1970s Top Team Tourney, Ro32: '78 Bullets @ '75 Warriors

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1978 Washington Bullets (#19) @ The 1975 Golden State Warriors (#14)

Overall:

Record: ‘75 Warriors, 48 wins (30th) > '78 Bullets, 44 wins (36th)
RSRS: ‘75 Warriors, +2.86 (29th) > '78 Bullets, +0.82 (37th)
PSRS: ‘75 Warriors, +8.43 (17th) > '78 Bullets, +8.42 (11th)

When the '78 Bullets have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '78 Bullets' offense vs '75 Warriors' defense:

Regular Season: +0.4 Offensive Rating (29th) vs -0.4 Defensive Rating (37th): +0.0 expected
Playoffs: +3.6 Offensive Rating (9th) vs -5.1 Defensive Rating (10th): -1.5 expected

Lineup:

PG: Tom Henderson, 17.0% SS on -3.3% rTS, 1-.5 / 2.4 / 5.0 / 1.3: +1.9 playoff OBPM
SG: Kevin Grevey, 26.4% SS on -1.9% rTS, 14.3 / 3.3 / 1.8 / 0.9: +0.9 playoff OBPM
SF: Bob Dandridge, 22.0% SS on +1.3% rTS, 17.9 / 5.5 / 3.5 / 1.8: +2.5 playoff OBPM
PF: Elvin Hayes, 22.3% SS on -2.6% rTS, 18.2 / 12.3 / 1.7 / 3.0: +3.7 playoff OBPM
C: Wes Unseld, 9.5% SS on +2.0% rTS, 7.0 / 11.0 / 3.8 / 1.7: +2.7 playoff OBPM
6th: Mitch Kupchak, 23.8% SS on +4.9% rTS, 14.7 / 6.4 / 1.0 / 0.9: -0.8 playoff OBPM
7th: Charles Johnson, 20.3% SS on -7.5% rTS, 7.7 / 2.2 / 1.9 / 0.7: +0.3 playoff OBPM


When the '75 Warriors have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '75 Warriors' offense vs '78 Bullets' defense:

Regular Season: +2.7 Offensive Rating (11th) vs -0.4 Defensive Rating (36th): +2.3 expected
Playoffs: +2.6 Offensive Rating (13th) vs -2.6 Defensive Rating (23rd): +0.0 expected

Lineup:

PG: Butch Beard, 15.9% SS on +8.3% rTS, 11.9 / 3.6 / 3.9 / 1.6: -0.7 playoff OBPM
SG: Charles Johnson, 20.7% SS on -7.1% rTS, 10.1 / 3.6 / 2.7 / 1.7: -0.2 playoff OBPM
SF: Rick Barry, 33.4% SS on +0.7% rTS, 28.4 / 5.3 / 5.8 / 3.1: +6.3 playoff OBPM
PF: Jamaal Wilkes, 21.9% SS on -2.9% rTS, 13.2 / 7.6 / 2.0 / 1.5: +2.1 playoff OBPM
C: Clifford Ray, 12.4% SS on +4.9% rTS, 8.7 / 9.9 / 2.0 / 2.4: +1.6 playoff OBPM

Thoughts:

- Injuries: Wes Unseld will miss Game 4, Bob Dandridge Game 5 for the Bullets.
- The ‘78 Bullets weren’t particularly great in the regular season, winning 44 games and not posting an SRS above +1. But they got into the playoffs and ripped through everybody. I feel like I’m repeating myself, because this is a thing that happened to the Bullets in the 70s a *lot*. So, yeah, about those playoffs. They beat the league average Hawks 2-0 by 6.5 points a game. They barely edged the 2-seed Spurs (+3.2) by 0.2 points a game (4-2). They beat the 1-seed defending-conference-champ Sixers 4-2 by 3.1 ppg, holding Dr. J to an off-series. And in the NBA Finals they beat the upstart Sonics by 6.2 points per game. With the exception of the tight series against the Spurs (they couldn’t really stop Gervin) it was a pretty dominant run. And it was like they did every year; Elvin Hayes stepped it up in the playoffs, Dandridge gave them a solid other scorer and their defense played everybody tough. Nothing overtly sexy, just consistently excellent. And they so consistently played better in the postseason that we can definitely treat the postseason Bullets as the real Bullets.
- The 70s didn’t have that many really high volume scorers (30% ShotShare or higher): Bob McAdoo, Tiny Archibald, George Gervin and Rick Barry. But Barry was the only one to do it on a team playing in the NBA Finals. He wasn’t incredibly efficient or anything, but he remains a very curious outlier. And the offense ran through him. In the playoffs, the Warriors’ defense is what stepped up, smothering the very capable ‘75 Bulls and sweeping the Bullets.
- So. We know that the ‘75 Warriors won their title by beating the ‘75 Bullets, which are only three years removed from the Bullets of this matchup. And they won, sweeping the series. But how persuasive is that? It was a sweep, but only 4 points a game. And this was the Chenier/Riordan/Porter Bullets, not the Grevey/Henderson/Dandridge Bullets, so we’re talking about 60% starter turnover here. But I’ll also point out that Hayes only shot 46.4%, dropping the normally resilient Hayes 3% from his regular season TS%. So it may be reasonable to expect something similar.
- Legit, no real ideas here. I don’t know the Warriors that well, so I’m all ears to the wiser-than-I members of the voting pool



I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn.


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[penbeast0]

Yeah, still pissed about the 75 finals. 2 one point losses, the other two were well within reach (all within 10), it's when people started talking about Elvin Hayes as a choke artist when, as you say, he was normally resilient in the playoffs. Barry did all the scoring for his team, averaging almost 30/game while the next highest in that final was Wilkes at 11.5/game and the Wiz had no answer. They were starting 3 guards (Mike Riordan was the nominal SF but he was a small, 6-4 jump shooter) and Hayes couldn't guard Barry away from the basket even if they switched up which they wouldn't because Wilkes at that point in his career was an undersized midpost scorer without much range. Warriors were deep, as the Bullets should have been but the Bullets shortened their rotation more.

78 Bullets are a much better matchup for Barry as Dandridge had both the strength and the quickness to match up to Barry (for that matter, Grevey was a bit bigger than Riordan as well). If they can contain Barry, the rest of the team hadn't developed yet. When Dandridge is out, it will be a bit rough because Greg Ballard wasn't quite ready yet and otherwise you are moving Grevey to forward (Charles Johnson would take the guard minutes) or SMOY candidate Kupchak who was more of an energy big. For the Warriors, like Ballard, Wilkes and Phil Smith would develop into very good players but weren't there yet though both were starters, Jeff Mullins was a bit past his prime. I don't think the 78 Bullets are as good offensively as the 75 team but they should be a better defensive matchup on Barry and that is the key to the series.

Bullets in 6

[homecourtloss]

The injuries to Unseld and Dandridge don’t help things. Two playoff monster teams but underwhelming regular seasons. That ‘75 Bullets team was really good and got swept by basically the same cast though Barry is 33 in this version and not as good. I could really see it either way but the injuries make me lean towards the Warriors in 6.

[sansterre]

Yeah, still pissed about the 75 finals. 2 one point losses, the other two were well within reach (all within 10), it's when people started talking about Elvin Hayes as a choke artist when, as you say, he was normally resilient in the playoffs. Barry did all the scoring for his team, averaging almost 30/game while the next highest in that final was Wilkes at 11.5/game and the Wiz had no answer. They were starting 3 guards (Mike Riordan was the nominal SF but he was a small, 6-4 jump shooter) and Hayes couldn't guard Barry away from the basket even if they switched up which they wouldn't because Wilkes at that point in his career was an undersized midpost scorer without much range. Warriors were deep, as the Bullets should have been but the Bullets shortened their rotation more.

78 Bullets are a much better matchup for Barry as Dandridge had both the strength and the quickness to match up to Barry (for that matter, Grevey was a bit bigger than Riordan as well). If they can contain Barry, the rest of the team hadn't developed yet. When Dandridge is out, it will be a bit rough because Greg Ballard wasn't quite ready yet and otherwise you are moving Grevey to forward (Charles Johnson would take the guard minutes) or SMOY candidate Kupchak who was more of an energy big. For the Warriors, like Ballard, Wilkes and Phil Smith would develop into very good players but weren't there yet though both were starters, Jeff Mullins was a bit past his prime. I don't think the 78 Bullets are as good offensively as the 75 team but they should be a better defensive matchup on Barry and that is the key to the series.

Bullets in 6

PenBeast, do you think that the Warriors "held" Hayes to a weak series, or do you think he merely got unlucky?

I, absenting other factors, go Warriors in 7, mostly because of home court advantage and the injuries to the Bullets. It wouldn't take much to swing my view, and I'll keep thinking. If Barry can be slowed at all that would probably be the series.

[Odinn21]

The injuries to Unseld and Dandridge don’t help things. Two playoff monster teams but underwhelming regular seasons. That ‘75 Bullets team was really good and got swept by basically the same cast though Barry is 33 in this version and not as good. I could really see it either way but the injuries make me lean towards the Warriors in 6.

For what it's worth, it was probably the least sweeping sweeps in the NBA playoff history. The Bullets lost 2 games within one possession, they lost the 1st game with unfortunate calls in the last quarter. The only convincing victory the Warriors got was game 3. It could (and probably should) have been a tie at 2-2 and not a sweep.

---

Dandridge is a massive issue for the Warriors match-up wise. Rick Barry's playmaking volume would go down so much against Dandridge, especially considering he was going up against Mark Riordan and Nick Weatherspoon in 1975. That's like going from 2007 Michael Finley to 1992 Scottie Pippen. And the Warriors had no other reliable form of creating an offensive flow. Even though 1978 Bullets weren't much different from their 1975 version, these things are matter of match-ups, so, I think the Bullets would win even with the injuries.

Vote: The Bullets in 7.

[penbeast0]

Yeah, still pissed about the 75 finals. 2 one point losses, the other two were well within reach (all within 10), it's when people started talking about Elvin Hayes as a choke artist when, as you say, he was normally resilient in the playoffs. Barry did all the scoring for his team, averaging almost 30/game while the next highest in that final was Wilkes at 11.5/game and the Wiz had no answer. They were starting 3 guards (Mike Riordan was the nominal SF but he was a small, 6-4 jump shooter) and Hayes couldn't guard Barry away from the basket even if they switched up which they wouldn't because Wilkes at that point in his career was an undersized midpost scorer without much range. Warriors were deep, as the Bullets should have been but the Bullets shortened their rotation more.

78 Bullets are a much better matchup for Barry as Dandridge had both the strength and the quickness to match up to Barry (for that matter, Grevey was a bit bigger than Riordan as well). If they can contain Barry, the rest of the team hadn't developed yet. When Dandridge is out, it will be a bit rough because Greg Ballard wasn't quite ready yet and otherwise you are moving Grevey to forward (Charles Johnson would take the guard minutes) or SMOY candidate Kupchak who was more of an energy big. For the Warriors, like Ballard, Wilkes and Phil Smith would develop into very good players but weren't there yet though both were starters, Jeff Mullins was a bit past his prime. I don't think the 78 Bullets are as good offensively as the 75 team but they should be a better defensive matchup on Barry and that is the key to the series.

Bullets in 6

PenBeast, do you think that the Warriors "held" Hayes to a weak series, or do you think he merely got unlucky?

I, absenting other factors, go Warriors in 7, mostly because of home court advantage and the injuries to the Bullets. It wouldn't take much to swing my view, and I'll keep thinking. If Barry can be slowed at all that would probably be the series.

Hard to tell from a 4 game sample that I watched 50 years ago. If I went back play by play, I might be able to make a better determination but judging from the defenders, both Ray and Wilkes were solid though not great with very different styles. I don't remember who was on Hayes and who was on Unseld but normally with Hayes, he could get to his spot and get his shot off against almost everyone; it was just not that good a shot being a relatively high degree of difficulty . . . sort of like Hakeem more recently (though Hakeem was a step up from Hayes both offensively and defensively).

[sansterre]

The injuries to Unseld and Dandridge don’t help things. Two playoff monster teams but underwhelming regular seasons. That ‘75 Bullets team was really good and got swept by basically the same cast though Barry is 33 in this version and not as good. I could really see it either way but the injuries make me lean towards the Warriors in 6.

For what it's worth, it was probably the least sweeping sweeps in the NBA playoff history. The Bullets lost 2 games within one possession, they lost the 1st game with unfortunate calls in the last quarter. The only convincing victory the Warriors got was game 3. It could (and probably should) have been a tie at 2-2 and not a sweep.

---

Dandridge is a massive issue for the Warriors match-up wise. Rick Barry's playmaking volume would go down so much against Dandridge, especially considering he was going up against Mark Riordan and Nick Weatherspoon in 1975. That's like going from 2007 Michael Finley to 1992 Scottie Pippen. And the Warriors had no other reliable form of creating an offensive flow. Even though 1978 Bullets weren't much different from their 1975 version, these things are matter of match-ups, so, I think the Bullets would win even with the injuries.

Vote: The Bullets in 7.

"Least sweeping sweep" is definitely an appropriate statement.

Was Dandridge really that much of an upgrade over Riordan/Weatherspoon? I'm not disagreeing, just looking for more info. I haven't heard of Dandridge being considered a great defender or Riordan/Weatherspoon being considered awful (not that I know much about them). Any additional thoughts are valued. And that PenBeast said something similar certainly gives it more weight.

[penbeast0]

Actually all 3 were considered good defenders, Dandridge certainly the best -- marginal all-defense candidate type. The trouble with Riordan was that he was a 6'4 2 playing 3 and Barry was a combo forward who was one of the best in the league. Dandridge, while still smaller than Barry, was significantly bigger and played bigger than Riordan.

[sansterre]

Okay. I'm hearing two knowledgable voices holding that Dandridge would slow Barry down at least a little, and that's enough for me. Bullets by 6.

[sansterre]

The Bullets squeak this one out, 3-1. They advance to face the '70 Knicks.