), then he's firmly in the CJ range when it comes to impact on the court.

However, much like CJ in Portland, Simmons in Philadelphia is just a terrible fit roster balance wise. It just doesn't work.

I'm not going to agree with your evaluation of Simmons' defense, but that's a debate without a lot of foundation. Overall, I think Simmons is better than RoCo as a defender, but more importantly, the two of them, with Nurkic and Nance would really upgrade the level of Portland's defense

as far as points/shot and scoring efficiency, CJ has hit the .580 mark once in his career....5 years ago. The only reason last year's mark was as high as it was is because he missed 1/3 of the season. His TS% in the last 35 games of the year was actually a little worse than his norms. And in 6 playoff games, his TS% was under 52%. Expecting him to maintain a clip of around 58% when he hasn't done it for 5 seasons seems unrealistic.

meanwhile, Simmons has topped the 58% mark in TS for 3 straight seasons. It's true he doesn't chuck up as many shots as CJ but the Blazers should not be trading for Simmons to make him a league leader in FGA's. He should be getting about 12-14 shots a game, at most. I'd also think the PnR with Dame & Simmons could be deadly

as for FG% on "drives", that's lacking a lot of context. What is the definition and what is the league average? How many drives of his result in FT's or assists?

I do know that for his career, Simmons has shot 71.6% on FGA at the rim (0-3') and 41.1% on FGA from 3'-10'. For comparison, Nurkic has shot 60% at the rim and 39% in the 3-10' zone. Kanter has shot 66% at the rim and 43% in the 3'10' zone. In other words, Simmons is more efficient in the paint than either Nurkic or Kanter so I'm not buying he's average on drives