OT: COVID-19 thread #4

[Dresden]

The president is blaming 100% of the Covid problem on the 25% of Americans who are not vaccinated.

Not sure if it’s conjecture or false dichotomy .

I guess statistically, he should only be blaming about 97% of the Covid problem on them. That's about the % of Covid patients that hospitals are having to take in that have not been vaccinated.

The daily cases are extremely high about 100k per day. Hospital admissions is not the only gauge of the pandemic.

But they are what is breaking the health care system, causing shortages of ICU beds, putting health care staff in jeopardy, and costing all of us a lot of money.

[dougthonus]

The president is blaming 100% of the Covid problem on the 25% of Americans who are not vaccinated.

Not sure if it’s conjecture or false dichotomy .

I guess statistically, he should only be blaming about 97% of the Covid problem on them. That's about the % of Covid patients that hospitals are having to take in that have not been vaccinated.

The daily cases are extremely high about 100k per day. Hospital admissions is not the only gauge of the pandemic.

1: 56.8% of the country is fully vaccinated, 65% 1 dose, so it's a lot more than 25%.

2: While hospital admissions aren't the only gauge of the pandemic and neither are deaths, they're probably the most important gauges along with long term side effects.

If there weren't significant hospitalizations/deaths/long term side effects and this was just something that sucked for a week then we'd probably not be making news over it.

And it certainly isn't all the fault of the people whom aren't vaccinated. Delta clearly can cut through vaccines and was dominant prior to the vaccine being readily available so even immediate and 100% vaccine compliance wouldn't have made things completely go away.

That said, they're contributing negatively to the pandemic considerably more than the vaccinated in transmission, costs that we collectively share as a society, and tying up our medical systems from dealing with other problems. In terms of the impact the pandemic is having on society, the unvaccinated probably are causing 70%-80% of it which is frustrating, because they could trivially lower their impact significantly.

The other group that is really hurting us is the "I don't want to check" group. Those whom are sick, and try to power through it like our society has previously built up as a collective good and don't actually want to get a COVID test and continue to go out infecting people until it gets really bad. This group is also extremely frustrating, but as a member of this group for a long time with other illnesses, I understand the difficulty in changing your mindset, and if you are in a "no work, no pay" job with no sick days, I also understand the need to put food on the table. This group is frustrating by I have a bit more empathy because they are having to make really difficult choices vs the other group whom is largely ignorant and the difficulty is based on misinformation / irrational fears (not for 100% of the people in it, there are some that have very rational fears based on individual circumstances).

[micromonkey]

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-1457-new-cases-447-serious-cases-681632

Interesting not just from a smart policy POV--but also later there should be a good amount of data on antibody levels, T cells, etc when mixing vaccine doses. The bad side is your sample is people who had bad reactions-so it may be different than the general population.


Also interesting treatment
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/astrazenecas-covid-19-drug-cocktail-meets-main-goal-late-stage-trial-2021-10-11/
A shot in the arm.

The drug, a combination of two antibodies called AZD7442, reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 or death by 50% in non-hospitalised patients who have had symptoms for seven days or less...

The risk reduction was even better in patients who started therapy within just five days of initial symptoms

So no IV bag--easier distribution and likely lower cost. Doesn't appear as powerful a reduction as regeneron--but another tool-like Merck's drug. Either get one shot or take a truckload of pills every day for 5 days--the shot may have some appeal as a one and done--as well as perfect compliance

This is the last point.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-antibodies-wane-six-months-after-second-shot-except-among-one-group-1.10273120
Overweight people have less immune fade

And this breaks it down even more
https://www.healio.com/news/endocrinology/20210519/obesity-increases-likelihood-of-peak-covid19-antibody-levels-after-infection

Seems like overweight people have stronger initial responses and they fade slower-McDonalds just has to be involved.

So this should be good for the US I hope
So the new message will be get your shot and go to the drive thru?
Ba da ba ba ba? The real conspiracy isn't big pharma--its the suppression of Fast food - we need to be getting fatter!

[waffle]

I read in somewhere reputable (NYT I think) that <5% of the cases that require hospital admission are breakthroughs, so just to re-emphasize the vaccine is known and advertized as not just being able to largely prevent Covid but also reduce the symptoms/impact as well (which sometimes gets lost in the debate)

It really is largely an issue of the un-vaccinated. We really shouldn't split hairs on that.

[waffle]

ignore

[Almost Retired]

My last post on this thread:

According to a recent Wall Street survey Covid has dropped to 3rd place on their list of worries. I guess that must mean the pandemic is almost over. Wait, how would Wall Street know that?

"Wall Street Is Done With Covid: Pandemic No Longer Among Top 3 Risks For Market

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, OCT 11, 2021 - 07:20 PM
The covid scare is officially over.

According to the latest monthly survey of 600 global market participants conducted by Deutsche Bank, for the first time since June, the biggest perceived risk to markets is no longer covid. Instead the top three risks are i) higher inflation and bond yields, ii) central bank policy error and iii) strong growth failing to materialize or being very short lived (i.e. stagflation and/or recession). New covid variants that bypass vaccines has slumped from 1st place, which it occupied for the previous three months, to 4th place in October."

Clipped out the rest of your post as it had nothing to do with COVID and was derailing towards more random conspiracy theories in other areas. Take it to the CA board if you want to talk politics

[dougthonus]

My last post on this thread:

According to a recent Wall Street survey Covid has dropped to 3rd place on their list of worries. I guess that must mean the pandemic is almost over. Wait, how would Wall Street know that?

"Wall Street Is Done With Covid: Pandemic No Longer Among Top 3 Risks For Market

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, OCT 11, 2021 - 07:20 PM
The covid scare is officially over.

According to the latest monthly survey of 600 global market participants conducted by Deutsche Bank, for the first time since June, the biggest perceived risk to markets is no longer covid. Instead the top three risks are i) higher inflation and bond yields, ii) central bank policy error and iii) strong growth failing to materialize or being very short lived (i.e. stagflation and/or recession). New covid variants that bypass vaccines has slumped from 1st place, which it occupied for the previous three months, to 4th place in October."

I think it's fair to say the market views COVID as a more or less stabilized situation in terms of impacts on stocks. I don't know that means one thing or the other for the pandemic from a medical perspective because that's a bit different.

That said, I probably agree with you (if this is what you're saying) that the pandemic in terms of its societal impact is nearing its end. At least I hope that is true.

It will probably become more and more common for companies to issue vaccine mandates as well as various counties, and as the vaccination rate goes up and likely a Delta vaccine is made available, it will probably be the case that COVID transitions from a primary concern to a much smaller one.

From a very practical standpoint, my life is more or less the same now as it was pre-pandemic except that I'm now permanently remote. My wife is also remote but will be going back at some point.

[waffle]

I don't see how you can say that, doug. Ending it's societal impact? Is your bomb shelter comfortable?

Until I see that curve have a nice nose dive, nope. Until enough people get vaccinated to eliminate the transmission/variance, nope. Until MORE PEOPLE accept the role of vaccines and the fact that the government is actually NOT a world spanning cabal that is trying to kill them? Nope

And you know YOU KNOW that it will be an issue in 2022 and 2024

So, no, it won't flitter away like dust on the wind in terms of it's "societal Impact"

But I sure as H*LL hope I am wrong

[dougthonus]

I don't see how you can say that, doug. Ending it's societal impact? Is your bomb shelter comfortable?

Until I see that curve have a nice nose dive, nope. Until enough people get vaccinated to eliminate the transmission/variance, nope. Until MORE PEOPLE accept the role of vaccines and the fact that the government is actually NOT a world spanning cabal that is trying to kill them? Nope

And you know YOU KNOW that it will be an issue in 2022 and 2024

So, no, it won't flitter away like dust on the wind in terms of it's "societal Impact"

But I sure as H*LL hope I am wrong

I think you have a mix of misunderstanding what I meant (and maybe poorly verbalized on my part) and then also us viewing semantically what it means to have societal impact.

So let me try to be more clear:

1: COVID has already changed the way society works permanently, and I don't think that change will become undone. I don't think it will bring about significant new change in the future. Most people I know have already adjusted to COVID in ways that it is now integrated into their lives and most of those integrations won't be undone when it ends.

2: The impact of the pandemic itself will lessen because I predict within a year that we will have a very high vaccination rate as both corporations and governments will make vaccine mandates more and more common as well as more effective Delta specific vaccines becoming available, but even as things stand now, virtually everything is open full time, and our peak was much lower than last year with considerably more restrictions.

3: The fact that people of different political ideologies will argue over this vs something else isn't societal impact to me. Those things exist of whatever the topic of the day is either way.

[Dresden]

The biggest impact right now seems to be:

1) The long term disruption to a lot of businesses- small businesses in particular. I'm thinking about the restaurants/bars, gyms, salons, etc. that permanently closed, or took a major hit during these last two years. That will be ongoing for some time. Ditto for all the employees of these places that lost jobs.

2) A lot of people in parts of this country, and around the world, are still getting sick and dying. It seems like every week there are new hotspots- lately I read that SE Asia is having big problems. That will go on, and we can't forget that Covid is still a matter of life and death for many people worldwide.

3) Hospitals are still dealing with the fallout from Covid. Many are still overloaded, particularly in poor areas/nations that did not have adequate facilities/doctors to begin with. Not to mention the many medical professionals that gave up due to the stress of the pandemic, or who are likely suffering from a kind of PTSD from the amount of death they saw, and long hours in dangerous conditions they were forced to work.

4). The social aspects of people being isolated for 1.5 years or so- this might be especially impacting children. I know people are resilient to some degree, but we may see in future studies that the pandemic did and will create a lot of psychological/developmental issues across the world.

[waffle]

yeah, "Societal Impact" might not have been your best choice. It being a talking point is, in fact, a societal impact, considering people are using that talking point to....you know...justify the overthrow of our way of government (based on WACHADOODLE LIES, but still) it pretty much seems like one to me.

The thing we don't know is how many TESTS (you know, people) does this virus need to 1) continue being a pain in the butt or 2) make a NEW BETTER VERSION of itself. Is that # greater than or equal to those who refuse to get vaccinated? Guess we'll find out!

I sure as heck feel a societal impact, but I am weak

[dougthonus]

The biggest impact right now seems to be:

1) The long term disruption to a lot of businesses- small businesses in particular. I'm thinking about the restaurants/bars, gyms, salons, etc. that permanently closed, or took a major hit during these last two years. That will be ongoing for some time. Ditto for all the employees of these places that lost jobs.

I'd be curious if more businesses are closing now or not. I think there was a massive change here, I'm just not sure if this is a continued direction, or something that has already happened largely. I've seen many, many places shut down (as I'm sure we all have), but it feels to me like things are opening up and many new places are opening, and the ones that made it (restaurants, bars, gyms etc) are now thriving and very busy in my area.

2) A lot of people in parts of this country, and around the world, are still getting sick and dying. It seems like every week there are new hotspots- lately I read that SE Asia is having big problems. That will go on, and we can't forget that Covid is still a matter of life and death for many people worldwide.

Yeah, I should say I was specifically talking about the US, but there are many areas where vaccines aren't readily available.

3) Hospitals are still dealing with the fallout from Covid. Many are still overloaded, particularly in poor areas/nations that did not have adequate facilities/doctors to begin with. Not to mention the many medical professionals that gave up due to the stress of the pandemic, or who are likely suffering from a kind of PTSD from the amount of death they saw, and long hours in dangerous conditions they were forced to work.

It doesn't seem, generally speaking, that hospital load is presently an issue in the US, and I don't expect it to become more of one over the next 6 months. I would expect it to rescind as our vaccination rate continues to rise and a larger and large percentage of the unvaccinated build natural immunities through exposure.

We definitely got hit with a big upswing in cases when everything opened up widely again after all the "you can do this if vaccinated" rules went up which really meant all the anti-vax people lied and so it has effectively been no rules.

4). The social aspects of people being isolated for 1.5 years or so- this might be especially impacting children. I know people are resilient to some degree, but we may see in future studies that the pandemic did and will create a lot of psychological/developmental issues across the world.

Will be interesting to see how this works out. I could see it going either way. It will definitely have AN impact though, but again, that impact is now there already. Schools are all generally open now to my knowledge.

[waffle]

but the impact being there NOW is still a societal impact, right?

Like global warming? The fact that it is still there is a societal impact?

This isn't a case of the known evil, right?

Seems to me?

EDIT - but I am not a smart man, so you can probably ignore me. I'll just whimper in the corner

[waffle]

if 1.5 years from now we are not thinking about the "societal Impact" of covid I will change my user name to....

yes

Societal Impact. And I will wear it proudly

[dice]

My last post on this thread:

According to a recent Wall Street survey Covid has dropped to 3rd place on their list of worries. I guess that must mean the pandemic is almost over. Wait, how would Wall Street know that?

are you suggesting that wall st. pulls the levers when it comes to COVID-19 transmission?

and you shouldn't need a wall st. survey to know that the impact of the virus on the stock market is not seen as a concern. all you'd have to do to know that is...follow the stock market. and after the initial sharp selloff the performance of the stock market has been largely divorced from the pandemic

friendly reminder to the conspiracy theorists: any conspiracy involving more than like 5 people is bound to come to light. and sooner rather than later. 'cause human beings are notoriously bad at keeping secrets

[dougthonus]

but the impact being there NOW is still a societal impact, right?

Like global warming? The fact that it is still there is a societal impact?

This isn't a case of the known evil, right?

Seems to me?

EDIT - but I am not a smart man, so you can probably ignore me. I'll just whimper in the corner

Seriously, are you okay?

I said I didn't explain myself clearly, re-explained, and you're still going off with four posts later ignoring everything I said complaining about semantics after clarification so you can have a 'gotcha' moment replying with no argument other than straight condescension and veiled insults. You're the bizarro-Almost Retired.

[waffle]

Because I take this seriously, Doug.

I have put quite a bit of thought into this and believe that MOST people are just considering what we are dealing with at the VERY surface level, and that is risky

[Almost Retired]

My last post on this thread:

According to a recent Wall Street survey Covid has dropped to 3rd place on their list of worries. I guess that must mean the pandemic is almost over. Wait, how would Wall Street know that?

"Wall Street Is Done With Covid: Pandemic No Longer Among Top 3 Risks For Market

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, OCT 11, 2021 - 07:20 PM
The covid scare is officially over.

According to the latest monthly survey of 600 global market participants conducted by Deutsche Bank, for the first time since June, the biggest perceived risk to markets is no longer covid. Instead the top three risks are i) higher inflation and bond yields, ii) central bank policy error and iii) strong growth failing to materialize or being very short lived (i.e. stagflation and/or recession). New covid variants that bypass vaccines has slumped from 1st place, which it occupied for the previous three months, to 4th place in October."

I think it's fair to say the market views COVID as a more or less stabilized situation in terms of impacts on stocks. I don't know that means one thing or the other for the pandemic from a medical perspective because that's a bit different.

That said, I probably agree with you (if this is what you're saying) that the pandemic in terms of its societal impact is nearing its end. At least I hope that is true.

It will probably become more and more common for companies to issue vaccine mandates as well as various counties, and as the vaccination rate goes up and likely a Delta vaccine is made available, it will probably be the case that COVID transitions from a primary concern to a much smaller one.

From a very practical standpoint, my life is more or less the same now as it was pre-pandemic except that I'm now permanently remote. My wife is also remote but will be going back at some point.

Well Doug, the post was meant to be satirical when viewed in its entirety. It was a final sign off on this thread for me. Lighten up dude. You work too many hours plus you got a family. Go bowling or something.

[Almost Retired]

My last post on this thread:

According to a recent Wall Street survey Covid has dropped to 3rd place on their list of worries. I guess that must mean the pandemic is almost over. Wait, how would Wall Street know that?

are you suggesting that wall st. pulls the levers when it comes to COVID-19 transmission?

and you shouldn't need a wall st. survey to know that the impact of the virus on the stock market is not seen as a concern. all you'd have to do to know that is...follow the stock market. and after the initial sharp selloff the performance of the stock market has been largely divorced from the pandemic

friendly reminder to the conspiracy theorists: any conspiracy involving more than like 5 people is bound to come to light. and sooner rather than later. 'cause human beings are notoriously bad at keeping secrets

Dice, it was meant to be satirical as my last post on this thread.

[Dresden]

As for the pandemic not having much effect anymore, from today's NYT's:

"As the world economy struggles to find its footing, the resurgence of the coronavirus and supply chain chokeholds threaten to hold back the global recovery’s momentum, a closely watched report warned on Tuesday.

The overall growth rate will remain near 6 percent this year, a historically high level after a recession, but the expansion reflects a vast divergence in the fortunes of rich and poor countries, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

Worldwide poverty, hunger and unmanageable debt are all on the upswing. Employment has fallen, especially for women, reversing many of the gains they made in recent years.

Uneven access to vaccines and health care is at the heart of the economic disparities. While booster shots are becoming available in some wealthier nations, a staggering 96 percent of people in low-income countries are still unvaccinated."