Ben Simmons Trade Thread Part 6

[Tomjas]

levert lmfao, gtfo. He is a chucker with no value whatsoever


With this type of deals simmons isnt gonna get traded any time soon. Enjoy the bench benni

Put him on the bench & enjoy the play in

[eyeatoma]

For me career suicide is playing too safe and never taking risks for a chance to be great.

If i fail, then atleast you took your shot at the highest payoff possible and can have that peace to start all over again because u did ur best.

Its much better than competing to the end of time with a meh roster and thinking what would have happened if we gambled.

There's taking a risk, and just being dumb. There's a difference.

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[DCasey91]

Wait let me get this straight.

It’s a risk to do the deal 100% (3 injury prone players). But it’s a risk getting up too fast in old age lol

People aren’t seeing the value side of things. Pacers pick and ours.

Not a tank but by virtue of circumstance a divy up top 15 pick to go (we don’t make the playoffs) with whatever the Pacers pick is.

That’s gives us two real bullets in the chamber, that already with Brogdon and Levert surpasses what Ben’s value is.

Say we mail it in for one year and get a low pick, but the effect is on the cost/benefit scale should open up thought.

I like min/max variance and top picks are top picks. I mean even today you can get a top 5-6 talent literally a couple of months ago at pick 20.

Worst case scenario is we are left with Embiid

..... Well guess what boys and girls we still only have Embiid right now.

So what is the problem here?

And don’t give me individual this or individual that. It’s about giving it the best possible chance.

Will we be a dynasty? Heck no.

Could we have a shot at one title? If you believe Embiid is the cornerstone as the best player on a championship team then okay lets repivot.

If you don’t believe Embiid is that then start again.

The Ingram’s, Lillard’s and Beal’s of the world might already be put to bed in regards to Ben as the main trade chip, we don’t know.

I do side with trading Ben before the season opener that’s my position. Because the sunk cost fallacy might be worse the longer it goes on.

Can’t trust a mule so don’t.

[eyeatoma]

Yes, 3 injury prone players is far worse than trading for Lillard even if he's 31.

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[76ciology]

Yeah, but ur not getting Lillard.

The pacers deal is feasible if you’re not getting a top tier star in return

Overall, I like that it seems like both deal and no deal have valid points it makes a deal more likely

[DCasey91]

Yes, 3 injury prone players is far worse than trading for Lillard even if he's 31.

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This is where I like to play devils advocate with my own statement.

1. For Lillard every theoretical and statistical measurement says that you are never going to win with CJ. I’m sure he’s had enough info and knowledge on this if not which I highly doubt anyway.

2. Lillard has been in the business a lot longer than Embiid has. He’s getting to that age where his legacy is at the forefront. Image folks especially to superstars.

3. Now Embiid + Lillard gives you that chance to win. Will we? we don’t know but a chance is all you can ask for they don’t come around often.

4. Lillard is more likely to come here than Embiid to the Blazers. Past player arcs are like this. Drexler anyone? He is beloved in Portland whatever decision he makes will be okay imo. He’s overstayed for how much lack of identification and fit the Blazers Org has given him. Humanistic terms he’s never had a shot at the big dance. That weighs heavily as you get older. 5 years and no shot or right now. Younger players have tasted higher success playing pivotal roles (Booker etc).

5. So what Ben does from here on could shape the NBA landscape in the months to come. Whichever way you look at it it’s a high risk/high reward proposition for us. But Dame is 100% a player you go all in and hope for the best.

A gangsta move would be to invite Dame over before the season starts him and Morey and no one else, no agents, no owners. Morey doesn’t strike me as a talker like that a person who could sell ice to the eskimos lol.

Straight give him the truth and dangle the prize in front of him which is highly saturated especially in NBA culture (Rings >). Feed his ego. You want five more years of the same or do you want your name mentioned with Erving, Wilt, A.I , Barkley, Malone? People will say you are the man that put us over the top. That’s highly highly enticing to a person’s ego (superstars have massive ones let’s not forget).

[eyeatoma]

Yes, 3 injury prone players is far worse than trading for Lillard even if he's 31.

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This is where I like to play devils advocate with my own statement.

1. For Lillard every theoretical and statistical measurement says that you are never going to win with CJ. I’m sure he’s had enough info and knowledge on this if not which I highly doubt anyway.

2. Lillard has been in the business a lot longer than Embiid has. He’s getting to that age where his legacy is at the forefront. Image folks especially to superstars.

3. Now Embiid + Lillard gives you that chance to win. Will we? we don’t know but a chance is all you can ask for they don’t come around often.

4. Lillard is more likely to come here than Embiid to the Blazers. Past player arcs are like this. Drexler anyone? He is beloved in Portland whatever decision he makes will be okay imo. He’s overstayed for how much lack of identification and fit the Blazers Org has given him. Humanistic terms he’s never had a shot at the big dance. That weighs heavily as you get older. 5 years and no shot or right now. Younger players have tasted higher success playing pivotal roles (Booker etc).

5. So what Ben does from here on could shape the NBA landscape in the months to come. Whichever way you look at it it’s a high risk/high reward proposition for us. But Dame is 100% a player you go all in and hope for the best.

A gangsta move would be to invite Dame over before the season starts him and Morey and no one else, no agents, no owners. Morey doesn’t strike me as a talker like that a person who could sell ice to the eskimos lol.

Straight give him the truth and dangle the prize in front of him which is highly saturated especially in NBA culture (Rings >). Feed his ego. You want five more years of the same or do you want your name mentioned with Erving, Wilt, A.I , Barkley, Malone? People will say you are the man that put us over the top. That’s highly highly enticing to a person’s ego (superstars have massive ones let’s not forget).

I'd love that but it would be tampering. If Morey could pull it off that would be amazing.

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[eyeatoma]

Yeah, but ur not getting Lillard.

The pacers deal is feasible if you’re not getting a top tier star in return

Overall, I like that it seems like both deal and no deal have valid points it makes a deal more likely

Portland starts 5-10 you might.

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[76ciology]

Yeah, but ur not getting Lillard.

The pacers deal is feasible if you’re not getting a top tier star in return

Overall, I like that it seems like both deal and no deal have valid points it makes a deal more likely

Portland starts 5-10 you might.

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What happens if that does not happen? That’s what i think is worth discussing.

[DCasey91]

Yeah, but ur not getting Lillard.

The pacers deal is feasible if you’re not getting a top tier star in return

Overall, I like that it seems like both deal and no deal have valid points it makes a deal more likely

Portland starts 5-10 you might.

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What happens if that does not happen? That’s what i think is worth discussing.

There’s numerous things to weigh up and can be argued being good or bad. I just did it before to my own statements lol.

I don’t think it’s quite black and white, different avenues and can end in doomsday or hitting the lotto.

Logically it’s makes sense to do a deal before the start of the season but is it?

I just think overall any hill that you want to stand on here (middle trade, big trade, tank, blow it up, whatever) should be open to roll down by cause and effect. None of us can crystal ball this and there’s always murky waters on each position.

Got to see each side of the equation.

As you say what if that doesn’t happen.

- Blazers start 10-5, Ben doesn’t even suit up, Morey still hasn’t traded Ben. That’s a realistic scenario. Now we are positionally bad or worse even. This is not an easy solution as there’s a multiple of factors none of us have control over.

Maybe it’s best to go for high leverage at every step. It’s doesn’t work out then plan B (tank for a year).

So a roundabout way of going back to Brogdon, Levert + Pick could be the tank system or it couldn’t.

Draft is the best way to get a stud.

[tasball]

As a Oz bball fan I must admit I was happy when Ben didn't suit up for the National team at Tokyo as blind Freddy could tell you his mid-range and FT shooting has deteriorated to a point where it has exposed a huge weakness and most Euro teams would have been onto that as well as the US.

Yes he's carrying on a bit like a princess but once your Coach and major co-star both call you out publicly, well Simmons has shown he doesn't give a flying fig about who it is, but I would say that's basically it with his relationship with them. Especially Embiid.

Obviously for his FT's to deteriorate from 80% as a high school phenomenon to 30% in the NBA play-offs, the guy is struggling mentally. and has been for sometime.

As the world knows now, the guy wouldn't attack the ring because he was sh*t scared he would be awarded FT's and the voice in his head is saying "I'm not going to make them".

Why wasn't this dealt with in the team framework - sports phycologist's are part of any modern day sport, let alone a comp like the NBA, ffs. Specialist coaches etc.

Maybe Simmons needs a year off basketball playing AFL (Essendon eh Ben?).

Good luck to Philly for the season and hope Embiid stays healthy, cheers.

[eyeatoma]

Yeah, but ur not getting Lillard.

The pacers deal is feasible if you’re not getting a top tier star in return

Overall, I like that it seems like both deal and no deal have valid points it makes a deal more likely

Portland starts 5-10 you might.

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What happens if that does not happen? That’s what i think is worth discussing.

Then we wait till December or the deadline and get a deal done. If that's the deal, I'd much rather take CJ over LeVert/Brogdon. Hell I'd take a package from the Kings, who again will be bad. We might be able to get Fox. We could get Beal if they're bad. We could get Shai, if Morey ponies up more. If Bulls are bad (they actually look good), then we could get LaVine. I'll discuss those first as options instead of settling for two injury prone players, of which one has a stress fracture in his back now.

[76ciology]

I’d take the Pacers deal over the Blazers’ CJ deal.

1.) it gives you more firepower (Brog+LaVert > CJ)
2.) it gives you a better pick

The deal gives me a good chance for a better outcome present and future. The deal also possibly can get me the highest payoff in any Ben Simmons deal with Brogdon, Lavert ending up healthy and I get a future star player with the Pacers pick.

Whereas the CJ deal for me is better on the likely median outcome of the Pacers deal but it wont near as good as the best case scenario of the Pacers deal.

Its like in a scale of 1 to 10, the Pacers deal ranges from 4 to 9, whereas the Blazers deal is more like a 6.

But ultimately, a lot hinges on the health of Brogdon and Lavert. And if our medical staff say its high risk, then I’d have to pass up on it. But if they say they’re OK, im going to act based on reason and consider the deal.

That’s how i look at it.

[ProcessDoctor]

I'd much rather hold out through December in hopes of acquiring a disgruntled star than settle for the likes of Caris Lmaovert. That boy is one of the most overrated "young" players in the NBA, has been ever since I can remember. He misses a ton of games and has the impact of an average starter when he actually plays.

Ben Simmons is our *last* trade chip that can net us a star. Morey should be setting sky-high standards for any Simmons return. He wants a chip. Embiid wants a chip. We need a 1B to go with Embiid's 1A. That's how it's gotta happen IMO.

[eyeatoma]

I’d take the Pacers deal over the Blazers’ CJ deal.

1.) it gives you more firepower (Brog+LaVert > CJ)
2.) it gives you a better pick

The deal gives me a good chance for a better outcome present and future. The deal also possibly can get me the highest payoff in any Ben Simmons deal with Brogdon, Lavert ending up healthy and I get a future star player with the Pacers pick.

Whereas the CJ deal for me is better on the likely median outcome of the Pacers deal but it wont near as good as the best case scenario of the Pacers deal.

Its like in a scale of 1 to 10, the Pacers deal ranges from 5 to 9, whereas the Blazers deal is more like a 6 or 7.

But ultimately, a lot hinges on the health of Brogdon and Lavert. And if our medical staff say its high risk, then I’d have to pass up on it. But if they say they’re OK, im going to act based on reason and consider the deal.

That’s how i look at it.

What's the good in firepower when they're injured half the time?

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[76ciology]

I’d take the Pacers deal over the Blazers’ CJ deal.

1.) it gives you more firepower (Brog+LaVert > CJ)
2.) it gives you a better pick

The deal gives me a good chance for a better outcome present and future. The deal also possibly can get me the highest payoff in any Ben Simmons deal with Brogdon, Lavert ending up healthy and I get a future star player with the Pacers pick.

Whereas the CJ deal for me is better on the likely median outcome of the Pacers deal but it wont near as good as the best case scenario of the Pacers deal.

Its like in a scale of 1 to 10, the Pacers deal ranges from 5 to 9, whereas the Blazers deal is more like a 6 or 7.

But ultimately, a lot hinges on the health of Brogdon and Lavert. And if our medical staff say its high risk, then I’d have to pass up on it. But if they say they’re OK, im going to act based on reason and consider the deal.

That’s how i look at it.

What's the good in firepower when they're injured half the time?

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Sounds like you agree that we have better firepower if both guys are healthy but your concern is do we have better firepower if they only played half the games. Short answer, no but the deal does not stop there.

Expected values based on range of outcomes.

50% of games Lavert plays & 50% of games Brogdon plays

Is that a big difference to 100% CJ plays? I do think there’s a difference whereas CJ is better than both Lavert and Brogdon. But the gap isnt huge like I dont see us becoming a contender with CJ than with Brogdon.

With that said, you get paid for a higher valued pick by the offseason. Pacers got the 12th pick while Blazers got the 23rd pick in 2021 draft, for this discussion let’s assume they end up on the same range. Where I do think that difference in those draft picks makes a big difference that CJ’s output for a season wont match the out put of “injured half the time”.

Then you also have to factor in that CJ is also injury prone also and the possibility of both Brogdon and Lavert not being injured or less injured than your projections.

[eyeatoma]

I’d take the Pacers deal over the Blazers’ CJ deal.

1.) it gives you more firepower (Brog+LaVert > CJ)
2.) it gives you a better pick

The deal gives me a good chance for a better outcome present and future. The deal also possibly can get me the highest payoff in any Ben Simmons deal with Brogdon, Lavert ending up healthy and I get a future star player with the Pacers pick.

Whereas the CJ deal for me is better on the likely median outcome of the Pacers deal but it wont near as good as the best case scenario of the Pacers deal.

Its like in a scale of 1 to 10, the Pacers deal ranges from 5 to 9, whereas the Blazers deal is more like a 6 or 7.

But ultimately, a lot hinges on the health of Brogdon and Lavert. And if our medical staff say its high risk, then I’d have to pass up on it. But if they say they’re OK, im going to act based on reason and consider the deal.

That’s how i look at it.

What's the good in firepower when they're injured half the time?

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Sounds like you agree that we have better firepower if both guys are healthy but your concern is do we have better firepower if they only played half the games. Short answer, no but the deal does not stop there.

Expected values based on range of outcomes.

50% of games Lavert plays & 50% of games Brogdon plays

Is that a big difference to 100% CJ plays? I do think there’s a difference whereas CJ is better than both Lavert and Brogdon. But the gap isnt huge like I dont see us becoming a contender with CJ than with Brogdon.

With that said, you get paid for a higher valued pick by the offseason. Pacers got the 12th pick while Blazers got the 23rd pick in 2021 draft, for this discussion let’s assume they end up on the same range. Where I do think that difference in those draft picks makes a big difference that CJ’s output for a season wont match the out put of “injured half the time”.

Then you also have to factor in that CJ is also injury prone also and the possibility of both Brogdon and Lavert not being injured or less injured than your projections.

McCollum isn't as bad as those two.

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[Rastas]

Yaaaaaa onward to Part 7
More of the same
Trade this trade that, some want some hate.
Still Morey will do nothing.

[DCasey91]

I'd much rather hold out through December in hopes of acquiring a disgruntled star than settle for the likes of Caris Lmaovert. That boy is one of the most overrated "young" players in the NBA, has been ever since I can remember. He misses a ton of games and has the impact of an average starter when he actually plays.

Ben Simmons is our *last* trade chip that can net us a star. Morey should be setting sky-high standards for any Simmons return. He wants a chip. Embiid wants a chip. We need a 1B to go with Embiid's 1A. That's how it's gotta happen IMO.

Have you thought about the line that if you hold, Ben tanks his own and market value by sitting out and none of the teams need him or even his value becomes even less on trade?

5-10 Blazers W/L
10-5 Blazers W/L

It’s less risk to short if the asset isn’t an asset anymore and becomes a liability.

[ProcessDoctor]

I'd much rather hold out through December in hopes of acquiring a disgruntled star than settle for the likes of Caris Lmaovert. That boy is one of the most overrated "young" players in the NBA, has been ever since I can remember. He misses a ton of games and has the impact of an average starter when he actually plays.

Ben Simmons is our *last* trade chip that can net us a star. Morey should be setting sky-high standards for any Simmons return. He wants a chip. Embiid wants a chip. We need a 1B to go with Embiid's 1A. That's how it's gotta happen IMO.

Have you thought about the line that if you hold, Ben tanks his own and market value by sitting out and none of the teams need him or even his value becomes even less on trade?

5-10 Blazers W/L
10-5 Blazers W/L

It’s less risk to short if the asset isn’t an asset anymore and becomes a liability.

His value can't and won't go any lower. Offers will still be there 20 games into the season. Some may disappear, but others will come up as teams get injured, have slow starts, etc. We should not be settling for JAGs like Brogdan and LeVert.