[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan

[confucius]

MJ v. Bron... woo okay here we go.

My 12 seasons between the two:
1990-91 Michael Jordan- The greatest peak of all time.
2012-13 LeBron James
- Arguably the top peak, but I have it just below '91 MJ...
1989-90 Michael Jordan
- Another top season of all time, but his '91 playoffs (resulting in a championship) gets the edge.
2008-09 LeBron James- The ultimate carry job?
1988-89 Michael Jordan
1991-92 Michael Jordan
2015-16 LeBron James- OH BLOCKED BY JAMES!
2011-12 LeBron James
2016-17 LeBron James
1992-93 Michael Jordan
1987-88 Michael Jordan
2009-10 LeBron James

I wish I had more time to fully delve into this! But yeah, these are my top 12 seasons between MJ and LeBron!

[jalengreen]

Read through the thread and these rankings seem to have far more variance than previous posts

[uberhikari]

All those people who defended Djoker looking real suspect right now.

Sure, let's discount the entire 2009 season because it is an outlier. Peak seasons, by definition, are outliers because they are the very, very best seasons a player has ever had. What kind of logic suggests we should discount how good a season is because other surrounding seasons weren't as good. That's like discounting '03 Duncan because if we look two years in either direction '03 looks like an outlier in terms of his playoff performance, lol. Ditto for '67 Wilt's playoff performance. Ditto for McGrady's '03 season. I could go on and on...

I don't want to offend you personally but I honestly think you lack reading comprehension or simply didn't read my post. I said I consider 2009 Lebron as one of the ten best seasons of all time by a basketball player. I just said that I slightly hesitate about this season and end up ranking it below other GOAT peaks because of its outlier status. I certainly don't discount it in any way.

And yes 2003 Duncan was an outlier but not to the same extent. 2002 Duncan was very similar and even 2001 wasn't far off and then in 2007 he played even greater defense. And at least with Duncan we can explain some of his decline post-2003 with nagging injuries. Meanwhile 2009 Lebron in terms of playoff numbers is a massive outlier. He never again in his career had within 3.7 points/75 in the postseason and had just one postseason of within 5.6 points/75.

Playoffs Per 75:

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games) ---> ONLY OTHER POSTSEASON >30 POINTS
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (3 games)

I don't care about your conclusion because your reasoning is flawed. You judge players based on what they did and what actually happened. You don't judge players based on whether or not you think what they did can be replicated. The former is about objectivity and the latter is about subjectivity. All you're doing is exposing your biases.

And your biases against LeBron are well known. Just like when you claimed he didn't play good defense in 2009 vs Orlando, then you got proven completely wrong by people who actually watched the series and analyzed LeBron's defense on a play-by-play basis. Did you take back your opinion? Nope. You just pretended like you hadn't made that baseless assertion at all.

[falcolombardi]

Ok bad analogy. I didn't look and so didn't realize the numbers were that lopsided. I suspect his raw stats were that lopsized in the other direction. I think you probably get what I'm saying though. There are plenty of examples of guys where their statistical peak didn't match their actual peak for reasons like I I've been presenting (e.g. skill development, covering for a weakness, etc).

While, I think all-in-one metrics in the PS can do a better job than given credit for in terms of determining someone's peak, I get the idea that the season a player has fancy look PPG, APG, etc. is not necessarily their peak.

Generally, a player's peak is when the intersection of a player's skill, strength, and athleticism mix just right to form the best player. I think in Lebron's case it is 2009, while you seem to believe it was 2012 or 2013.

Giannis isn't a bad example. His 19/20 RAPTOR was +8.8 vs. +6.6 for 20/21. I think he's unquestionably a better player now because he finally figured out (this playoffs) that he needed a better mix of post play to compliment his ball handling. He's better at getting position and his moves look more polished down there and so his attack is more varied. I know everyone got hurt and Jrue was a big upgrade but again I don't think it's an accident that he won the year he expanded his game.

sure, but with 2020 giannis we saw his limitations Exposed by a strong defense

2009 lebron thrived against a strong defense in the playooffs so is a weird example to use

you acredit the weaknesses of 07,09,10,11 lebron to 09 but it doesnt work out because 2007 and 2008 was a pre prime lebron, is like evaluating 88 jordan based on the weakness of 86 or 87 jordan. 2009 was his jump into all timer/generational tier

2010 was excelent and the drop off from 2009 may be explained by the elbow injury or just by how much of a high 2009 was, 2009 post season by the raw numbers is better than 2012 too or 2016 or arguably better than any jordan postseason that matter. no shame in dropping off from that

then you get to 2011 which was a year where he changed his body and lost a step so he couldnt play the same style as in cleveland yet was trying to

by 2012 he recovered some explosión and incorporated new stuff in his game to -compensate- he was not 09-10 lebron anympre

was he more complete? yes, was he less athletic ? also yes but more complete or not lebron never had thw same athletism as 2009-2010 again and athletism can make up for a lot of weaknesses in a player game

[LukaTheGOAT]

Ok bad analogy. I didn't look and so didn't realize the numbers were that lopsided. I suspect his raw stats were that lopsized in the other direction. I think you probably get what I'm saying though. There are plenty of examples of guys where their statistical peak didn't match their actual peak for reasons like I I've been presenting (e.g. skill development, covering for a weakness, etc).

While, I think all-in-one metrics in the PS can do a better job than given credit for in terms of determining someone's peak, I get the idea that the season a player has fancy look PPG, APG, etc. is not necessarily their peak.

Generally, a player's peak is when the intersection of a player's skill, strength, and athleticism mix just right to form the best player. I think in Lebron's case it is 2009, while you seem to believe it was 2012 or 2013.

Giannis isn't a bad example. His 19/20 RAPTOR was +8.8 vs. +6.6 for 20/21. I think he's unquestionably a better player now because he finally figured out (this playoffs) that he needed a better mix of post play to compliment his ball handling. He's better at getting position and his moves look more polished down there and so his attack is more varied. I know everyone got hurt and Jrue was a big upgrade but again I don't think it's an accident that he won the year he expanded his game.

Giannis' in 20-21, dealt with more injuries during the RS, and clearly did not go as hard on defense, and had a lower offensive load. Yes, Giannis was not as impactful during the RS in 20-21, however his PS was better than 2020.

21 Giannis (Playoffs)

AuPM/G-4.7

Backpicks BPM-6.56

RAPTOR-6.6

20 Giannis (Playoffs)

AuPM/G-4.4

Backpicks BPM-6.12

RAPTOR-4.8

For all intents and purposes, Giannis was better in the PS this year than he was in 20. This doesn't really disprove my point, as the metrics I showed, suggest Lebron's RS and PS peaks occurred the very same year (in 09), while in Giannis' case we have a situation similar to MJ, where it does not seem as if the RS and PS peaks necessarily occurred in the same year.

[VanWest82]

2009 lebron thrived against a strong defense in the playooffs so is a weird example to use

This completely ignores how Magic played Lebron which was to let him get his and stay home on the other Cavs.

you acredit the weaknesses of 07,09,10,11 lebron to 09 but it doesnt work out because 2007 and 2008 was a pre prime lebron, is like evaluating 88 jordan based on the weakness of 86 or 87 jordan. 2009 was his jump into all timer/generational tier

The prime / pre-prime stuff is a red herring. The issue was his shooting and lack of a polished post game which derailed him in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

then you get to 2011 which was a year where he changed his body and lost a step so he couldnt play the same style as in cleveland yet was trying to

by 2012 he recovered some explosión and incorporated new stuff in his game to -compensate- he was not 09-10 lebron anympre

was he more complete? yes, was he less athletic ? also yes but more complete or not lebron never had thw same athletism as 2009-2010 again and athletism can make up for a lot of weaknesses in a player game

Let's pretend the reason MJ lost to Pistons every year is because he wasn't tough enough (I don't believe that but I've heard it argued so let's go with it). But then in 91 he isn't really challenged physically (again, we're pretending so let's just go with it) and so he perseveres and wins. Then in 92 and 93 he gets challenged physically again with varying degrees of success and loses, culminating in the 93 loss where he gets so in his head about it that he stops being aggressive because those mean old Knicks broke his brain. If that's how it played out, I assure you I wouldn't be sitting here telling you 91 MJ was the GOAT. I'd be saying that guy wasn't tough enough yet. He just didn't get challenged in 91.

[VanWest82]

For all intents and purposes, Giannis was better in the PS this year than he was in 20. This doesn't really disprove my point, as the metrics I showed, suggest Lebron's RS and PS peaks occurred the very same year (in 09), while in Giannis' case we have a situation similar to MJ, where it does not seem as if the RS and PS peaks necessarily occurred in the same year.

Yes it's a tricky example mainly due to Giannis clearly being hurt / out of shape in the bubble. I hate those playoffs because so many teams got derailed because of that, my Raptors included. I just took their full season numbers which I think does a good job illustrating the disparity in overall impact.

Speaking of Raptors, how about Kyle Lowry? He was +6.6 playoffs the year they won the title and +4.9 in 2017 playoffs. He was unquestionably a better player in 2017. There are numerous examples of this that do work.

[falcolombardi]

2009 lebron thrived against a strong defense in the playooffs so is a weird example to use

This completely ignores how Magic played Lebron which was to let him get his and stay home on the other Cavs.

you acredit the weaknesses of 07,09,10,11 lebron to 09 but it doesnt work out because 2007 and 2008 was a pre prime lebron, is like evaluating 88 jordan based on the weakness of 86 or 87 jordan. 2009 was his jump into all timer/generational tier

The prime / pre-prime stuff is a red herring. The issue was his shooting and lack of a polished post game which derailed him in 07, 08, 10, and 11.

then you get to 2011 which was a year where he changed his body and lost a step so he couldnt play the same style as in cleveland yet was trying to

by 2012 he recovered some explosión and incorporated new stuff in his game to -compensate- he was not 09-10 lebron anympre

was he more complete? yes, was he less athletic ? also yes but more complete or not lebron never had thw same athletism as 2009-2010 again and athletism can make up for a lot of weaknesses in a player game

Let's pretend the reason MJ lost to Pistons every year is because he wasn't tough enough (I don't believe that but I've heard it argued so let's go with it). But then in 91 he isn't really challenged physically (again, we're pretending so let's just go with it) and so he perseveres and wins. Then in 92 and 93 he gets challenged physically again with varying degrees of success and loses, culminating in the 93 loss where he gets so in his head about it that he stops being aggressive because those mean old Knicks broke his brain. If that's how it played out, I assure you I wouldn't be sitting here telling you 91 MJ was the GOAT. I'd be saying that guy wasn't tough enough yet. He just didn't get challenged in 91.

being a good and willing playmaker who can punish help defense/doubles and punish individual coverage all the same is invaluable, 2009 lebron could do both at a super high level so he was forcing orlando to pick their poison, the cavs other players poison just turned out to be pretty weaksauce

i guarantee you the league best defense was not happy someone was scoring 40 a game on them ( in a slow era to boot) in good efficiency, they just scored well enough and stopped the cavs other players well enough to still win the series

do you disagree that lebron had a huge leap in 2009? cause that is somethingh pretty much everyone and every metric agreed with, is a cut off point for lebron career in terms of impact

i am unsure what your jordan example means, 91 jordan may or may not be a better player than 89 amd 90 jordan but the main difference was not jordan himself who was the best player on the court all 3 times, it was thay the rest of the bulls were better and the pistons got worse in 91

lebron from 2009 is a different player on the playoffs than 2010 (elbow injury) and 2011 (weight gain amd athletism lpss) he is not the same player performing to a different level each time

[Djoker]

All those people who defended Djoker looking real suspect right now.

Sure, let's discount the entire 2009 season because it is an outlier. Peak seasons, by definition, are outliers because they are the very, very best seasons a player has ever had. What kind of logic suggests we should discount how good a season is because other surrounding seasons weren't as good. That's like discounting '03 Duncan because if we look two years in either direction '03 looks like an outlier in terms of his playoff performance, lol. Ditto for '67 Wilt's playoff performance. Ditto for McGrady's '03 season. I could go on and on...

I don't want to offend you personally but I honestly think you lack reading comprehension or simply didn't read my post. I said I consider 2009 Lebron as one of the ten best seasons of all time by a basketball player. I just said that I slightly hesitate about this season and end up ranking it below other GOAT peaks because of its outlier status. I certainly don't discount it in any way.

And yes 2003 Duncan was an outlier but not to the same extent. 2002 Duncan was very similar and even 2001 wasn't far off and then in 2007 he played even greater defense. And at least with Duncan we can explain some of his decline post-2003 with nagging injuries. Meanwhile 2009 Lebron in terms of playoff numbers is a massive outlier. He never again in his career had within 3.7 points/75 in the postseason and had just one postseason of within 5.6 points/75.

Playoffs Per 75:

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games) ---> ONLY OTHER POSTSEASON >30 POINTS
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (3 games)

I don't care about your conclusion because your reasoning is flawed. You judge players based on what they did and what actually happened. You don't judge players based on whether or not you think what they did can be replicated. The former is about objectivity and the latter is about subjectivity. All you're doing is exposing your biases.

And your biases against LeBron are well known. Just like when you claimed he didn't play good defense in 2009 vs Orlando, then you got proven completely wrong by people who actually watched the series and analyzed LeBron's defense on a play-by-play basis. Did you take back your opinion? Nope. You just pretended like you hadn't made that baseless assertion at all.

Considering a statistical outlier as such is subjective? Sure but every ranking in this thread is subjective. It's just one man's opinion. Agree with it or disagree.

Re: defense against Orlando in 2009

That thread was first derailed by you calling me out personally and after that several posters came to my defense. I'm sorry if I offended you and I said the same in that thread. I never mean any disrespect and if I ever say anything unreasonable I welcome people to call me out. However I can say without tooting my own horn that I generally know what I'm talking about.

Anyways in that aforementioned thread, two posters (colts18 and sansterre) gave their defensive breakdown of Lebron in Game 1 of that series. colts18 concluded that Lebron was great defensively. sansterre concluded that he was fine but the criticism that he gave up too many open looks to shooters is valid which was what I said about Lebron. And I said that based on my memory of the entire series not even just Game 1.

[falcolombardi]

I don't want to offend you personally but I honestly think you lack reading comprehension or simply didn't read my post. I said I consider 2009 Lebron as one of the ten best seasons of all time by a basketball player. I just said that I slightly hesitate about this season and end up ranking it below other GOAT peaks because of its outlier status. I certainly don't discount it in any way.

And yes 2003 Duncan was an outlier but not to the same extent. 2002 Duncan was very similar and even 2001 wasn't far off and then in 2007 he played even greater defense. And at least with Duncan we can explain some of his decline post-2003 with nagging injuries. Meanwhile 2009 Lebron in terms of playoff numbers is a massive outlier. He never again in his career had within 3.7 points/75 in the postseason and had just one postseason of within 5.6 points/75.

Playoffs Per 75:

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games) ---> ONLY OTHER POSTSEASON >30 POINTS
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (3 games)

I don't care about your conclusion because your reasoning is flawed. You judge players based on what they did and what actually happened. You don't judge players based on whether or not you think what they did can be replicated. The former is about objectivity and the latter is about subjectivity. All you're doing is exposing your biases.

And your biases against LeBron are well known. Just like when you claimed he didn't play good defense in 2009 vs Orlando, then you got proven completely wrong by people who actually watched the series and analyzed LeBron's defense on a play-by-play basis. Did you take back your opinion? Nope. You just pretended like you hadn't made that baseless assertion at all.

Considering a statistical outlier as such is subjective? Sure but every ranking in this thread is subjective. It's just one man's opinion. Agree with it or disagree.

Re: defense against Orlando in 2009

That thread was first derailed by you calling me out personally and after that several posters came to my defense. I'm sorry if I offended you and I said the same in that thread. I never mean any disrespect and if I ever say anything unreasonable I welcome people to call me out. However I can say without tooting my own horn that I generally know what I'm talking about.

Anyways in that aforementioned thread, two posters (colts18 and sansterre) gave their defensive breakdown of Lebron in Game 1 of that series. colts18 concluded that Lebron was great defensively. sansterre concluded that he was fine but the criticism that he gave up too many open looks to shooters is valid which was what I said about Lebron. And I said that based on my memory of the entire series not even just Game 1.

sansterre argument was actually that lebron gave up jumpshots to weaker shooters which is arguably the correct decisión anyway (i think he pointed out ut was mostly 31% shooter rafer alston or a percentage like that) but contested better ones

granted he only analized game 1 if i remember correctly

[VanWest82]

i guarantee you the league best defense was not happy someone was scoring 40 a game on them ( in a slow era to boot) in good efficiency, they just scored well enough and stopped the cavs other players well enough to still win the series

Stan is on record that their plan was to force Lebron to beat them by being a scorer and take away the other Cavs. I'm sure he hoped Bron would miss more than he did but given they beat a 66 win team as the lower seed I suspect he was pretty happy with the result.

do you disagree that lebron had a huge leap in 2009? cause that is somethingh pretty much everyone and every metric agreed with, is a cut off point for lebron career in terms of impact

Yes I thought he made a leap after Olympics. Kobe inspired him to start caring about defense more (my opinion, obv) and his efficiency improved but his jumper still wasn't where it needed to be and he didn't have a post game.

i am unsure what your jordan example means, 91 jordan may or may not be a better player than 89 amd 90 jordan but the main difference was not jordan himself who was the best player on the court all 3 times, it was thay the rest of the bulls were better and the pistons got worse in 91

It was a hypothetical. The point of the example was to say that if a guy is losing for similar reasons except for one year in the middle where those reasons weren't sufficiently challenged it doesn't make sense to pretend like those problems fixed themselves just for that year and that when they resurfaced the following two years it was somehow just bad luck or something.

Anyways, I'm just repeating myself here. I'll let others chime in.

[falcolombardi]

i guarantee you the league best defense was not happy someone was scoring 40 a game on them ( in a slow era to boot) in good efficiency, they just scored well enough and stopped the cavs other players well enough to still win the series

Stan is on record that their plan was to force Lebron to beat them by being a scorer and take away the other Cavs. I'm sure he hoped Bron would miss more than he did but given they beat a 66 win team as the lower seed I suspect he was pretty happy with the result.

do you disagree that lebron had a huge leap in 2009? cause that is somethingh pretty much everyone and every metric agreed with, is a cut off point for lebron career in terms of impact

Yes I thought he made a leap after Olympics. Kobe inspired him to start caring about defense more (my opinion, obv) and his efficiency improved but his jumper still wasn't where it needed to be and he didn't have a post game.

i am unsure what your jordan example means, 91 jordan may or may not be a better player than 89 amd 90 jordan but the main difference was not jordan himself who was the best player on the court all 3 times, it was thay the rest of the bulls were better and the pistons got worse in 91

It was a hypothetical. The point of the example was to say that if a guy is losing for similar reasons except for one year in the middle where those reasons weren't sufficiently challenged it doesn't make sense to pretend like those problems fixed themselves just for that year and that when they resurfaced the following two years it was somehow just bad luck or something.

Anyways, I'm just repeating myself here. I'll let others chime in.

i feel like the "problem" is that your approach to the topic is fundamentales different thsn most of us

you evaluate how good you think 2009 lebron was in actual ability, we evaluate how good we thinle was in actual play

both aproaches with pros and cons, but for purposes ir tjis thread which ask us to evaluate seasons on their own merit, i think the latter approach is more adequate

the former feels a bit too hipothetical based for me

to give an example imagine davis in the 2022 playoffs has a incredible run, just as good at everythingh as 2020 bubble, but his jumper goes cold

would we say he was just as good in 2022 because how junpshoot im 2020 was a outlier? for the purposes of evaluating impact 2020 would be clearly more valuable so it would make little sense to pretend both those seasons were equal when they were not

that is how i feel about the outlker/fluke argument, fluke or not it still happened

[Owly]

i guarantee you the league best defense was not happy someone was scoring 40 a game on them ( in a slow era to boot) in good efficiency, they just scored well enough and stopped the cavs other players well enough to still win the series

Stan is on record that their plan was to force Lebron to beat them by being a scorer and take away the other Cavs. I'm sure he hoped Bron would miss more than he did but given they beat a 66 win team as the lower seed I suspect he was pretty happy with the result.

I suspect he wasn't that happy with the results at that end.

Cleveland's series 110.6 Ortg is much closer to their RS 112.4 than Orlando's RS defensive 101.9 (the mean of the two being 107.15). Based purely on that end, Cleveland exceeded RS based expectations, and those expectations would have had Cleveland winning. It's the other end where there was a problem for Cleveland and a triumph for Orlando.

Fwiw (and for me little, without comprehensive rigorous analysis after, and once you've done that the coach's comments matter lest apart from informing the analysis) Van Gundy has also apparently stated

"And we didn't try to let LeBron get his, he just got it," Van Gundy said, speaking about the 2009 series. "He got us for 36 a game. Believe me, we didn't go in and say we're letting LeBron get his, we tried like hell to play him."

which, again, fwiw, runs counter to your statement (post 48)

You can choose to pretend like that wasn't the case in 09 just because Stan et. al decided to let him get his. I can't ignore that.

[Cavsfansince84]

i feel like the "problem" is that your approach to the topic is fundamentales different thsn most of us

you evaluate how good you think 2009 lebron was in actual ability, we evaluate how good we thinle was in actual play

both aproaches with pros and cons, but for purposes ir tjis thread which ask us to evaluate seasons on their own merit, i think the latter approach is more adequate

the former feels a bit too hipothetical based for me

to give an example imagine davis in the 2022 playoffs has a incredible run, just as good at everythingh as 2020 bubble, but his jumper goes cold

would we say he was just as good in 2022 because how junpshoot im 2020 was a outlier? for the purposes of evaluating impact 2020 would be clearly more valuable so it would make little sense to pretend both those seasons were equal when they were not

that is how i feel about the outlker/fluke argument, fluke or not it still happened

Also, I think its fair to look at shorter playoff runs in that way. Such as with Hakeem in 89, he had what is for a small sample size one of the greatest playoff series of all time or some of what we've seen in recent years with guys like Mitchell or Murray where its a series or two. Generally speaking when a guy does it over 3 or more series I am less likely to dismiss it as a fluke and here's the other thing, is that he did it after having what could be considered the best rs of all time or easily top 5. So it's not like Hakeem having a decent season by his standards before his 89 playoff.
LeBron combined what might be the best rs with the best ps of all time in the same year and tbh LeBron that year was like a man possessed. Everyone in the league was talking about him having made the leap to MJ level or higher that year and then he went out was at his most aggressive in those playoffs. I think there were other factors which led to him not being able to replicate that sort of playoff run in 10 and 11 which go beyond him having some fatal shooting flaw. There were chemistry issues in 10 and then the whole new team, added weight factors in 2011 where he wasn't as ball dominant. I don't think it detracts from what he did in 09 when his body changed and he wasn't playing as aggressive.

[PistolPeteJR]

...

there is a particular comparision i am always curious about simce every one picks jordan there

what makes 1990 jordan superior to 2009 lebron? other than arguments about "flukyness" is a case is struggle to see the angle for jordam 1990 season superiority (whether it be regular season, playoffs, defense, efficiency, overall stats, even teammates quality )

what do you think about that one?

The way I see, I think James' impact in 2009 playoffs is overstated in box numbers and metrics like PIPM. As far as I can tell, his monster +/- footprints are mostly about his regular season. Which is great of course. Otoh, I don't think of his postseason run what one would assume for a 35/9/7 ps run from LeBron James.

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You have probably already expanded on this in the past knowing your thorough and consistent contributions on this board, but I'm curious to know why you seem to be lower on 2017 James than I think most people seem to be? Just brainstorming, not assuming, but is it because he didn't win, because the Cavs weren't too competitive in the Finals, other reasons I presume?

I'm not crazy high on LeBron James after 2013-14 season in general because it is not just about ps run. I'm probably bigger on rs performances than many, though not necessarily for 'floor raising' label. However, title win probabilities in postseasons are highly dependent on regular season W and some sort of MoV derivatives. To me, it's not just about being present in the playoffs and elevating play level for the playoffs.
It's a combination of rs+ps performances and impacts and weightings for rs and ps are context dependent.

So, in short, it's James' rs production level in general and rs defensive impact level are the reasons. I don't look at solely ps runs.

Btw, I don't think I'm particularly harsh on James' 2017. It's right after his 2014/2016 seasons and I had him in the same tier as Jordan's 1988/1992 seasons. I mean 1988 Jordan vs. 2017 James, 1992 Jordan vs. 2017 James and 2010 James vs. 2017 James are legit comparisons. So, I'm kind of surprised by this question. It's not like I'm saying 2017 James was worse than peak Bryant or Durant, am I?

I'm more looking at it when compared to the other contenders for James' peak seasons, not as much in comparison to other players'. You answered my question at the beginning of your post what with the weight you attribute to the RS compared to the weight most seem to attribute to the RS nowadays.

[falcolombardi]

my ranking keeps changing every time i think about it so i will go with what i am considering right now and hope it doesnt look dumb later

1-2009 lebron: the best combination of regular season and playoffs i can think of, a notch above 91 jordan or 67 wilt for me

2- 1991 jordan: virtuslly indistinguible for me from 1990 but i give this the benefit of the doubt cause he was 1 year more experienced without apparent athletism loss

3-1990 jordan: best all around season (O and D, post season and reg season) along with 91

4-2012 lebron: if his jumper had not gone cold in the playoffs i may put this in the top 1 or 2, more skilled and experienced than 2009 but the explosivity loss and weaker shooting make me prefer 2009

there is a bit of a drop off for me after these 4 that i consider great in all 4 aspects (O and D, reg season amd postseason)

5-2016 lebron: worst regular season that 13, 10,92,89,88 but imo the best playoffs left

6- 1993 jordan: the best playoffs left for jordan while still a great regular season

7-1989 jordan: i consider it a bit worse than his 90-91 peak, neither the regular season or playoffs stands out above the seasons above for me

8- 2013 lebron: imo the best regular season left (maybe top 4 between bot) the playoffs is still strong besides half of the 2013 finals which is why i dropped it so low

9-1992 jordan: his struggles vs knicks are as much of a "black mark" ( VERY relative black mark) as 2013 finals to me, and i think 2013 is a better regular season

10- 2017 lebron: a bit better in offense than 2016 but a lot worse in defense, led a legitimately goat tier offense and may be the best offensive playoffs run in the whole list

11-1988 jordan: as good of a regular season as 89 jordan imo but i think his playoffs were not as good, i prefer lebron 13 reg season and post season too

12-2010 lebron: virtuslly as good of a regular season as 2009 but dropped from incredible to "merely" really damn good in the playoffs which i value highly (and the competition is very stiff here)


(also considered 2020,2018,2014,96,97) this last spot was tough to pick

[VanWest82]

Fwiw (and for me little, without comprehensive rigorous analysis after, and once you've done that the coach's comments matter lest apart from informing the analysis) Van Gundy has also apparently stated

"And we didn't try to let LeBron get his, he just got it," Van Gundy said, speaking about the 2009 series. "He got us for 36 a game. Believe me, we didn't go in and say we're letting LeBron get his, we tried like hell to play him."

which, again, fwiw, runs counter to your statement (post 48)

You can choose to pretend like that wasn't the case in 09 just because Stan et. al decided to let him get his. I can't ignore that.

It would appear he's all over the place in what he's said. I've heard him in interviews say he preferred not to send extra guys. He seems to be saying that in this article. https://www.mlive.com/pistons/2015/11/by_making_lebron_james_a_score.html

LeBron James will get his statistics but some are more meaningful than others, and throughout Stan Van Gundy's coaching career, this is how he has guarded the Cleveland Cavaliers' superstar, straight-up, no double-teams, limit his playmaking, let him try to make shots.

"To me, that's been the better way to play his teams," Van Gundy said.

Some nights, James does make shots. Van Gundy recalled back to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals, when he was coaching Orlando and James was in his first run with the Cavaliers.

There's also the actual game tape which shows Magic generally played him straight up way more than Celtics, Spurs, or Mavs. I still give him credit though. He was awesome in those games. I think what Stan meant in that quote is it's not like they gave him a red carpet to the hoop. They still tried to defend him they just didn't do it with zone or extra defenders to cut off driving lanes.

[falcolombardi]

i am very surprised this thread didnt get that much activity

i honestly expected it to hit like 10 pages lol

[Dutchball97]

LeBron in 09 was definitely a big statistical outlier but we shouldn't forget star players often post their best statistical years, while playing on relatively bad teams. We can acknowledge however that the biggest carryjobs aren't always the best overall performances by a player with probably the most famous example being that Wilt was simply a better player in 67 than he was in 62 and 64. Incorporating your skillset that was formed by doing everything on a bad team with good players on a good team can be a tough transition. LeBron in 2011 is probably the bsst example of this as he struggled to find a role that fit him on a stacked team.

I respect people who have 09 LeBron as their top season but I personally find it inferior to his 2012 and 2013 seasons. I'd even argue he was overall a better player in 2016 and 2017 as well but because he took it easy in the regular season those seasons are overall probably still a bit less impressive. The reason why I am so confident in 1991 MJ being the best single season ever is due to his insane statistical dominance on a great team. He dominated the game, while still seamlessly fitting in with one of the best teams ever on the way to an incredibly impressive title campaign.

1. Michael Jordan, 1991
2. Michael Jordan, 1990
3. LeBron James, 2012
4. LeBron James, 2013
5. Michael Jordan, 1989
6. LeBron James, 2009
7. Michael Jordan, 1993
8. LeBron James, 2016
9. Michael Jordan, 1992
10. LeBron James, 2017
11. Michael Jordan, 1988
12. LeBron James, 2010

I think MJ has the clear best prime ever but if anyone can put up a real challenge it is LeBron and I think that it is reflected in these rankings. I don't think there is any other player I'd have a 6-6 split with MJ in top 12 season rankings.

[uberhikari]

I don't want to offend you personally but I honestly think you lack reading comprehension or simply didn't read my post. I said I consider 2009 Lebron as one of the ten best seasons of all time by a basketball player. I just said that I slightly hesitate about this season and end up ranking it below other GOAT peaks because of its outlier status. I certainly don't discount it in any way.

And yes 2003 Duncan was an outlier but not to the same extent. 2002 Duncan was very similar and even 2001 wasn't far off and then in 2007 he played even greater defense. And at least with Duncan we can explain some of his decline post-2003 with nagging injuries. Meanwhile 2009 Lebron in terms of playoff numbers is a massive outlier. He never again in his career had within 3.7 points/75 in the postseason and had just one postseason of within 5.6 points/75.

Playoffs Per 75:

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games) ---> ONLY OTHER POSTSEASON >30 POINTS
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (3 games)

I don't care about your conclusion because your reasoning is flawed. You judge players based on what they did and what actually happened. You don't judge players based on whether or not you think what they did can be replicated. The former is about objectivity and the latter is about subjectivity. All you're doing is exposing your biases.

And your biases against LeBron are well known. Just like when you claimed he didn't play good defense in 2009 vs Orlando, then you got proven completely wrong by people who actually watched the series and analyzed LeBron's defense on a play-by-play basis. Did you take back your opinion? Nope. You just pretended like you hadn't made that baseless assertion at all.

Considering a statistical outlier as such is subjective? Sure but every ranking in this thread is subjective. It's just one man's opinion. Agree with it or disagree.

Re: defense against Orlando in 2009

That thread was first derailed by you calling me out personally and after that several posters came to my defense. I'm sorry if I offended you and I said the same in that thread. I never mean any disrespect and if I ever say anything unreasonable I welcome people to call me out. However I can say without tooting my own horn that I generally know what I'm talking about.

Anyways in that aforementioned thread, two posters (colts18 and sansterre) gave their defensive breakdown of Lebron in Game 1 of that series. colts18 concluded that Lebron was great defensively. sansterre concluded that he was fine but the criticism that he gave up too many open looks to shooters is valid which was what I said about Lebron. And I said that based on my memory of the entire series not even just Game 1.

When you want to evaluate how good a player was, you look at the objective facts. You ask what did the player do? What actually happened? And how good were they based on what they did and what happened? You don't judge players based on whether or not what they did and what happened can be replicated or was replicated. Asking about replication is your subjective opinion. It has absolutely nothing to do with what a player did and what actually happened. Replication has never been a standard for evaluation on this board. And the only reason you're bringing it up is because you think it helps Jordan in a comparison with LeBron.

colts18 didn't say LeBron's defense was "great". Here's what he actually said:

I made two posts on LeBron's defense in that series in the past. The first one came from me rewatching Game 1 of the series. IMO, LeBron had an amazing defensive game. One of the best I've ever seen from a perimeter player.

Here's colts18 again:

What impressed me the most was his defensive skills. He was a legitimate DPOY type of defender. His quickness allowed him to easily closeout and make his rotations. LeBron's role on defense was akin to a Free safety than a Cornerback. The Cavs strategy featured LeBron on a weak Offensive player(Alston) so that he could focus on his help defense. He would roam around as the primary help defender covering up all of the gaps in the Cavs defense.

So, again, you're downplaying LeBron.

sansterre did not say that LeBron was just fine. Here's what he actually said about LeBron in the:

On the subject of the original post, LeBron in 2009 posted a +2.8 DRAPM in the regular season. That hardly led the league but it was better than any non-big except for Artest and Marco Jaric, and it was around the level of Andre Iguodala and Tony Allen. So LeBron's defensive performance in the regular season, according to RAPM, was Top 5 for non-bigs, which is pretty extraordinary. I cannot speak to the playoffs, but it seems unlikely that he'd implode after putting up what is clearly an outstanding defensive season.

Here's sansterre again:

Overall: I was surprised by LeBron's defensive impact. He was hardly perfect - he missed a steal attempt, he overplayed a closeout and he seemed to take several minutes off. But he generally seemed to be in good position and I was very impressed by his rim protection and disruption of passing lanes. He wasn't having the impact of a Mutombo or a Dwight Howard, but he seemed clearly (to me) to be playing at the upper percentiles of defensive play from the wing position (of course, playing free safety opened him up making those plays while others had to play their assignments more tightly, so that needs to be taken into account).

The accusation that LeBron conceded reasonably open looks was totally valid . . . but clearly intentional given that LeBron played every other shooter far more tightly. The Cavs may well have surmised that a somewhat open Alston three was a better choice for them than a Howard post-up or some other Magic player taking a three. That's speculative of course.

Again, this was just one game of a six-game series.

So, again, you're downplaying LeBron.

Again, your biases are so apparent that when it comes to LeBron you shouldn't be taken seriously. You use flawed evaluation methods and you blatantly misrepresent what other people say.