2021-22 ESPN Predicts 43-39, 8th in the West

[HoopsFanAZ]

50 wins?

1. CJ and Nurkic were out for an extended number of games.
2. Powell an in-season trade and will be there from the beginning.
3. Marginally better bench -- arguably the biggest weakness of the team is now, perhaps, not as bad.

So, I go with all 82 games, better health, Powell ready to go, and a bench that sucks less (or maybe doesn't suck) ...
and 50 games is in the ballpark for me.

As to the contenders in the West, Denver, Utah, and Phoenix look like teams that will win plenty of regular season games.
The Lakers and Clippers aren't "scary good." I won't be surprised if LBJ never wins another title. Memphis? Wasn't there yet and hasn't been in years and years. It's reasonable for any fan base to have great hopes for their team's off-season improvement. Golden State? Like the Lakers, Clippers (and Blazers) -- health is an issue.

Portland kept Powell when MANY people were pretty sure that wasn't happening ... especially if CJ wasn't traded or given the media noise about Lillard. It's not about overestimating this team or knowing any better than anyone else ... 50. Marginal improvement in 2 or 3 areas. The biggest variables are the coaching staff and health of the team.

[b33nine]

We haven't seen a Dame-centric team reach 50 wins yet. I'm not convinced this is the best team they've put around him up to this point, but it certainly could be. I can understand why they would be low on us again with the lower half of the western conference getting better.

I'll be happy to be pleasantly surprised if they do reach 50 wins though.

What are you talking about in the 2018-2019 season the Blazers got 53 wins Dame was the best player on that team by far. We didn't have LMA he had left a few years prior in free agency.

They were also one win short of 50 in the previous season, after having a very rough final stretch of games.

Haha whoops, I thought that 49 win season was the best one the blazers had pulled off since the Lamarcus days.

[GEE]

43w-39l, 4 games over .500 in a stacked WC. That is a BET that I could consider wagering, but 50... no friggin way. Not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying that until Simmons is moved to a different zip code (considering the speculation) and until we know what improvement a new coaching staff will bring (if any), I say it's waaaaaaay too early to put odds on the BLAZERS.

[Wizenheimer]

just for giggles, the history of Vegas over/under win total for Portland in the Dame/CJ era:

* 2015-16....odds = 26.5....Blazers win 44 = 17.5 over (feel good season = Olshey spending in off-season like a drunken idiot)

* 2016-17....odds = 46.5....Blazers win 41 = 5.5 under

* 2017-18....odds = 40.5....Blazers win 49 = 8.5 over

* 2018-19....odds = 42.5....Blazers win 53 = 10.5 over

* 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 35 = 10.5 under

* 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...)

a really wide variance. I didn't check to see if there was the same wide variance for other teams. I doubt it, but I'm not sure

anyway, Vegas underestimated Portland 3 times by an average 12 wins. Twice, Vegas overestimated Portland by an average of 8 wins. And one time Vegas essentially got it right, last season

it sure looks like Vegas adjusted to a bad guess the next season by increasing or decreasing over/under according to how far they were off the previous season

I do know that Vegas adjusts NBA over/under marks according to player injury histories. Portland's 3 tallest players, Nurkic, Zeller, and Nance all have extensive injury histories. So does Marquise Chriss by the way, assuming he's the one vet Portland adds. So, that may explain why Vegas is setting 43.5 as Portland's over/under this season. Which, by the way, is theoretically 44 wins. Last season, Portland's 42 wins would be the equivalent of 48 wins in an 82 game season
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another factor that Vegas calculates is schedule. Portland's schedule may be the most difficult in the NBA:

* "The Blazers face the toughest first 20 games of the season based on their opponents’ records last season"

* "This season, there are only three stretches – one each for the Grizzlies, Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers — where a team plays eight games in 12 nights. Last season, there were 36, with many of them overlapping".

* there are only two teams that have five sets of 5 games/7 nights: Portland and LAC; only one other team, the Spurs, have more than 3 sets (4)

* "The Hawks lead the league with 12 one-game trips on the schedule, followed by the Sixers (10) and Cleveland Cavaliers (10). The Blazers have just three, with the Pelicans, Spurs, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors having just five each".

-----------------------

* Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day/night before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back.

^Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day/night before.

Over the last three seasons, teams are 488-384 (0.560) in rest-advantage games, 324-200 (0.618) at home and 164-184 (0.471) on the road.

The Pistons have the biggest differential between their number of rest-advantage games and rest-disadvantage games. The Hawks (13 vs. 9), New Orleans Pelicans (11 vs. 7) and Indiana Pacers (14 vs. 11) also have differentials of three or more.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Spurs (9 vs. 13), Nuggets (9 vs. 12), Blazers (8 vs. 11), Charlotte Hornets (11 vs. 14), Minnesota Timberwolves (8 vs. 11) and Orlando Magic (9 vs. 12) have negative differentials of three or more.

---------------------------

* the first 20 game mark:

Only four of the 106 teams that have won fewer than seven of their first 20 games have gone on to reach the postseason. The last of those was the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets, who started 6-14, finished as the 6 seed in the East (at 44-38), and actually won a first round series.

On the other end of the spectrum, 92 percent of the 215 teams that have won at least 12 of their first 20 games have gone on to make the playoffs.

The Blazers will play those 20 games against opponents that had a cumulative winning percentage of 0.542 last season, the highest mark for any team’s first 20. Portland’s first 20 games include three against the Clippers, and two each against the Nuggets, Sixers and Phoenix Suns. They also have games against the Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.

In addition to having the toughest first 20 games in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage from last season, the Blazers are also tied (with New Orleans) for the most back-to-backs (5) in the first 20 games. They have 14 back-to-backs for the season, and six of the 14 are in a 31-day stretch from Oct. 31 to Nov. 30.

https://www.nba.com/news/how-rest-road-trips-and-other-factors-played-out-in-2021-22-schedule
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that seems to be a pretty daunting set of schedule circumstances and it probably goes a long way in explaining Portland's seemingly low over/under of 43.5

[Village Idiot]

just for giggles, the history of Vegas over/under win total for Portland in the Dame/CJ era:

* 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 34 = 11.5 under

* 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...)

I do know that Vegas adjusts NBA over/under marks according to player injury histories. Portland's 3 tallest players, Nurkic, Zeller, and Nance all have extensive injury histories. So does Marquise Chriss by the way, assuming he's the one vet Portland adds. So, that may explain why Vegas is setting 43.5 as Portland's over/under this season. Which, by the way, is theoretically 44 wins. Last season, Portland's 42 wins would be the equivalent of 48 wins in an 82 game season
***

That's a heck of an analysis. I wonder if the 2019-20 numbers are adjusted for what ended up being a 74 game season for us?

[Wizenheimer]

just for giggles, the history of Vegas over/under win total for Portland in the Dame/CJ era:

* 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 34 = 11.5 under

* 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...)

I do know that Vegas adjusts NBA over/under marks according to player injury histories. Portland's 3 tallest players, Nurkic, Zeller, and Nance all have extensive injury histories. So does Marquise Chriss by the way, assuming he's the one vet Portland adds. So, that may explain why Vegas is setting 43.5 as Portland's over/under this season. Which, by the way, is theoretically 44 wins. Last season, Portland's 42 wins would be the equivalent of 48 wins in an 82 game season
***

That's a heck of an analysis. I wonder if the 2019-20 numbers are adjusted for what ended up being a 74 game season for us?

probably not?

if you adjust using 74/82, it works out to a bit above 41 projected over/under, so it would have likely been 41.5. Still quite as ways above the 35 wins (I was one win low in my list above)

[HoopsFanAZ]

Every time I see the Blazers with an easier start to the season, it’s all about taking care of business and maximizing the should-win-games. When I see a brutal schedule, especially on the road, it’s about the team having to play with grit and coming together. I prefer the latter. There’s no room for easing into the season, and there never should be.

[Norm2953]

Apples and oranges...

Talk of how many games this team in the regular season does not translate to post season success
as we saw last spring when a more or less healthy Portland team lost to the Nuggets who played
without both their starting guards. It's all about building a team that can beat another playoff
caliber team in a 7 game series. It's about the team shutting down another team's first option
on defense for we've seen repeatedly the other teams selling out on shutting down Dame and
making the other guys beat them. Playoff success is what is going to satisfy Dame, not building
a team that won the NW division regular season.

[DusterBuster]

Blazers are always ranked lower than they end up. I don't think they end lower than 6th.

[JasonStern]

Blazers are always ranked lower than they end up. I don't think they end lower than 6th.

Totally depends on health. Nurkić misses games every season, and Lorry Zeller isn't the ironman Kanter is.

[Case2012]

Regular season doesn’t matter. We’ll make the playoffs, just like we always do… And we’ll lose in the first round, just like we always do.

I’m retracting this statement, partially. After watching Billups and this roster I think we could make the play in but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t make it to the playoffs.

[GEE]

Blazers are always ranked lower than they end up. I don't think they end lower than 6th.

Totally depends on health. Nurkić misses games every season, and Lorry Zeller isn't the ironman Kanter is.

https://images.app.goo.gl/Lmt8TwfxXSozwuQV8

HEY... WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? I'M A TOUGH GUY!

[GEE]

Okay, Pre-Season is over and the next one counts. 8th in the West, TODAY, feels about right. I also agree with those who expect very little from this roster come playoff time... if they make it. So I feel that with the sure turbulence to come from Dame, knowing this team has little to no chance of bringing a chip to Portland, I will make two predictions:

First Prediction: TODAY
I already said, ESPN's sounds about right.

Second Prediction: After Dame quietly gets asked if he would like to be traded to PHILLY, and does!
+10 WINS = 53-29, 4th in the West
CJ / ANT / DSJ
Powell / Little
ROCO / GB / cj
Simmons / Nance Jr
Nurkic / Chriss / Love / Zeller

[Wizenheimer]

Okay, Pre-Season is over and the next one counts. 8th in the West, TODAY, feels about right. I also agree with those who expect very little from this roster come playoff time... if they make it. So I feel that with the sure turbulence to come from Dame, knowing this team has little to no chance of bringing a chip to Portland, I will make two predictions:

First Prediction: TODAY
I already said, ESPN's sounds about right.

Second Prediction: After Dame quietly gets asked if he would like to be traded to PHILLY, and does!
+10 WINS = 53-29, 4th in the West
CJ / ANT / DSJ
Powell / Little
ROCO / GB / cj
Simmons / Nance Jr
Nurkic / Chriss / Love / Zeller

I am done being a blazer fan if Dame is traded, by Olshey, and CJ is still a Blazer. screw that. Portland needs new ownership that will clean house in management...Seattle ain't it

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Okay, Pre-Season is over and the next one counts. 8th in the West, TODAY, feels about right. I also agree with those who expect very little from this roster come playoff time... if they make it. So I feel that with the sure turbulence to come from Dame, knowing this team has little to no chance of bringing a chip to Portland, I will make two predictions:

First Prediction: TODAY
I already said, ESPN's sounds about right.

Second Prediction: After Dame quietly gets asked if he would like to be traded to PHILLY, and does!
+10 WINS = 53-29, 4th in the West
CJ / ANT / DSJ
Powell / Little
ROCO / GB / cj
Simmons / Nance Jr
Nurkic / Chriss / Love / Zeller

I am done being a blazer fan if Dame is traded, by Olshey, and CJ is still a Blazer. screw that. Portland needs new ownership that will clean house in management...Seattle ain't it

I care less about what we do with CJ in that scenario but 100% if Olshey is allowed to trade Dame then I am out of here. I'm not sure how interested upper management is but if they allow that to happen then they don't deserve their fans anymore, letting the guy who ruined Dames career to hang around is just a huge insult to the fans.

[Wizenheimer]

Okay, Pre-Season is over and the next one counts. 8th in the West, TODAY, feels about right. I also agree with those who expect very little from this roster come playoff time... if they make it. So I feel that with the sure turbulence to come from Dame, knowing this team has little to no chance of bringing a chip to Portland, I will make two predictions:

First Prediction: TODAY
I already said, ESPN's sounds about right.

Second Prediction: After Dame quietly gets asked if he would like to be traded to PHILLY, and does!
+10 WINS = 53-29, 4th in the West
CJ / ANT / DSJ
Powell / Little
ROCO / GB / cj
Simmons / Nance Jr
Nurkic / Chriss / Love / Zeller

I am done being a blazer fan if Dame is traded, by Olshey, and CJ is still a Blazer. screw that. Portland needs new ownership that will clean house in management...Seattle ain't it

I care less about what we do with CJ in that scenario but 100% if Olshey is allowed to trade Dame then I am out of here. I'm not sure how interested upper management is but if they allow that to happen then they don't deserve their fans anymore, letting the guy who ruined Dames career to hang around is just a huge insult to the fans.

my assumption is that if Olshey is allowed to trade Dame he'll have every intention of 'building' a team around CJ; MeJ will lead the league in shots, usage, and dribbling. That itself would be reason not to watch (by the way, for those people expecting Billups to curb CJ's MeJ moments: in the 2 pre-season games he played with Dame, he played 5 fewer minutes and had 5 more shots)

trading Dame should immediately be followed by trading every other player over 24-25 and starting a full rebuild. Trade for as many draft picks as they can, while becoming a lottery team, which would give them further shots at some high draft picks (I'm assuming that if Dame demands a trade it will be at the end of this season, if not before. And that will result in RoCo and Nurkic signing elsewhere; there would be no good reason for keeping CJ and Powell)

Olshey should have been fired before Stotts, and they both should have been fired immediately after the Blazers got swept by the Pelicans. Better yet, Olshey should have been fired at the end of the 2016-17 season when it was so damn obvious what a disaster his 2016 spending spree was; 340 million dollars for role players and only one legitimate starter. That's right...340 million

That would have meant he wouldn't have been around to screw up the 2017 draft as bad as he did. Blazers could have had Donovan Mitchell & Thomas Bryant; or Bam Adebayo & Dillon Brooks; or John Collins, OG Anunoby/Jarret Allen, & Dillon Brooks. Instead they got 2 seasons of Zach and a season of Caleb Swanigan. Olshey couldn't even arrange a sign and trade for Zach giving Portland a TPE

[JasonStern]

Blazers are always ranked lower than they end up. I don't think they end lower than 6th.

Totally depends on health. Nurkić misses games every season, and Lorry Zeller isn't the ironman Kanter is.

https://images.app.goo.gl/Lmt8TwfxXSozwuQV8

HEY... WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? I'M A TOUGH GUY!

Nobody is bashing Maury Zeller's mental fortitude. But it's fair to say that he has been fairly injury prone over his career, as has Nurkić. And as such, there's a reasonable chance one or both of them might miss an extended period of time, causing Nance or Covington to have to play small ball center.

[dunlop212]

I don't share the group optimism. I see them getting off to a very rocky start, maybe pickup Simmons early in the season, who decides he doesn't like it here and plays like garbage. Dame gets moved at the deadline. He doesn't push for it, too classy a guy for that, but PDX feels badly about the position they have put him in and send him to Boston. The good news is that the 2022 pick is top 14 protected, the bad news is that they are now building around Ben Simmons.