[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Bill Russell

[Colbinii]

1. LeBron 2017
2. LeBron 2016
3. LeBron 2012
4. LeBron 2013
5. Russell 1965
6. Russell 1962
7. Russell 1964
8. LeBron 2009
9. Russell 1963
10. LeBron 2020
11. LeBron 2018
12. LeBron 2014

To summarize, at the top I have what I consider to be the clear-cut 4 best seasons LeBron has had in terms of producing "Title winning odds". His game had few weaknesses, he was healthy physically and mentally [Hello 2011] and these seasons are, as a whole, a hair better than Russell's best. Russell claims the next 3 seasons, in part because it is difficult for me to distinguish between the next 3 years for him but I also view these years as him being at his best on both ends of the court.

I also have 1963 a notch below 62/64/65 and after reading Odinn's post that could change in the future but for now this is what I have [and being honest the gap isn't large]. 2009 LeBron is a difficult season to peg--some have it as LeBron's peak but I just can't see that given how much better he has been in his Miami/2nd stint CLE years as a complete and polished basketball player [The GOAT in my opinion].

The last 3 years are captured with solely LeBron seasons where he turned it up in the post-season to an unfathomable level and closely followed by 1966 and 1960 Russell.

[Odinn21]

Top 7 seasons for LeBron James;
2012
2013
2009
2016
2014
2010
2017/2011/2020

Top 7 seasons for Bill Russell;
1962
1965
1963
1964
1961
1960
1966

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 2012 LeBron James
2. 2013 LeBron James
3. 2009 LeBron James
4. 1962 Bill Russell
5. 1965 Bill Russell
6. 1963 Bill Russell
7. 2016 LeBron James
8. 2014 LeBron James
9. 1964 Bill Russell
10. 1961 Bill Russell
11. 1960 Bill Russell
12. 2010 LeBron James

Well;
- 2009 James vs. 1962 Russell was the comparison for me in the top half of the 12. I was very close to putting 1962 over 2009 but decided not to because it felt a bit too reactionary, so I didn't.
- James' lower motor regular season performances are the reason why his 2014/2016/2017 seasons aren't closer to the top and sandwiched between 1960-65 Russell seasons. Prime Russell was too good to have a chance like that.
- Without the efficiency problem he had in the playoffs, I'd probably have 1964 Russell over 2014/2016 but that's just too glaring.
- In 1960, Russell had prettier scoring numbers, especially efficiency wise. But 1961 is the season Russell started to perform like the goat defensive player we highly regard. 1960 was quite close but still not the same. I think I was pretty luck to see all the ps games Russell played and there was a rather significant gap. In 1960, if he was playing D on the same level as his 1961 self, it wouldn't take a full 7 game series to defeat the Hawks for instance.
- Other than NBA Finals series in 2011, I have 2010 as the high variance season of James' rs peak from 2009 to 2014.

- I was expecting something like 55:45 in favour of James, and this turned out to be 58:42. Not far off.

[Odinn21]

LeBron James vs. Bill Russell results;

Code: Select all

1.   65 points / 0.903 share / '12 LeBron James
2.   62 points / 0.861 share / '09 LeBron James
3.   52 points / 0.722 share / '13 LeBron James
4.   50 points / 0.694 share / '16 LeBron James
5.   48 points / 0.667 share / '65 Bill Russell
6.   47 points / 0.653 share / '62 Bill Russell
7.   33 points / 0.458 share / '64 Bill Russell
8.   30 points / 0.417 share / '17 LeBron James
9.   29 points / 0.403 share / '63 Bill Russell
10.  12 points / 0.167 share / '14 LeBron James
11.  11 points / 0.153 share / '60 Bill Russell
12.  10 points / 0.139 share / '10 LeBron James
                               
13.   7 points / 0.097 share / '66 Bill Russell
14.   6 points / 0.083 share / '20 LeBron James
15.   3 points / 0.042 share / '61 Bill Russell
16.   3 points / 0.042 share / '18 LeBron James

Points within top 12 seasons voted;
LeBron James 51 - 27 Bill Russell

Points totals in top 12 seasons voted;
LeBron James 281 - 168 Bill Russell

Winner: LeBron James

Results on Google Sheets

[His Dudeness]

1. 2011-12 LeBron James
2. 1961-62 Bill Russell
3. 2012-13 LeBron James
4. 2008-09 LeBron James
5. 1964-65 Bill Russell
6. 1963-64 Bill Russell
7. 1962-63 Bill Russell
8. 2015-16 LeBron James
9. 1960-61 Bill Russell
10. 1959-60 Bill Russell
11.2009-10 LeBron James
12. 2013-14 LeBron James

LeBron’s 2011-12 season locks down the top spot, but I can see arguments for his ‘13 or ‘09 campaigns to be in that spot, and also cover the entire top three. Russell’s string of dominance in the first half of the sixties, though, is just so consistently great. One thing that impresses me about Russell is that even when his role began to change on offense and he became even more of a passing hub, his defensive impact never faltered. LeBron does take this matchup due to peak and length of sustained greatness, in my opinion, but Russell’s dominance (even with 11 titles) still feels understated and places his prime in contention for greatest in basketball.

[LA Bird]

Even the unweighted and old EFF is more predictive than WS/48 for the times before tov tracking.

Source for this and where I can find EFF numbers for all player seasons? I had considered it the same type of outdated stat as GmSc which I never used before for season comparisons.

Was Paul Pierce less of a player in 2002/2003/2006 than 2008 due to WS/48 saying so?

No, because his role was different with the addition of Garnett and Allen and we have a lot more video and stats available to judge Pierce's seasons. None of this applies for Russell. And WS/48 is not the only reason why I am low on 63 Russell if you re-read my post about how the Celtics did in the playoffs.

Or did Oscar Robertson peak like 2003 Tracy McGrady in 1964?

No, because the main improvement with the 64 Royals was on defense and Oscar was not the team anchor on that end of the floor. It's not similar to TMac's outlier 03 peak where his individual offensive numbers exploded.

And you have the only season Russell failed to improve in volume and efficiency from rs to ps as his #1 season, if there's an inconsistent season among them, it's that one.
But 1963 gets short end of the stick because WS/48 couldn't handle Russell's efficiency drop and Havlicek's arrival?..

Not sure why you are picking on my choice of 64 as Russell's peak when I had already said before it's based on defense not offense. The 64 Celtics had a -10.8 rDRtg in the regular season which improved to -14.1 in the playoffs (both clear GOAT marks) and it's the only season in Russell's career where the Celtics were completely dominant from start to finish and didn't get pushed to a G7 against some average 2 SRS team. Russell is ranked highly first and foremost because of his defense and team success and 64 was his best year in both. You can complain about his postseason TS% that year but it would be like complaining about Mutombo's TS% in his series against the 94 Sonics.

I only have 2 LeBron seasons between 63 vs 65/62 Russell anyway so I don't know why this is a such a big deal. It's not like either 2014 or 2020 LeBron are weak sauce seasons.

[Odinn21]

Even the unweighted and old EFF is more predictive than WS/48 for the times before tov tracking.

Source for this and where I can find EFF numbers for all player seasons? I had considered it the same type of outdated stat as GmSc which I never used before for season comparisons.

There's no source for that. But it's incredibly easy to calculate.
It's just ( pts + reb + ast + stl + blk ) - ( missed fga + missed fta + tov ).
One of the good things about this basic unweighted metric, it can be calculated for teams and there's a use in comparing an individual output to team output, making a rate.

About WS/48

A very good chunk of your post was about the metric, I don't think I was too aggressive about it though.

Not sure why you are picking on my choice of 64 as Russell's peak when I had already said before it's based on defense not offense. The 64 Celtics had a -10.8 rDRtg in the regular season which improved to -14.1 in the playoffs (both clear GOAT marks) and it's the only season in Russell's career where the Celtics were completely dominant from start to finish and didn't get pushed to a G7 against some average 2 SRS team. Russell is ranked highly first and foremost because of his defense and team success and 64 was his best year in both. You can complain about his postseason TS% that year but it would be like complaining about Mutombo's TS% in his series against the 94 Sonics.

Pace adjustments without offensive/defensive rebounds and turnovers look extremely wonky.
Not only that, we don't even have "opponent numbers" for any season before 1971.

Though you're talking about the trend of Russell led defenses in regular season. So, of course it's the same for all of his seasons.
Let's take a look at rDRtg trend;

(first BBRef numbers / second Backpicks numbers)
-6.2 / -3.7 in 1960
-7.6 / -5.5 in 1961
-8.5 / -6.1 in 1962
-8.5 / -6.3 in 1963
-10.8 / -8.7 in 1964
-9.4 / -7.2 in 1965
-6.6 / -4.5 in 1966

Now, it's clear that 1964 is a clear outlier in a positive way. But you're talking as if Russell was free of offensive duties and loads. That's why it's very hard to agree with Deke comparison.

NRtg numbers;
+6.1 / +6.2 in 1960
+4.2 / +4.1 in 1961
+7.0 / +7.0 in 1962
+5.6 / +5.7 in 1963
+6.3 / +6.3 in 1964
+6.7 / +6.8 in 1965
+4.0 / +4.0 in 1966

And that clear outlier in 1964 rDRtg isn't there. Basketball isn't one-way play, is it? And there's only so much impact a player can have. This is not like comparing Franz Beckenbauer to Johan Cryuff.

It's obvious that Bill Russell is the defensive goat. But it's not solely his defense made him top 10 ever level great. Even all of the other defensive monsters like Duncan, Olajuwon, Garnett, Robinson; they are that highly regarded with involvement of their offense. Russell is still an outlier, but not by the extent you're making out to be. Comparing Russell's rTS% situation to Mutombo doesn't look accurate. Because Russell's offensive role, load and impact were always important part of his game. Unlike Mutombo.
Russell's ppg rank within the team in the playoffs from 1960 to 1966;
2nd in 1960, scored 16.4% of team's total points
2nd in 1961, scored 15.8% of team's total points
1st in 1962, scored 19.5% of team's total points
3rd in 1963, scored 17.2% of team's total points
4th in 1964, scored 12.7% of team's total points
3rd in 1965, scored 14.1% of team's total points
3rd in 1966, scored 16.5% of team's total points

Mutombo went hot in 1994 and 1997, had similar rates to what was low end of expectations and standards for Russell.

Fwiw, postseason pace adjustments for the seasons before 1974 look just useless to me. I mean it's somewhat acceptable to a degree for regular seasons with the play time being a constant for teams and the sample size being not small. But postseason pace adjustments with sample size being extremely small and changing for each team is very hard to overlook.
Also ps relative Rtg numbers have a pretty big variance window. Two quick examples about this;
- In 2003 first round, the Magic went hot from the distance and Ben Wallace led defense was sitting at a mere -1.0 rDRtg against them in the first 4 games. I used to blame Wallace for that series but it's just simple fact that a perimeter unit going hot.
That series against the Royals in 1963 was like that. Oscar Robertson himself was hitting long range shots, also made Bockhorn work from distance. And there you have it. I think I've mentioned this before in RealGM PC board that Robertson's performance against the Celtics in '63 might be the best offensive performance in a series against Russell's Celtics with how he steered his offense away from Russell.
- Abdul-Jabbar led defense in 1977 was -2.1 rDRtg, Ewing led defense in 1990 playoffs was +7.4 rDRtg in Olajuwon led defense in 1995 playoffs was -1.0 rDRtg, Duncan led defense in 2006 playoffs was +2.6 rDRtg, Wallace led defense in 2006 playoffs was -2.2 rDRtg (in fact, the Pistons had identical rDRtg in the next playoffs without Wallace). There are instances of all-time level defensive players not leading to great ps rDRtg numbers in 10+ game ps runs. (With offensive load usually.)

Going back to particular comparison of 1963 and 1964;
Wish there was extensive footage to showcase my point in a visible way. 1964 was more dominant and way more convincing run by the Celtics due to Havlicek. Havlicek made a huge step-up. Surely, he wasn't an impact of +8 or greater. But not only his offensive production went up, he was far better on defense compared to 1963. His movement, crazy high motor and active hands prevented Oscar Robertson running a highly efficient offense. You can think of Havlicek's performance as unlocking things for the Celtics.
Russell wasn't significantly worse or better in any of these 2 seasons on defense.

I only have 2 LeBron seasons between 63 vs 65/62 Russell anyway so I don't know why this is a such a big deal. It's not like either 2014 or 2020 LeBron are weak sauce seasons.

I think this is the most important part of all.

8. 1965 Russell
9. 1962 Russell
10. 2014 LeBron
11. 2020 LeBron
12. 1960 Russell

This was your vote. Did you mean to put 1963 Russell at #12 and not 1960?

[LA Bird]

Even the unweighted and old EFF is more predictive than WS/48 for the times before tov tracking.

Source for this and where I can find EFF numbers for all player seasons? I had considered it the same type of outdated stat as GmSc which I never used before for season comparisons.

There's no source for that. But it's incredibly easy to calculate.
It's just ( pts + reb + ast + stl + blk ) - ( missed fga + missed fta + tov ).
One of the good things about this basic unweighted metric, it can be calculated for teams and there's a use in comparing an individual output to team output, making a rate.

I meant a source for EFF being more predictive than WS/48 for the times before tov tracking. I have seen ElGee doing similar analysis with other metrics but not EFF.

I only have 2 LeBron seasons between 63 vs 65/62 Russell anyway so I don't know why this is a such a big deal. It's not like either 2014 or 2020 LeBron are weak sauce seasons.

I think this is the most important part of all.

8. 1965 Russell
9. 1962 Russell
10. 2014 LeBron
11. 2020 LeBron
12. 1960 Russell

This was your vote. Did you mean to put 1963 Russell at #12 and not 1960?

No, but I have 63 barely behind 60 in a near tie. So the only LeBron seasons ahead would still just be 14/20.

[Odinn21]

Source for this and where I can find EFF numbers for all player seasons? I had considered it the same type of outdated stat as GmSc which I never used before for season comparisons.

There's no source for that. But it's incredibly easy to calculate.
It's just ( pts + reb + ast + stl + blk ) - ( missed fga + missed fta + tov ).
One of the good things about this basic unweighted metric, it can be calculated for teams and there's a use in comparing an individual output to team output, making a rate.

I meant a source for EFF being more predictive than WS/48 for the times before tov tracking. I have seen ElGee doing similar analysis with other metrics but not EFF.

Ah. Got it. It's my own analysis.
I'll say this, looking at EFF in some way (maybe trends over time, or numbers in a season) is always useful because it's unweighted nature helps us recognise where the weights lay in other metrics.
Surely, EFF is not useful for 2010s (I do see some use in it for the '60s definitely). There are way better metrics of course, but it still helps with addressing changes and play styles.

No, but I have 63 barely behind 60 in a near tie. So the only LeBron seasons ahead would still just be 14/20.

I still strongly disagree with many of your preferences regarding Russell; such as '64 Russell being the peak Russell or '63 being far down the list, '10 James being higher than '62/'65 Russell, '20 James being higher than '63 Russell. (Fwiw, I disagree with '14 James and '20 James being so close to each other as well. )
But I think we dragged it out a bit too long. I mean it's been 30 hours since the next thread started.