[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan

[PistolPeteJR]

I see only 2009 Lebron as being on the same tier as Jordan's 3-year peak from 1989-1991. But considering this season is sandwiched between 2008 and 2010 which won't even make the list or even come close, I have less confidence in this version of Lebron. Jordan's 1988, 1992 and 1993 are also near flawless (a smidge below the 1989-1991 stretch) and I don't see any Lebron season at that level not even 2012. For instance comparing Lebron's playoff stats in 2012 playoffs vs. Jordan's weaker immortal six playoffs 1992 per 75 possessions:

Lebron 2012: 29.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg (2.2 o), 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.7 bpg on 57.6 %TS (+ 4.9 rTS) with 3.4 topg
Jordan 1992: 33.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg (1.7 o), 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.7 bpg on 57.1 %TS (+4.0 rTS) with 3.5 topg

Jordan's weakest of his top 6 seasons still comes out comfortably ahead of 2012 Lebron and MJ also had a better regular season.

Generally when comparing their best seasons we see something in the neighbourgood of 5 PPG more, same efficiency, comparable creation and lower turnovers for Jordan. You'd have to value Lebron's defense at least an entire tier or even two of ahead of Jordan's to see their peaks as comparable and I don't see that at all. Lebron will do comparatively better than Bird or Duncan in a comparison against Jordan simply because of more quality seasons bringing up the rear but in terms of peak or near peak quality he can't match MJ. To be frank I don't think anyone can. Kareem gives Jordan the best run for his money in my book.

Why completely leave defense out of the equation here?

[70sFan]

VanWest you can ignore the following post, because I know you aren't fond of one-number metrics. However, for those who would lend their ears.

Spoiler:

There has been a lot of discussion about 2009 Lebron having an outlier playoffs due to small sample size. I think there has to be discussion about 2009 Lebron's season as a whole being outlier, because it would seem it trumps the best that Jordan ever had to offer.

If we look at their RS and or full-season metrics, 09 Lebron looks better on a rate basis than MJ's best seasons in the following respective metrics:

By RAPTOR (Since 77)

09 Lebron: 12.6 (#1 All-Time)

91 MJ: 12.3

Estimated Impact for RS(1952-2013)

09 Lebron: 10.6

88 MJ: 8.9

PIPM (Since 77)

09 Lebron: 9.83 (#1 All-time)

88 MJ: 8.58

TWPR for RS (Since 78)

09 Lebron: 89.78 (#1 All-Time)

88 MJ: 89.30

BPM (Since 74)

09 Lebron: 13.2 (#1 All-Time)

88 MJ: 13

I didn't bother to put the PS, as the gap between Lebron and MJ grows in the PS in favor of Lebron, and people are saying they are weary of 2009 Lebron's play being outlier. By including the RS and/or full season data here, I am showing that Lebron was historic unlike anyone we have ever seen, even outside of his PS play.

Your first question might be why is 1988 MJ's campaign coming out the best in some of these metrics, instead of 91 and it is very possible that 88 MJ's RS was the best of his career...it was his defensive peak after all. But furthermore, it reinforces the idea that MJ's regular season and PS peaks didn't necessarily happen in the same year (91 had a lower defensive motor).

This is counter to Lebron who put it altogether in 2009 and authored his most valuable RS and PS in the very same year, giving him a persuasive argument for having a better season than MJ ever did because of how well everything came together for him. Lebron wasn't just hot for a "couple weeks," he was insane for the whole year to the point that these metrics believe they have not seen anything like him.

Btw, I see people mentioning 2010 Lebron as a disappointment, and while I think 2010 is a worse player than 2009 Lebron, I also feel as if his elbow injury hampered his performance (along with the Delonte West situation). Someone actually did a thread, where when Lebron had more days of rest, he seemed to perform better. In 2011, he clearly was notably heavier and didn't beat guys off the dribble. To me 2009 Lebron is a different player from any other version of Lebron (further backed by these metrics that think he was more valuable). But to each their own.

Overall, 2009 Lebron's motor, focus on offensive rebounding, and scoring aggression were higher than any other points in his career.

Seeing as you quoted me directly I will respond.

Wrt all-in-ones, I believe that eventually NBA will release enough game film that we can calculate line up data for all the missing years. I also believe tech and programming will advance to the point where we'll be able to retrofit tracking to these old games, or maybe people will just track things (deflections, charges, shot contests, DFG%, etc.) the old fashioned way, and we'll be able to get young Lebron and MJ's actual RAPTOR for the years in question. At that point, I will be happy to accept your all-in-one argument. Until then, as we've discussed, I'm out on non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated metrics as any kind of real arbiter.

RE 09, I think there's a good case to be made it was the best statistical regular season performance ever. Certainly Wilt has a good case as well as 88 MJ and some others. And if you only look at the stats, Lebron's 09 playoffs was even better. So I completely get how you guys might say it's the GOAT season. Except, as I mentioned in the previous Lebron thread, Lebron himself acknowledges that he was an incomplete player pre-2012, and credits Dwane Casey for exposing that (Thibs and Pop deserve a shout out as well imo) and forcing him to have to improve the obvious deficiencies in his game (mainly shooting and post play) in order to become a complete player who didn't get perennially exposed in the playoffs.

In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias required - something like an Ostrich effect - in order to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

I suppose one could counter with "you can only play who's in front of you" and there is some truth to that. But I can't just pretend like those issues didn't exist just because Lebron got a little lucky with circumstance. I am happy to acknowledge that he was awesome though. But if we're going to just blatantly ignore player flaws then we might as well start calling 04 KG or 94 DRob the GOAT. They have pretty solid statistical cases as well.

Old film wasn't always kept, and not every game was televised during Jordan's time in Chicago. You can track available film, but you're never going to see the complete set.

You'd be surprised how much old footage NBA has in their archives.

[sansterre]

RE 09, I think there's a good case to be made it was the best statistical regular season performance ever. Certainly Wilt has a good case as well as 88 MJ and some others. And if you only look at the stats, Lebron's 09 playoffs was even better. So I completely get how you guys might say it's the GOAT statistical season. Except, as I mentioned in the previous Lebron thread, Lebron himself acknowledges that he was an incomplete player pre-2012, and credits Dwane Casey for exposing that (Thibs and Pop deserve a shout out as well imo) and forcing him to have to improve the obvious deficiencies in his game (mainly shooting and post play) in order to become a complete player who didn't get perennially exposed in the playoffs.

In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias - something like an Ostrich effect - required to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

I suppose one could counter with "you can only play who's in front of you" and there is some truth to that. But I can't just pretend like those issues didn't exist just because Lebron got a little lucky with circumstance. I am happy to acknowledge that he was particularly awesome in 09 but if we're going to just blatantly ignore player flaws then we might as well start calling 04 KG or 94 DRob the GOAT. They have pretty solid statistical cases as well.

I think this is a very interesting point.

Let us imagine that there is a player with one GOAT-level skillset (let's say "getting to the rim and finishing in traffic"). But he has a fairly unpolished second skillset (shooting and post scoring). As a result this player scores at X rate and Y efficiency.

Is a different player with less strengths (and less weaknesses) that also shoots at X rate and Y efficiency better? Worse? Or the same overall, because their scoring was effectively the same?

It's a neat question.

For me, I'd consider them comparable because the results were the same.

If I were looking at LeBron in '07 and '08, I think your assessment would be pretty appropriate. His regular season success wasn't sustainable in the playoffs, as defenses were able to key on his weaknesses. So those were cases of a GOAT skill and a C- skill combining for a more disappointing package against good defense than you'd think based on the regular season.

But in 2009 and 2010 that pattern doesn't exist. In both postseasons he scored as well or better than in the regular season. And this is obviously possible even if he became better rounded later in his career. So I, personally, don't know if you can hold him responsible for a flaw that clearly didn't hurt his performance.

From a context point of view, I think there's an argument to scale him down slightly for luck-adjustment (as one might JR Smith's 2017 playoffs). From a "the results are what matter" point of view . . . it's hard to find much fault with the 2009 season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

VanWest you can ignore the following post, because I know you aren't fond of one-number metrics. However, for those who would lend their ears.

Spoiler:

There has been a lot of discussion about 2009 Lebron having an outlier playoffs due to small sample size. I think there has to be discussion about 2009 Lebron's season as a whole being outlier, because it would seem it trumps the best that Jordan ever had to offer.

If we look at their RS and or full-season metrics, 09 Lebron looks better on a rate basis than MJ's best seasons in the following respective metrics:

By RAPTOR (Since 77)

09 Lebron: 12.6 (#1 All-Time)

91 MJ: 12.3

Estimated Impact for RS(1952-2013)

09 Lebron: 10.6

88 MJ: 8.9

PIPM (Since 77)

09 Lebron: 9.83 (#1 All-time)

88 MJ: 8.58

TWPR for RS (Since 78)

09 Lebron: 89.78 (#1 All-Time)

88 MJ: 89.30

BPM (Since 74)

09 Lebron: 13.2 (#1 All-Time)

88 MJ: 13

I didn't bother to put the PS, as the gap between Lebron and MJ grows in the PS in favor of Lebron, and people are saying they are weary of 2009 Lebron's play being outlier. By including the RS and/or full season data here, I am showing that Lebron was historic unlike anyone we have ever seen, even outside of his PS play.

Your first question might be why is 1988 MJ's campaign coming out the best in some of these metrics, instead of 91 and it is very possible that 88 MJ's RS was the best of his career...it was his defensive peak after all. But furthermore, it reinforces the idea that MJ's regular season and PS peaks didn't necessarily happen in the same year (91 had a lower defensive motor).

This is counter to Lebron who put it altogether in 2009 and authored his most valuable RS and PS in the very same year, giving him a persuasive argument for having a better season than MJ ever did because of how well everything came together for him. Lebron wasn't just hot for a "couple weeks," he was insane for the whole year to the point that these metrics believe they have not seen anything like him.

Btw, I see people mentioning 2010 Lebron as a disappointment, and while I think 2010 is a worse player than 2009 Lebron, I also feel as if his elbow injury hampered his performance (along with the Delonte West situation). Someone actually did a thread, where when Lebron had more days of rest, he seemed to perform better. In 2011, he clearly was notably heavier and didn't beat guys off the dribble. To me 2009 Lebron is a different player from any other version of Lebron (further backed by these metrics that think he was more valuable). But to each their own.

Overall, 2009 Lebron's motor, focus on offensive rebounding, and scoring aggression were higher than any other points in his career.

Seeing as you quoted me directly I will respond.

Wrt all-in-ones, I believe that eventually NBA will release enough game film that we can calculate line up data for all the missing years. I also believe tech and programming will advance to the point where we'll be able to retrofit tracking to these old games, or maybe people will just track things (deflections, charges, shot contests, DFG%, etc.) the old fashioned way and we'll be able to get young Lebron and MJ's actual RAPTOR for the years in question. At that point, I will be happy to accept your all-in-one argument. Until then, as we've discussed, I'm out on non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated metrics as any kind of real arbiter.

RE 09, I think there's a good case to be made it was the best statistical regular season performance ever. Certainly Wilt has a good case as well as 88 MJ and some others. And if you only look at the stats, Lebron's 09 playoffs was even better. So I completely get how you guys might say it's the GOAT statistical season. Except, as I mentioned in the previous Lebron thread, Lebron himself acknowledges that he was an incomplete player pre-2012, and credits Dwane Casey for exposing that (Thibs and Pop deserve a shout out as well imo) and forcing him to have to improve the obvious deficiencies in his game (mainly shooting and post play) in order to become a complete player who didn't get perennially exposed in the playoffs.

In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias - something like an Ostrich effect - required to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

I suppose one could counter with "you can only play who's in front of you" and there is some truth to that. But I can't just pretend like those issues didn't exist just because Lebron got a little lucky with circumstance. I am happy to acknowledge that he was particularly awesome in 09 but if we're going to just blatantly ignore player flaws then we might as well start calling 04 KG or 94 DRob the GOAT. They have pretty solid statistical cases as well.

It isn't cognitive bias, when the analytical tools we have in front of us say it is the greatest season ever. It is backed by evidence. If anything, I believe it would be you deluding yourself because the numbers don't support you. Furthermore, I already mentioned how Lebron's playstyle was notably different from his other iterations.

Also plenty of people have mentioned how 04 KG and 94 DRob are some of the greatest RS ever, but the issue is that their PS play lead to a significant drop. With 09 Lebron he raised his game, and still trumps Jordan statistically when looking at PS play. This is not an apples to apples comparison.

[Djoker]

‪1. '09 LeBron — the impact numbers in both RS and PS and the carry job of a that cast to 66 wins and an 8+ SRS are unrivaled. I think this is the peak season even though for concentrated amounts of time, I believe 2016-2017 LeBron is a better player‬
2. ‘91 Jordan- Contention for GOAT season. Everything just came together between athleticism, playmaking, smoothness of that turnaround fade, everything
3. ‪ ‘12 LeBron — high motor impact throughout RS and PS and incredibly robust overall game ‬
4. ‘13 LeBron — same as ‘12, 27 game win streak, playoffs impact metrics not as good, but much of that has to do with playing with an injured Wade who wasn’t very good in the playoffs.
5. 16 LeBron — Regular season not as good but highest possible level vs. 73 win team. Unbelievably low FTr even though shot more at the rim than in any other season. More calls there and season moves up. ‬
6. 90 Jordan —Just under his best season
7. ‘89 Jordan - Close to 1990 Jordan
8. ‪‘17 LeBron — offensive mastery of game in playoffs, and only literally the GOAT team could stop him from winning a title. I think this is his offensive peak but regular season not as good. Cannot see a team losing a title unless it’s a juggernaut of juggernaut team in the Finals and even then, he was +6 on court through 4 games
9. ‘88 Jordan — not as polished as later versions
10. ‪‘10 LeBron — Don’t feel right placing him this far down since metrics close to 2009 metrics but playoffs not as subli‬me but did have injury. There’s a very good argument this is a top 3 season for James, but there are so many great seasons between these two.
11. ‘‪20 LeBron — highly underrated season. He led an unconventional team playing against the prevailing success tactics of the era to a title. When paired with a player playing really well (i.e., AD), Lebron showed how dominant his team can be. That Lakers team had four 30+ point leads innthe 4th quarter of playoff games, six games up 27+ in the fourth...‬
12. ‘92 Jordan — close to ‘93 Jordan

You insinuated that my list is biased and one-sided but then you proceeded to give four of the top five spots to Lebron.

I justified my list with per 75 numbers in which peak Jordan from 1988-1993 basically crushes any non-2009 Lebron. Years like 2012, 2013 and 2016 are nowhere near peak Jordan offensively. That's just the truth. 2009 is the only one that is up there and 2018 comes close but the latter is anywhere between mediocre and terrible on defense plus Lebron's regular season was clearly a step below GOAT level in 2018. And regular season play still counts for something even for me and I emphasize playoffs. Anyways...

Per 75 Playoff Numbers:

1988 Jordan: 32.9/6.4/4.3 on +6.0 rTS with 3.0 to (10 games)
1989 Jordan: 32.6/6.5/7.1 on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 to (17 games)
1990 Jordan: 33.8/6.6/6.3 on +5.5 rTS with 3.2 to (16 games)
1991 Jordan: 31.4/6.4/8.4 on +6.6 rTS with 2.8 to (17 games)
1992 Jordan: 33.4/6.0/5.6 on +4.0 rTS with 3.5 to (22 games)
1993 Jordan: 34.6/6.7/5.9 on +1.7 rTS with 2.3 to (19 games)

2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)

On average about 5 more points per 75, comparable efficiency, comparable creation and lower turnovers. That's easily a tier ahead offensively for Jordan over Lebron.

You'd have to value 2012/2013/2016 Lebron at elite big men level defensively (someone actually said this; I'm sorry but it's funny ) to put him over 1989 and 1990 Jordan. I value peak Lebron as slightly better defensively but on the same tier. However even if Lebron was a tier above he'd still be behind Jordan overall because perimeter players don't impact the game defensively nearly as much as they do offensively. Based on Ben Taylor's modelling IIRC, peak Lebron's defense is 1 points/100 better than peak Jordan's defense. That's literally nothing compared to Jordan's huge edges in the four offensive categories driven by his scoring.

I have one question for everyone in general? What is this historical PIPM data based on? We don't have play-by-play/plus minus prior to 1997 so this is all boxscore based? Because I've seen people use it as substitute for RAPM which I think isn't right. The way I see it we simply don't have plus-minus data for Jordan's peak years and it is what it is.

[falcolombardi]

i am looking at somethingh like this (the rankings between tiers are mostly placeholders)

2009, 1991,1990, 2012

(as my tier 1 of absurd regular season + incredible playoffs)

my tier 2 would absurd playoffs + strong reg season

1993, 2016

my tier 3 would be incredible in seasom + strong playoffs

2013, 1988, 1989, 1992, 2010

tier 4: great seasons with some big flaw like defensive effort, a weak play off series or somethingh else that gives me doubt, or where they were very complete but had clearly dropped off physically from their primes (97 jordan or 20 lebron)

2017 lebron would be my last pick here, but 20,18,14 lebron or 96 and 97 jordan have clear arguments too


this is not a definirse ranking but i am thinking of somethingh like this, i try to value playoffs a bit more strongly than regular season hence 2010 being below the other lebron prime seasons, and i try to use what actually happened and not a hypothetical (which is what the "fluke" argument feels like to me)

if anyone finds a big flaw withim my logic here i would appreciate it, i have yo look deep into 88-89 and 96-97 jordan yet

[VanWest82]

If I were looking at LeBron in '07 and '08, I think your assessment would be pretty appropriate. His regular season success wasn't sustainable in the playoffs, as defenses were able to key on his weaknesses. So those were cases of a GOAT skill and a C- skill combining for a more disappointing package against good defense than you'd think based on the regular season.

But in 2009 and 2010 that pattern doesn't exist. In both postseasons he scored as well or better than in the regular season. And this is obviously possible even if he became better rounded later in his career. So I, personally, don't know if you can hold him responsible for a flaw that clearly didn't hurt his performance.

Leaving aside 09 for a second as I've already addressed that pretty extensively...

In 2010 the pattern did exist vs. Celtics who played Lebron mostly straight up for the first three games of the series and then started bringing over an extra defender to cut off driving lanes games 4-6. They gave him jumpers and he went 7-18 with 7 turnovers in game 4, 3-14 in game 5, and 8-21 with 9 turnovers in game 6. And his teammates sucked, and his elbow was hurting, and his mom was sleeping with teammates. Definitely some legit excuses there but unless you tell me all those things coincided exactly with Celtics scheme adjustments I'm going to assume the main issue was Celtics scheme adjustments.

And then there are the elephants in the room: 2011 Finals and Lebron specifically addressing this issue by admitting he was an incomplete player pre-2012 and that Dwane Casey's defense (among others) forced him to have to come to grips with that.

[VanWest82]

It isn't cognitive bias, when the analytical tools we have in front of us say it is the greatest season ever. It is backed by evidence. If anything, I believe it would be you deluding yourself because the numbers don't support you. Furthermore, I already mentioned how Lebron's playstyle was notably different from his other iterations.

Also plenty of people have mentioned how 04 KG and 94 DRob are some of the greatest RS ever, but the issue is that their PS play lead to a significant drop. With 09 Lebron he raised his game, and still trumps Jordan statistically when looking at PS play. This is not an apples to apples comparison.

As much as I don't like the all-in-ones, I'm not really even disputing the analytics (much). That's not my argument. Again, yes Lebron has a great statistical case for 09, but we know those playoffs were a bit of a mirage given the same issues that popped up in 07 and 08 reared their heads in 10 and 11. Lebron has addressed this and admitted he had some major deficiencies pre-2012. You can choose to pretend like that wasn't the case in 09 just because Stan et. al decided to let him get his. I can't ignore that.

2012 and 2013 Lebron was a superior player because he was much more resilient vs. defenses geared specifically to stop him even though he might not have been the athletic marvel he was in 09. His jumper was better. He could run offense out of the pinch post. I made a similar case for 91 MJ over 88 MJ earlier in the thread. Stats don't tell you everything.

[LukaTheGOAT]

It isn't cognitive bias, when the analytical tools we have in front of us say it is the greatest season ever. It is backed by evidence. If anything, I believe it would be you deluding yourself because the numbers don't support you. Furthermore, I already mentioned how Lebron's playstyle was notably different from his other iterations.

Also plenty of people have mentioned how 04 KG and 94 DRob are some of the greatest RS ever, but the issue is that their PS play lead to a significant drop. With 09 Lebron he raised his game, and still trumps Jordan statistically when looking at PS play. This is not an apples to apples comparison.

As much as I don't like the all-in-ones, I'm not really even disputing the analytics (much). That's not my argument. Again, yes Lebron has a great statistical case for 09, but we know those playoffs were a bit of a mirage given the same issues that popped up in 07 and 08 reared their heads in 10 and 11. Lebron has addressed this and admitted he had some major deficiencies pre-2012. You can choose to pretend like that wasn't the case in 09 just because Stan et. al decided to let him get his. I can't ignore that.

2012 and 2013 Lebron was a superior player because he was much more resilient vs. defenses geared specifically to stop him even though he might not have been the athletic marvel he was in 09. I made the exact same case for 91 MJ over 88 MJ earlier in the thread. Stats don't tell you everything.

You can interpret things however you want, but you keep missing my point that 09 Lebron is a different version of Lebron compared to his 08 and 10 counterparts. He for one was healthier come PS time (2010 had an elbow injury), which plays a big part in production. But his motor on offense and defense, focus on offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls, were simply on a higher level than any other year. This was also clearly his athletic peak. And if people are interpreting the question as "best seasons," instead of "best players" (which seems to be how Odinn explained it to me before), then it gives further credence to the idea that 09 had a better season than anything MJ put out.

[VanWest82]

You can interpret things however you want, but you keep missing my point that 09 Lebron is a different version of Lebron compared to his 08 and 10 counterparts. He for one was healthier, which plays a big part in production. But his motor on offense and defense, focus on offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls, were simply on a higher level than any other year. And if people are interpreting the question as "best seasons," instead of "best players" (which seems to be how Odinn explained it to me before), then it gives further credence to the idea that 09 had a better season than anything MJ put out.

To the bolded, I'm not sure he was much different in 2010 than 2009. It was close. I thought his effort was a little better in 09, especially defensively. Fundamentally he was the same player. He just faced a better team with a better scheme in 2010.

I'd argue player quality has to be part of the calculus for best season. Out of curiosity, which of Wilt's seasons would you rank higher 62 or 67? I'd guess that based on the criteria you've laid out you'd value 62 to be consistent. I'd choose 67 because even though Wlit wasn't the same guy anymore he was a more complete player and thus better able to overcome adversity which is exactly how it played out just as it did for Lebron in 2012 and 2013.

[PistolPeteJR]

I find it very intriguing how certain posters want to argue that 2009 was an outlier to the point where LeBron's case should be somewhat discredited as a result, but those same posters don't want to point at the 2011 Finals to be an outlier too, because LeBron's case in the ATG rankings would be fortified as a result.

[HeartBreakKid]

I find it very intriguing how certain posters want to argue that 2009 was an outlier to the point where LeBron's case should be somewhat discredited as a result, but those same posters don't want to point at the 2011 Finals to be an outlier too, because LeBron's case in the ATG rankings would be fortified as a result.

Funny thing is, with Jordan all context is perfectly applied. May as well pretend 1995 never happened.

[ice9]

I find it very intriguing how certain posters want to argue that 2009 was an outlier to the point where LeBron's case should be somewhat discredited as a result, but those same posters don't want to point at the 2011 Finals to be an outlier too, because LeBron's case in the ATG rankings would be fortified as a result.

It doesn't seem like anyone is trying to discredit it, just trying to apply context beyond the stats. If this project was simply a matter of ranking seasons in order of the best one number statistical seasons, there would be no point to the project, as we could just look strictly at the data. Knowing what we know about how he performed +/- 2 seasons, this is certainly a outlier performance that cant be explained away simply by "better motor." He still had weaknesses in his game, and wasnt as well rounded as his later iterations. Extreme example, but with someone like Michael Adams, when we see an outlier season we know he didnt just magically get better for one year than regress, we look to see what circumstances changed.

Ignoring Jordan, just evaluating LeBron, I think he was certainly a better player in seasons like 16 (which I think was his best year), 13, 12 than 09, even if his stats weren't quite as monstrous. He was engaged defensively those seasons, and by 16 he was a much more complete offensive player.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[LukaTheGOAT]

You can interpret things however you want, but you keep missing my point that 09 Lebron is a different version of Lebron compared to his 08 and 10 counterparts. He for one was healthier, which plays a big part in production. But his motor on offense and defense, focus on offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls, were simply on a higher level than any other year. And if people are interpreting the question as "best seasons," instead of "best players" (which seems to be how Odinn explained it to me before), then it gives further credence to the idea that 09 had a better season than anything MJ put out.

To the bolded, I'm not sure he was much different in 2010 than 2009. It was close. I thought his effort was a little better in 09, especially defensively. Fundamentally he was the same player. He just faced a better team with a better scheme in 2010.

I'd argue player quality has to be part of the calculus for best season. Out of curiosity, which of Wilt's seasons would you rank higher 62 or 67? I'd guess that based on the criteria you've laid out you'd value 62 to be consistent. I'd choose 67 because even though Wlit wasn't the same guy anymore he was a more complete player and thus better able to overcome adversity which is exactly how it played out just as it did for Lebron in 2012 and 2013.

Wrong. I would prefer 67 Wilt over 62 Wilt because he was better. Besides him being more committed to getting teammates involved, and closing in on his defensive peak, there is plenty of persuasive evidence that was his peak.

Backpicks BPM (RS)

67 Wilt-8 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-5

Backpicks BPM (PS)

67 Wilt-8.1 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.3

Estimated Impact (RS)
67 Wilt-7.5 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.4

Estimated Impact (PS)
67 Wilt-6.7 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-3.3

Under further scrutiny, your analogy does not hold up. Similar to 09 Lebron, Wilt looks to have peaked in the RS and PS in 67. And furthermore, it is considered on this board that 67 Wilt is his peak.

[VanWest82]

Wrong. I would prefer 67 Wilt over 62 Wilt because he was better. Besides him being more committed to getting teammates involved, and closing in on his defensive peak, there is plenty of persuasive evidence that was his peak.

Spoiler:

Backpicks BPM (RS)

67 Wilt-8 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-5

Backpicks BPM (PS)

67 Wilt-8.1 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.3

Estimated Impact (RS)
67 Wilt-7.5 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.4

Estimated Impact (PS)
67 Wilt-6.7 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-3.3

Under further scrutiny, your analogy does not hold up. Similar to 09 Lebron, Wilt looks to have peaked in the RS and PS in 67. And furthermore, it is considered on this board that 67 Wilt is his peak.

Ok bad analogy. I didn't look and so didn't realize the numbers were that lopsided. I suspect his raw stats were that lopsized in the other direction. I think you probably get what I'm saying though. There are plenty of examples of guys where their statistical peak didn't match their actual peak for reasons like I I've been presenting (e.g. skill development, covering for a weakness, etc).

[LukaTheGOAT]

Wrong. I would prefer 67 Wilt over 62 Wilt because he was better. Besides him being more committed to getting teammates involved, and closing in on his defensive peak, there is plenty of persuasive evidence that was his peak.

Spoiler:

Backpicks BPM (RS)

67 Wilt-8 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-5

Backpicks BPM (PS)

67 Wilt-8.1 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.3

Estimated Impact (RS)
67 Wilt-7.5 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.4

Estimated Impact (PS)
67 Wilt-6.7 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-3.3

Under further scrutiny, your analogy does not hold up. Similar to 09 Lebron, Wilt looks to have peaked in the RS and PS in 67. And furthermore, it is considered on this board that 67 Wilt is his peak.

Ok bad analogy. I didn't look and so didn't realize the numbers were that lopsided. I suspect his raw stats were that lopsized in the other direction. I think you probably get what I'm saying though. There are plenty of examples of guys where their statistical peak didn't match their actual peak for reasons like I I've been presenting (e.g. skill development, covering for a weakness, etc).

While, I think all-in-one metrics in the PS can do a better job than given credit for in terms of determining someone's peak, I get the idea that the season a player has fancy look PPG, APG, etc. is not necessarily their peak.

Generally, a player's peak is when the intersection of a player's skill, strength, and athleticism mix just right to form the best player. I think in Lebron's case it is 2009, while you seem to believe it was 2012 or 2013.

[Odinn21]

...

there is a particular comparision i am always curious about simce every one picks jordan there

what makes 1990 jordan superior to 2009 lebron? other than arguments about "flukyness" is a case is struggle to see the angle for jordam 1990 season superiority (whether it be regular season, playoffs, defense, efficiency, overall stats, even teammates quality )

what do you think about that one?

The way I see, I think James' impact in 2009 playoffs is overstated in box numbers and metrics like PIPM. As far as I can tell, his monster +/- footprints are mostly about his regular season. Which is great of course. Otoh, I don't think of his postseason run what one would assume for a 35/9/7 ps run from LeBron James.

---

You have probably already expanded on this in the past knowing your thorough and consistent contributions on this board, but I'm curious to know why you seem to be lower on 2017 James than I think most people seem to be? Just brainstorming, not assuming, but is it because he didn't win, because the Cavs weren't too competitive in the Finals, other reasons I presume?

I'm not crazy high on LeBron James after 2013-14 season in general because it is not just about ps run. I'm probably bigger on rs performances than many, though not necessarily for 'floor raising' label. However, title win probabilities in postseasons are highly dependent on regular season W and some sort of MoV derivatives. To me, it's not just about being present in the playoffs and elevating play level for the playoffs.
It's a combination of rs+ps performances and impacts and weightings for rs and ps are context dependent.

So, in short, it's James' rs production level in general and rs defensive impact level are the reasons. I don't look at solely ps runs.

Btw, I don't think I'm particularly harsh on James' 2017. It's right after his 2014/2016 seasons and I had him in the same tier as Jordan's 1988/1992 seasons. I mean 1988 Jordan vs. 2017 James, 1992 Jordan vs. 2017 James and 2010 James vs. 2017 James are legit comparisons. So, I'm kind of surprised by this question. It's not like I'm saying 2017 James was worse than peak Bryant or Durant, am I?

[VanWest82]

I find it very intriguing how certain posters want to argue that 2009 was an outlier to the point where LeBron's case should be somewhat discredited as a result, but those same posters don't want to point at the 2011 Finals to be an outlier too, because LeBron's case in the ATG rankings would be fortified as a result.

Funny thing is, with Jordan all context is perfectly applied. May as well pretend 1995 never happened.

95 happened just like 2015, 2019, and 2021 happened. No one holds stuff against you when you're hurt or just coming back and don't have your legs unless the argument is maybe you're getting injured too much.

11 Mavs and 07 Spurs series were pretty close so not a complete outlier statistically. But the main thing is why it happened. The why part was not an outlier, it just didn't lead to the level of statistical suppression in 08 and 10 as it did in 07 and 11.

[DQuinn1575]

Seeing as you quoted me directly I will respond.

Wrt all-in-ones, I believe that eventually NBA will release enough game film that we can calculate line up data for all the missing years. I also believe tech and programming will advance to the point where we'll be able to retrofit tracking to these old games, or maybe people will just track things (deflections, charges, shot contests, DFG%, etc.) the old fashioned way, and we'll be able to get young Lebron and MJ's actual RAPTOR for the years in question. At that point, I will be happy to accept your all-in-one argument. Until then, as we've discussed, I'm out on non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated metrics as any kind of real arbiter.

RE 09, I think there's a good case to be made it was the best statistical regular season performance ever. Certainly Wilt has a good case as well as 88 MJ and some others. And if you only look at the stats, Lebron's 09 playoffs was even better. So I completely get how you guys might say it's the GOAT season. Except, as I mentioned in the previous Lebron thread, Lebron himself acknowledges that he was an incomplete player pre-2012, and credits Dwane Casey for exposing that (Thibs and Pop deserve a shout out as well imo) and forcing him to have to improve the obvious deficiencies in his game (mainly shooting and post play) in order to become a complete player who didn't get perennially exposed in the playoffs.

In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias required - something like an Ostrich effect - in order to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

I suppose one could counter with "you can only play who's in front of you" and there is some truth to that. But I can't just pretend like those issues didn't exist just because Lebron got a little lucky with circumstance. I am happy to acknowledge that he was awesome though. But if we're going to just blatantly ignore player flaws then we might as well start calling 04 KG or 94 DRob the GOAT. They have pretty solid statistical cases as well.

Old film wasn't always kept, and not every game was televised during Jordan's time in Chicago. You can track available film, but you're never going to see the complete set.

You'd be surprised how much old footage NBA has in their archives.

I can imagine that from the early 90s that 90%+ of his games are on video - if not at the NBA, then somewhere. But the Bulls games in the early 90s were about 80% televised in Chicago due to various restrictions - and they were by far the highest percentage in the NBA.

[VanWest82]

Wrong. I would prefer 67 Wilt over 62 Wilt because he was better. Besides him being more committed to getting teammates involved, and closing in on his defensive peak, there is plenty of persuasive evidence that was his peak.

Spoiler:

Backpicks BPM (RS)

67 Wilt-8 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-5

Backpicks BPM (PS)

67 Wilt-8.1 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.3

Estimated Impact (RS)
67 Wilt-7.5 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-4.4

Estimated Impact (PS)
67 Wilt-6.7 (Best of his career)

62 Wilt-3.3

Under further scrutiny, your analogy does not hold up. Similar to 09 Lebron, Wilt looks to have peaked in the RS and PS in 67. And furthermore, it is considered on this board that 67 Wilt is his peak.

Ok bad analogy. I didn't look and so didn't realize the numbers were that lopsided. I suspect his raw stats were that lopsized in the other direction. I think you probably get what I'm saying though. There are plenty of examples of guys where their statistical peak didn't match their actual peak for reasons like I I've been presenting (e.g. skill development, covering for a weakness, etc).

While, I think all-in-one metrics in the PS can do a better job than given credit for in terms of determining someone's peak, I get the idea that the season a player has fancy look PPG, APG, etc. is not necessarily their peak.

Generally, a player's peak is when the intersection of a player's skill, strength, and athleticism mix just right to form the best player. I think in Lebron's case it is 2009, while you seem to believe it was 2012 or 2013.

Giannis isn't a bad example. His 19/20 RAPTOR was +8.8 vs. +6.6 for 20/21. I think he's unquestionably a better player now because he finally figured out (this playoffs) that he needed a better mix of post play to compliment his ball handling. He's better at getting position and his moves look more polished down there and so his attack is more varied. I know everyone got hurt and Jrue was a big upgrade but again I don't think it's an accident that he won the year he expanded his game.