Ben Simmons Thread #2 (“Don’t make me contact Howard” Edition)

[shrink]

I question whether Ben Simmons is a positive contract. He’s on a max deal, and carries these major, major issues.

1. Shooting is horrible. Defenses can pack the middle to remove KAT’s biggest advantage and crowd Edwards drives.
2. He’s a young player who flat out hasn’t improved. Can he?
3. Confidence. Unwillingness to shoot. Wilts in pressure situations. Now says his head isn’t ready to play.
4. What if you trade assets for him and he gets unhappy? Others ignore PHI behavior - he’s shown he won’t live up to his contract.

I’m not the only person who questions his value. Dunc’d On podcast flat out calls him a negative contract.

I’ve watched Timberwolves fans in this forum for over ten years, and there is one commonality that stands the test of time. Most fans are so desperate to add a “big name,” that they are willing to sacrifice anything, and completely ignore the risks. To me, this seems to be happening again, with people who want to trade lots of value on the chance that Simmons overcomes each of these four major issues.

I hope he gets traded elsewhere soon, now that we finally have a future with Wiggins gone, KAT in the best shape of his life, Edwards and Jaden looking great, great new coach, Taylor leaving, and all our picks. We shouldn’t foolishly sacrifice a very bright future for a player we have to hope becomes something he has never been.

OK I want to address a few more points here.

We've covered why No. 1 isn't really as much of an issue as some of you want to make it out to be, but I guess I'll rehash it again. Over the last two years, Towns is a 40% 3-point shooter on 7 attempts per game. That is his greatest advantage. Defenses can clog the lane against that all they want against that. It's also borderline offensive to the offensive mind of Chris Finch to say he can't develop a system in a way where Simmons won't be crowding Towns and Edwards. He did it/is doing it with players like Okogie and Vanderbilt, but can't for a far better talent like Simmons?! Insulting.

Your third point is mitigated by the fact that he's not being asked to be the second option in Minnesota. He's not being asked to be the third option in Minnesota. People always criticized Kevin Garnett for shying away from the big shot and big moment in Minnesota, deferring to teammates instead. In Boston, that wasn't an issue because it was no longer his role. He was asked to focus on the things he did best.

Towns biggest advantage isn’t just his three point shooting. It’s the fact that he is a great three point shooter PLUS he is a great inside player. The fact that he is both is what makes him a nightmare match up, unlike Kelly Olynyk or Davis Bertans. If opposing coaches put a quick long PF on him to take away the three pointers, he is very effective driving underneath. Even if we can convince Simmons to play PF, I think opposing coaches can suddenly guard Towns with PF’s, and have a big defender waiting underneath when he goes inside.

I also don’t think waving a magic Finch wand is going to fix a profoundly flawed shooter like Simmons. At a minimum, those flaws make it much harder to maximize Towns and Edwards offensively.

[Krapinsky]

we should just waive a player and sign Biyombo..we have good perimeter defenders in beverly, okogie, prince and mcdaniels..need an enforcer in the paint. Biyombo don't have an outside shot..but he would mesh with towns. Twolves really need a bigger and stronger defender at the 4 or 5. vanderbilt is not strong enough or a paint patroller big.

Stretch Layman, sign Biyombo. I like Baynes more than Biyombo, but fine with either.

[SO_MONEY]

we should just waive a player and sign Biyombo..we have good perimeter defenders in beverly, okogie, prince and mcdaniels..need an enforcer in the paint. Biyombo don't have an outside shot..but he would mesh with towns. Twolves really need a bigger and stronger defender at the 4 or 5. vanderbilt is not strong enough or a paint patroller big.

Stretch Layman, sign Biyombo. I like Baynes more than Biyombo, but fine with either.

We don't need to create dead cap, we sure don't need to do it for EITHER of those guys. Just let him expire if need be.

[younggunsmn]

I have never heard one person rebut that. Guess what? We’re Minnesota, and any player, let alone a star, that refuses to play if he’s unhappy with his situation, should be a very big concern.

People who like Simmons ignore these risks, and refuse to discuss them, because they don’t want to admit to them. Simmons value isn’t based exclusively on his positives, like defense and passing with the ball in his hands. He’s on a max deal, and his value should be based on a complete picture. Ignoring the negatives isn’t real.

As to fear of Simmons wanting out, I get the feeling this is very personal for him.
A lot to do with Embiid and Rivers in particular and a little bit about Morey offering him up for Harden.
This is something anyone should be able to relate to walking into a workplace every day with people or situations they would like to make a change from. There is a lot of personal stuff behind the scenes we don't see.
Look at how differently Rosas operated behind the scenes from his public persona.

Barring a catastrophic injury or ridiculous overpay I don't see a scenario where trading for SImmons sets this franchise back like you fear it would. IMHO We are at the point considering the ages and contract situations of our best players where we need to push some chips into the middle of the table.

[Klomp]

If opposing coaches put a quick long PF on him to take away the three pointers, he is very effective driving underneath. Even if we can convince Simmons to play PF, I think opposing coaches can suddenly guard Towns with PF’s, and have a big defender waiting underneath when he goes inside.

I also don’t think waving a magic Finch wand is going to fix a profoundly flawed shooter like Simmons. At a minimum, those flaws make it much harder to maximize Towns and Edwards offensively.

Finch made it work with the likes of Okogie and Vanderbilt at PF. Simmons is bigger, stronger, a better screener, a better cutter, and an all-around better player than both of those players. I just don't see why it has worked with those guys yet people believe it cannot and will not work with Simmons in the same role.

[younggunsmn]

Towns biggest advantage isn’t just his three point shooting. It’s the fact that he is a great three point shooter PLUS he is a great inside player. The fact that he is both is what makes him a nightmare match up, unlike Kelly Olynyk or Davis Bertans. If opposing coaches put a quick long PF on him to take away the three pointers, he is very effective driving underneath. Even if we can convince Simmons to play PF, I think opposing coaches can suddenly guard Towns with PF’s, and have a big defender waiting underneath when he goes inside.

I also don’t think waving a magic Finch wand is going to fix a profoundly flawed shooter like Simmons. At a minimum, those flaws make it much harder to maximize Towns and Edwards offensively.

So in your scenario the other team is guarding Simmons with a 5 and you don't feel we would be able to exploit that?
So the Jazz and Nuggets are putting Gobert and Jokic on Simmons and letting them chase him out on the perimeter, off of double and triple screens and dribble handoffs? This isnt Taj Gibson we are talking about here or some traditional 4/5.
There is more than one way to scheme a big defender out of the paint.
They want to sag off him into the paint? Might as well give him a runway to the rim.

This is the exact thing Giannis uses to exploit teams, except Towns is a much more talented partner than Brook Lopez.

I will cede one point, and that is we need to be careful to make sure we keep enough 3 point shooting in a Simmons trade.
I don't think there is a huge gap dropoff replacing Beasley with Nowell, but it might not be great if say Beasley, McDaniels, and Prince all went out. I would try to keep one of Beasley and McDaniels if possible.

[Klomp]

I will cede one point, and that is we need to be careful to make sure we keep enough 3 point shooting in a Simmons trade.
I don't think there is a huge gap dropoff replacing Beasley with Nowell, but it might not be great if say Beasley, McDaniels, and Prince all went out. I would try to keep one of Beasley and McDaniels if possible.

This is where I have some pause as well. I don't want to trade Prince. I really don't want to trade Beverley. That makes a trade difficult and near impossible.

I'd be slightly more willing to trade Prince if we can keep McDaniels, but that might mean trading both Bolmaro and Reid, for example. Also hard to do.

Still...where I go back to is this question. Will Jaden McDaniels really stop me from trading for a Top 50 player? Will Taurean Prince really stop me from trading for a Top 50 player? Will Patrick Beverley really stop me from trading for a Top 50 player? I'm not sure I'm happy as a fan if management says yes to any of those questions.

[Klomp]

Sixers are 8-14 without Ben Simmons since the bubble restart. They should be careful what they wish for.

[Note30]

If we get Simmons hed be the third best PF we've ever had.

After KG and Love

[shrink]

I have never heard one person rebut that. Guess what? We’re Minnesota, and any player, let alone a star, that refuses to play if he’s unhappy with his situation, should be a very big concern.

People who like Simmons ignore these risks, and refuse to discuss them, because they don’t want to admit to them. Simmons value isn’t based exclusively on his positives, like defense and passing with the ball in his hands. He’s on a max deal, and his value should be based on a complete picture. Ignoring the negatives isn’t real.

As to fear of Simmons wanting out, I get the feeling this is very personal for him.
A lot to do with Embiid and Rivers in particular and a little bit about Morey offering him up for Harden.
This is something anyone should be able to relate to walking into a workplace every day with people or situations they would like to make a change from. There is a lot of personal stuff behind the scenes we don't see.
Look at how differently Rosas operated behind the scenes from his public persona.

There are loads of players who have had personal problems with their team.

Nobody has simply refused to show up to start the season until Ben.

Once a player has decided he won’t honor a contract, then he is someone that is not ruled by either the money or his own signature on a contract. How does a sensitive player like that act the next time he is unhappy?

[fattymcgee]

I don’t understand how little discussion there is on Simmons flaws. People price him like the player they thought he would become two years ago - not on who he is, or the issues he has failed to overcome.

I don't understand how you could make a more ridiculous statement. You obviously haven't read this thread or the previous thread. There are over a hundred posts about how people don't want him because of his flaws just like there over a hundred posts about why people want him. I think SO_MONEY alone has over a hundred posts saying why he didn't want Simmons.

I said “discussion.”

For example, I have mentioned that Simmons is a risk because if he is unhappy, he might refuse to play for us too. His contract means nothing to him. Has anyone, once, said that shouldn’t be a concern?

I have never heard one person rebut that. Guess what? We’re Minnesota, and any player, let alone a star, that refuses to play if he’s unhappy with his situation, should be a very big concern.

People who like Simmons ignore these risks, and refuse to discuss them, because they don’t want to admit to them. Simmons value isn’t based exclusively on his positives, like defense and passing with the ball in his hands. He’s on a max deal, and his value should be based on a complete picture. Ignoring the negatives isn’t real.

Again, you make no sense. Everything has been discussed over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

I don't get why people keep arguing it, it's all been said many times over. The only reason I keep wasting my time reading this thread each day is to see if there are any new rumors.

[jpatrick]

I actually think Simmons would be the second best PF we’ve ever had. Love put up numbers but was such a defensive liability, he struggles to translate that to wins. Simmons for his issues, his play has translated to wins more than anyone on our roster. I keep going back to he was #2 on a team that had the best record in the East last year and a triple bounce on the rim from likely an NBA champion.

I like McDaniels as a prospect but he’s really overrated on this forum. His creation skills over flat out bad. If you watched summer league, you saw he had to frequently pick up his dribble when pressed. The Dun’c on podcast had the stat where the team scored only four points on ALL his summer league creation attempts, which they rightfully called flat out awful. He can be a high quality role player if the shot becomes more consistent, but I’m not convinced as of right now that he’d contribute more to wins than Prince or Okogie.

Beasley, if dealt, has a skill. Elite shooting. But what else? He can’t dribble. Can’t defend. Not a great passer. Like McDaniels, he has a role, but he’s really one dimensional at the moment. And both Jon K and Jim Pete have said he came into camp really out of shape, which corresponds to the eye test. He’s looks big and really unathletic right now.

All that said, if I’m MN and making a Simmons trade, I push for Russell to be included and for us to keep as many picks and other assets as possible. Simmons will take a lot of Russell’s creation opportunities and if he doesn’t have the ball in his hand a lot, is he really more effective than a superior defender like Bev. With Simmons and Edwards, you wouldn’t even need a traditional PG in that spot, you could slide in someone like Beasley. But more importantly, IF we acquire Simmons, I don’t see Russell being happy long term. He has already said he wants to be extended this upcoming offseason, I just don’t see that happening with Towns, Simmons, and Edwards on the team.

[younggunsmn]

There are loads of players who have had personal problems with their team.

Nobody has simply refused to show up to start the season until Ben.

Once a player has decided he won’t honor a contract, then he is someone that is not ruled by either the money or his own signature on a contract. How does a sensitive player like that act the next time he is unhappy?

Have you already forgotten what Kawaii Leonard did to the Spurs?
This is the new reality of player empowerment we live in. When I was a little kid there wasn't even real free agency in most sports.
It we are afraid of sensitive players leaving, might as well as give up on chasing or keeping star players at all.

It wouldnt even be the 2nd time it happened to this team. Marbury forced his way out because of KG jealousy, the writing was on the wall from Kevin Love for a long time. Most teams handle this before it reaches the point of not showing up or showing up and turning it into a circus.

Look at it this way, Simmons met with ownership in July and they gave him a promise to trade him.
Simmons and his agent gave the Sixers the courtesy of staying quiet all summer to preserve Morey's leverage,
until it became clear the Sixers had no intention of accepting a reasonable offer for him.

And SImmons has personally stayed quiet and let his agent do all the talking, even as he is getting destroyed in the media.
He's not Jimmy Butler calling in ESPN to do interviews and going nuclear in practice burning every bridge in sight.
When a guy's agent is floating rumors that he'd be happy accepting a trade to SACRAMENTO of all places,
it makes it clear this is a divorce and not just the usual superteam/ring chasing demand.

Could he turn around and do it to us? absolutely. but at that point we've probably lost Towns too.
Which makes me a bit wary of trading picks too far out. But it wouldnt scare me away from what I considered a fair deal for SImmons.

[Nick K]

If we get Simmons hed be the third best PF we've ever had.

After KG and Love

Simmons has never played PF to my knowledge. He likes to have the ball in his hands. One of the reasons Philly threw him under the bus was he was soft inside.

He needs to play the 4 here and rebound like a demon. Is that even him? Can he be great inside? We know he can't shoot outside.

I love the things he's good at but there is much he's not good at. Those questions concern me. Am I wrong?

[younggunsmn]

Watch on YouTube

Interesting points here by Gilbert Arenas on how SImmons should be used.
He argues to use him like Giannis or Westbrook (two also mediocre to below average shooters with FT% consistency issues) with the ball in his hands in constant attack mode.
Is he talented enough to pull that off? Just what is his ceiling?
Is it better to just send D-Lo out in a Simmons trade and hand him the keys?
If we add him without sending Russell out, will we end up putting an artificial cap on his ceiling the same way Philly did?
Or are those comparisons just hyperbole>
Can we have one of SImmons/Russell run the bench unit so we get some of both worlds from SImmons?
Because if SImmons can be as good as Arenas and Barnes think, it will take me all of 5 seconds to send Russell packing if that's what it takes.

[Domejandro]

If we get Simmons hed be the third best PF we've ever had.

After KG and Love

Simmons has never played PF to my knowledge. He likes to have the ball in his hands. One of the reasons Philly threw him under the bus was he was soft inside.

He needs to play the 4 here and rebound like a demon. Is that even him? Can he be great inside? We know he can't shoot outside.

I love the things he's good at but there is much he's not good at. Those questions concern me. Am I wrong?

Effectively the only thing Ben Simmons is subpar at is his shooting ability (where he takes the word "subpar" to the next level). Defensively, he is a wing who defends the other team's best player, but still consistently averages 7-9 boards a game. His rebounding is not something to be concerned about.

[shrink]

for what it's worth, here are the respective player impact plus/minuses over the last 4 seasons (since simmons's rookie year):

6.27 harden
5.12 curry
4.29 lillard
4.20 cp3
3.36 doncic

3.17 westbrook
3.12 kyrie
2.79 lowry
2.75 holiday
2.71 kemba

2.53 conley
1.68 simmons
1.28 rubio
1.17 brogdon
1.03 d murray
1.00 j murray

controls for quality of teammates

doncic is on an upward trajectory and cp3 is drifting in the other direction.

[shrink]

One of the differences in opinion we have here is that I feel the pro-Simmons argument is, “well, except for shooting, Ben is great.” Personally I see four big scary risks, not just shooting, but shooting is a huge huge deal. I posted the stats above, but Simmons net value is closer to Rubio than true stars.

This morning, I was listening to RealGM’s Northwest preview podcast. Right out of the gate, David Locke said if you’re not a center, you can’t play in the nba if you shoot under 30% 3P. I wouldn’t go that far, but I do feel that no matter how good you are at other skills, you can’t be a star with bad shooting

[Merc_Porto]

One of the differences in opinion we have here is that I feel the pro-Simmons argument is, “well, except for shooting, Ben is great.” Personally I see four big scary risks, not just shooting, but shooting is a huge huge deal. I posted the stats above, but Simmons net value is closer to Rubio than true stars.

This morning, I was listening to RealGM’s Northwest preview podcast. Right out of the gate, David Locke said if you’re not a center, you can’t play in the nba if you shoot under 30% 3P. I wouldn’t go that far, but I do feel that no matter how good you are at other skills, you can’t be a star with bad shooting

But he is tho. That's how good he is.

Don't you think is going to be way different for Ben to have the opportunity to play with a big like KAT instead of Embiid (spacing wise)?

[jpatrick]

One of the differences in opinion we have here is that I feel the pro-Simmons argument is, “well, except for shooting, Ben is great.” Personally I see four big scary risks, not just shooting, but shooting is a huge huge deal. I posted the stats above, but Simmons net value is closer to Rubio than true stars.

This morning, I was listening to RealGM’s Northwest preview podcast. Right out of the gate, David Locke said if you’re not a center, you can’t play in the nba if you shoot under 30% 3P. I wouldn’t go that far, but I do feel that no matter how good you are at other skills, you can’t be a star with bad shooting

It’s interesting. I think coming out of college, people saw him as a poor man’s Lebron. Maybe the right comp is a Giannis. They similarly can’t shoot threes, struggle horribly from the line, and are incredible defensive players. Giannis is bigger, but not by much, both “can” play center but generally do not. Simmons is a much better facilitator/passer than Giannis.

I don’t think teaching Simmons to shoot is the key to unlocking him. Teaching him to attack the rim is the key.