The 1979 Phoenix Suns (#30) @ The 1970 New York Knicks (#3)
Overall:
Record: ‘70 Knicks, 60 wins (9th) > '79 Suns, 50 wins (27th)
RSRS: ‘70 Knicks, +8.42 (4th) > ‘79 Suns, +3.55 (24th)
PSRS: '70 Knicks, +7.76 (12th) > ‘79 Suns, +5.72 (19th)
When the '79 Suns have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '79 Suns' offense vs '70 Knicks' defense:
Regular Season: +1.9 Offensive Rating (17th) vs -6.6 Defensive Rating (1st): -4.7 expected
Playoffs: -1.1 Offensive Rating (34th) vs -6.5 Defensive Rating (6th): -7.6 expected
Lineup:
PG: Don Buse, 11.2% SS on -1.1% rTS, 7.2 / 2.4 / 4.0 / 1.9: -0.1 playoff OBPM
SG: Paul Westphal, 29.4% SS on +5.0% rTS, 22.1 / 1.8 / 6.0 / 1.6: +3.3 playoff OBPM
SF: Walter Davis, 29.4% SS on +7.6% rTS, 21.8 / 4.3 / 4.0 / 2.0: +5.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Truck Robinson, 23.8% SS on +0.9% rTS, 14.7 / 8.0 / 1.4 / 1.1: -1.6 playoff OBPM
C: Alvan Adams, 23.6% SS on +4.0% rTS, 16.4 / 8.5 / 4.3 / 2.0: +1.6 playoff OBPM
6th: Gar Heard, 15.8% SS on -5.1% rTS, 5.8 / 5.2 / 0.9 / 1.6: -1.6 playoff OBPM
When the '70 Knicks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '70 Knicks' offense vs '79 Suns' defense:
Regular Season: +1.3 Offensive Rating (24th) vs -1.4 Defensive Rating (30th): -0.1 expected
Playoffs: -1.1 Offensive Rating (35th) vs -6.1 Defensive Rating (7th): -7.2 expected
Lineup:
PG: Walt Frazier, 20.0% SS on +6.4% rTS, 18.3 / 5.2 / 7.2
SG: Dick Barnett, 18.6% SS on +0.5% rTS, 13.0 / 2.4 / 3.1
SF: Bill Bradley, 20.2% SS on -1.3% rTS, 12.7 / 3.1 / 3.5
PF: Dave DeBusschere, 19.8% SS on -2.9% rTS, 12.8 / 8.7 / 2.2
C: Willis Reed, 22.4% SS on +4.1% rTS, 19.0 / 12.2 / 1.7
Thoughts:
-Injuries: Alvan Adams will be missing Game 4 for the Suns.
-If you want an offense led by high-volume stars look no further than the ‘79 Suns. They were awful on the glass (for this tournament) and turned the ball over a lot but they shot really, really well. Two players taking 29+% of their team’s shots and shooting at +5.0% rTS or better? Those are numbers that sound like they came out of the modern Heliocentric era, not the late 70s. But Paul Westphal was a beast for a few years, and Walter Davis was one of the best volume scorers of his era (on a per minute basis, he usually only played about 30 a night). But Westphal struggled in the playoffs, posting league average numbers against the Blazers and shooting poorly on high volume against the Sonics (going up against prime DJ in the playoffs was no joke. The Suns’ offense was basically dependent on Westphal and Davis to carry it. Westphal showed in the playoffs that he could be slowed . . . and the ‘70 Knicks had one of the best defenses in this tournament. Top to bottom the Knicks were tight defensively in both the regular season and playoffs. Even if they couldn’t stop the opposition’s best scorer (as Kareem did just fine against them) they shut down everyone else by so much that it didn’t matter. They didn’t win by shutting down what you did best, they won by taking your weaker scorers and making them pure garbage. Which isn’t ideal, as the Suns have their share of weaker scorers. I don’t have much against the Suns’ offense, but the ‘70 Knicks have one of the best defenses *ever*. It’s hard to feel confident about that.
- The ‘70 Knicks offense was exactly what you’d guess. 20% ShotShare across the board, great efficiency from Frazier, very good efficiency from Reed and league average or worse from everyone else. The ‘70 Knicks, for all of their virtues as a team, weren’t a particularly strong offense. They had their share of good scorers, but on the whole it wasn’t a strength. They *shot* very well but it was primarily with jump shots; their FT/FGA was actually one of the lowest in the league. The good news is that, generally, their offense (and Frazier especially) was pretty resilient in the playoffs.
But that’s not actually what happened in 1970.
Frazier’s TS% dropped 4.4%, Reed’s by 4.5%, DeBusschere’s by 3.2% and Bradley’s by another 3.2%. This was a playoffs where, for whatever reason, they really struggled to get things going. And you could argue that they faced the Bullets, Bucks and Lakers so these shooting woes can be explained . . . but that doesn’t really hold water. The Bullets would *become* a great defense but they weren’t really yet (-2.1 defensive rating), the Bucks were a monstrous defense in 1971, but in ‘70 they were only decent (-0.9) . . . the Lakers are the exception, as they were a -1.6 defense but without Wilt for 85% of their games. But either way, it wasn’t such a slate of defenses as we might have guessed. The Knicks simply weren’t that good offensively in the playoffs. But then, they didn’t need to be. The ‘70 Knicks won the title with their defense.
- I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns defense can stifle the Knicks’ offense in light of how the playoffs went (and the Suns did indeed play strong defense in the playoffs). The question is whether or not they can do it enough to compete with how much the ‘70 Knicks’ defense are going to shut down the Suns. I have my doubts.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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