MIAMI HEAT Offseason Thread 2021 Vol.5 - What Time Is It?

[rate_]

Would Strus be a better fit for the starting lineup than Duncan Robinson? He can shoot, got a wiggle game, and won't get pushed around as much as he looks to have a strong base and appears more stout than DBo and Herro. DBo is moreso a specialist and Herro is too frail.

[AirP.]

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[Kobewade11]

Would Strus be a better fit for the starting lineup than Duncan Robinson? He can shoot, got a wiggle game, and won't get pushed around as much as he looks to have a strong base and appears more stout than DBo and Herro. DBo is moreso a specialist and Herro is too frail.

All of this is moot. There’s 90 million reasons why Duncan will remain the starter.

[Heat_team02]

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[BenoUdrihFTL]

Would Strus be a better fit for the starting lineup than Duncan Robinson? He can shoot, got a wiggle game, and won't get pushed around as much as he looks to have a strong base and appears more stout than DBo and Herro. DBo is moreso a specialist and Herro is too frail.

3P% on tight (2-4 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 21% on 1.1 attempts
-Duncan 38% on 3.2 attempts

3P% on open (4-6 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 37% on 1.9 attempts
-Duncan 41% on 3.4 attempts

78% of Duncan's 3PA came vs these coverages, so it's fair to assume that whoever is in Duncan's role is gonna have to be able to hit 3s vs this kind of defense because Miami doesn't have the greatest floor spacing due to Yimmy and Bam's inability/unwillingness to consistently shoot from outside. Strus' 37% on open looks isn't too bad but the 21% vs tight defense just won't cut it, whereas Duncan's 38% vs tight defense is absolutely elite. For perspective; Steph Curry hit 37% on 3.6 attempts vs tight, 2021 3P% leader Joe Harris hit 33% on 1.5 attempts vs tight (75% of his 3PA came on open and wide open looks, the benefit as a shooter of playing with 3 of the most talented scorers in NBA history)

[Heat_team02]

Lakers / Nunn off to a slow start on NBA TV vs the Nets.

[AirP.]

Would Strus be a better fit for the starting lineup than Duncan Robinson? He can shoot, got a wiggle game, and won't get pushed around as much as he looks to have a strong base and appears more stout than DBo and Herro. DBo is moreso a specialist and Herro is too frail.

3P% on tight (2-4 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 21% on 1.1 attempts
-Duncan 38% on 3.2 attempts

3P% on open (4-6 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 37% on 1.9 attempts
-Duncan 41% on 3.4 attempts

78% of Duncan's 3PA came vs these coverages, so it's fair to assume that whoever is in Duncan's role is gonna have to be able to hit 3s vs this kind of defense because Miami doesn't have the greatest floor spacing due to Yimmy and Bam's inability/unwillingness to consistently shoot from outside. Strus' 37% on open looks isn't too bad but the 21% vs tight defense just won't cut it, whereas Duncan's 38% vs tight defense is absolutely elite. For perspective; Steph Curry hit 37% on 3.6 attempts vs tight, 2021 3P% leader Joe Harris hit 33% on 1.5 attempts vs tight (75% of his 3PA came on open and wide open looks, the benefit as a shooter of playing with 3 of the most talented scorers in NBA history)

Although the same distance, maybe not the same shot, for instance, Duncan got a lot of DHOs where Bam screened for him but the defender was still within 4 feet of him but couldn't effect the shot. I'm not sure Strus ever got a DHO ran for him so his shots were mostly just catch and shoot. Same distance for a defender but a little bit different situations for the shot, Robinson got some of those close defender shots off without issue because of a teammate's(Bam) screen while most of Strus' didn't have a teammate screening for him, most if not all his shots were just get it and shoot it.

Also, Duncan got regular minutes and was able to get into the groove of the game, Strus mostly didn't know when he'd get on the court or how long he'd be there. It'll be interesting to see how Strus works when he's out there with most of the starters with him.

[twix2500]

I expect to see the reserves tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if the 30 and older vets sit out

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[eddieheatfan]

I expect to see the reserves tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if the 30 and older vets sit out

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

same here

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Spoiler:

Would Strus be a better fit for the starting lineup than Duncan Robinson? He can shoot, got a wiggle game, and won't get pushed around as much as he looks to have a strong base and appears more stout than DBo and Herro. DBo is moreso a specialist and Herro is too frail.

3P% on tight (2-4 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 21% on 1.1 attempts
-Duncan 38% on 3.2 attempts

3P% on open (4-6 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 37% on 1.9 attempts
-Duncan 41% on 3.4 attempts

78% of Duncan's 3PA came vs these coverages, so it's fair to assume that whoever is in Duncan's role is gonna have to be able to hit 3s vs this kind of defense because Miami doesn't have the greatest floor spacing due to Yimmy and Bam's inability/unwillingness to consistently shoot from outside. Strus' 37% on open looks isn't too bad but the 21% vs tight defense just won't cut it, whereas Duncan's 38% vs tight defense is absolutely elite. For perspective; Steph Curry hit 37% on 3.6 attempts vs tight, 2021 3P% leader Joe Harris hit 33% on 1.5 attempts vs tight (75% of his 3PA came on open and wide open looks, the benefit as a shooter of playing with 3 of the most talented scorers in NBA history)

Although the same distance, maybe not the same shot, for instance, Duncan got a lot of DHOs where Bam screened for him but the defender was still within 4 feet of him but couldn't effect the shot. I'm not sure Strus ever got a DHO ran for him so his shots were mostly just catch and shoot. Same distance for a defender but a little bit different situations for the shot, Robinson got some of those close defender shots off without issue because of a teammate's(Bam) screen while most of Strus' didn't have a teammate screening for him, most if not all his shots were just get it and shoot it.

Also, Duncan got regular minutes and was able to get into the groove of the game, Strus mostly didn't know when he'd get on the court or how long he'd be there. It'll be interesting to see how Strus works when he's out there with most of the starters with him.

It's still a very difficult shot, whether it comes from DHOs or not. Part of what makes Duncan so prolific off DHOs is his ability to move without the ball and then take a dribble or two if needed before pulling up. Not to mention the body control required to be running from a defender one moment before quickly composing yourself enough to get into shooting motion, then having the automatic quick release to get the shot off. If it were easy to just spam DHOs and convert 3s at the rate Duncan does, then everyone would be doing it because it's a high-value shot by the numbers. Say all of Duncan's tight 3s come from DHOs; that 38% conversion rate per 100 possessions equates to a 114 ORTG in a season where the league average ORTG was 112.3, when only 9 teams had an ORTG over 114

So it was such a featured part of Miami's offense because it was one of our most productive plays. Replace Duncan with a shooter who isn't league elite on tight 3s and Miami's 111.2 ORTG gets even worse. Sure, I'd expect Strus' % to improve with getting more reps within the system, but that 21% is such a low starting point that reasonable improvement still doesn't elevate him to Duncan's level. Again, Joe Harris led the NBA shooting 48% overall on 3s last season and even he wasn't on Duncan's level when it comes to tight coverage

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

3P% on tight (2-4 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 21% on 1.1 attempts
-Duncan 38% on 3.2 attempts

3P% on open (4-6 feet) coverage 3PA:
-Strus 37% on 1.9 attempts
-Duncan 41% on 3.4 attempts

78% of Duncan's 3PA came vs these coverages, so it's fair to assume that whoever is in Duncan's role is gonna have to be able to hit 3s vs this kind of defense because Miami doesn't have the greatest floor spacing due to Yimmy and Bam's inability/unwillingness to consistently shoot from outside. Strus' 37% on open looks isn't too bad but the 21% vs tight defense just won't cut it, whereas Duncan's 38% vs tight defense is absolutely elite. For perspective; Steph Curry hit 37% on 3.6 attempts vs tight, 2021 3P% leader Joe Harris hit 33% on 1.5 attempts vs tight (75% of his 3PA came on open and wide open looks, the benefit as a shooter of playing with 3 of the most talented scorers in NBA history)

Although the same distance, maybe not the same shot, for instance, Duncan got a lot of DHOs where Bam screened for him but the defender was still within 4 feet of him but couldn't effect the shot. I'm not sure Strus ever got a DHO ran for him so his shots were mostly just catch and shoot. Same distance for a defender but a little bit different situations for the shot, Robinson got some of those close defender shots off without issue because of a teammate's(Bam) screen while most of Strus' didn't have a teammate screening for him, most if not all his shots were just get it and shoot it.

Also, Duncan got regular minutes and was able to get into the groove of the game, Strus mostly didn't know when he'd get on the court or how long he'd be there. It'll be interesting to see how Strus works when he's out there with most of the starters with him.

It's still a very difficult shot, whether it comes from DHOs or not. Part of what makes Duncan so prolific off DHOs is his ability to move without the ball and then take a dribble or two if needed before pulling up. Not to mention the body control required to be running from a defender one moment before quickly composing yourself enough to get into shooting motion, then having the automatic quick release to get the shot off. If it were easy to just spam DHOs and convert 3s at the rate Duncan does, then everyone would be doing it because it's a high-value shot by the numbers. Say all of Duncan's tight 3s come from DHOs; that 38% conversion rate per 100 possessions equates to a 114 ORTG in a season where the league average ORTG was 112.3, when only 9 teams had an ORTG over 114

So it was such a featured part of Miami's offense because it was one of our most productive plays. Replace Duncan with a shooter who isn't league elite on tight 3s and Miami's 111.2 ORTG gets even worse. Sure, I'd expect Strus' % to improve with getting more reps within the system, but that 21% is such a low starting point that reasonable improvement still doesn't elevate him to Duncan's level. Again, Joe Harris led the NBA shooting 48% overall on 3s last season and even he wasn't on Duncan's level when it comes to tight coverage

Sure it's a difficult shot but it's not as difficult as a shot with no teammate screening them and the defender is actually getting their hands in the shooter's airspace, that's all I was saying, although the data meets that criteria it doesn't mean the data is the same but then again, it's all we have.

Is it an above average shot for the NBA, sure but we don't have the data of how many times the DHO was ran where Robinson didn't get off a shot and had to pass it possibly causing a much more difficult shot since the play was blown up and there were less time on the clock.

My question would be, if Strus got the same ratio of DHOs with Bam like Robinson does, would that raise his 3pt%? I'd think it would but of course at this point we don't have that data.

What's crazy to me is that out of the 108.1 ppg that Miami scored, Robinson(a 1 way player) contributed only 13.1 of those points leaving the rest of the team to score the other 95 points, it would be one thing if he was a solid defender also, but he's not.

[al bondiga]

The star and the three-point threat to all teams is Duncan not struss, when and only when struss becomes a known threat then he will start

[harlem_ball]

Based on what, exactly? Sauces?

Based on him running with Lowry, Duncan, Butler and Adebayo. Also based on Spo’s history since Battier of basically running a small ball 4, for better or worse. Last season, that was definitely for worse.

Every year it’s for the worse. It’s effective in the playoffs, but wears players out if done for an entire season. Not sure what it’s going to take for Spo to realize.

It depends on your personnel and how they handle that grind. Jae Crowder seemed ideal but you are right and Crowder was a midseason addition that didn't have to grind the full season. That said, he did well in the same role for the Suns.

[harlem_ball]

The star and the three-point threat to all teams is Duncan not struss, when and only when struss becomes a known threat then he will start

Exactly. Strus has proven nothing. He's an inexperienced Joe Harris-type at this point, potentially. Harris was trash in the playoffs, btw.

[insfo]

No ATL game thread yet? Are we waiting for Iggie to start one and "kick off" our season?

[AirP.]

The star and the three-point threat to all teams is Duncan not struss, when and only when struss becomes a known threat then he will start

Exactly. Strus has proven nothing. He's an inexperienced Joe Harris-type at this point, potentially. Harris was trash in the playoffs, btw.

You think Robinson hasn't been trash in the playoffs?

Sure, Joe Harris was trash in the playoffs.
11.2 pts, 40% 3pt%, 3.6 reb, 1.6 ast

Compared to Robinson in last year's playoffs.
10.3 pts, 37% 3pt%, 2.8 reb, .8 ast
Best year...
11.7 pts, 40% 3pt% 2.8 reb, 1.8 ast <= Robinson's best playoffs is comparable to what you said was trash from J.Harris.

Honestly, a guy who's only positive attribute is shooting 3s is a role player and mostly will only get to use his only strong attribute because mostly his teammates get him open for his career high 13.1 ppg.

I'm not saying I don't like Robinson, he seems to be a worker, but when you look at the player, he's very limited and hurts the team on the defensive end and I don't like teams putting so much of their cap towards a player like that.

Hopefully with Lowry Robinson will get more open looks but I'm going to be highly interested in seeing what Strus can do when he's getting steady playing time and when replacing Robinson with the 4 other starters on the court.

[AirP.]

Weird that this was just 1 year ago.

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[MiamiSun]

This is the wrong way of looking at it. We have talked about this over and over. Duncan unlocks all the other players. His shooting is such a focus for the opposing defenses that he could go 0-10 in a game but the offense flows because of the attention he commands.

I also think we shouldn't look at last years playoffs and make too much of it. The team was tired and spent. All 4 final 4 teams from the bubble where spent.

At some point Duncan will sit out a game or two and you will see the difference.

The star and the three-point threat to all teams is Duncan not struss, when and only when struss becomes a known threat then he will start

Exactly. Strus has proven nothing. He's an inexperienced Joe Harris-type at this point, potentially. Harris was trash in the playoffs, btw.

You think Robinson hasn't been trash in the playoffs?

Sure, Joe Harris was trash in the playoffs.
11.2 pts, 40% 3pt%, 3.6 reb, 1.6 ast

Compared to Robinson in last year's playoffs.
10.3 pts, 37% 3pt%, 2.8 reb, .8 ast
Best year...
11.7 pts, 40% 3pt% 2.8 reb, 1.8 ast <= Robinson's best playoffs is comparable to what you said was trash from J.Harris.

Honestly, a guy who's only positive attribute is shooting 3s is a role player and mostly will only get to use his only strong attribute because mostly his teammates get him open for his career high 13.1 ppg.

I'm not saying I don't like Robinson, he seems to be a worker, but when you look at the player, he's very limited and hurts the team on the defensive end and I don't like teams putting so much of their cap towards a player like that.

Hopefully with Lowry Robinson will get more open looks but I'm going to be highly interested in seeing what Strus can do when he's getting steady playing time and when replacing Robinson with the 4 other starters on the court.

[Hallstar]

This is the wrong way of looking at it. We have talked about this over and over. Duncan unlocks all the other players. His shooting is such a focus for the opposing defenses that he could go 0-10 in a game but the offense flows because of the attention he commands.

I also think we shouldn't look at last years playoffs and make too much of it. The team was tired and spent. All 4 final 4 teams from the bubble where spent.

At some point Duncan will sit out a game or two and you will see the difference.

Exactly. Strus has proven nothing. He's an inexperienced Joe Harris-type at this point, potentially. Harris was trash in the playoffs, btw.

You think Robinson hasn't been trash in the playoffs?

Sure, Joe Harris was trash in the playoffs.
11.2 pts, 40% 3pt%, 3.6 reb, 1.6 ast

Compared to Robinson in last year's playoffs.
10.3 pts, 37% 3pt%, 2.8 reb, .8 ast
Best year...
11.7 pts, 40% 3pt% 2.8 reb, 1.8 ast <= Robinson's best playoffs is comparable to what you said was trash from J.Harris.

Honestly, a guy who's only positive attribute is shooting 3s is a role player and mostly will only get to use his only strong attribute because mostly his teammates get him open for his career high 13.1 ppg.

I'm not saying I don't like Robinson, he seems to be a worker, but when you look at the player, he's very limited and hurts the team on the defensive end and I don't like teams putting so much of their cap towards a player like that.

Hopefully with Lowry Robinson will get more open looks but I'm going to be highly interested in seeing what Strus can do when he's getting steady playing time and when replacing Robinson with the 4 other starters on the court.

Flow is not a word associated with our offense, so I'm up for changing whatever it is we're trying.

[harlem_ball]

The star and the three-point threat to all teams is Duncan not struss, when and only when struss becomes a known threat then he will start

Exactly. Strus has proven nothing. He's an inexperienced Joe Harris-type at this point, potentially. Harris was trash in the playoffs, btw.

You think Robinson hasn't been trash in the playoffs?

Sure, Joe Harris was trash in the playoffs.
11.2 pts, 40% 3pt%, 3.6 reb, 1.6 ast

Compared to Robinson in last year's playoffs.
10.3 pts, 37% 3pt%, 2.8 reb, .8 ast
Best year...
11.7 pts, 40% 3pt% 2.8 reb, 1.8 ast <= Robinson's best playoffs is comparable to what you said was trash from J.Harris.

Honestly, a guy who's only positive attribute is shooting 3s is a role player and mostly will only get to use his only strong attribute because mostly his teammates get him open for his career high 13.1 ppg.

I'm not saying I don't like Robinson, he seems to be a worker, but when you look at the player, he's very limited and hurts the team on the defensive end and I don't like teams putting so much of their cap towards a player like that.

Hopefully with Lowry Robinson will get more open looks but I'm going to be highly interested in seeing what Strus can do when he's getting steady playing time and when replacing Robinson with the 4 other starters on the court.

Can't disagree with this. Heat did Robinson a solid and may have negotiated against itself, I don't know for sure. But it's done and Robinson is set to have a long career in Miami and break a ton of records along the way.