Ben Simmons trades go here (and here only): Expect warnings if not following forum rules

[babyjax13]

[Here is the aforementioned post.

As always we don't deserve you, but we are so glad to have you part of this community.

I am a blessing to mankind.

[Roy The Natural]

Ben Simmons has played four seasons in the NBA and made the all-star team in three of them. The one year he didn't he was rookie of the year.

CJ McCollum has played eight seasons in the NBA and never made an all-star team.

No matter what mental gymnastics you go through, calling both of them fringe all-stars will never be accurate.

What years would Simmons make it in the West as a guard? Who's spot is he taking?

If it's your contention that Simmons only made the all-star team for the last years because he was in the East then you should prove it. Stop making statements and then demanding others to prove you wrong.

I can't prove it definitely because you can't prove a negative.

However... 2018-19 I don't think he has any argument over Lillard, Harden, Butler, Westbrook, Curry. You could maybe argue Klay, but Klay seems to be in high regard with fans and coaches and seems to always place higher in ASG hierarchy than I think he should.

2019-20... I've got Lillard, Luka, Harden, Westbrook, CP3 over him

2020-21 I've got Lillard, Luka, Steph, Mitchell, CP3 over him. I'd also give the nod to Booker as injury replace.

I think Ben Simmons is pretty clearly fringe at best in the West. What else do you call a guy who's perennially fighting for a 6th all-star spot among the position group?

[Roy The Natural]

It's wild to me all this bias talk. I'm supposedly the bad guy here and I'm getting accused of bias no one has remotely been able to substantiate and I've gone out of my way not to accuse anyone else of any bias.

But since apparently its okay to call certain posters out for bias, but oddly enough I've yet to see one poster accuse someone else of their own fanbase of bias. Which is natural of course because we don't see our own bias as bias, just the other guys.

I wish you'd all knock that off though. We all have biases of various kinds. I freely admit I have them, though this bias against Blazer fans isn't one I am aware I have. I just have bias against inconsistent takes.

The only time I think your Bias shows up is via overvaluing Curry who has been in Dallas and been pretty solid for them a myriad of times. I don't agree that you are "biased" I just don't agree with your valuations and I think you're more often than not obtuse in defining how you come to them. That's all.

Not biased, just obtuse. Easy to say when you ignore the statistical information I provide on a topic, isn't it? I find it odd that today's accuser finds that I apparently dislike you and that leads me to bias, but you have now called me obtuse multiple times itt and he doesn't find your clear disdain for me to be hindering your ability to be objective.

And its funny that I supposedly overvalue Curry because I'm a homer Mavs fan I guess yet I tried for a long time to trade Curry for Richardson before it actually happened and in every single version of those deals I added value to Curry to get Richardson but IRL value was added to Richardson to get Curry.

I literally undervalued him. And he just had a really good follow up season in Philly so yeah I don't think his value has gone down. Crazy homer takes by me I guess.....

Is obtuse an insult? I didn't think it was.

[Roy The Natural]

Let me reiterate I am not saying these numbers should be used as gospel for the difference in impact. But just sharing them with Roy out of a spirit of goodwill. They do not represent my personal views in any way. It's simply data for people to do with as they wish. I do not believe trade value can be assigned by plugging numbers into a formula and waiting for it to spit out the correct answer.

And for what its worth, Raptor says something different than what he had when I look:

CJ McCollum last 2 years:
6 Wins above Replacement
4.8 Wins above Replacement

Currry last 2 years

3.1 Wins above Replacement
2.5 Wins above Replacement

Not seeing where CJ has 4x the impact as was previously declared.



RPM:
CJ McCollum 8.42 wins
Seth Curry 4.71 wins

PIPM (LEBRON)
CJ 4.70 wins
Curry 2.50 wins



EPM Wins:

CJ 6.7
Curry 4.6

RAPM (3 year I believe, not wins but just value):
CJ 2.9
Curry 2.1

Here is the aforementioned post.

Hand over heart honest. Never saw this post. Or at least? Was it edited to provide the data later? I remember reading the first paragraph, but I don't remember the numbers being there?

Was there an edit to add the data back in after an initial post? Or was I just blind?

To respond to the RAPTOR x4 impact statement. RAPTOR has CJ as a +3.7 total player. He played 47 games due to a seemingly freak injury. It has Curry at a neutral +.2 total over 57 games.

I would argue that for the purposes of debate that wins added should be taken at an evenly scaled value of games as we would be assuming health per any discussion about on court impact. Unlike someone like Nurkic there isn't an overwhelming history of injuries with CJ that would lead us to presume he would miss significant time.

Maybe 4x is hyperbolic. And I don't necessarily know if we can measure player impact in a direct multiplier of difference. However, the point remains that CJ McCollum s impact was measured at a season altering level while Curry's was mostly around the margins of a couple of games. The measurements we see have CJ adding between 8-12 wins and Curry looking at 2-6 wins. With most of these suggesting about twice the amount of wins added. That's a MASSIVE Gulf in player impact.

[Napoleon7]

I agree the price is too high but 3 1stss and 3 swaps is not remotely the same as 6 1sts and we should be accurate in our presentation of the ask.

As someone who is a long time lurker and rare commenter, I find this a bit silly coming from you specifically. I may get in trouble for this, but whatever.

If it is a post that involves any of the other 29 teams in the NBA, you tend to have excellent posts and analysis.

However, your dislike for some of the Portland posters is evident and impacts your ability to always be as accurate as possible when it comes to discussing Portland.

Agreed


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[Blazer1776]

The only time I think your Bias shows up is via overvaluing Curry who has been in Dallas and been pretty solid for them a myriad of times. I don't agree that you are "biased" I just don't agree with your valuations and I think you're more often than not obtuse in defining how you come to them. That's all.

Not biased, just obtuse. Easy to say when you ignore the statistical information I provide on a topic, isn't it? I find it odd that today's accuser finds that I apparently dislike you and that leads me to bias, but you have now called me obtuse multiple times itt and he doesn't find your clear disdain for me to be hindering your ability to be objective.

And its funny that I supposedly overvalue Curry because I'm a homer Mavs fan I guess yet I tried for a long time to trade Curry for Richardson before it actually happened and in every single version of those deals I added value to Curry to get Richardson but IRL value was added to Richardson to get Curry.

I literally undervalued him. And he just had a really good follow up season in Philly so yeah I don't think his value has gone down. Crazy homer takes by me I guess.....

Is obtuse an insult? I didn't think it was.

1) I never have mentioned whom I think you dislike, other than certain Blazer posters. Funny that you bring up Roy on your own though

2) I don’t find obtuse to be an insult. Just like I don’t perceive calling someone biased as an insult.

3) I have no need to call out Roy (we actually seems to disagree on ALOT) because you always beat me to it . Not to mention, there is more responsibility in being a mod than a general poster.

4) You wanted the bias talk to stop, but you have brought it up multiple times since then. I have pmd you, letting you know that I was willing to discuss it further there (If you are truly interested as to how I arrived at my opinion). If you want to have it here, that is fine also.

5) Curry > Jrich

[bondom34]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

Edit to note: I have zero interest in this thread, but it's gotten kind of out of hand with many just saying there's no interest in Simmons, or that their team won't give up much, etc. In which case fine but frankly there's not a ton of need to say anything. But I'm leaving with this.

Impact metrics aren't meant to be the be all/end all. You can't just state "Player X rates Y on this, Player A rates B on this, therefore X is better than A." There's generally more to it than that (Danny Green/Covington/many others who are examples). To add, I don't trust RAPTOR at all. If you're telling me Lu Dort is worth approximately the same as SGA, along with all the other flaws we've got in it's defensive measures, I'm not buying and from reading and listening around a bit seems it's polarizing. But if (big if) we're using it.

Spoiler:

2 of these are a lot closer than the 3rd. And no, I don't trust this metric. But if we're doing that game.

[Blazer1776]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

[bondom34]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

[Roy The Natural]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

I don't know about bias... I won't pick up that mantle. But clearly the metrics we have show that Curry and CJ are in completely different tiers as far as I'm court value. That was the crux of the argument anyways. Yes Curry is positive marginal value + in terms of impact. Yes CJ probably is about $6-$8M over what would be considered a solid deal annually. However, the massive gulf in player impact isn't just..m CJ's better.... CJ is a lot better. CJ is multiple steps up the impact ladder. Residing far closer to the Ben Simmons impact range than the Seth Curry one. At least that's the perception that the impact metrics we see tend to present.

[Roy The Natural]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

Has CJ gained a bunch of value? I'm not arguing he has. I never had Simmons with extremely high value and I think his has dropped. I don't believe CJ for Simmons straight is palatable for Philly and have never suggested so. However the gulf between these 2 players isn't 6 years of draft control. It just isn't.

CJ was bad in the playoffs this year no doubt. Though he has a pretty decent history of maintaining his play in the playoffs. Ben Simmons on the other hand had the ultimate stinker against Atlanta.... And has had a myriad of other horrible stinkers. He has had some good series as well against playoff teams that wouldn't be playoff teams in the West though.

[Texas Chuck]

Still waiting for one person to explain how I dislike Blazers posters as a group and still waiting for one person to explain how that translates into bias.

And yes calling posters obtuse or biased is clearly an insult. It's certainly not a compliment. And yes I do have biases. But pretty sure this isn't one of them.

I guarantee you if I did that to one of you, these anti-Chuck posts would only grow in number.....

I still think when you demand evidence you have a responsibility to read and ideally respond to it and then to come back and assert I edited it in later baselessly is offensive as hell. But saying this will just make me the bad guy so.... And btw the way PM any trade board mod and they can let you know if that post was edited and when. And surely all of us aren't horribly biased...

I still like every Blazers poster, even if I will take issue with a specific post or posts when I find issues with them. Even if that offends other Blazers posters.

But enough about me even though my ego does enjoy it being all about me for a minute. Makes me feel like a bigger deal than I really am.

To get back on topic, I'm still waiting on hearing how swaps are the same as straight 1sts. I still think the Sixers ask is too much, but BullyKing disagrees despite us both being board mods and both being biased. I still think CJ is a better player than Curry, but that their trade value is much closer because of contracts. I still think Simmons is going to return a good package from some team.

[Celts17Pride]

When Simmons comes back to the Sixers and averages 2 shots per game and plays like an average 12th man on an NBA team it’s going to force Morey’s hand.

Can’t believe Morey is that stupid to let that happen. Simmons collects his money and Sixers can’t fine him for being bad. Why would Philly let that happen?

[Blazer1776]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

With most things I in life, rash, emotion filled decisions usually are not the best way to gauge anything.

A similar thing has been seen with Simmons asking out. There was the initial backlash, but no cooler heads are prevailing.

My point being, choosing an emotional timeframe to judge an opinion isn’t always the best.

[bondom34]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

I don't know about bias... I won't pick up that mantle. But clearly the metrics we have show that Curry and CJ are in completely different tiers as far as I'm court value. That was the crux of the argument anyways. Yes Curry is positive marginal value + in terms of impact. Yes CJ probably is about $6-$8M over what would be considered a solid deal annually. However, the massive gulf in player impact isn't just..m CJ's better.... CJ is a lot better. CJ is multiple steps up the impact ladder. Residing far closer to the Ben Simmons impact range than the Seth Curry one. At least that's the perception that the impact metrics we see tend to present.

Well....last post. But I'll default to someone who worked in a front office in analytics. Because as stated in said post, impact metrics aren't to be used like this but:

https://theathletic.com/2753332/2021/08/10/nba-player-tiers-lamelo-ball-kyle-lowry-julius-randle-check-in-at-tier-4-alongside-40-other-players/

Tier 4A:



And this is without taking salary into account. So clearly Seth Partnow is obtuse and biased.

[bondom34]

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

Has CJ gained a bunch of value? I'm not arguing he has. I never had Simmons with extremely high value and I think his has dropped. I don't believe CJ for Simmons straight is palatable for Philly and have never suggested so. However the gulf between these 2 players isn't 6 years of draft control. It just isn't.

Well by RAPTOR's projections it's an awful lot! Like 2X CJ.

It isn’t mutually exclusive for both sides to have bias.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

With most things I in life, rash, emotion filled decisions usually are not the best way to gauge anything.

A similar thing has been seen with Simmons asking out. There was the initial backlash, but no cooler heads are prevailing.

My point being, choosing an emotional timeframe to judge an opinion isn’t always the best.

Ah, so nobody is being emotional now with daily Simmons updates while Portland has pretty much been out of the news cycle. Makes sense. I'd say one side is being fairly emotional still. Because I'll tell you one thing for sure, this hasn't been a rational discussion in a while.

[Roy The Natural]

Yes, clearly Chuck is biased against the Blazers and McCollum, and for Curry. It couldn't possibly be that Blazers fans have any inherent bias. No chance.

I don't know about bias... I won't pick up that mantle. But clearly the metrics we have show that Curry and CJ are in completely different tiers as far as I'm court value. That was the crux of the argument anyways. Yes Curry is positive marginal value + in terms of impact. Yes CJ probably is about $6-$8M over what would be considered a solid deal annually. However, the massive gulf in player impact isn't just..m CJ's better.... CJ is a lot better. CJ is multiple steps up the impact ladder. Residing far closer to the Ben Simmons impact range than the Seth Curry one. At least that's the perception that the impact metrics we see tend to present.

Well....last post. But I'll default to someone who worked in a front office in analytics. Because as stated in said post, impact metrics aren't to be used like this but:

https://theathletic.com/2753332/2021/08/10/nba-player-tiers-lamelo-ball-kyle-lowry-julius-randle-check-in-at-tier-4-alongside-40-other-players/

Tier 4A:



And this is without taking salary into account. So clearly Seth Partnow is obtuse and biased.

Different people can have different views of players. The Athletic is behind a paywall. I saw your previous post but I couldn't look at anything to respond. There are numbers in the far right of the list. But there are no headers for us. What are those numbers?

[NYG]

Hey guys, can we PM arguments and not use thread space for it? Thanks!

Regarding Ben Simmons, part of me thinks it's going to be some weird off the radar team that's going to get him. Someone like the Suns or Jazz somehow.

[Blazer1776]

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

Has CJ gained a bunch of value? I'm not arguing he has. I never had Simmons with extremely high value and I think his has dropped. I don't believe CJ for Simmons straight is palatable for Philly and have never suggested so. However the gulf between these 2 players isn't 6 years of draft control. It just isn't.

Well by RAPTOR's projections it's an awful lot! Like 2X CJ.

1. Edited.

2. I haven't seen Chuck's bias here. I'm seeing him state his beliefs in value, and oddly enough Blazers fans coming at him for them when he has zero reason to be biased either against them or for Curry. He even said himself he undervalued Curry in reality.

CJ just had the ultimate stinker of a playoffs (and I'm higher on him than most) and yet here we are, with him now being valued again. When right after the Blazers lost the entire forum felt he had to go.

Edited here too: And I am not getting into this thread's ridiculousness. Blazers fans don't seem keen on trading CJ. That's great.

With most things I in life, rash, emotion filled decisions usually are not the best way to gauge anything.

A similar thing has been seen with Simmons asking out. There was the initial backlash, but no cooler heads are prevailing.

My point being, choosing an emotional timeframe to judge an opinion isn’t always the best.

Ah, so nobody is being emotional now with daily Simmons updates while Portland has pretty much been out of the news cycle. Makes sense. I'd say one side is being fairly emotional still. Because I'll tell you one thing for sure, this hasn't been a rational discussion in a while.

What I’m saying is that eventually cooler heads will prevail. There were plenty of Sixers fans who wanted Simmons out, regardless of the return (Much like McCollum after the playoff loss).

Time heals wounds, so naturally more and more people were going to away from the extremes towards the middle.

Same thing happened with Dame and him wanting out.

The sixers just still have people picking at the scabs, whereas the Blazers do not. However, I think as a whole, the perception of what to do with Ben has gotten more realistic over time, not less.

[eminence]

I'm trying to think what the proper pick balance is for a CJ/Ben swap. 2 picks from POR? A pick and 2 swaps? Just one pick feels short to me.